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YongChao Lan ZhengYao M YongPing Shen ChengFang L Jie Song XingLin Hu HongWei Din 《寒旱区科学》2011,3(3):0274-0280
The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends on variation of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and the correlativity between temperature, precipitation, and runoff were analyzed based on the past 40 years of observational data from the correlative hydrological and weather stations in the study areas. Various weather scene combinations are assumed and the response models of runoff to climate change are established in order to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the study areas based on the foregoing analysis. Results show that all variations of temperature, precipitation, and runoff overall present an oscillating and increasing trend since the 1960s and this increase are quite evident after 1990. There is a markedly positive correlation between mountain runoff, temperature, and precipitation while there are obvious regional differences of responding degree to precipitation and temperature between mountain runoff of Urumqi River and Kaidu River Basins. Also, mountain runoff of Urumqi River Basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu River Basin, and mountain runoff of Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Urumqi River Basin. 相似文献
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巴丹吉林沙漠周边地区近50 a来气候变化特征 总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3
利用巴丹吉林沙漠周边9个气象站的1960—2009年逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量、平均相对湿度和日照时数及1960—2008年逐月平均风速的观测资料,运用线性回归、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall突变检验分析了该区近50 a来气候变化特征。结果表明,近50 a来,巴丹吉林沙漠周边地区年平均气温以0.40 ℃/10a的速率显著升高;四季平均气温的升高亦很显著,以冬季的升温速率最大;年、季节平均最高气温和平均最低气温均呈显著升高趋势;年、季平均日较差则显著减小,且以最低气温的升温速率大于最高气温的升温速率为特点。年降水量以0.87 mm/10a的速率呈不显著增加趋势;各季节降水量变化略有差异且均不显著,春季降水量略有减少,夏、秋和冬季略有增加。湿润指数的变化不明显,总体来看,年和冬季湿润指数略有增大,春、夏和秋季湿润指数略有减小。年日照时数以34.8 h/10a的速率显著增加,各季节日照时数亦均有增加趋势,其中春季增加最为明显。年平均风速以-0.092 m·s-1·(10a)-1的速率呈显著减小趋势;各季节平均风速均显著减小,以冬季的减小速率最大。 相似文献
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黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征 总被引：22，自引：1，他引：22
突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。 相似文献
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1961—2010年讨赖河山区径流变化特征及其驱动因素 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以1961—2010年讨赖河山区气温、降水和径流资料为基础,综合运用线性趋势、距平百分比、重标极差、Mann-Kendall突变检测、小波变换和多元线性回归等多种数理分析方法,研究了讨赖河山区径流的年内和年际变化规律,并探讨了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：径流年内分配极不均匀且呈单峰型分布,汛期径流占年径流的比重为62.11%。径流经历了“丰-枯-丰-枯”4次波动,在1984年发生由多到少的显著性突变,但整体呈不显著减少趋势且具有持久性。径流在22年准周期上振荡最为明显,经历了“少-多-少-多-少-多-少”7次循环交替,2010—2015年径流可能再次偏多。近50年来山区气温呈“稳定波动-快速上升”变化,降水量呈显著增加趋势,但山区降水转化为径流的比例减少。气温升高和降水量增加引起的蒸散发增加,同时气候变化和人类活动共同作用下的地表覆盖类型的变化均对径流变化产生影响。 相似文献
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SUN Huilan CHEN Yaning LI Weihong LI Feng CHEN Yapeng HAO Xingming YANG Yuhui 《地理学报》2010,20(5):652-666
In this paper, the monthly precipitation and temperature data collected at 7 stations in the Ili River Basin from 1961 to 2007 were analyzed by means of simple regression analysis, running mean, db6 wavelet function and Mann-Kendall test. This study revealed the characteristics of climate change and abrupt change points of precipitation and temperature during different time scales in the Ili River Basin within the past 50 years. The results showed that the precipitation increased from the mid-1980s until 2000 and has continued to increase at a smaller magnitude since 2000. Over the studied period, the precipitation increased significantly during the summer and winter months. The temperature increased greatly in the late 1980s, and has continued to show an increasing trend from the year 2000 to present. The temperature increases were most significant during the summer, autumn and winter months. In terms of different geographies, the temperature increase was significant during the winter in the plains and hilly regions; the increase was also significant during autumn in the intermontane basins. The climate change trends in the Ili River Basin were consistent with the changing trends of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the plateau monsoon. 相似文献
7.
