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1.
气候变化和人类活动对白洋淀水源区径流的影响(英文) 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
As the largest wetland in the North China Plain(NCP),the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in maintaining water balance and ecological health of NCP.In the past few decades,the decreasing streamflow in the Baiyangdian Basin associated with climate variability and human activities has caused a series of water and eco-environmental issues.In this study,we quantified the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake,based on analyses of hydrologic changes of the upper Tanghe river catchment(a sub-basin of the Baiyangdian Basin) from 1960 to 2008.Climate elasticity method and hydrological modeling method were used to distinguish the effects of climate variability and human activities.The results showed that the annual streamflow decreased significantly(P>0.05) by 1.7 mm/a and an abrupt change was identified around the year 1980.The quantification results indicated that climate variations accounted for 38%-40% of decreased streamflow,while human activities accounted for 60%-62%.Therefore,the effect of human activities played a dominant role on the decline of the streamflow in the water source area of the Baiyangdian Lake.To keep the ecosystem health of the Baiyangdian Lake,we suggest that minimum ecological water demand and integrated watershed management should be guaranteed in the future. 相似文献
2.
WU Shaohong CHAO Qingchen GAO Jiangbo LIU Lulu FENG Aiqing DENG Haoyu ZUO Liyuan LIU Wanlu 《地理学报(英文版)》2023,(3):429-448
Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy. Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change, which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change risk. This study establishes regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming targets. Results of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in China, indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of th... 相似文献
3.
Global large-scale urbanization and climate change have become indisputable scientific facts yet are unresolved issues, and are a common concern for mankind. The relationship between these two topics is unclear and it is not known how to deal appropriately at the scientific level with climate change in the process of urbanization. Further exploration of the science, management and practice, are needed to achieve global and regional sustainadevelopment. This paper first considers the basic facts concerning mass urbanization and climate change and summarizes the interactions and possible mechanisms of urbanization and climate change. Urbanization leads to the heat island effect, an uneven distribution of precipitation and extreme weather, together with a local-regional-global multi-scale superposition effect, which aggravates the consequences of global climate change. The impact of climate change on urbanization is mainly manifested in aspects such as changes of energy consumption, mortality, and the spread of infectious diseases, sea level rise, extreme weather damage to infrastructure, and water shortages. This paper also briefly reviews relevant international research programs and action coalitions and puts forward an analysis framework multi-dimensional sustainable urbanization which can adapt to and mitigate climate change, from the perspective of the four key dimensions—population, land use, economy, and society. It is imperative that we strengthen the interdisciplinary activities involving the natural and social sciences, take urbanization and other human activities into consideration of the land-atmosphere system, and explore the human-land-atmosphere coupling process. The adaptation and mitigation from the perspective of human activities, as represented by urbanization, might be the most critical and realistic way to deal with climate change. 相似文献
4.
Vegetation change is of significant concern because it plays a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and climate. Many studies have examined recent changes in vegetation growth and the associated drivers. These drivers include both natural and human activities, but few studies have identified the regulation factors. By employing normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) data, we analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation change in China and then explored the driving factors. It was f... 相似文献
5.
Sandy desertification in the Shule River Basin has expanded dramatically during the past 30 years. We evaluated the status, evolution, and main causes of sandy desertification by interpreting Landsat images which were acquired in 1978, 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010, and analyzing the relevant meteorological data. The results show there was 3,477.95 km2, 3,733.32 km2, 3,620.29 km2, 3,565.65 km2, and 3,557.88 km2 of sandy desertified land in 1978, 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively. From 1978 to 1990, not only the area of sandy desertified land （SDL） but also the degree of SDL levels increased. From 1990 to 2010 there was widespread restoration of SDL but the recovery trend of SDL gradually slowed. Although climate change contributes to expanding sandy desertification, human activities can either accelerate or reverse trends of natural sandy desertification. Some detrimental human activities can accelerate sandy desertification, but, conversely, desertification control measures such as the Three-North Shelter Forest Project and watershed rehabilitation programs in areas including the Shule River Basin resulted in many SDL being turned into grasslands or forest lands when shrubs and trees were planted to fix mobile sands at the edges of oases and cities. With population growth, much SDL has been reclaimed as farm land using water-saving agricultural methods or has been turned into built-up land as a result of urbanization. 相似文献
6.
