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M. Masoud 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2015,8(5):2587-2606
Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?106 m3 at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge). 相似文献
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对1998年长江中游特大洪灾分析表明:长江中上游植被破坏,中游湖泊萎缩,干堤防洪标准低,河道泄洪不畅,是洪灾形成的主要因素.三峡水库是长江中游防洪体系中的骨干工程,必须与其他工程相配合.长江中游防洪减灾工程应坚持:(1)与环境保护相结合的原则;(2)与农田水利基本建设相结合的原则;(3)"固、蓄、疏"并举,以"疏"为主的原则;(4)防洪与除渍相结合的原则;(5)统一管理、联合攻关、综合整治的原则与对策.建议除加固长江干堤外,重点建设两条分洪河道,建好3个梯级蓄洪区,有计划有步骤地实施开堤开垸放淤工程. 相似文献
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蓄滞洪区的行蓄洪启用频率和蓄水方式决定着洪水管理与可持续发展途径,影响流域经济社会的可持续发展.根据各大流域蓄滞洪区的设计启用频率,设置了未来35年内蓄滞洪区发展的3种情景:维持现状、部分水库化和部分湿地化,构建了涵盖防洪、社会经济和生态发展等因子的途径选择指标体系,运用数据包络分析法(DEA),识别了不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展的最优途径.结果表明:① 不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区在建成35年内,部分湿地化情景是中国70%蓄滞洪区的最优发展途径.② 设计启用频率50年一遇是蓄滞洪区发展途径选择的边界值;当等于或低于50年一遇时,部分湿地化是其最优途径;当高于50年一遇时,维持其现状是最优途径. 相似文献
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近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少，河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整，河道蓄泄关系发生变化，对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上，对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下，遇1954年洪水，长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明，未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷，河道槽蓄容积增加，相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大，三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大，总拦蓄洪量减小，长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小，但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。 相似文献
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近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少,河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整,河道蓄泄关系发生变化,对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上,对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下,遇1954年洪水,长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明,未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷,河道槽蓄容积增加,相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大,三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大,总拦蓄洪量减小,长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小,但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。 相似文献
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Pramod Kumar Sharma 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):218-233
Flood hazard evaluation is an important input for Nuclear Power Plants external events safety studies. In the present study, flood hazard at various nuclear sites in India due to rainfall has been evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment are daily annual maximum rainfall (24?h data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law and exponential distribution, and return period has been estimated. To study the stationarity of rainfall data, a moving window estimate of the parameters has been performed. The rainfall pattern is stationary in both coastal and inland regions over the period of observation. The coastal regions show intense rainfall and higher variability than inland regions. Based on the plant layout, catchment area and drainage capacity, the prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) site is unlikely to be flooded. 相似文献
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基于投影寻踪和粒子群优化算法的洪水分类研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
洪水分类实际上是洪水强度大小辨别的优化问题。洪水分类不仅影响着水库的实时调度，而且也影响着洪水灾害危险评估。对利用降水预报进行洪水资源利用的水库来说，洪水分类对水库实时调度规则的建立有着重要的作用。因此，洪水分类是一个重要的理论和实践问题。本文以长江三峡水库代表性水文站——宜昌站为研究对象．基于投影寻踪方法建立了洪水分类的优化模型，并利用粒子群优化算法对所建模型进行求解。结果表明了投影寻踪方法和粒子群优化算法在洪水分类研究中的有效性和合理性． 相似文献
