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1.
We present the methodologies adopted and the outcomes obtained in the analysis of landslide risk in the basin of the Arno
River (Central Italy) in the framework of a project sponsored by the Basin Authority of the Arno River, started in the year
2002 and completed at the beginning of 2005. In particular, a complete set of methods and applications for the assessment
of landslide susceptibility and risk are described and discussed.
A new landslide inventory of the whole area was realized, using conventional (aerial-photo interpretation and field surveys)
and non-conventional methods (e.g. remote sensing techniques such as DInSAR and PS-InSAR).
The great majority of the mapped mass movements are rotational slides (75%), solifluctions and other shallow slow movements
(17%) and flows (5%), while soil slips, and other rapid landslides, seem less frequent everywhere within the basin. The relationships
between landslide characteristics and environmental factors have been assessed through statistical analysis. As expected,
the results show a strong control of land cover, lithology and morphology on landslide occurrence. The landslide frequency-size
distribution shows a typical scaling behaviour already underlined in other landslide inventories worldwide. The assessment
of landslide hazard in terms of probability of occurrence in a given time, based for mapped landslides on direct and indirect
observations of the state of activity and recurrence time, has been extended to landslide-free areas through the application
of statistical methods implemented in an artificial neural network (ANN). Unique conditions units (UCU) were defined by the
map overlay of landslide preparatory factors (lithology, land cover, slope gradient, slope curvature and upslope contributing
area) and afterwards used to construct a series of model vectors for the training and test of the ANN. Various different ANNs
were selected throughout the basin, until each UCU was assigned a degree of membership to a susceptibility and a hazard class.
Model validation confirms that prediction results are very good, with an average percentage of correctly recognized mass movements
of about 85%. The analysis also revealed the existence of a large number of unmapped mass movements, thus contributing to
the completeness of the final inventory. Temporal hazard was estimated via the translation of state of activity in recurrence
time and hence probability of occurrence. The following intersection of hazard values with vulnerability and exposure figures,
obtained by reclassification of digital vector mapping at 1:10,000 scale, lead to the definition of risk values for each terrain
unit for different periods of time into the future. The final results of the research are now undergoing a process of integration
and implementation within land planning and risk prevention policies and practices at local and national level. 相似文献
2.
Kurseong hill subdivision, being one of the three (Kurseong, Sadar and Kalingpong) subdivisions of the hilly portions of the Darjeeling district, West Bengal, India, is affected by severe landslide incidence in the rainy season every year. These landslides and related phenomena frequently create social and economic instability disrupting communication system, claiming property and even sometimes life. Curbing landslide threat, therefore, becomes very much essential over this area. Individual landslide treatments are seen to be taken up by the construction engineers and geo-technical experts almost every year from government level. But reoccurrence of landslides on the same spots or surrounding places clearly reveals that construction works and filling procedures (usually taken up) are not the adequate measures to heal up the problem unless the area is treated as zones of landslides than individual spots of landslide occurrences. Therefore, the assessment of spatial probability of landslide occurrence in various magnitudes in the form of landslide vulnerability zones becomes essential. This spatial probability should also be compared with temporal probability based on the data of landslide incidence of the area for justification of match or mismatch between the inference drawn from the diagnostic criteria based assessment of the possibility level of landslide occurrence and the reality of the landslide scenario in the light of historical perspective of the area. This comparison will finally help to achieve the predicted vulnerability zones of landslide with desirable accuracy to put forward for planning decision. Moreover, such predicted vulnerability zonation can be taken as a standard estimate to use in planning purpose for the areas where historical data of landslide incidences are inadequate or unavailable. With this view in mind, the present paper takes an attempt to verify and compare landslide vulnerability zones derived from Spatial Terrain Parameter Evaluation (STPE) and Anthropogenic Criteria Identification (ACI) methods with the landslide hazard zones prepared from historical data, i.e. landslide inventory of certain length of time. Careful observation reveals that different degrees of landslide vulnerability zones significantly correspond with the similar magnitudes of the landslide hazard zones determined by past occurrence data of landslides over this hill subdivision and therefore validate the predictability procedure of landslide vulnerability zonation. The accuracy performance of the landslide vulnerability zonation model has further been verified by the occurrence dataset of landslide events through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis where area under curve evaluation showed 81.77 % correctness. 相似文献
3.
