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1.
Accurate rainfall distribution is difficult to acquire based on limited meteorological stations, especially in remote areas like high mountains and deserts. The Hexi Corridor and its adjacent regions （including the Qilian Mountains and the Alxa Plateau） are typical districts where there are only 30 available rain gauges. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） data provide a possible solution. After precision analysis of monthly 0.25 degree resolution TRMM 3B43 data from 1998 to 2012, we find that the correlations between TRMM 3B43 estimates and rain gauge precipitation are significant overall and in each station around the Hexi Corridor; however, the biases of annual precipitation differ in different stations and are seriously overestimated in most of the sites. Thus, Inverse Distance Weighting （IDW） interpolation method was used to rectify TRMM data based on the difference between TRMM 3B43 estimates and rain gauge observations. The results show that rectified TRMM data present more details than rain gauges in remote areas where there are few stations, alt- hough they show high coherence of distribution. Precipitation decreases from southeast to northwest on an annual and seasonal scale. There are three rainfall centers （〉500 mm） including Menyuan, Qilian and Toson Lake, and two low rain- fall centers （〈50 mm） including Dunhuang and Ejin Banner. Meanwhile, precipitation in most of the study area presents an increasing trend; especially in northern Qilian Mountains （〉5 mm/a）, Badain Jaran Desert （〉2 mm/a）, Toson Lake （〉20 mm/a） and Qingtu Lake （〉20 ram/a） which shows a significant increasing trend, while precipitation in Hala Lake （〈-2 mm/a） and Tengger Desert （〈-3 mm/a） demonstrates a decreasing trend.  相似文献   

2.
Rainstorms are one of the extreme rainfall events that cause serious disasters, such as urban flooding and mountain torrents. Traditional studies have used rain gauge observations to analyze rainstorm events, but relevant information is usually missing in gauge-sparse areas. Satellite-derived precipitation datasets serve as excellent supplements or substitutes for the gauge observations. By developing a grid-based rainstorm-identification tool, we used the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission(TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA) time series product to reveal the spatial and temporal variabilities of rainstorms over China during 1998–2017. Significant patterns of both increasing and decreasing rainstorm occurrences were detected, with no spatially uniform trend being observed across the whole country. There was an increase in the area being affected by rainstorms during the 20-year period, with rainstorm centers shifting along the southwest–northeast direction. Rainstorm occurrence was found to be correlated with local total precipitation. By comparing rainstorm occurrence with climate variables such as the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we also found that climate change was likely to be the primary reason for rainstorm occurrence in China. This study complements previous studies that used gauge observations by providing a better understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of China's rainstorms.  相似文献   

3.
华北平原降水的长期趋势分析(英文)   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  
The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important food grain producing area in China and has suffered from serious water shortages. To capture variation water availability, it is necessary to have an analysis of changing trends in precipitation. This study, based on daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in NCP records passed the homogeneity test, analyzed the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the MannKendall (M-K) test and Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that monthly precipitation in winter had a significant increasing trend in most parts, while monthly precipitation in July to September showed a decreasing trend in some parts of NCP. No significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of NCP.A significant decreasing trend was detected for the maximum no-rain duration and annual rain days in the major part of NCP. It was concluded that the changing trend of precipitation in NCP had an apparent seasonal and regional pattern, i.e., precipitation showed an obvious increasing trend in winter, but a decreasing trend in the rainy season (July to September), and the changing trend was more apparent in the northern part than in the southern and middle parts. This implies that with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in NCP tends to decline with an increasing of precipitation in winter season, and a decreasing in rainy season, particularly in the sub-humid northern part.  相似文献   