Dual factors of climate and human on the hydrological process are reflected not only in changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of water resource amounts but also in the various characteristics of river flow regimes. Isolating and quantifying their contributions to these hydrological alterations helps us to comprehensively understand the response mechanism and patterns of hydrological process to the two kinds of factors. Here we develop a general framework using hydrological model and 33 indicators to describe hydrological process and quantify the impact from climate and human. And we select the Upper Minjiang River(UMR) as a case to explore its feasibility. The results indicate that our approach successfully recognizes the characteristics of river flow regimes in different scenarios and quantitatively separates the climate and human contributions to multi-dimensional hydrological alterations. Among these indicators, 26 of 33 indicators decrease over the past half-century(1961–2012) in the UMR, with change rates ranging from 1.3% to 33.2%, and the human impacts are the dominant factor affecting hydrological processes, with an average relative contribution rate of 58.6%. Climate change causes an increase in most indicators, with an average relative contribution rate of 41.4%. Specifically, changes in precipitation and reservoir operation may play a considerable role in inducing these alterations. The findings in this study help us better understand the response mechanism of hydrological process under changing environment and is conducive to climate change adaptation, water resource planning and ecological construction. 相似文献
7.
《地理学报(英文版)》2017,(6)
Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to ecosystem evapotranspiration(ET)and gross primary productivity(GPP)changes is important for adaptation assessment and sustainable development.Spatiotemporal patterns of ET and GPP were estimated from 2000 to 2014 over North China Plain(NCP)with a physical and remote sensing-based model.The contributions of climate change and human activities to ET and GPP trends were separated and quantified by the first difference de-trending method and multivariate regression.Results showed that annual ET and GPP increased weakly,with climate change and human activities contributing 0.188 mm yr~(–2) and 0.466 mm yr~(–2) to ET trend of 0.654 mm yr~(–2),and–1.321 g C m~(–2) yr~(–2) and 7.542 g C m~(–2) yr~(–2) to GPP trend of 6.221 g C m~(–2) yr~(–2),respectively.In cropland,the increasing trends mainly occurred in wheat growing stage;the contributions of climate change to wheat and maize were both negative.Precipitation and sunshine duration were the major climatic factors regulating ET and GPP trends.It is concluded that human activities are the main drivers to the long term tendencies of water consumption and gross primary productivity in the NCP. 相似文献
8.
皇甫川流域降水量和人类活动对径流量变化影响的定量评估(英文) 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
The runoff of some rivers in the world especially in the arid and semi-arid areas has decreased remarkably with global or regional climate change and enhanced human activities.The runoff decrease in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China has brought severe problems in livelihoods and ecology.To reveal the variation characteristics,trends of runoff and their influencing factors have been important scientific issues for drainage basin management.The objective of this study was to analyze the variation trends of the runoff and quantitatively assess the contributions of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change in the Huangfuchuan River Basin based on the measured data in 1960-2008.Two inflection points(turning years) of 1979 and 1998 for the accumulative runoff change,and one inflection point of 1979 for the accumulative precipitation change were identified using the methods of accumulative anomaly analysis.The linear relationships between year and accumulative runoff in 1960-1979,1980-1997 and 1998-2008 and between year and accumulative precipitation in 1960-1979 and 1980-2008 were fitted.A new method of slope change ratio of accumulative quantity(SCRAQ) was put forward and used in this study to calculate the contributions of different factors to the runoff change.Taking 1960-1979 as the base period,the contribution rate of the precipitation and human activities to the decreased runoff was 36.43% and 63.57% in 1980-1997,and 16.81% and 83.19% in 1998-2008,respectively.The results will play an important role in the drainage basin management.Moreover,the new method of SCRAQ can be applied in the quantitative evaluation of runoff change and impacts by different factors in the river basin of arid and semi-arid areas. 相似文献
9.