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The frequency in occurrence and severity of floods has increased globally. However, many regions around the globe, especially in developing countries, lack the necessary field monitoring data to characterize flood hazard risk. This paper puts forward methodology for developing flood hazard maps that define flood hazard risk, using a remote sensing and GIS-based flood hazard index (FHI), for the Nyamwamba watershed in western Uganda. The FHI was compiled using analytical hierarchy process and considered slope, flow accumulation, drainage network density, distance from drainage channel, geology, land use/cover and rainfall intensity as the flood causative factors. These factors were derived from Landsat, SRTM and PERSIANN remote sensing data products, except for geology that requires field data. The resultant composite FHI yielded a flood hazard map pointing out that over 11 and 18% of the study area was very highly and highly susceptible to flooding, respectively, while the remaining area ranged from medium to very low risk. The resulting flood hazard map was further verified using inundation area of a historical flood event in the study area. The proposed methodology was effective in producing a flood hazard map at the watershed local scale, in a data-scarce region, useful in devising flood mitigation measures. 相似文献
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关于长江中游洪灾问题的思考 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
中国是一个水灾频发的国家 ,长江中游历来就是重灾区。 1998年的长江洪水是 1954年以来最大的一次全流域性洪水 ,高水位持续时间长 ,洪水量大 ,洪水遭遇情况恶劣是这次长江汛期的突出特点 ,由此造成的损失十分严重。导致长江中游洪灾的原因是众多的 ,其中气候异常是最直接的影响因素 ,但过度围湖垦殖与江湖关系失调亦是洪涝灾害日趋严重的一个重要原因。由于自然演变和人类活动的共同作用 ,长江中游河湖环境越来越不利于超额洪水的排泄。江汉湖群、洞庭湖和鄱阳湖面积缩小 ,容积减少 ,对河流水量的调蓄作用大大降低。同时荆江已演变为典型的弯曲河道 ,成为防洪的重点地段。荆江大堤的修建隔断了江湖联系 ,改变了中游河湖关系。所有这些因素都使得中游洪灾日益加重。为了实现区域可持续发展 ,迫切需要建立一套完善的抗洪减灾防御体系。 相似文献
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Hydrodynamic flow modeling is carried out using a coupled 1D and 2D hydrodynamic flow model in northern India where an industrial plant is proposed. Two flooding scenarios, one considering the flooding source at regional/catchment level and another considering all flooding sources at local level have been simulated. For simulating flooding scenario due to flooding of the upstream catchment, the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the main river is routed and its flooding impact at the plant site is studied, while at the local level flooding, in addition to PMF in the main river, the probable maximum precipitation at the plant site and breaches in the canals near the plant site have been considered. The flood extent, depth, level, duration and maximum flow velocity have been computed. Three parameters namely the flood depth, cross product of flood depth and velocity and flood duration have been used for assessing the flood hazard, and a flood hazard classification scheme has been proposed. Flood hazard assessment for flooding due to upstream catchment and study on local scale facilitates determination of plinth level for the plant site and helps in identifying the flood protection measures. 相似文献
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长江洪水资源化思考 总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19
长江水患是我国最大的自然灾害, 华北缺水是我国最重要的资源环境问题.长江洪水资源化是使二者能够得到统筹解决而提出的一种思路.洪水资源化就是实现由灾害水向资源水和环境水的转化.长江洪水资源化不仅是由长江水资源特点、流域水旱交替频率加大及不断增加的水资源需求所决定, 也是解决华北水资源短缺的重要途径.蓄洪是洪水资源化的基础, 应在完善流域水库网络体系的基础上, 考虑人工控湖工程, 特别要重视蓄洪区建设, 通过“给水让地”, 实现“以土地换和平”和洪水资源化; 可通过引洪冲湖, 治理流域污染湖泊; 南水北调应以调洪水为主, 可通过蓄洪调水和直接引洪北调来实现. 相似文献
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针对极地冰雪显著影响中低纬气候的事实,利用1979-2017年长江流域116站降水资料和美国国家冰雪数据中心海冰资料,通过奇异值分解等统计学方法,研究北极海冰对长江流域主汛期降水的影响及可能的机制,结果表明:冬春季节,巴伦支海和鄂霍次克海海冰面积偏多、波佛特海海冰面积偏少时,主汛期长江上中游干流、汉江上游和雅砻江降水偏多;北极群岛、楚科奇海和拉普捷夫海以北海域海冰面积偏多时,主汛期两湖水系降水偏多,嘉陵江上游、汉江上游降水偏少;反之亦然。可能的机制为冬春季关键区海冰变化通过影响湍流热通量引发大气能量波动,这种波动以大气波列形式向东亚传播,影响东亚地区夏季的大气环流和水汽输送,从而间接影响长江流域主汛期降水。应用多元回归法,以关键区海冰面积作为预测因子建立4个流域内主汛期降水趋势预测模型,模型对预报区降水的定量预测有明显的波动,但对预报区总体的降水趋势有较好的预测效果。 相似文献
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2017年6月下旬至7月初,受持续强降雨影响,长江发生中游区域性大洪水。以实时报汛数据为基础,分析长江"2017·07"暴雨洪水特性,依据洪峰水位判断,强降雨导致洞庭湖水系湘江发生超历史最高水位特大洪水,资水、沅江发生超保证水位大洪水,洞庭湖超过保证水位;鄱阳湖水系乐安河上游发生超历史最高水位特大洪水,昌江、乐安河中下游、修水发生10a一遇较大洪水,鄱阳湖超过警戒水位;长江干流莲花塘以下江段全线超过警戒水位。在应对此次洪水过程中,长江上中游重点水库防洪效益十分明显,有效避免中游干流莲花塘至螺山江段超保,缩短洞庭湖城陵矶站超保时间6d左右。 相似文献
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Public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in Iceland: a case study in a watershed prone to ice-jam floods 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Understanding and improving the public perception has become an important element in the management of flood risk worldwide.
