A 500 yr speleothem-derived reconstruction of late autumn–winter precipitation, northeast Turkey     

Catherine N. Jex  Andy Baker  Jonathan M. Eden  Warren J. Eastwood  Ian J. Fairchild  Melanie J. Leng  Louise Thomas  Hilary J. Sloane 《Quaternary Research》2011,75(3):399-405

A verified instrumental calibration of annually resolved δ¹⁸O for a stalagmite from Gümü?hane in northeast Turkey is presented and cross-validated using a ‘leave-one-out’ technique. The amount of late autumn to winter precipitation is negatively correlated with stalagmite δ¹⁸O between AD 1938 and 2004. The observed relationship is extrapolated back to ~ AD 1500 leading to the first long winter precipitation reconstruction for this region. Modern day October to January precipitation is linked to pressure fields in Western Russia. Anomalously lower reconstructed rainfall is recorded in AD 1540–1560 at which time higher pressure over the Caspian Sea region is inferred.  相似文献   

Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: Review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stelios Katsanevakis  Vanessa Stelzenmüller  Andy South  Thomas Kirk Sørensen  Peter J.S. Jones  Sandy Kerr  Fabio Badalamenti  Christos Anagnostou  Patricia Breen  Guillem Chust  Giovanni D’Anna  Mike Duijn  Tatiana Filatova  Fabio Fiorentino  Helena Hulsman  Kate Johnson  Aristomenis P. Karageorgis  Ingrid Kröncke  Simone Mirto  Carlo Pipitone  Susan Portelli  Wanfei Qiu  Henning Reiss  Dimitris Sakellariou  Maria Salomidi  Luc van Hoof  Vassiliki Vassilopoulou  Tomás Vega Fernández  Sandra Vöge  Anke Weber  Argyro Zenetos  Remment ter Hofstede 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2011,54(11):807-820

Conventional sectoral management and piecemeal governance are considered less and less appropriate in pursuit of sustainable development. Ecosystem based marine spatial management (EB-MSM) is an approach that recognizes the full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including human uses, rather than considering single issues, species, or ecosystem services in isolation. Marine spatial planning and ocean zoning are emerging concepts that can support EB-MSM. EB-MSM is driven by high-level goals that managers aim to achieve through the implementation of measures. High-level goals and objectives need to be translated into more operational objectives before specific targets, limits and measures can be elaborated.Monitoring, evaluation and adaptation are necessary to ensure that marine management measures are both effective and efficient. Solid monitoring frameworks are the foundation of adaptive management, as they provide the necessary information to evaluate performance and the effectiveness of management actions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) - possibly set up in networks - constitute a key component in EB-MSM policies and practises and have been applied as a cornerstone in conservation of marine biodiversity, management of fish populations, development of coastal tourism, etc. Moreover, MPA experiences have provided methods and concepts (such as zoning) to a wider EB-MSM context. The assignment of values to biophysical features of the marine environment allows the direct assessment of related management choices and may assist EB-MSM.A range of monetary valuation techniques have been proposed to reduce attributes of goods and services to a single metric. However, in the marine environment such an approach is often over simplistic, and thus less reductive techniques may be necessary. Rather than producing a single metric, the results of non-monetary assessments guide policy allowing weight to be given as necessary to potential areas of conflict and consensus.Strategies to take into account climate change effects and geohazard risks in EB-MSM have been applied or proposed worldwide. EB-MSM regimes must be alert to such risks and flexible to account for changes.  相似文献   

The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies     

Henning Tarp Jensen  Marcus R. Keogh-Brown  Richard D. Smith  Zaid Chalabi  Alan D. Dangour  Mike Davies  Phil Edwards  Tara Garnett  Moshe Givoni  Ulla Griffiths  Ian Hamilton  James Jarrett  Ian Roberts  Paul Wilkinson  James Woodcock  Andy Haines 《Climatic change》2013,119(2):223-237

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on global agriculture   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alvaro Calzadilla  Katrin Rehdanz  Richard Betts  Pete Falloon  Andy Wiltshire  Richard S. J. Tol 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):357-374

