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1.
自古以来,蝗灾与水灾、旱灾并称为中国农业社会的三大自然灾害。基于史料文献收集了明清时期安徽历史蝗灾记录,通过构建10 a尺度上的蝗灾频次序列和1 a尺度上的蝗灾县次序列,在县域尺度上绘制了蝗灾指数分布图,探讨了蝗灾演化时空动态过程。通过引入饥荒、米价以及疫灾序列分析了蝗灾对社会的影响以及古代社会对蝗灾的响应过程。结果表明:明清时期安徽境内共发生181次蝗灾,每3.2次/10 a,累计653个受灾县次,平均3.6县/a;安徽地区发生了5次大蝗灾事件,这与同时期的干旱密切相关;安徽长江以北地区的蝗灾指数高于南部山区,地形、水旱灾害以及人类活动等因素是影响蝗灾指数分布差异的主要原因。蝗灾对社会产生了复杂深远的影响,是引发饥荒的重要因素,并间接导致瘟疫现象。蝗灾大范围出现后导致短期内米价暴涨,增加社会不稳定性。政府的捕蝗救灾的方式与能力直接影响群众的生存状况,是保障社会稳定的重要机制。综合看来,蝗灾会对农业子系统、经济子系统、社会子系统和技术子系统产生多重影响。 相似文献
2.
明清时期（公元1368—1911年）是中国的小冰期,也被称为方志时期,蝗灾等各种自然灾害频发且记录丰富。华北平原是中国历史蝗灾暴发的主要源地,对其开展研究具有特殊的意义。基于明清时期的文献资料,从灾害地理学的视角,借助数理统计与GIS空间分析方法,构建京津冀地区蝗灾等级、频数和县次序列,揭示蝗灾的时空分布特征,并解析其成因。结果表明： （1）明清时期京津冀地区蝗灾平均1.8 a一遇,年均受灾3县次;蝗灾主要发生在夏半年的三月至八月,其中六月和七月是蝗灾暴发的峰值月份,而冬半年的九月至次年二月较少;（2）蝗灾等级以Ⅱ级和Ⅲ级为主,平均等级为2.17;“十年蝗灾频数”和“十年蝗灾县次”整体上呈现波动上升趋势;（3）蝗灾代际县次变化,夏蝗县次多于秋蝗县次,且次年夏蝗的发生与上年暖冬并未良好对应;（4）小波分析指示蝗灾存在100a和30a的主周期和53 a、17 a和11a的次周期;（5）蝗灾空间分布具有一定的集中性,东南远多于西北,受地形起伏和水系格局的影响较大;（6）蝗灾的发生与温度关系不明显,但与旱涝关系密切,并与Nino3指数有良好的对应。 相似文献
3.
明清时期(公元1368—1911年)是中国的小冰期,也被称为方志时期,蝗灾等各种自然灾害频发且记录丰富。华北平原是中国历史蝗灾暴发的主要源地,对其开展研究具有特殊的意义。基于明清时期的文献资料,从灾害地理学的视角,借助数理统计与GIS空间分析方法,构建京津冀地区蝗灾等级、频数和县次序列,揭示蝗灾的时空分布特征,并解析其成因。结果表明:(1)明清时期京津冀地区蝗灾平均1.8 a一遇,年均受灾3县次;蝗灾主要发生在夏半年的三月至八月,其中六月和七月是蝗灾暴发的峰值月份,而冬半年的九月至次年二月较少;(2)蝗灾等级以Ⅱ级和Ⅲ级为主,平均等级为2.17;"十年蝗灾频数"和"十年蝗灾县次"整体上呈现波动上升趋势;(3)蝗灾代际县次变化,夏蝗县次多于秋蝗县次,且次年夏蝗的发生与上年暖冬并未良好对应;(4)小波分析指示蝗灾存在100 a和30 a的主周期和53 a、17 a和11a的次周期;(5)蝗灾空间分布具有一定的集中性,东南远多于西北,受地形起伏和水系格局的影响较大;(6)蝗灾的发生与温度关系不明显,但与旱涝关系密切,并与Nino3指数有良好的对应。 相似文献
4.
