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1.
Long (>30 years) monthly records of relative sea-level heights from tide gauges in the Baltic sea are analyzed. Time series clustering based on forecast densities is applied in order to describe regional sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea in terms of future relative heights. The tide gauge records are clustered on the basis of forecasts at 3-month and 6-month horizons. For the 3-month horizon, the results of the cluster analysis show a fairly spatial coherency in terms of grouping together locations from the same sub-basin, with the northern records in the Bothnian Sea and Gulf of Finland clustering together, followed by the tide gauges in the Baltic Proper and lastly the southernmost stations in the western Baltic. For the 6-month horizon, the results show a higher degree of homogeneity between different locations, but a clear separation between the stations at the Baltic entrance and the tide gauges inside the Baltic basin. Moreover, when considering detrended records, reflecting mainly the seasonal cycle, the clustering results are more homogeneous and suggest a distinct response of coastal sea-level in spring and in summer.  相似文献   

2.
Long-term hourly data from 35 tide gauge stations, including 15 stations in the Gulf of Finland, were used to examine tidal sea level oscillations of the Baltic Sea. High-resolution spectral analysis revealed the well-defined fine structure of tidal peaks with diurnal peaks at most stations being higher than semidiurnal. At some stations (e.g., Narva, Daugava, and Wladyslawowo), high frequency radiational tidal peaks with periods multiple of the solar day (3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 cpd) were detected; the respective oscillations are supposed to be caused by seabreeze winds. Harmonic analysis of tides for individual yearly sea level series followed by vector averaging over the entire observational period was used to estimate the amplitudes and phases of 16 tidal constituents. The maximum tidal oscillations of 17–19 cm were found to be observed in the Gulf of Finland and, first of all, in Neva Bay (in the head of the gulf). Diurnal or mixed diurnal tides are predominant in almost the entire Baltic Sea. The comparison of the observed tides with those theoretically computed showed that the existing numerical models of the main tidal harmonics generally quite accurately reproduce the structure of the tides in the Baltic Sea except for some regions of the Gulf of Bothnia.  相似文献   

3.
Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15–125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994–2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the “simulated” and “observed” extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of “moderate” magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.  相似文献   

4.
The Baltic Sea Level Project is an international scientific observation program to unify the vertical datums of the countries of the Baltic Sea with GPS measurements. In total, 35 tide gauges on shores and islands of the Baltic were occupied with GPS in 1993. After computing a new gravimetric geoid over the Baltic Sea, it was possible to unify the datums as well as to calculate the orthometric heights and the sea surface topography values for the tide gauge stations. The results obtained are shown.  相似文献   

5.
The Subtropical Atlantic Climate Study (STACS) is a subprogram in the NOAA climate program designed to access the feasibility of monitoring horizontal fluxes in the Gulf Stream system off Florida. Transport in the Florida Current fluctuates on time scales which are reflected in sea level records monitored at tide gauges. Geodetic leveling, connecting tide gauges along the east coast of the United States, allows intercomparison of sea level records alongstream, but the cross-stream and alongstream records in the Bahamas and Cuba are not connected. In this study, various methods to determine absolute sea level differences across the Straits of Florida between Miami, Florida and Cat Cay, Bahamas, a part of the STACS area, were investigated; the desired accuracy of the sea level difference is ± 1 cm. This study indicates that a combination of dense gravity data with satellite altimeter (TOPEX and GEOSAT) data in the STACS area could provide a ± 1 cm absolute sea level difference accuracy across the Straits of Florida. This paper also provides discussion of other conventional methods.  相似文献   

6.
We have computed estimates of the rate of vertical land motion in the Mediterranean Sea from differences of sea level heights measured by the TOPEX/Poseidon radar altimeter and by a set of tide gauge stations. The comparison of data at 16 tide gauges, using both hourly data from local datasets and monthly data from the PSMSL dataset, shows a general agreement, significant differences are found at only one location. Differences of near-simultaneous, monthly and deseasoned monthly sea level height time-series have been considered in order to reduce the error in the estimated linear-term. In a subset of 23 tide gauge stations the mean accuracy of the estimated vertical rates is 2.3 ± 0.8 mm/yr. Results for various stations are in agreement with estimates of vertical land motion from geodetic methods. A comparison with vertical motion estimated by GPS at four locations shows a mean difference of ?0.04 ± 1.8 mm/yr, however the length of the GPS time-series and the number of locations are too small to draw general conclusions.  相似文献   