To address the current data and understanding knowledge gap in landslide dam inventories related to geomorphological parameters, a new global-scale landslide dam dataset named River Augmented Global Landslide Dams (RAGLAD) was created. RAGLAD is a collection of landslide dam records from multiple data sources published in various languages and many of these records we have been able to precisely geolocate. In total, 779 landslide dam records were compiled from 34 countries/regions. The spatial distribution, time trend, triggers, and geomorphological characteristic of the landslides and catchments where landslide dams formed are summarized. The relationships between geomorphological characteristics for landslides that form river dams are discussed and compared with those of landslides more generally. Additionally, a potential threshold for landslide dam formation is proposed, based on the relationship of landslide volume to river width. Our findings from our analysis of the value of the use of additional fluvial datasets to augment the database parameters indicate that they can be applied as a reliable supplemental data source, when the landslide dam records were accurately and precisely geolocated, although location precision in smaller river catchment areas can result in some uncertainty at this scale. This newly collected and supplemented dataset will allow the analysis and development of new relationships between landslides located near rivers and their actual propensity to block those particular rivers based on their geomorphology.
相似文献4.
Javed Iqbal Tanoli Chen Ningsheng Amar Deep Regmi Li Jun 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(13):277
The 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha earthquake triggered thousands of landslides of various types scattered over a large area. In the current study, we utilized pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite imagery to compile two landslide inventories before and after earthquake and prepared three landslide susceptibility maps within 404 km2 area using frequency ratio (FR) model. From the study, we could map about 519 landslides including 178 pre-earthquake slides and 341 coseismic slides were identified. This study investigated the relationship between landslide occurrence and landslide causative factors, i.e., slope, aspect, altitude, plan curvature, lithology, land use, distance from streams, distance from road, distance from faults, and peak ground acceleration. The analysis showed that the majority of landslides both pre-earthquake and coseismic occurred at slope >30°, preferably in S, SE, and SW directions and within altitude ranging from 1000 to 1500 m and 1500 to 3500 m. Scatter plots between number of landslides per km?2 (LN) and percentage of landslide area (LA) and causative factors indicate that slope is the most influencing factor followed by lithology and PGA for the landslide formation. Higher landslide susceptibility before earthquake is observed along the road and rivers, whereas landslides after earthquake are triggered at steeper slopes and at higher altitudes. Combined susceptibility map indicates the effect of topography, geology, and land cover in the triggering of landslides in the entire basin. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps are verified through AUC showing success rates of 78, 81, and 77%, respectively. These susceptibility maps are helpful for engineers and planners for future development work in the landslide prone area. 相似文献
5.
2010年1月12日海地MW 7.0级地震触发了大量的滑坡。我们基于GIS与遥感技术构建了3类详细完备的海地地震滑坡编录图,分别为单体滑坡面分布数据,滑坡中心点位置数据与滑坡后壁点位置数据。结果表明海地地震触发了30828处滑坡,这些滑坡大致分布在一个面积为3192.85km2的区域内,滑坡覆盖面积为15.736km2。基于滑坡中心点密度(LCND)、滑坡后壁点密度(LTND)、滑坡面积百分比(LAP)与滑坡剥蚀厚度(LET)这4个衡量指标,使用统计分析方法,分析了海地地震滑坡及其剥蚀厚度与地震参数、地形参数、公路参数的关系。分析结果表明滑坡与坡度、地震动峰值加速度(PGA)存在大致的正相关关系; 与距离恩里基约芭蕉园断裂、距离水系存在大致的负相关关系; 滑坡沿着恩里基约芭蕉园断裂距离的统计结果表明,震中以西距离震中22~26km与8~12km的区域,与震中以东距离震中6~18km的区域是地震滑坡易发区域; 斜坡曲率值越接近0,也就是坡面较平的斜坡越不容易在地震条件下发生滑动; LCND、LTND、LAP与LET高值对应的高程区间为200~1200m; 滑坡发生的优势坡向为E方向; 滑坡的发生与距离震中、距离公路没有太明确的关系。 相似文献
6.
滑坡预警判据初步研究--以三峡库区为例 总被引：17，自引：2，他引：15
在三峡库区典型地段滑坡灾害调查评价和统计分析的基础上,结合典型滑坡变形发展的阶段性变形现象、标志和临界诱发因素分析,初步提出3个层次的滑坡预警预报判据27条,包括:(1)滑坡空间预测识别判据11条,主要用于滑坡或潜在危岩体空间识别和危险性区划,是滑坡空间预测的基本判据;(2)滑坡状态判据7条,主要用于滑坡单体稳定性评价的亚临界-临界状态预警判据,是滑坡状态预警判据系统的重要组成部分;(3)滑坡临界时间预报判据9条,主要用于单体滑坡剧烈变形或临滑预报,是滑坡时间预报研究的关键判据. 相似文献
7.