Global climate change has evolved from a scientific problem into an economic and political problem oI worlOwloe rater- est. National perspectives play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Mutual understanding of perspectives is nec- essary to result in rational policies and a consensus among stakeholders with divergent interests. Conceptual frameworks for understanding the problem of climate change in China, the largest developing country and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, are of great significance to national and international efforts to address the problems of climate change. Chinese perceptions of climate change as a sustainable development problem have recently been in tension with an emerging Western perspective that frames climate change as a security issue. This paper explores Chinese perceptions of climate change as expressed in recent governmental policy statements, public opinion surveys, and academic scholarship with a focus on publications in Chinese-language journals, often unfamiliar in the West. It looks at the relationship between Chinese research and policy and finds that the Chinese policy frame of climate change as a sustainable development problem draws from the body of domestic research and is reflective of the perspectives and multidisciplinary approach of Chinese researchers in areas of climate change. 相似文献
10.
中国沙漠化研究进展 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
王涛 《地理学报(英文版)》2004,14(4):387-400
Sandy desertification is land degradation characterized by wind erosion mainly resulted from the excessive human activities in arid, semiarid and part of sub-humid regions in northern China. The research on sandy desertification has experienced more than 5 decades of arduous course of the struggle along with the establishment and development of China‘s desert science. Researches in this field have made a great contribution to the national economic construction, and environmental protection. This paper focuses on presenting the major progress and achievements in the sandy desertification research during the last 50 years, including the stages of study on sandy desertification,background environment of sandy desertification and its changes, the conception, causes, process,monitoring and assessment of sandy desertification, the vegetation succession, landscape ecology, plant physiology, impacts on ecosystem, high-effective use of water and land resources and sustainable development in sandy desertified regions, sandy desertification control models and techniques etc. 相似文献
11.
气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价综述 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
气候变化和人类活动是导致沙漠化的两大驱动力,系统评价两者在沙漠化过程中的相对作用对于深入理解沙漠化过程的驱动力作用机理以及开展防沙治沙工作具有重要的意义。本研究从定性-半定量和定量研究两个方面对目前气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法进行了系统的梳理,认为目前的评价方法存在着主观性强、可重复操作性差、多基于行政单元而缺乏在连续的空间域上来评价气候变化和人类活动相对作用等不足。基于对以往研究的总结和笔者近阶段的相关研究成果,笔者认为开展气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的评价工作关键是突破两类驱动力相对作用在连续的空间域上进行评价和表达这一瓶颈的制约,并提出了以定量研究为核心,以NPP为衡量气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用的公共指标,通过拆分“驱动力作用-沙漠化土地动态响应”这一生态过程为若干可能情景来构建气候变化和人类活动在沙漠化过程中相对作用评价方法的思路。此外,在进行定量评价时,还需要考虑结果验证以及评价尺度这两个重点问题对评价结果和结论的影响 相似文献
12.
气候变化和人类活动在榆林市荒漠化过程中的相对作用 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
针对已有研究的不足,提出一个集成时序和空间两方面特征的植被-气候时空关系统计模型,并用来在栅格尺度上定量区分陕西省榆林市荒漠化动态中气候变化和人类活动的相对作用。结果显示,1986-2000年,榆林市荒漠化发展主要发生在南部丘陵沟壑区,逆转主要发生在北部风沙草滩区,这一空间格局特别明显且在研究期内没有发生根本改变。从第1时段(1986-1990年)至第2时段(1991-1995年),荒漠化整体上处于发展状态,且无论是荒漠化发展区还是逆转区,人类活动的作用均占据绝对主导地位,分别为98.7%和101.4%,气候变化的作用甚微;从第2时段(1991-1995年)至第3时段(1996-2000年),荒漠化过程整体上达到稳定态势,在荒漠化发展区,气候变化和人类活动的作用基本相当,分别为46.2%和53.8%,而在荒漠化逆转区,人类活动的作用达到了119.0%,气候变化的作用则为-19.0%。另外,气候变化和人类活动的相对作用有很大的空间异质性。 相似文献
13.