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.  相似文献   

Spectrophotometric discrimination of river dissolved organic matter     

Andy Baker 《水文研究》2002,16(16):3203-3213

There is a need to be able to differentiate the dissolved organic matter (DOM) fraction in river waters. Research in the 1970s and 1980s has attempted to utilize both absorbance and fluorescence to distinguish between DOM fractions in river waters, but both were limited by the available technology. Total organic carbon content has, therefore, been widely used as a standard method of measuring DOM concentration, although it has little power to differentiate DOM fractions. Recent advances in fluorescence spectrophotometry enable rapid and optically precise analysis of DOM. Here, we show how a combination of both fluorescence and absorbance can be used to discriminate statistically between spatial variations of DOM in tributaries in a small catchment of the Ouseburn, NE England. The results of the discriminant analysis suggest that about 70% of the samples can be correctly classified to its tributary. Discriminant function 1 explains 60·8% of the variance in the data and the fulvic‐like fluorescence intensity has the largest absolute correlation within this function; discriminant function 2 explains a further 21·5% of the variance and the fulvic‐like fluorescence emission wavelength has the largest absolute correlation within this function. The discriminant analysis does not correctly classify all tributaries every time, and successfully discriminates between the different tributaries 70% of the time. Occasions when the tributary waters are less well discriminated are due to either episodic pollution events (at two sites) or due to tributaries that have strong seasonal trends in spectrophotometric parameters, which allows the sites to be misclassified. Results suggest that spectrophotometric techniques have considerable potential in the discrimination of DOM in rivers. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling the Transport and Export of Sediments in Macrotidal Estuaries with Eroding Salt Marsh     

Xiaorong Li  Andy Plater  Nicoletta Leonardi 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(6):1551-1564

A process-based numerical model is applied to investigate sediment transport dynamics and sediment budget in tide-dominated estuaries under different salt marsh erosion scenarios. Using a typical funnel-shaped estuary (Ribble Estuary, UK) as a study site, it is found that the remobilization of sediments within the estuary is increased as a result of the tidal inundation of the eroded salt marsh. The landward export of the finest sediment is also intensified. The relationship between salt marsh erosion and net landward export of sediments has been found to be non-linear—with the first 30% salt marsh erosion causing most of the predicted export. The presence of vegetation also influences the sediment budget. Results suggest that vegetation reduces the amount of sediment being transported upstream. Again, the trapping effect of salt marsh in terms of plant density is non-linear. Whilst a vegetated surface with a stem density of 64 plants/m² decreased the net landward export of very fine sand by around 50%, a further increase in stem density from 64 to 512 plants/m² had a relatively small effect.  相似文献   

The effects of ditch dams on water-level dynamics in tropical peatlands     

Santosa Sandy Putra  Joseph Holden  Andy J. Baird 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14174

A significant proportion of tropical peatlands has been drained for agricultural purposes, resulting in severe degradation. Hydrological restoration, which usually involves blocking ditches, is therefore a priority. Nevertheless, the influence of ditch blocking on tropical peatland hydrological functioning is still poorly understood. We studied water-level dynamics using a combination of automated and manual dipwells, and also meteorological data during dry and wet seasons over 6 months at three locations in Sebangau National Park, Kalimantan, Indonesia. The locations were a forested peatland (Forested), a drained peatland with ditch dams (Blocked), and a drained peatland without ditch dams (Drained). In the dry season, water tables at all sites were deeper than the Indonesian regulatory requirement of 40 cm from the peat surface. In the dry season, the ditches were dry and water did not flow to them. The dry season water-table drawdown rates — solely due to evapotranspiration — were 9.3 mm day⁻¹ at Forested, 9.6 mm day⁻¹ at Blocked, but 12.7 mm day⁻¹ at Drained. In the wet season, the proportion of time during which water tables in the wells were deeper than the 40 cm limit ranged between 16% and 87% at Forested, 0% at Blocked, and between 0% and 38% at Drained. In the wet season, water flowed from the peatland to ditches at Blocked and Drained. The interquartile range of hydraulic gradients between the lowest ditch outlet and the farthest well from ditches at Blocked was 3.7 × 10⁻⁴ to 7.8 × 10⁻⁴ m m⁻¹, but 1.9 × 10⁻³ to 2.6 × 10⁻³ m m⁻¹ at Drained. Given the results from Forested, a water-table depth limit policy based on field data may be required, to reflect natural seasonal dynamics in tropical peatlands. Revised spatial designs of dams or bunds are also required, to ensure effective water-table management as part of tropical peatland restoration.  相似文献   

Observations and Impacts from the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in California (USA)   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Rick I. Wilson  Amanda R. Admire  Jose C. Borrero  Lori A. Dengler  Mark R. Legg  Patrick Lynett  Timothy P. McCrink  Kevin M. Miller  Andy Ritchie  Kara Sterling  Paul M. Whitmore 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(6-8):1127-1147