4.
The basic data for this research comprise the outgoing long-wave radiation(OLR) data observed by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) series satellites from June 1974 through December 2005 over the area of 75°-105°E and 25°-40°N(totaling 91 grid zones when the horizontal resolution is 2.5° longitude by 2.5° latitude) and the monthly rainfall data recorded,from 1961 through 2005,by 93 conventional meteorological stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on the research of the relation between rainfall and OLR and climate regionalization,a mathematic model was established for each region and grid zone,which is applied to estimate the monthly rainfall and then to estimate the monthly latent heat resulting from the condensation of precipitation year by year from 1961 through 2005.The results indicated that the multi-year average precipitation is 401.5 mm and the condensation latent heat is 18.55×1020 J in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau;the increasing rate of condensation latent heat is 0.218×1020J/10a in the recent 45 years;that is to say,it will increase 1.2 percent in each decade.Furthermore,the total condensation latent heat and its variation rate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are slightly larger than in the east to the plateau.  相似文献   

5.
Rainfall estimate in arid region using passive microwave remote sensing techniques has been a complex issue for some time.The main reason for this difficulty is that the high and variable emissivity of land surfaces greatly aggravates the complexity of the signatures from the rain cloud.The Xinjiang area,located in the northwest of China,holds all the typical characteristics of arid climate.A rainfall algorithm has been developed for this region by using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System(AMSR-E) measurements.The algorithm attempts to use all 12 chan-nels on the AMSR-E instrument and a two-step method calibrated over 11 days of hourly rain-gauge data.First,Stepwise Discriminant Analysis(SDA) used to optimally estimate rain pixels based on all 12 channels,although only three channels were found to be necessary.Next,a rain predicator scattering index was used to estimate rain rates.A linear relationship between the rain rates and the scattering index above the threshold of 3.0K was constructed with a simple approximately linear function.The estimated rain rates were compared with the rain-gauge data used to calibrate the method,and a good relationship was found with a root-mean-square error of 2.1mm/h.The numerical calculations and comparisons show that the algorithm works well in the Xinjiang area.  相似文献   

6.
Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series (AM) and peak over threshold series (POT) are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme precipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Generalized Pareto distribution (GP) and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.  相似文献   

7.
水文循环模拟中蒸散发估算方法综述(英文)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Actual evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle and a sole term that links land surface water balance and land surface energy balance.Evapotranspiration plays a key role in simulating hydrological effect of climate change,and a review of evapotranspiration estimation methods in hydrological models is of vital importance.This paper firstly summarizes the evapotranspiration estimation methods applied in hydrological models and then classifies them into the integrated converting methods and the classification gathering methods by their mechanism.Integrated converting methods are usually used in hydrological models and two differences exist among them:one is in the potential evaporation estimation methods,while the other in the function for defining relationship between potential evaporation and actual evapotranspiration.Due to the higher information requirements of the Penman-Monteith method and the existing data uncertainty,simplified empirical methods for calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration are widely used in hydrological models.Different evapotranspiration calculation methods are used depending on the complexity of the hydrological model,and importance and difficulty in the selection of the most suitable evapotranspiration methods is discussed.Finally,this paper points out the prospective development trends of the evapotranspiration estimating methods in hydrological modeling.  相似文献   

8.
土地覆盖与气候变化对黄河源区径流的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory.Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2℃ and precipitation increases by 20%,catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.  相似文献   

9.
Forecasting of rainfall and subsequent river runoff is important for many operational problems and applications related to hydrology. Modeling river runoff often requires rigorous mathematical analysis of vast historical data to arrive at reasonable conclusions. In this paper we have applied the stochastic method to characterize and predict river runoffofthe perennial Kulfo River in southem Ethiopia. The time series analysis based auto regressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） approach is applied to mean monthly runoff data with 10 and 20 years spans. The varying length of the input runoff data is shown to influence the forecasting efficiency of the stochastic process. Preprocessing of the runoff time series data indicated that the data do not follow a seasonal pattern. Our forecasts were made using parsimonious non seasonal ARIMA models and the results were compared to actual 10-year and 20-year mean monthly runoff data of the Kulfo River. Our results indicate that river runoff forecasts based upon the 10-year data are more accurate and efficient than the model based on the 20-year time series.  相似文献   