基于滑坡分类的西宁市滑坡易发性评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以往的滑坡易发性评价多以全体滑坡为研究对象，忽视了滑坡类型的区别。各评价指标对不同类型滑坡的影响程度不同，也导致指标权重无法精确地反映其对滑坡的影响。为更准确地对滑坡灾害进行空间预测，针对西宁市滑坡特征及发育机理，将全区滑坡分为土质滑坡和岩质滑坡；在野外实际调查的基础上，结合相关性分析，选取坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、平面曲率、工程地质岩组，以及滑坡点距断层、水系、道路的距离远近等8项因素作为滑坡易发性评价指标，并通过滑坡点分布密度和滑坡点相对分布密度，分析各评价指标分别对土质滑坡和岩质滑坡的影响；利用信息量模型，计算各评价指标对两类滑坡的信息量值，利用人工神经网络模型，赋予各评价指标对两类滑坡的权重；最后基于GIS平台利用加权信息量模型对研究区进行易发性评价。通过统计方法和ROC曲线法分别计算滑坡易发性评价成功率，结果表明:评价成功率可达到82.61%和82.30%，与未经滑坡分类的成功率比较，分别提高了10.9%和5.2%；同时，经过滑坡分类后，湟水河两岸地质条件较差的地区转变为滑坡高易发区。 相似文献
8.
Landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is important for catastrophe management in the mountainous regions. They focus on generating susceptibility maps beginning from landslide inventories and considering the main predisposing parameters. The aim of this study was to assess the susceptibility of the occurrence of debris flows in the Zêzere River basin and its surrounding area using logistic regression (LR) and frequency ratio (FR) models. To achieve this, a landslide inventory map was created using historical information, satellite imagery, and extensive field works. One hundred landslides were mapped, of which 75% were randomly selected as training data, while the remaining 25% were used for validating the models. The landslide influence factors considered for this study were lithology, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to roads, topographic wetness index (TWI), and stream power index (SPI). The relationships between landslide occurrence and these factors were established, and the results were then evaluated and validated. Validation results show that both methods give acceptable results [the area under curve (AUC) of success rates is 83.71 and 76.38 for LR and FR, respectively]. Furthermore, the AUC results for prediction accuracy revealed that LR model has the highest predictive performance (AUC of predicted rate?=?80.26). Hence, it is concluded that the two models showed reasonably good accuracy in predicting the landslide susceptibility in the study area. These two models have the potential to aid planners in development and land-use planning and to offer tools for hazard mitigation measures. 相似文献
9.
Brijendra K. Mishra Dipanjan Bhattacharjee Anupam Chattopadhyay Ganesh Prusty 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(2):673-697
The purpose of this study is to analyze and characterize recent landslide events in the Larji–Kullu Tectonic Window (LKTW), and to establish a relationship between the tectonic and lithologic characters of the terrain and the landslides activity. Using multispectral satellite image analysis with selected field investigation, a landslide occurrence database has been generated for the period between 1984 and 2015. To decipher the accelerated occurrences of landslides in the region, an integrated study is undertaken in the Kullu (also known as Kulu) valley of Beas River basin within the LKTW complex, to analyze the litho-structural and terrain slope interactions using morpho-tectonic parameters such as Topographic/Bedding Plane Interaction Angle (TOBIA) index, terrain surface roughness index and lithological competency analysis. A prominent clustering of landslides is observed in the north of Sainj River, contained within the tectonic window. Major sites of landslides are found to be located in the intensely fractured Manikaran Quartzite occurring within the core of the LKTW. The landslides are mostly associated with southern and southwestern-facing slopes and activations are pronounced in the ‘Orthoclinal’ slope class with gradient of 37°–48°. Thematic maps, e.g., geological, structural, geomorphological, slope and slope-aspect maps are generated and considered together to understand the morpho-tectonic scenario of the tectonic window. Observations from the above-stated thematic maps along with the occurrences of moderate magnitude earthquake epicenters helped to infer neotectonic movements along the Sainj River fault. Tectonic upliftment of the northern bank of the Sainj River along with increased precipitation through decades has resulted in recurrent landslides within the LKTW. 相似文献
10.