1976-2007年青海省刚察县土地沙漠化驱动力分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
土地沙漠化是青海湖沿岸地区最严重的生态环境问题之一.本文选取青海湖北岸的刚察气象站19582007年的气象数据和刚察县1976-2007年的社会经济资料,对近30年来刚察县土地沙漠化的驱动力进行主成分分析.结果表明,1976-2007年,刚察县沙漠化土地面积的增加是自然因素和人为因素综合作用的结果,尤以年平均风速和耕地面积变量的贡献率最大.刚察县沙漠化土地的扩张在不同时间段的影响因素不同.1976 1987年,沙漠化面积的扩张是气温逐渐回暖、降水回升的过程中人为因素影响的结果;1987 1995年,沙漠化土地增加了17.28 km2,沙漠化土地的扩张是自然因素和人为因素叠加的结果,以自然因素为主导,人为因素起加剧的效果;1995 2007年,在暖湿、风速降低的气候环境下,沙漠化土地的扩张是人为因素作用的的结果.沙漠化扩张过程是高寒脆弱不稳定的生态系统在气候干湿波动、人类活动与沙漠化土地之间复杂的相互反馈作用下形成的. 相似文献
14.
西藏"一江两河"中部流域地区土地沙漠化变化的驱动因素分析 总被引：21，自引：11，他引：10
土地利用/覆盖变化及其驱动力是当前研究的热点问题,现代土地沙漠化变化的机制及其驱动因素的研究更倍受关注。选择西藏"一江两河"中部流域地区为研究区域,依据该区1991年与1997年的两期土地沙漠化类型与面积数据,利用定量方法分析了同期土地沙漠化的发展变化与区内各种自然与人文因子间的数量关系,以定量辩识其变化的驱动因素。分析结果表明,该区近期土地沙漠化的变化是在多种气候因子、社会因子与经济因子共同驱动下自然变化过程与人为变化过程相互影响的结果,其中,自然驱动因素主要是风力与干旱程度,人为驱动因素主要是农作物播种面积与牲畜(超载)数量,但比较之下自然驱动因素的作用相对稍重,具有相对主导性。 相似文献
15.
鄂尔多斯市地处温带草原向荒漠草原过渡的半干旱区,是中国沙漠化问题较为严重的区域之一,其土地沙漠化发展和逆转过程及影响因素在北方农牧交错带具有代表性。以7期Landsat卫星遥感数据为信息源提取沙漠化土地类型及程度的时空格局信息,分析了该地区自1975年以来的土地沙漠化过程,并结合气象及社会经济数据采用主成分分析法对驱动因子进行定量分析。结果表明：在脆弱生态环境背景下,鄂尔多斯市土地沙漠化受人口数量增加、过垦及过牧等人为因素的严重影响。不同时段土地沙漠化发展的方向与驱动力都有所不同,1975-2000年是土地沙漠化的急剧发展期,驱动力以人为因素为主导,自然因素为基础;2000-2015年是土地沙漠化的逆转期,驱动力以自然因素为主,人为因素为辅。 相似文献
16.
干旱区土地荒漠化中人类因素分析 总被引：28，自引：16，他引：12
目前干旱区突出的矛盾是,人类活动对环境的负效应在总体上已导致以土地荒漠化急剧发展为主的生态环境质量显著下降。基于1994年“联合国防治荒漠化公约”给出的土地荒漠化概念和干旱区的特点,划分土地荒漠化的自然因素和人为因素。通过人类活动的涵义和特点的探讨,首次全面和综合地分析了土地荒漠化发展中的人类活动因素,包括人类活动的驱动作用、人类各种活动方式的作用和人类活动的管理作用等。依据一定的原则,构建出适用于干旱区人类活动对土地荒漠化作用的指标体系,该指标体系多为量化指标并可反映人类活动的动态变化,可为人类活动在土地荒漠化中作用的更进一步(定量)研究提供依据。 相似文献
17.