利用《清史·灾赈志》中的历史灾害信息,重建清代(公元1644—1911年)华北蝗灾、水灾和旱灾的逐年频次序列,并以核密度估计法刻画3种灾害的空间分布,在此基础上展开时空对比分析。结果表明,蝗灾频次体现出一定的阶段性,1640s—1690s与1800s—1850s为2个多发时段,空间上主要分布于冀鲁豫三省的平原地区及山西的汾河谷地。年际尺度上蝗灾与旱灾呈显著正相关,干旱对于蝗灾的触发作用较为明显,但极端干旱会在一定程度上抑制蝗灾的规模;水灾对于当年灾区的蝗情有显著抑制,但灾后由涝转旱的气候背景可能诱发大面积蝗灾。在空间上,蝗灾与水旱灾害多发区有良好的对应,但水旱灾害的不同影响机制以及蝗虫的迁飞特性,使得3种灾害的极端多发区并不重合。蝗灾最集中的区域呈新月状分布于河北省西部,可能是蝗虫从孳生地(海河水系下游近水荒滩)迁飞于此,在太行山脉的阻隔之下形成。上述结论有助于推进对历史时期蝗灾发生机制的科学认识,以及指导气候变化背景之下的蝗灾防治工作。 相似文献
5.
通过对云南华坪葫芦洞FL4石笋进行高精度的ICP—MS—230Th/U测年和高分辨率的碳、氧同位素分析,建立了该地区6 060-4 185 a BP间高分辨率的西南季风气候变化时间序列,进而揭示了该时段发生的3次季风减弱事件。 这3次百年尺度（持续时间为90～240a）的干旱寒冷事件,分别发生在6 060－5 950 a BP、5 380－5 140 a BP、4 810-4 620 a BP,呈台阶状演变;而石笋的碳同位素记录揭示了2次强降水事件,分别发生在5 503－5 443 a BP和4 210-4 185 a BP,持续时间分别为25a和60a。石笋碳、氧同位素记录的西南季风减弱以及强降水事件明显受太阳辐射强度的控制。分辨率为3~10 a的碳、氧同位素记录表明,在百年尺度的西南季风气候变化上,叠加了一系列十年尺度的气候突变事件,呈锯齿状的高频波动。这些短时间尺度的季风气候波动事件与树轮14C 残差、冰芯记录极为相似,反映低纬度地区石笋记录的季风气候与高纬度及北极地区的气候具有极好的可比性,可能主要是受中低纬度太阳辐射强度以及北半球大气环流的影响,太阳辐射强度的变化是控制印度季风的快速推进或退出(萎缩)以及百年尺度上的气候波动的主要动因。 相似文献
6.
河北坝上地区位于东亚季风边缘区和农牧交错带,季风强弱的变化深刻影响着该地区人类文明的发展.为了重建河北坝上地区中-晚全新世以来的气候演化过程,剖析气候变化与人类文明发展的关系,以坝上地区安固里淖湖为研究对象,通过对该湖沉积剖面植硅体的分析,并结合孢粉组合特征,恢复了安固里淖地区5 000 cal.a BP以来的气候演变历史.结果显示,在千年尺度上该区域气候总体呈冷干趋势,但在5 030~3 070 cal.a BP时期气候相对湿润,千年尺度上气候的变化主要受控于北半球太阳辐射量的变化.在百年尺度上安固里淖地区经历了7次冷干事件,分别发生于4 500 cal.a BP、4 100~3 800 cal.a BP、3 500 cal.a BP、3 000 cal.a BP、2 100 cal.a BP、1 100 cal.a BP和800~270 cal.a BP左右,这7次冷干事件对应于东亚季风减弱阶段,主要受到了北半球高纬气候和太阳活动的共同影响.该区人类文明的演化敏感响应于气候变化,气候温湿期以农业文明为主,气候冷干期以草原文明为主. 相似文献
7.