7.
We have computed estimates of the rate of vertical land motion in the Mediterranean Sea from differences of sea level heights measured by the TOPEX/Poseidon radar altimeter and by a set of tide gauge stations. The comparison of data at 16 tide gauges, using both hourly data from local datasets and monthly data from the PSMSL dataset, shows a general agreement, significant differences are found at only one location. Differences of near-simultaneous, monthly and deseasoned monthly sea level height time-series have been considered in order to reduce the error in the estimated linear-term. In a subset of 23 tide gauge stations the mean accuracy of the estimated vertical rates is 2.3 ± 0.8 mm/yr. Results for various stations are in agreement with estimates of vertical land motion from geodetic methods. A comparison with vertical motion estimated by GPS at four locations shows a mean difference of -0.04 ± 1.8 mm/yr, however the length of the GPS time-series and the number of locations are too small to draw general conclusions.  相似文献   

8.
Two typhoon surges generated during July–August 1978 are investigated numerically with the use of a vertically-integrated finite-difference model of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. The hindcast scheme involves processing pressure data from weather charts to provide the necessary meteorological forcing to a sea model that computes the response in terms of water levels and currents. Computed residuals are compared with hourly records from selected tide gauges (Inchon, Kunsan, Mokpo, Jeju and Yeosu) along the coast of Korea. Some of the preliminary results are presented and discussed.  相似文献   

9.
The long-term variation and seasonal variation of sea level have a notable effect on the calculation of engineering water level. Such an effect is first analyzed in this paper. The maximal amplitude of inter-annual anomaly of monthly mean sea level along the China coast is larger than 60 cm. Both the storm surge disaster and cold wave disaster are seasonal disasters in various regions, so the water level corresponding to the 1% of the cumulative frequency in the cumulative frequency curve of hourly water level data for different seasons in various sea areas is different from design water level, for example, the difference between them reaches maximum in June, July and August for northern sea area, and maximum in September, October and November for Southern China Sea. The hourly water level data of 19 gauge stations along the China coast are analyzed. Firstly, the annual mean sea level for every station is obtained; secondly, linear chan ging rates of annual mean sea level are obtained with the stochasti  相似文献   

10.
1 .IntroductionTheglobalairtemperatureroseabout 0 .5～ 0 .6°Coverthepast 2 0thcentury ,andtheglobalmeansealevelincreasedbyabout2 0cmduringtheperiod .Theregionalmeansealevelriseswiththerisingglobalmeansealevel.Zuoetal.( 1 997)indicatedthatthemeanrisingrateofabsolutemeansealevelalongtheChinacoastontheassumptionofunifiedisostaticdatumis 2mm a .Woodworth( 1 999)analyzedsealevelspanning 1 76 8tothepresentinLiverpool,andobtainedaseculartrendforheperiodupto 1 880of0 .39± 0 .1 7mm a ,andatrendfort…  相似文献   

11.
The study focused on the evaluation of probable changes in the severity of sea ice conditions occurring in 3 selected areas of the Baltic Sea: the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Finland and the Southern Baltic Sea up to the year 2100. The areas have been chosen due to the high intensity of marine traffic (the Gulfs??of Bothnia and of Finland) and due to differences in sea ice conditions; winters in the Gulf of Bothnia were characterized as the most severe, whereas in the Southern Baltic were classified as the mildest ones. Consequently, three scenarios were taken into account in the study: A2 (slow rate of global economic development, market scenario), A1B (regional scenario, rapid economic development, with ecological priorities), B1 (sustainable, median economic development with strong ecological priorities), all three constructed on the basis of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES models of greenhouse gas emission). The probable changes of sea ice conditions expressed as severity index S were calculated from these models. The main results of the investigation are as follows, the variety of sea ice conditions occurring in specific regions of the Baltic will remain stable (i.e. the most severe winter conditions will still occur in Gulf of Bothnia, while the mildest in the Southern Baltic Sea). The most significant changes are likely to occur in the Southern Baltic, where some winters without ice cover in the Vistula Lagoon may happen. Nonetheless, some extremely severe winters will occur and also within specific seasons more winters with a lower number of days with ice will occur.  相似文献   