新疆伊犁河流域气候变化(英文) 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
In this paper, the monthly precipitation and temperature data collected at 7 stations in the Ili River Basin from 1961 to
2007 were analyzed by means of simple regression analysis, running mean, db6 wavelet function and Mann-Kendall test. This
study revealed the characteristics of climate change and abrupt change points of precipitation and temperature during different
time scales in the Ili River Basin within the past 50 years. The results showed that the precipitation increased from the
mid-1980s until 2000 and has continued to increase at a smaller magnitude since 2000. Over the studied period, the precipitation
increased significantly during the summer and winter months. The temperature increased greatly in the late 1980s, and has
continued to show an increasing trend from the year 2000 to present. The temperature increases were most significant during
the summer, autumn and winter months. In terms of different geographies, the temperature increase was significant during the
winter in the plains and hilly regions; the increase was also significant during autumn in the intermontane basins. The climate
change trends in the Ili River Basin were consistent with the changing trends of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the plateau
monsoon. 相似文献
8.
庐山旅游区气候变化特征及其影响因素分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
采用Mann-Kendall方法,对1955~2008年庐山旅游区气候要素进行变化趋势分析和突变检验,结果表明,近54 a来气温和降水都出现了不同程度的差异性升高和增加趋势。庐山旅游区年平均气温上升趋势较显著,20世纪90年代以来年平均气温明显偏高,并在1996年左右发生了突变。极端最高气温升高幅度微弱,但极端最低气温上升趋势显著,且升高幅度较大。年降水量呈微弱的增加趋势,20世纪70年代频繁波动突变,且20世纪70年代以来年降水量都较以前偏高,其中20世纪90年代最高。近年来,最大日暴雨量和年暴雨日数都呈增加趋势,20世纪90年代是最大日暴雨量和暴雨日数的最高时期。夏秋季节暴雨频繁,暴雨6月最多,大暴雨8月最多,且年降水量增加趋势的贡献可能是夏秋季节极端降水事件增加的结果。 相似文献
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拉萨河流域近50 年来径流变化趋势分析 总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10
以拉萨水文站以上流域为研究区, 基于拉萨水文站和唐加水文站的水文实测数据和当雄 县等3 个气象站的气候观测数据, 统计分析了1956~2003 年研究区径流的年内、年际变化, 利用 Mann- Kendall 趋势分析法和Pettitt 变点检验法分析了拉萨河流域径流的变化特征, 采用多元回 归方法分析了气候因素( 气温、降水) 对径流变化的影响。结果表明: ( 1) 研究时段内, 径流年际变 化波动较大, 在1970 年前后径流发生了较大的突变, 呈现出明显的增加趋势, 尤以近20 年来的 趋势最大; 月均径流的年际变化中, 有增加趋势的主要分布在冬半年( 11～4 月) 和夏半年的个别 月份( 5、7、9 月) ; ( 2) 流域内气候变化趋势与径流变化趋势基本一致, 但不同月/年均径流受不同 气候因素影响, 主要表现在年平均尺度上受降水影响较大, 在月平均尺度上, 夏半年径流增加趋 势受降水增加影响较大, 而冬半年径流变化则主要与气温有较显著相关性, 其主要原因可能是全 球变暖导致冰川融水增加。 相似文献
10.
LIN Xuedong ZHANG Yili YAO Zhijun GONG Tongliang WANG Hong CHU Duo LIU Linshan ZHANG Fei 《地理学报》2008,18(1):95-106
Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956?2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations (Lhasa and Tanggya) and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations (Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya). The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points (around 1970 and the early 1980s), after which the runoff tended to in-crease and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year (November to April) and some other months (May, July and September). (2) The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season. 相似文献
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1933~2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
选取黄河中游区实施水土保持最早的一级支流无定河流域,利用滑动-T、曼-肯德尔和山本等3种突变检测方法相互验证,确定了在受人类活动显著影响下,径流的突变年份为1972年,自此径流平均减少3.55×108m3;基于径流突变前降水与径流的显著相关性,并借助地统计克里格空间插值法,重建1933~2012年无定河流域出口控制水位站天然径流变化序列。采用小波分析法诊断天然径流序列的周期变化,结果显示：天然年径流存在6个不同时间尺度的“丰-枯”演变特征,其平均周期分别对应着35.5、22.2、16.8、12.2、9.3和3.3 a。 相似文献
12.