科尔沁地区现代沙漠化过程的驱动因素分析 总被引：64，自引：36，他引：28
基于近50a科尔沁地区沙漠化土地发展-再发展-逆转的时空变化的研究结果, 以气候波动和人类活动变化作为主驱动因子, 探讨现代沙漠化过程的驱动因素的作用。近40多年气候的波动在一定程度上直接地通过不同时期的降水-温度组合影响着沙漠化的进程, 间接地通过人类对气候波动的响应而产生的经济活动来加速沙漠化的进程。尽管科尔沁地区的气候驱动因子呈现出有利于沙漠化发展过程的趋势, 但在近10多年来, 这种驱动力的作用被有利于沙漠化逆转过程的驱动力所抵消。人类活动是研究区沙漠化过程中更加活跃的驱动因子, 体现在土地利用方式的转变和强度的增加, 以及由此而产生的对自然植被群落毁灭性的破坏而加速了沙漠化的进程。以土壤风蚀为例, 这种加速可以是自然条件下的4~10倍; 随着沙漠化程度的加剧, 所产生的在土壤养分、生物多样性和生物生产量等方面退化的加速也与自然条件下的情况相差3~10倍以上。同样是人类活动, 在合理的土地利用、采取各种沙漠化防治措施的情况下, 又可使沙漠化过程逆转。从这一点上来说, 人为驱动因素应是起绝对主导作用的。 相似文献
18.
中国沙漠化过程中人文作用研究进展 总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1
沙漠化过程中的人文作用研究是沙漠化的重要研究领域,是沙漠科学体系的重要组成部分。国内在人文因素在沙漠化过程中的作用、人文活动对沙漠化的作用机理、历史上沙漠化与人文活动关系、沙漠化中的人文作用定量分析研究、人文活动的驱动因子取得了重大进展,沙漠化治理的技术、模式、策略等方面研究也取得了重要成果。本文试图对沙漠化中人文作用研究做简要综述,并展望未来沙漠化人文作用研究。认为未来沙漠化人文作用研究要以人的行为作为研究的主题,结合多个学科综合研究,把更多研究方法应用到这项研究中,同时拓展沙漠化人文作用研究的领域。 相似文献
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20.
根据1975—2018年民勤绿洲土地沙漠化分类体系及遥感影像数据,探究了民勤绿洲沙漠化时空变化过程;选取影响绿洲沙漠化的自然与人为驱动因子,运用主成分分析方法定量评价了民勤绿洲沙漠化过程的主要驱动力。结果表明：1975—2018年沙漠化程度以重度沙漠化为主,轻度、中度、重度和严重沙漠化面积均呈减少趋势,以2000年为界表现为先发展后逆转趋势;1975—2000年,轻度、中度、重度沙漠化重心总体向东北方向迁移,严重沙漠化的重心向西迁移,沙漠化有向绿洲东北部和巴丹吉林沙漠发展的趋势;2000—2018年轻度沙漠化的重心向西北方向迁移,中度、重度和严重沙漠化重心相对稳定,绿洲沙漠化发展得到明显控制。在绿洲沙漠化过程中,人为因素贡献率为39.53%,自然与人为综合贡献率为26.58%,自然因素贡献率为10.77%,人为因素是民勤绿洲沙漠化的主要驱动力。水资源极度匮乏是绿洲沙漠化的决定因素,在以后的防沙治沙工作中,合理调控人类的生产经营活动,优化干旱区水资源配置,可从源头上治理民勤绿洲的沙漠化。 相似文献