12.
Changes in the height of the ocean can be described through the relative and absolute sea level changes depending on the geodetic reference the sea level records are related to. Satellite altimetry provides absolute sea level (ASL) measurements related to the global geodetic reference, whereas tide gauges provide relative sea level (RSL) measurements related to the adjacent land. This study aims at computing the ASL surfaces for different time epochs from combined satellite altimeter and tide gauge records. A method of sea level data fusion is proposed to enable modeling of the impact of present and future sea level changes on the coast. Sea surface modeling was investigated for ten different gridding methods commonly used for the interpolation of altimeter data over the open ocean and extrapolation over the coastal zones. The performance of gridding methods was assessed based on the comparison of the gridded altimeter data and corrected tide gauge measurements. Finally, the sea level surfaces related to the GRS80 global reference ellipsoid were computed for the Mediterranean Sea over the altimeter period. In addition, the current sea level trends were estimated from both sea level measurements.  相似文献   

13.
Sea level changes in the Baltic Sea are dominated by internal, short-term variations that are mostly caused by the ephemeral nature of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic area. Tides are small and their influence decreases from western parts of the Baltic Sea to the Baltic Proper. Superimposed to the large short-term sea level changes (up to few decimeters from day to day) are seasonal and interannual variations (centimeters to decimeters). This study focuses on the comparison of sea surface heights obtained from observations and from a high resolution oceanographic model of the Baltic Sea. From this comparison, the accuracy of the modeled sea surface variations is evaluated, which is a necessary precondition for the further use of the oceanographic model in geodetic applications. The model reproduces all observed Baltic sea level variations very reliably with an accuracy of 5 to 9 cm (rms) for short-term variations (up to 2 months) and 8 cm (rms) for long-term variations (>2 months). An additional improvement of the model can be attained by including long-period sea level variations of the North Sea. The model performs well also in the case of extreme sea level events, as is shown for a major storm surge that occurred at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea in November 1995.  相似文献   

14.
使用卫星测高、海表温度以及中国沿海台站水位等数据，分析研究了ENSO对中国近海海平面影响的区域特征。结果表明:（1）赤道东太平洋海表温度与我国近海海平面存在显著的遥相关关系。相关系数自北至南呈梯度递增，分为3个影响明显的区域，分别是渤、黄海、东海和南海海域。南海海平面异常与赤道东太平洋区域的海表温度异常相关性最强，大部分区域的相关系数超过了0.6；东海海域海平面异常与赤道东太平洋海表温度的遥相关系数弱于南海，强于渤、黄海，大部分海域的遥相关系数超过了0.4；渤、黄海海域海平面异常与赤道东太平洋海表温度的遥相关系数最弱，但是大部分海域的遥相关系数超过了0.3，通过了显著性检验。（2）中国沿海海平面的季节变化与ENSO有明显的相关关系，且影响范围具有明显的区域特征，以长江口和台湾海峡为分界线分为长江口以北、长江口到台湾海峡以及台湾海峡以南3个区域。海平面的年振幅在厄尔尼诺年均出现偏低的现象，并且年振幅的极小值均出现在厄尔尼诺年。另外，海平面的年振幅对厄尔尼诺事件的响应与其强弱有关，在强厄尔尼诺事件中，响应区域和幅度较大，弱事件中，响应区域和幅度偏小。（3）南海、东海和渤、黄海这3个区域沿海的海平面变化均存在4~7 a的显著振荡周期，说明这3个区域的海平面均受ENSO的影响。其中，南海7 a周期的振荡幅度最大，约为1.5 cm；东海7 a周期的振荡幅度次之，约为1.3 cm；渤、黄海6 a周期的振荡幅度最小，不到1 cm。  相似文献   