利用连续小波分析和经验模态分解方法,对我国北方地区(33°～41°N,108°～115°E)1470 ～2002年每年夏季降水量指数的时间序列进行了周期成分分析,探索全球气候变暖下的该地区降水量的多尺度变化特征.小波分析表明,降水量指数的可能周期有2.57a,4.83a,10.65a,23.25a,48.56a,68.30a和105.90a的周期,在95％置信水平有统计意义的周期是2.57a和23.25a的周期.这些周期和自然因素导致的周期相联系,不仅包含了气候系统内部(平流层准2a振荡和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动)的非线性作用,还包含了气候系统外(主要是太阳活动)受强迫的周期变化,且二者在原始降水量中所在比重相当,共同反映了原始降水量的绝大部分变化.降水量不只是在百年尺度上受太阳活动的驱动,在数十年尺度上也受到太阳活动的影响.我国北方地区的夏季降水量指数和夏季温度指数同相位反相关,全球增温并没有明显地改变二者之间的反相关关系.近百年来全球变暖期间,夏季降水量出现明显的新特征:短周期成分(小于30a的周期)的振幅比以往要显著大,而长周期成分的振幅比以往要显著小,同时呈现降水量逐年减少的长期变化趋势. 相似文献
8.
通过笔者对荔波龙泉洞L2石笋进行高精度的ICP-MS-230Th测年和碳、氧同位素分析, 建立了荔波地区1200 a BP 来高分辨率的古气候变化的时间序列。研究结果表明, 荔波地区1200 a BP以来石笋记录的季风气候经历了1200~1100 a BP(暖)、1100~940 a BP (冷)、940~840 a BP(暖)、840~700 a BP(冷)、700~450 a BP(暖)、450~300 a BP(冷)、300~200 a BP(暖)以及200~70 a BP(冷)等8个阶段百年尺度的干湿、冷暖波动, 并在这些百年尺度的波动上又叠加了一系列数十年尺度的气候变化。石笋记录揭示了1200 a以来东亚季风气候的不稳定性, 呈百年尺度(Gleissberg)的周期性变化。这些气候变化事件, 与冰芯记录极为相似, 反映低纬度地区百年尺度石笋记录的季风气候变化与高纬度及北极地区的气候变化具有极好的相关性, 反映百年尺度石笋记录的季风降水主要受太阳辐射驱动、控制, 而东亚季风的降水事件(或干旱事件)与太阳的辐射强度密切相关。石笋记录的百年尺度季风降水事件对于认识现代气候系统变化以及对未来十年—百年尺度的气候预测和演化的驱动机制, 具有重要的科学意义。 相似文献
9.
本文采用华山东峰、西峰和南峰的华山松树轮宽度差值年表重建了1500年以来中国陕西关中及周边地区的初夏干燥指数序列,对重建序列进行了统计特征分析,并同大尺度大气环流场进行了相关分析。结果表明:华山年表的变化与该地区初夏平均干燥指数序列的变化具有很好的一致性,可用来重建该地区的初夏干燥指数序列;该地区在1502～1511年、1570～1580年以及1807～1814年间的初夏季节存在3次较为严重的干旱;该地区初夏干燥指数变化存在着较为明显的周期特征,其中以13a左右和4a左右的周期最为显著,但周期特征在不同的历史阶段存在着明显的差异;重建序列在1784年前后发生了一次较大幅度的方差变化,而1587年前后的均值突变则表现为干燥指数值的急剧降低;该地区初夏季节的干燥程度可能与前期极涡的中心强度及冷空气活动有关。 相似文献
10.
应用层次分析法(AHP)对影响三江平原环境地质质量的岩石、土壤和水3个子系统分别进行评价，通过分析影响各子系统的主要因子，建立子系统层次结构模型和质量指数数学模型，得出各子系统的质量指数，从而评价出各个子系统的质量状况。在此基础上，建立地质环境系统质量评价的层次结构模型和数学模型，计算出地质环境质量指数，并对该地区的质量状况进行评价，得出三江地区总体环境地质状况是好的结论。 相似文献
11.