10.
The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.  相似文献   

11.
大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.  相似文献   

12.
Hydrological processes were compared,with and without the influence of precipitation on discharge,to identify the differences between glacierized and non-glacierized catchments in the Urumqi River source region,on the northern slope of the eastern Tianshan Mountains,during the melting season(May-September) in 2011.The study was based on hydrological data observed at 10-min intervals,meteorological data observed at 15-min intervals,and glacier melting and snow observations from the Empty Cirque,Zongkong,and Urumqi Glacier No.1 gauging stations.The results indicated that the discharge differed markedly among the three gauging stations.The daily discharge was more than the nightly discharge at the Glacier No.1 gauging station,which contrasted with the patterns observed at the Zongkong and Empty Cirque gauging stations.There was a clear daily variation in the discharge at the three gauging stations,with differences in the magnitude and duration of the peak discharge.When precipitation was not considered,the time-lags between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature were 1-3 h,10-16 h,and 5-11 h at the Glacier No.1,Empty Cirque,and Zongkong gauging stations,respectively.When precipitation was taken into consideration,the corresponding time-lags were 0-1 h,13 h,and 6-7 h,respectively.Therefore,the duration from the generation of discharge to confluence was the shortest in the glacierized catchment and the longest in the catchment where was mainly covered by snow.It was also shown that the hydrological process from the generation of discharge to confluence shortened when precipitation was considered.The factors influencing changes in the discharge among the three gauging stations were different.For Glacier No.1 station,the discharge was mainly controlled by heat conditions in the glacierized region,and the discharge displayed an accelerated growth when the temperature exceeded 5℃ in the melt season.It was found that the englacial and subglacial drainage channel of Glacier No.1 had become simpler during the past 20 years.Its weaker retardance and storage of glacier melting water resulted in rapid discharge confluence.It was also shown that the discharge curve and the time-lag between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature could be used to reveal the evolution of the drainage system and the process of glacier and snow melting at different levels of glacier coverage.  相似文献   

13.
Theoretical difficulties for mapping and for estimating river regime characteristics in a large-scale basin remain because of the nature of the variable under study: river flows are related to a specific area, i.e. the drainage basin, and are hierarchically organized in space through the river network with upstream-downstream dependencies. Another limitation is there are not enough gauge stations in developing countries. This presentation aims at de-veloping the hydro-stochastic approach for producing choropleth maps of average annual runoff and computing mean discharge along the main river network for a large-scale basin. The approach applied to mean annual runoff is based on geostatistical interpolation proce-dures coupled with water balance and data uncertainty analyses. It is proved by an applica-tion in the upstream at Bengbu in the Huaihe River Basin, a typical large-scale basin in China. Hydro-stochasitic approach in a first step interpolates to a regular grid net and in a second step the grid values are integrated along rivers. The interpolation scheme includes a con-straint to be able to account for the lateral water balance along the rivers. Grid runoff map with 10 km × 10 km resolution and the discharge map along the river with the 1 km basic length unit are the main results in this study. This kind of statistic approach can be widely used be-cause it avoids the complexity of hydrological models and does not depend on the meteoro-logical data.  相似文献   

14.
Studying the response to warming of hydrological systems in China’s temperate glacier region is essential in order to provide information required for sustainable development.The results indicated the warming climate has had an impact on the hydrological cycle.As the glacier area subject to melting has increased and the ablation season has become longer,the contribution of meltwater to annual river discharge has increased.The earlier onset of ablation at higher elevation glaciers has resulted in the period of minimum discharge occurring earlier in the year.Seasonal runoff variations are dominated by snow and glacier melt,and an increase of meltwater has resulted in changes of the annual water cycle in the Lijiang Basin and Hailuogou Basin.The increase amplitude of runoff in the downstream region of the glacial area is much stronger than that of precipitation,resulting from the prominent increase of meltwater from glacier region in two basins.Continued observations in the glacierized basins should be undertaken in order to monitor changes,to reveal the relationships between climate,glaciers,hydrology and water supplies,and to assist in maintaining sustainable regional development.  相似文献   