15.
The statistical analysis of the long-term data on the variability of the Baltic Sea level has revealed the complicated character of the wave field structure. The wave field formed by the variable winds and the disturbances of the atmospheric pressure in the Baltic Sea is a superposition of standing oscillations with random phases. The cross spectral analysis of the synchronous observation series of the level in the Gulf of Finland has shown that the nodal lines of the standing dilatational waves are clearly traced with frequencies corresponding to the distance from the nodal line to the top of the gulf (a quarter of the wave length). Several areas of the water basin with clearly expressed resonant properties may be distinguished: the Gulfs of Finland, Riga, and Bothnia, Neva Bay, etc. The estimations of the statistical correlation of the sea level oscillations with the variation of the wind and atmospheric pressure indicate the dominant role of the zonal wind component during the formation of the floods in the Gulf of Finland. The probable reason for the extreme floods in St. Petersburg may be the resonance rocking of the eigenmode oscillations corresponding to the basic fundamental seiche mode of the Gulf of Finland with a period of 27 h when the repeated atmospheric disturbances in the Baltic Sea occur with a period of 1–2 days.  相似文献   

16.
Long-term hourly data from 12 tide gauge stations were used to examine the character of tidal oscillations in the Caspian Sea. Diurnal and semidiurnal tidal peaks are well-defined in sea level spectra in the Middle and South Caspian basins. High-resolution spectral analysis revealed that the diurnal sea level oscillations in the Middle Caspian Basin have a gravitational origin, while those in the South Caspian Basin are mainly caused by radiational effects: the amplitude of diurnal radiational harmonic S1 is much higher than those of gravitational harmonics О1, P1, and K1. In the North Caspian Basin, there are no gravitational tides and only weak radiational tides are observed. A semidiurnal type of tide is predominant in the Middle and South Caspian basins. Harmonic analysis of the tides for individual annual series with subsequent vector averaging over the entire observational period was applied to estimate the mean amplitudes and phases of major tidal constituents. The amplitude of the M2 harmonic reaches 5.4 cm in the South Caspian Basin (at Aladga). A maximum tidal range of 21 cm was found at the Aladga station in the southeastern part of the Caspian Sea, whereas the tidal range in the western part of the South Caspian Basin varies from 5 to 10 cm.  相似文献   

17.
An attempt is made to infer the global mean sea level(GMSL) from a global tide gauge network and frame the problem in terms of the limitations of the network. The network,owing to its limited number of gauges and poor geographical distribution complicated further by unknown vertical land movements,is ill suited for measuring the GMSL. Yet it remains the only available source for deciphering the sea level rise over the last 100 a. The poor sampling characteristics of the tide gauge network have necessitated the usage of statistical inference. A linear optimal estimator based on the Gauss-Markov theorem seems well suited for the job. This still leaves a great deal of freedom in choosing the estimator. GMSL is poorly correlated with tide gauge measurements because the small uniform rise and fall of sea level are masked by the far larger regional signals. On the other hand,a regional mean sea level(RMSL) is much better correlated with the corresponding regional tide gauge measurements. Since the GMSL is simply the sum of RMSLs,the problem is transformed to one of estimating the RMSLs from regional tide gauge measurements. Specifically for the annual heating and cooling cycle,we separate the global ocean into 10-latitude bands and compute for each 10-latitude band the estimator that predicts its RMSL from tide gauges within. In the future,the statistical correlations are to be computed using satellite altimetry. However,as a first attempt,we have used numerical model outputs instead to isolate the problem so as not to get distracted by altimetry or tide gauge errors. That is,model outputs for sea level at tide gauge locations of the GLOSS network are taken as tide gauge measurements,and the RMSLs are computed from the model outputs. The results show an estimation error of approximately 2 mm versus an error of 2.7 cm if we simply average the tide gauge measurements to estimate the GMSL,caused by the much larger regional seasonal cycle and mesoscale variation plaguing the individual tide gauges. The numerical model,Los Alamos POP model Run 11 lasting 3 1/4 a,is one of the best eddy-resolving models and does a good job simulating the annual heating and cooling cycle,but it has no global or regional trend. Thus it has basically succeeded in estimating the seasonal cycle of the GMSL. This is still going to be the case even if we use the altimetry data because the RMSLs are dominated by the seasonal cycle in relatively short periods. For estimating the GMSL trend,longer records and low-pass filtering to isolate the statistical relations that are of interest. Here we have managed to avoid the much larger regional seasonal cycle plaguing individual tide gauges to get a fairly accurate estimate of the much smaller seasonal cycle in the GMSL so as to enhance the prospect of an accurate estimate of GMSL trend in short periods. One should reasonably expect to be able to do the same for longer periods during which tide gauges are plagued by much larger regional interannual(e. g.,ENSO events) and decadal sea level variations. In the future,with the availability of the satellite altimeter data,we could use the same approach adopted here to estimate the seasonal variations of GMSL and RMSL accurately and remove these seasonal variations accordingly so as to get a more accurate statistical inference between the tide gauge data and the RMSLs(therefore the GMSL) at periods longer than 1 a,i. e.,the long-term trend.  相似文献   