Tanyaş Hakan Görüm Tolga Fadel Islam Yıldırım Cengiz Lombardo Luigi 《Landslides》2022,19(6):1405-1420
On November 14, 2016, the northeastern South Island of New Zealand was hit by the magnitude Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, which is characterized by the most complex rupturing mechanism ever recorded. The widespread landslides triggered by the earthquake make this event a great case study to revisit our current knowledge of earthquake-triggered landslides in terms of factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslides and the rapid assessment of geographic areas affected by widespread landsliding. Although the spatial and size distributions of landslides have already been investigated in the literature, a polygon-based co-seismic landslide inventory with landslide size information is still not available as of June 2021. To address this issue and leverage this large landslide event, we mapped 14,233 landslides over a total area of approximately 14,000 km2. We also identified 101 landslide dams and shared them all via an open-access repository. We examined the spatial distribution of co-seismic landslides in relation to lithologic units and seismic and morphometric characteristics. We analyzed the size statistics of these landslides in a comparative manner, by using the five largest co-seismic landslide inventories ever mapped (i.e., Chi-Chi, Denali, Wenchuan, Haiti, and Gorkha). We compared our inventory with respect to these five ones to answer the question of whether the landslides triggered by the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake are less numerous and/or share size characteristics similar to those of other strong co-seismic landslide events. Our findings show that the spatial distribution of the Kaikōura landslide event is not significantly different from those belonging to other extreme landslide events, but the average landslide size generated by the Kaikōura earthquake is relatively larger compared to some other large earthquakes (i.e., Wenchuan and Gorkha).
相似文献11.
Hazard Zoning for Landslides Connected to Torrential Floods in the Jerte Valley (Spain) by using GIS Techniques 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Carrasco R.M. Pedraza J. Martin-Duque J.F. Mattera M. Sanz M.A. Bodoque J.M. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):361-381
The Jerte Valley is anortheast-southwest tending graben located in the mountainous region of west central Spain (Spanish Central System). Mass movements have been a predominant shaping process on the Valley slopes during the Quaternary. Present day activity is characterized as either `first-time failure' (shallow debris slides and debris flows) or `reactivations' of pre-existing landslides deposits.A delineation of landslide hazard zoningwithin the Valley has been carried out by using the detailed documentation of a particular event (a debris slide and a sequel torrential flood, which occurred on the Jubaguerra stream gorge), and GIS techniques. The procedure has had four stages, which are: (1) the elaboration of a susceptibility map (spatial prediction) of landslides; (2) the elaboration of a map of `restricted susceptibility' in the particular case of slopes that are connected to streams and torrents (gorges); (3) the elaboration of a digital model which relates the altitude to the occurrence probability of those particular precipitation conditions which characterized the Jubaguerra event and (4) the combination of the probability model with the `restricted susceptibility map', to establish `critical zones' or areas which are more prone to the occurrence of phenomena that have same typology as this one. 相似文献
12.
The contribution of PSInSAR interferometry to landslide hazard in weak rock-dominated areas 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In the Grande da Pipa river basin, north of Lisbon, 64 % of the total number of landslides inventoried is totally or partially included in a lithological unit composed by marl, clay, and sandstone intercalation complex that is present in 58 % of the study area. The Persistent Scatterer synthetic aperture radar interferometry technique is applied to a data set of TerraSAR-X SAR images, from April of 2010 to March of 2011, firstly to the Laje-Salema test site and further exported to the Grande da Pipa river basin. This work’s specific objectives are the following: (i) to assess the potential of the Persistent Scatterer displacement maps to the identification of new landslides/unstable areas and in the redefinition of landslide limits, (ii) to update the landslide state of activity, and (iii) to evaluate the capacity of the Persistent Scatterer deformation maps in assessing landslide susceptibility at the regional scale. Based on this approach, it was possible to increment the number of landslides and to redefine the landslide limits in the test site in 3.8 %. For 39 landslides, it was possible to update the landslide state of activity, in particular from dormant to reactivated or dormant-reactivated (23 landslides) or from stabilized to reactivated (5 landslides). Landslide susceptibility map based in Persistent Scatterer deformation rates, independently validated with a deep rotational slide map, obtained the best value of area under the curve (0.668). 相似文献
13.
Landslides are a common phenomenon in parts of Malawi. A number of historical landslides have been documented, and are summarised here. This paper examines the occurrence of landslides in the Rumphi district of northern Malawi, concentrating on the catchment of the Vunguvungu and Banga rivers. This is an area of deeply weathered biotitic gneiss and muscovite schist, with deep, sandy soils, comparatively steep slopes and a rainfall in excess of 1,500 mm per annum. These factors, in association with changing land use patterns, have contributed to the landslide vulnerability of the area. The investigation focuses, as a case study, on the Banga landslide of 1997 for which data are available, and which occurred after unseasonal rain. A unique combination of natural and human induced factors is proposed in explaining the occurrence of landslides. The paper concludes by proposing an elementary vulnerability appraisal procedure for the catchment and by discussing the potential risk of landslides in this area. 相似文献
14.