To reveal the changing trend and annual distribution of the surface water hydrology and the local climate in the Bayanbuluk alpine-cold wetlands in the past 50 years, we used temperature, precipitation, different rank precipitation days, evaporation, water vapor pressure, relative humidity, dust storm days and snow depth to analyze their temporal variations. We conclude that there were no distinct changes in annual mean temperature, and no obvious changes in the maximum or minimum temperatures. Precipitation in warm season was the main water source in the wetlands of the study area and accounted for 92.0% of the annual total. Precipitation dropped to the lowest in the mid-1980s in the past 50 years and then increased gradually. The runoff of the Kaidu River has increased since 1987 which has a good linear response to the annual precipitation and mean temperature in Bayanbuluk alpine-cold wetland. Climate change also affected ecosystems in this area due to its direct relations to the surface water environment. 相似文献
13.
1961-2005年水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响(英文) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area,the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961-2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station(Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations.Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method.The referenced period(1961-1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period(1981-2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961-2005 applying double accumulative curve method,mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique.Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model,impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively.The major results could be summarized as follows:(1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s,the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970.(2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities.(3) During 1981-1990,1991-2000,2001-2005 and 1981-2005,the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108,0.28×108,1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%,7.13%,40.71% and 23.79% accordingly.Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period. 相似文献
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云南红河流域径流的时空分布变化规律 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
利用红河流域32个气象站1960-2000年逐月降水、气温、蒸发等实测资料,元江、李仙江和盘龙河1956-2000年径流量资料,使用GIS技术支持以及Kendall检验法、方差分析法、累积距平法,分析云南红河流域径流的时空变化规律,重点探讨径流时空分布变化与红河流域河谷与山脉的"通道-阻隔"作用的关联,得出如下结论:(1)在红河流域河谷与山脉的"通道-阻隔"作用的影响下,降水量和径流深等值线在空间上呈西北-东南向分布,分布模式与河谷/山脉的走向基本一致,并在哀牢山北段和李仙江下游地区形成两个高值区.(2)在多年平均尺度上,红河流域河谷与山脉的"通道-阻隔"作用对径流变化的地域差异影响最大,其次是降雨,对气温则不明显:李仙江的降水量明显大于哀牢山东部的元江和盘龙河区,其降水量变化的相对偏差则小于它们,反映出哀牢山的阻隔效应;三个区的平均气温差别不大,反映出在较大的时间尺度上受该区特殊环境格局的"通道-阻隔"作用不明显;多数降雨、径流和气温特征值及其出现时间的变化,在盘龙河与元江及李仙江都明显不同,反映出红河流域山脉的阻隔作用明显.(3)在区域气候变化及红河流域河谷与山脉"通道-阻隔"作用的叠加影响下,红河流域的径流变化在东西方向上差异明显:沿红河断裂发育的元江流域的径流量表现出上升的趋势,而西部的李仙江和东部的盘龙河径流量呈现出减少的趋势;元江和李仙江的年径流有一个准5年的变化周期,而盘龙河则有一个准8年的变化周期;三个区域的径流量变化表现出不一致的阶段性. 相似文献
15.
新疆克里雅河源流区径流变化与气候因子关系的非线性分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用克里雅河源流区兰干站1957～2009年的年径流量、气温和降水量实测数据,借助小波分析和R/S分析等方法探讨了径流量、气温和降水量的变化趋势及多时间尺度相关性。结果表明:(1)年径流量与气温和降水量存在明显的正相关关系并皆呈增加趋势,结合R/S分析,这种增加趋势在未来的50a仍将可能持续。(2)研究区年径流量、气温和降水量均存在9年的年际变化周期,而在年代际上由于气温和降水量周期性不同致使径流量的周期为15年。另外,三者在未来的20年存在不同的周期性突变。(3)克里雅河源流区径流量与气温和降水量存在显著的非线性相关关系。年径流量的变化是气温和降水量综合作用的结果。 相似文献
16.
基于1973-2010年长系列日降水、径流数据,利用降水径流双累积曲线、M-K统计检验和降水集中度等方法,结合HIMS模型模拟结果,分析了潮河流域降水-径流关系的变化及其原因。得到的主要结论如下：（1）近38年来,潮河流域降水变化较小,但径流下降趋势显著,降水-径流关系发生了两次突变,即在1973-1983年、1984-1998年和1999-2010年三个阶段降水-径流关系存在明显差异;（2）大雨日降水总和（P≥20）与径流深关系较为密切,其变化是导致降水-径流关系在1983年发生突变的主要驱动因子;（3）HIMS模型模拟结果显示,1999-2010年潮河流域下垫面条件较前两阶段变化明显,人类活动引起的减水效应由第二阶段的14.93%增加至第三阶段的25.78%,人类活动是导致降水-径流关系在1998年发生突变的主要驱动因子。 相似文献
17.