15.
Hydrology of the high glacierized region in the Tianshan Mountains is an important water resource for arid and semiarid areas of China, even Central Asia. The hydrological process is complex to understand, due to the high variability in climate and the lack of hydrometeorological data. Based on field observations, the present study analyzes the meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the Koxkar Glacier River Basin during 2008-2011; and the factors influencing climate impact on glacier hydrology are discussed. The results show that precipitation at the terminus of the glacier was 426.2 mm, 471.8 mm, 624.9 mm, and 532 mm in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011, respectively. Discharge increases starting in May,reaches its highest value in July and August, and then starts to decrease. The mean annual discharge was 118.23×106 m~3 during the four years observed, with 87.0% occurring in the ablation season(May-September). During the study period,the runoff in August accounted for 29% of total streamflow, followed by July(22%) and June(14%). The runoff exhibited obviously high interannual variability from April to September, induced by drastic changes in climate factors. Discharge autocorrelations are very high for all the years. The climate factors show different influences on discharge. The highest correlation R between daily temperature and discharge was for a time lag of 2-3 days on the Koxkar Glacier(0.66-0.76).The daily depth of runoff to daily temperature and daily water vapor pressure had an R~2 value of 0.56 and 0.69, respectively, which could be described by an exponential function. A closer relationship is found between runoff and either temperature or water vapor pressure on a monthly scale; the R~2 values are 0.65 and 0.78, respectively. The study helps us to understand the mechanisms of the hydrological-meteorological system of typical regional glaciers and to provide a reference for glacier-runoff simulations and water-resource management.  相似文献   

16.
Based on automatic continuous surface ozone concentration observation data from June 10, 2010 to March 20, 2012 in the Taklimakan Desert hinterland, combined with corresponding meteorological data, the temporal, seasonal and daily variation characteristics of surface ozone concentrations under different weather conditions were analyzed. At the same time, the main fac- tors affecting ozone variation are discussed. Results show that： （1） Daily variation of ozone concentration was characterized by one obvious peak, with gentle changes during the night and dramatic changes during the day. The lowest concentration was at 09：00 and the highest was at 18：00. Compared to urban areas, there was a slight time delay. （2） Ozone concentration variation had a weekend effect phenomenon. Weekly variation of ozone concentration decreased from Monday to Wednesday with the lowest in Wednesday, and increased after Thursday with the highest in Sunday. （3） The highest monthly average concentration was 89.6 I.tg/m3 in June 2010, and the lowest was 32.0 ~g/m3 in January 2012. Ozone concentration reduced month by month from June to December in 2010. （4） Ozone concentration in spring and summer was higher than in autumn and winter. The variation trend agreed with those in other large and medium-sized cities. （5） Under four different types of weather, daily ozone concentration var- ied most dramatically in sunny days, followed by slight variation in rain days, and varied gently in cloudy days. Ozone concentra- tion varied inconspicuously before a sandstorm appearance, and dropped rapidly at the onset of a sandstorm. （6） Daily variation of radiation was also characterized by a single peak, and the variation was significantly earlier than ozone concentration variation. Sun radiation intensity had a direct influence on the photochemical reaction speed, leading to variation of ozone concentration. （7） Daily average ozone concentration in dust weather was higher than in slight rain and clear days. The variation of near surface ozone concentration could also be affected by meteorological factors such as relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction and sunshine hours. Thus, numerous factors working together led to ozone pollution.  相似文献   

17.
长江大通-河口段枯季的径流量变化   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Based on hydrometric data and extensive investigations on water-extracting projects, this paper presents a preliminary study on water discharge changes between Datong and Xuliujing during dry season. The natural hydrological processes and human factors that influence the water discharge are analyzed with the help of GIS method. The investigations indicate that the water-extracting projects downstream from Datong to Xuliujing had amounted to 64 in number by the end of 2000,with a water-extracting capacity up to 4,626 m3/s averaged in a tidal cycle. The water extraction from the Changjiang River has become the most important factor influencing the water discharge downstream Datong during dry season. The potential magnitude in water discharge changes are estimated based on historical records of water extraction and a water balance model. The computational results were calibrated with the actual data. The future trend in changes of water discharge into the sea during dry season was discussed by taking into consideration of newly built hydro-engineering projects. The water extraction downstream Datong in dry season before 2000 had a great influence on discharges into the sea in the extremely dry year like 1978-1979. It produced a net decrease of more than 490 m^3/s in monthly mean discharges from the Changjiang into the sea. It is expected that the water extraction will continually increase in the coming decades, especially in dry years, when the net decrease in monthly mean water discharge will increase to more than 1000 m^3/s and will give a far-reaching effect on the changes of water discharge from the Changjiang into the sea.  相似文献   