The capital city of Honduras, Tegucigalpa, suffers from the occurrence of destructive landslides on a yearly basis. During the rainy season, damages to infrastructure as well as injuries, casualties and homeless individuals resulting from landslides are reported in the press. This paper presents the development of a database for rainfall-induced landslides for the period 1980–2005, based on the news reported by two local newspapers. The editions comprehended during the study period have been scrutinized, and articles focusing on landslides, tropical storms, hurricanes, floods and vulnerability of the city have been collected. The interpretation of these archives has allowed the compilation of valuable data of approximately 400 landslides. The analyses of monthly and annual precipitation during the study period show how extreme rainfall events like Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998 have significantly contributed to the initiation of landslides. In addition, the assessment of the slums and neighborhoods affected by landslides during the study period reveals an evident link between the social and physical vulnerability of Tegucigalpa. In order to estimate the reliability of this press-based database, the set of landslides that have been reported as a result of Hurricane Mitch in the press archives has been compared with two inventories based on the interpretation of aerial photographs taken in 1999 and 2001. It is shown that the analysis of the landslide damage left after the hurricane can be enriched with the detailed temporal data provided in the archives and the precise location of these events determined by the aerial photographs. Despite the difficulties faced in the compilation of this database, a good comprehension of the temporal and spatial distribution of landslides in Tegucigalpa has been achieved. 相似文献
15.
滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
滑坡灾害风险评估主要包括滑坡敏感性分析、危险性评价和风险评估3个不同层次的内容。但是,滑坡地质灾害本身的复杂性和滑坡强度的确定、滑坡发生的时空概率估算、承灾体的易损性时空概率分析等难点问题的存在,无疑阻碍了滑坡风险定量评估的推广和应用。在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,对滑坡灾害风险评价的技术体系进行了总结,提出了不同层次滑坡灾害的研究内容和相应的评价方法;分析了实现滑坡风险有效评价涉及到的难点问题,并结合降雨和地震诱发的滑坡灾害危险性评价国内外的实践,提出了中国未来滑坡灾害风险评价研究的主要内容和技术方法。 相似文献
16.
The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds 总被引：25，自引：0，他引：25
Mark T. J. Terlien 《Environmental Geology》1998,35(2-3):124-130
Hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds separate combinations of daily and antecedent rainfall or of rainfall intensity
and duration that triggered landslides from those that failed to trigger landslides. They are required for the development
of landslide early warning systems. When a large data set on rainfall and landslide occurrence is available, hydrological
triggering thresholds are determined in a statistical way. When the data on landslide occurrence is limited, deterministic
models have to be used. For shallow landslides directly triggered by percolating rainfall, triggering thresholds can be established
by means of one-dimensional hydrological models linked to the infinite slope model. In the case of relatively deep landslides
located in topographic hollows and triggered by a slow accumulation of water at the soil-bedrock contact, simple correlations
between landslide occurrence and rainfall can no longer be established. Therefore real-time failure probabilities have to
be determined using hydrological catchment models in combination with the infinite slope model.
Received: 15 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 相似文献
17.
Jianqiang Zhang Peng Cui Yonggang Ge Lingzhi Xiang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(4):1037-1047
Generally, pixels are the basic unit for assessment of landslide susceptibility. However, even if the results facilitate the
comparison, a pixel-based analysis does not clearly illustrate the distribution relationships. To eliminate this deficiency,
the concept of the Landslide Response Unit (LRU) is proposed in this study, for which adjacent pixels that have similar properties
are combined as a basic unit for susceptibility assessment. The Subao River basin, seriously impacted by the Wenchuan Earthquake,
was selected as the study area, and three factors including slope gradient, slope aspect, and slope shape, which have a significant
impact on landslides, were chosen to divide the basin into 25,984 LRUs. Then topographic, geologic, and distance factors were
applied for the landslide susceptibility evaluation. The logistic regression method was used to establish the susceptibility
assessing model by analyzing 2,000 susceptible LRUs and 2,000 un-susceptible LRUs. The model accuracy was defined in terms
of the ROC curve value and the κ value, 0.531 and 0.84, respectively. The susceptibility of landslides was divided into low,
moderate, high, and very high in Subao River basin, and 73% of historical landslides and all four new landslides are in the
highly susceptible zone and very highly susceptible zones. Finally, the LRUs with houses, farmlands, and roads prone to sliding
and burial hazard were assessed separately. On the basis of considering the potential movement directions of the LRUs, the
result found that 1,001 and 835 LRUs probably would be destroyed by slope sliding and landslide burial, respectively. 相似文献
18.
Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans. 相似文献
19.
Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Nussaïbah B. Raja Ihsan Çiçek Necla Türkoğlu Olgu Aydin Akiyuki Kawasaki 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1323-1346
Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams. 相似文献