开都河流域气候变化对地表水的影响 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
1IntroductionWetlands, forests and oceans are the three main ecosystems with the highest ecological values in the world. According to the data of United Nations Environment Programme in 2002, the annual production value of the wetland ecosystems per hecta… 相似文献
18.
1981-2010 年柴达木盆地气候要素变化特征及湖泊和植被响应 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
以1981-2010 年柴达木盆地及其周边气象站点逐月气温和降水量资料为基础, 通过气候趋势分析、气候突变分析等方法, 研究了柴达木盆地气候要素的变化特征, 并结合Landsat TM/ETM+影像、NOAA/AVHRR-NDVI和EOS/MODIS-NDVI 数据, 研究了近30 年来柴达木盆地湖泊面积和植被生长的动态变化及其对气候要素的响应。结果表明:① 1981-2010 年, 柴达木盆地气温整体升高, 秋冬增幅最为明显, 年平均气温在1997 年发生暖突变, 1998 年以后升温趋势显著。② 1981-2010 年, 柴达木盆地年可利用降水量经历了“减少—增加—减少—增加”的变化, 但整体呈增加趋势, 1980-1985 年、1990-2001 年, 年可利用降水量呈减少趋势;1985-1990 年、2001-2010 年, 年可利用降水量呈增加趋势。③ 柴达木盆地湖泊面积受夏季可利用降水量影响显著, 1985-2010 年, 托素和冬给措纳湖泊面积呈“扩张—萎缩—扩张”变化;1985-1990 年, 湖面轻微扩张;1990-2001 年, 湖面明显萎缩;2001 年以后, 湖面显著扩张。④ 柴达木盆地植被生长受生长季可利用降水量影响显著, 1982-2010 年柴达木盆地植被生长呈“退化—改善—退化—改善”变化, 但整体呈改善趋势;1982-1985 年植被轻微退化, 1985-1990 年植被轻微改善, 1990-2001 年植被显著退化, 2001 年以后植被显著改善。 相似文献
19.
探究全球变暖下的尼洋河流域极端气候变化特征及原因,对于科学支撑西藏地区的极端气候灾害防治和生态安全保障等具有重要意义。本文基于尼洋河流域1960—2019年逐日降水及气温数据,采用极端气候指标法、Sen's斜率估计法、MK趋势及突变检验法、GIS空间分析法从降水、气温两个角度分析近60年尼洋河流域极端气候时空分布特征,并结合大气环流因子,使用地理探测器方法探讨时空分布特征的可能成因。结果表明：在时间上,尼洋河流域极端气候整体呈现暖湿化的变化趋势。极端降水的降水量、降水强度、降水日数均呈现增加趋势,极端气温的高温极值、低温极值均呈现增大趋势,低温日数呈现减少趋势。在空间上,尼洋河流域极端气候变化存在明显的空间分异性。极端降水整体自东向西逐渐减少、极端气温整体自东南向西北逐渐降低。尼洋河河道作为水汽通道,有一定的增温、保温作用,各极端气候指标沿着河道呈现出连续的极值点。副热带高压、青藏高压对尼洋河流域暖湿化的变化起到了正向增强作用,极涡、北大西洋涛动则相反。以坡度为代表的地形因子、以NDVI为代表的下垫面因子分别是影响极端降水、极端气温空间分布的最主要的环境因子,高程对极端降水、气温的空间分布均起到了重要的作用。 相似文献
20.
鄱阳湖流域水沙时空演变特征及其机理 总被引：12，自引：1，他引：11
运用改进的Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势与突变检验以及线性回归分析等方法,系统分析了鄱阳湖流域的赣江、抚河、信江、饶河和修河等五大支流的5个主要水文控制站(外洲、李家渡、梅港、虎山、万家埠)1956-2005年的水沙序列,在系统搜集流域内水库信息的基础上,深入探讨了流域内水沙变化的原因.研究结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖流域各支流的水沙变化特征相异;除李家渡站径流无明显变化外,其余4站都有增加趋势(但未达到95%的置信度水平1.五大支流的输沙量变化比较复杂,外洲站、李家渡、梅港站和虎山站的输沙量在1985年以后减少的趋势显著,而万家埠站的输沙量直到1999年才开始减少;(2)森林覆盖率对输沙量变化的影响远远大于其对径流变化的影响,森林对减少湿季径流量的作用不明显,但对枯季径流量增加的影响显著.(3)水利设施(尤其是水库)对五大支流的水沙变化影响很大,尤其对输沙量的影响最为明显,这也是鄱阳湖流域大部分水文观测站输沙量减少的主要原因. 相似文献