18.
中国东部植被NDVI对气温和降水的时空响应(英文)   总被引：8，自引：4，他引：4  
Temporal and spatial response characteristics of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature and precipitation in the whole year,spring,summer and autumn was analyzed from April 1998 to March 2008 based on the SPOT VGT-NDVI data and daily temperature and precipitation data from 205 meteorological stations in eastern China.The results indicate that as a whole,the response of vegetation NDVI to the variation of temperature is more pronounced than that of precipitation in eastern China.Vegetation NDVI maxi...  相似文献   

19.
Liu  Muxing  Wang  Qiuyue  Guo  Li  Yi  Jun  Lin  Henry  Zhu  Qing  Fan  Bihang  Zhang  Hailin 《地理学报(英文版)》2020,30(6):949-968
Rainfall provides essential water resource for vegetation growth and acts as driving force for hydrologic process, bedrock weathering and nutrient cycle in the steep hilly catchment. But the effects of rainfall features, vegetation types, topography, and also their interactions on soil water movement and soil moisture dynamics are inadequately quantified. During the coupled wet and dry periods of the year 2018 to 2019, time-series soil moisture was monitored with 5-min interval resolution in a hilly catchment of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China. Three hillslopes covered with evergreen forest(EG), secondary deciduous forest mixed with shrubs(SDFS) and deforested pasture(DP) were selected, and two monitoring sites with five detected depths were established at upslope and downslope position, respectively. Several parameters expressing soil moisture response to rainfall event were evaluated, including wetting depth, cumulative rainfall amount and lag time before initial response, maximum increase of soil water storage, and transform ratio of rainwater to soil water. The results indicated that rainfall amount is the dominant rainfall variable controlling soil moisture response to rainfall event. No soil moisture response occurred when rainfall amounts was 8 mm, and all the deepest monitoring sensors detected soil moisture increase when total rainfall amounts was 30 mm. In the wet period, the cumulative rainfall amount to trigger surface soil moisture response in EG-up site was significantly higher than in other five sites. However, no significant difference in cumulative rainfall amount to trigger soil moisture response was observed among all study sites in dry period. Vegetation canopy interception reduced the transform ratio of rainwater to soil water, with a higher reduction in vegetation growth period than in other period. Also, interception of vegetation canopy resulted in a largeraccumulated rainfall amount and a longer lag time for initiating soil moisture response to rainfall. Generally, average cumulative rainfall amount for initiating soil moisture response during dry period of all sites(3.5–5.6 mm) were less than during wet period(5.7–19.7 mm). Forests captured more infiltration water compared with deforested pasture, showing the larger increments of both soil water storage for the whole soil profile and volumetric soil water content at 10 cm depth on two forest slopes. Topography dominated soil subsurface flow, proven by the evidences that less rainfall amount and less time was needed to trigger soil moisture response and also larger accumulated soil water storage increment in downslope site than in corresponding upslope site during heavy rainfall events.  相似文献   

20.
南京地区近40年来太阳辐射变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The data utilized in this analysis consisted of extraterrestrial radiation,global radiation,diffuse radiation,total cloud cover and relative sunshine.The annual variations and trend were analyzed for monthly mean daily total global,direct,and diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface and for the relations between global,direct,diffuse radiation and relative sunshine,total cloud cover.The climatlolgical calculation equations of global and direct radiation are put forward.The results show that global and direct radiations are characterized by decrease and diffuse radiation by increase.The main causes are due to the increase of concentration of suspended particles and atmospheric turbidities rather than cloud cover variations.  相似文献   

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