Based on records on famine kept in historical documents, 2950 famine events counted with “county time” in North China during 1736-1911 were collected, and annual famine index series in North China was reconstructed using weighted average method according to the severity of famine. Spatio-temporal distribution of famine and its relationship with climate, disaster and harvest was analyzed. The research shows that variation of temperature and precipitation has significant negative correlation with poor harvest and famine. The drought has a more significant correlation with harvest and famine than flood. In 1736-1795 when was at the peak of the Qing dynasty, the sensitivity of poor harvest and famine to drought was significantly lower than in 1796-1911 when was in decline, because effective social response to disaster could reduce the risk of poor harvest and famine. Using the kernel density estimation method, three main high risk areas of famine were indentified: Fen River Valley in south Shanxi Province, south-central He'nan Province, and the junction of Hebei, Shandong and He'nan Province. In general, there is significant corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution of drought, poor harvest and famine, however, abnormally high probability of famine in south-central He'nan Province might be related to local special socio-economic vulnerability. This study would enhance our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and socioeconomic system. Further research would focus on the mechanism by which famine originated in the past, and the pathway through which climatic impacts were delivered in human society. 相似文献
12.
The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance. 相似文献
13.
China is a country prone to high frequency of natural catastrophic events. According to the natural disaster data from 1900 to 2011, the major disaster types include drought, earthquake, epidemic, extreme temperature, flood, mass movement wet and storm. The occurrence of natural disaster and economic loss is increased during the studied period. However, the death toll induced by natural disaster is decreased significantly. A new frame of social development and natural disaster is proposed to discuss the impact of population and GDP on the influence of disaster through the recording and reduction efforts. The results indicated that economic development contributes to the reduction in the impact of natural disaster on the people lives and society. New comprehensive integrated management, including international cooperation, should be established. 相似文献
14.
2016年6月18日7月21日,长江流域安徽段发生暴雨洪水,最大3d、7d雨量位居历史第一,重现期大于50年一遇,最大15d雨量位居历史第二,重现期接近50年一遇,至7月5日长江安徽段全线超警戒水位,给长江流域安徽段造成较为严重的洪涝灾害。收集、整理了本次暴雨洪水的资料,对暴雨的过程和成因进行了分析,并结合历史特征年资料进行了比较。结果表明:强降雨、降雨的空间分布以及前期长江底水高是2016年洪水总体水平位居历史第二的主要因素。 相似文献
15.
This study presents a methodology for risk analysis, assessment, combination, and regionalization of integrated drought and waterlogging disasters in Anhui Province, which is supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technique of natural disaster risk assessment from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, environmental science, and so on. Along with the global warming, the occurrences of water-related disasters become more frequent and serious. It is necessary to determine the mode of spatial distribution of water-related disaster risk. Based on the principle of natural disaster risk, natural conditions, and socioeconomic situation, drought and waterlogging disaster risk index, which combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and restorability, was developed by using combined weights, entropy, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Drought and waterlogging disaster risk zoning map was made out by using GIS spatial analysis technique and gridding GIS technique. It was used for comparing the relative risk of economic and life losses in different grids of Anhui Province. It can also be used to compare the situation of different levels of drought and waterlogging disaster combination risk in a similar place. The result shows that the northwestern and central parts of Anhui Province possess higher risk, while the southwestern and northeastern parts possess lower risk. The information obtained from statistical offices and remote sensing data in relation to results compiled were statistically evaluated. The results obtained from this study are specifically intended to support local and national governmental agencies on water-related disaster management. 相似文献
16.
南方红壤丘陵区洪涝和季节性干旱灾害并存,合理划分汛、枯水期可为旱涝灾害防控提供科学依据。本文选取并统计赣江上中游国家气象站、水文站旬最大1日降水量、旬最大3日降水量、旬降水总量和旬平均流量,采用集对分析,将赣江上中游流域汛期划分为2月1~28日为汛前期,3月1~31日为前汛期,4月1日~6月30日为主汛期,7月1日~9月10日为汛后期,9月11日~次年1月31日为枯水期。集对分析汛期分期结果与传统汛期相近,理论基础完善,可用于赣江上中游流域水资源综合管理。 相似文献
17.
Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support. 相似文献
18.
Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support. 相似文献
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