In Iceland, studying perception of flood hazard and flood risk is, however, in its early stages. This paper presents a case
study on the public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in an Icelandic town prone to ice-jam floods. Awareness of the
population regarding historical inundations, self estimation of flood risk and worry is considered. The factual knowledge
of the residents is deconstructed in flood hazard parameters accessible to the lay population: number of events, dates, genesis
and boundaries. The performance of the respondents is rated for each parameter and the influence of several predictors evaluated.
The research shows three significant patterns: there is poor awareness and little worry about historical inundations in the
area; experience of the past flooding events in town is the most effective source of knowledge; awareness, risk estimation
and worry are not correlated. 相似文献
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地质地貌条件是长江中游洪灾形成的背景条件,近代洪水位不断上升是人-地不和谐作用下流域环境系统演化的结果.人类作用导致的多流归槽改变了长江中游河流的地貌过程和水文特性,致使洪水过程显著;大堤修筑导致堤外河漫滩出现泥沙加积,自1650年荆江大堤合拢以来,边滩总体淤积厚度为2.8～11.0m,平均淤积速率12.54～25.64mm/a;围湖造田导致江汉-洞庭平原蓄洪空间减少和"小水大灾"局面的形成;漫滩筑堤围垸严重影响了长江行洪,仅荆江段就有围筑的民垸84个,总面积为4895.95km2,民垸面积是泄洪面积的近9倍.因此,在认识自然规律的基础上,正确协调人-地-水关系,重建良性循环的流域环境系统,是解决长江中游的水患的根本出路. 相似文献
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洞庭湖流域洪水模拟与综合治理 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
在洞庭湖水灾现状和特征分析的基础上,利用水平衡方程对洞庭湖及四水水系的水情作了进一步的模拟分析。初步估计了流域的泄流系数Fo,保水系数Fs和蓄水系数FR。得到洞庭湖随洪峰入湖流量而变化的水位日增量和湘、资、沅、四水流域随集中降水量而变化的水位总增量。进而对洞庭湖水患的防治提出了综合的治理方略：（1）增加蓄洪面积,预田蓄洪;（2）增大泄流系数,有控泄流;（3）减少入流流量,有效蓄水;（4）加固堤防工程,有备无患。减少入流流量,有效蓄水,就是在洞庭湖上游的四水流域,除了增加水库型集中蓄水外,还要人工地增加降水滞流量,也就是在全流域增加分散性蓄水机能,进行研究水田蓄水、旱土蓄水、草地蓄水及林地蓄水等的蓄洪限度、实施技术及蓄洪以外的经济效益,以及流域人工增加降水滞流量的巨大潜力。本文分析认为,只有对洞庭湖及其流域的水旱灾害实施综合治理,才是根治洞庭湖水患的有效方略,将对湖南社会经济可持续发展起重要作用。 相似文献
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三峡水库建成后,长江中下游防洪形势显著改善,但由于经济社会发展,防洪要求的提高和江湖关系的变化,长江防洪形势发生了一些新的变化。以1954年和1998年典型大洪水为例,分析了三峡水库建成后长江中下游防洪形势出现的新变化,讨论了长江中下游蓄滞洪空间格局调整及江湖关系变化对于防洪的影响。根据长江水沙变化、河道演变、水库群调控和分蓄洪区使用几率变化等出现的新问题,提出未来防洪战略及对策。结果表明:三峡建成后,百年一遇以下洪水防御形势明显好转,而百年一遇以上特大防洪的防洪形势仍然严峻,洪水风险主要转移到水库群上;今后需要在加强蓄滞洪区建设的基础上,重点推动防洪非工程措施建设,以减轻特大洪水带来的灾害损失。 相似文献
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从趋势性、滞后性及相关性三方面,对2002—2013年间GRACE重力卫星反演的长江上游与中游陆地水储量与模型模拟土壤含水量、实测降水和实测径流数据进行了对比分析,并从干旱强度及发展时间两方面评估了标准化陆地水储量指数SWSI、标准化降水指数SPI、标准化径流指数SRI和标准化土壤含水量指数SSMI对区域性干旱的表征能力.结果表明:长江上游地区陆地水储量与降水、径流和土壤水蓄量均无显著变化,而中游地区陆地水储量则与水库蓄量同样具有显著性增加,反映人类活动对中游地区陆地水储量变化有很大影响;各指标指示的各等级干旱月份数量基本相当,但各指标反映的特旱具体月份有较大差别,基于GRACE数据构建的SWSI指标对特大干旱的指示性不好;对比各指标对上游与中游地区干旱事件发展时间,体现出水文干旱、农业干旱对气象干旱存在一定的迟滞关系. 相似文献