18.
The scarcity of tide gauges in a global scale and the variability of the tidal levels along contiguous coasts mainly due to changing hydrographic conditions make the determination of tidal levels, especially of the Mean Sea Level, not an easy task. Determination of such levels with a precision of about 10 cm, necessary for most coastal engineering works, is usually based on records of temporary tide gauges or on geomorphological techniques. In this paper we present an alternative approach permitting to accurately identify tidal levels with a precision suitable for civil engineering applications based on biological observations on rocky shores, including breakwaters and quays. More specifically, we present evidence that the biological zonation, i.e. the distribution of coastal species in well-defined sub-horizontal belts, is practically insensitive to seasonal and other small-scale fluctuations of the sea level and is clearly related to certain levels, mostly the Mean Low Water (MLW). This approach, somewhat similar to what has been used in the past (for instance for the determination of the geodetic vertical datum in the Republic of Venice, Italy, till approximately AD 1800), permits direct determination of the Mean Sea Level or of other tidal levels on the basis of biological observations without statistical analyses of tide-gauge records with an accuracy of 5–10 cm, especially in microtidal, low-energy coasts.  相似文献   

19.
Long-term current measurements were carried out near the Soya Strait in the Okhotsk Sea during a period from February 1980 to September 1982. The data were divided into five segments, each being 150 days long, and the tidal ellipse parameters of major axis, minor axis, orientation, and phase for the four major constituents (M2, S2, K1 and O1 tides) were calculated at each segment. The major axis of the mean tidal ellipse averaged over five segments was 29.9 cm sec–1 for O1 tide, 28.3 cm sec–1 for K1 tide, 10.4 cm sec–1 for M2 tide, and 3.7 cm sec–1 for S2 tide. The phase and orientation of the tidal ellipse were much stable. But, the root mean square deviations of the major axis reached 20% of the mean values for all four constituents. The tidal currents estimated from the sea level records at Wakkanai and Esashi along the Hokkaido coast in the Okhotsk Sea show that their amplitudes and phases are in good agreement with the observed ones for all four constituents.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

We studied geoid validation using ship-borne global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) on the Baltic Sea. We obtained geoid heights by combining GNSS–inertial measurement unit observations, tide gauge data, and a physical sea model. We used two different geoid models available for the area. The ship route was divided into lines and the lines were processed separately. The GNSS results were reduced to the sea surface using attitude and draft parameters available from the vessel during the campaign. For these lines, the residual errors between ellipsoidal height versus geoid height and absolute dynamic topography varied between 0 and 15?cm, grand mean being 2?cm. The mean standard deviations of the original time series were approximately 11?cm and reduced to below 5?cm for the time series filtered with 10?min moving average. We showed that it is possible to recover geoid heights from the GNSS observations at sea and validate existing geoid models in a well-controlled area.  相似文献   

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