The coast of California was significantly impacted by two recent teletsunami events, one originating off the coast of Chile on February 27, 2010 and the other off Japan on March 11, 2011. These tsunamis caused extensive inundation and damage along the coast of their respective source regions. For the 2010 tsunami, the NOAA West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a state-wide Tsunami Advisory based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes ranging from 0.18 to 1.43 m with the highest amplitudes predicted for central and southern California. For the 2011 tsunami, a Tsunami Warning was issued north of Point Conception and a Tsunami Advisory south of that location, with forecasted amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 m, the highest expected for Crescent City. Because both teletsunamis arrived during low tide, the potential for significant inundation of dry land was greatly reduced during both events. However, both events created rapid water-level fluctuations and strong currents within harbors and along beaches, causing extensive damage in a number of harbors and challenging emergency managers in coastal jurisdictions. Field personnel were deployed prior to each tsunami to observe and measure physical effects at the coast. Post-event survey teams and questionnaires were used to gather information from both a physical effects and emergency response perspective. During the 2010 tsunami, a maximum tsunami amplitude of 1.2 m was observed at Pismo Beach, and over $3-million worth of damage to boats and docks occurred in nearly a dozen harbors, most significantly in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Mission Bay, and northern Shelter Island in San Diego Bay. During the 2011 tsunami, the maximum amplitude was measured at 2.47 m in Crescent City Harbor with over $50-million in damage to two dozen harbors. Those most significantly affected were Crescent City, Noyo River, Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and southern Shelter Island. During both events, people on docks and near the ocean became at risk to injury with one fatality occurring during the 2011 tsunami at the mouth of the Klamath River. Evaluations of maximum forecasted tsunami amplitudes indicate that the average percent error was 38 and 28 % for the 2010 and 2011 events, respectively. Due to these recent events, the California tsunami program is developing products that will help: (1) the maritime community better understand tsunami hazards within their harbors, as well as if and where boats should go offshore to be safe, and (2) emergency managers develop evacuation plans for relatively small “Warning” level events where extensive evacuation is not required. Because tsunami-induced currents were responsible for most of the damage in these two events, modeled current velocity estimates should be incorporated into future forecast products from the warning centers.  相似文献   

Geodetic data shed light on ongoing caldera subsidence at Askja, Iceland     

Elske de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen  Hazel Rymer  Erik Sturkell  Rikke Pedersen  Andy Hooper  Freysteinn Sigmundsson  Benedikt Ófeigsson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2013,75(5):1-13

Subsidence within the main caldera of Askja volcano in the North of Iceland has been in progress since 1983. Here, we present new ground- and satellite-based deformation data, which we interpret together with new and existing micro-gravity data, to help understand which processes may be responsible for the unrest. From 2003 to 2007, we observe a net micro-gravity decrease combined with subsidence and from 2007 to 2009 we observe a net micro-gravity increase while the subsidence continues. We infer subsidence is caused by a combination of a cooling and contracting magma chamber at a divergent plate boundary. Mass movements at active volcanoes can be caused by several processes, including water table/lake level movements, hydrothermal activity and magma movements. We suggest that, here, magma movement and/or a steam cap in the geothermal system of Askja at depth are responsible for the observed micro-gravity variations. In this respect, we rule out the possibility of a shallow intrusion as an explanation for the observed micro-gravity increase but suggest magma may have flowed into the residing shallow magma chamber at Askja despite continued subsidence. In particular, variable compressibility of magma residing in the magma chamber as well as compressibility of the surrounding rock may be the reason why this additional magma did not create any detectable surface deformation.  相似文献   

Investigation of failures in Irish raised bogs     

Michael Long  Andy Trafford  Shane Donohue 《Landslides》2014,11(4):733-743

This paper presents the results of field geophysical testing and laboratory testing of peat from Carn Park and Roosky raised bogs in the Irish Midlands. The motivation for the work was highlight the importance of these areas and to begin to attempt to understand the reasons for the failure of the bogs despite them having surface slopes of some 1°. It was found that the peat is typical of that of Irish raised bogs being up to 8 m thick towards the “high” dome of the bogs. The peat is characterised by low density, high water content, high organic content, low undrained shear strength and high compressibility. The peat is also relatively permeable at in situ stress. Geophysical electrical resistivity tomography and ground penetrating radar data shows a clear thinning of the peat in the area of the failures corresponding to a reduction in volume from dewatering by edge drains/peat harvesting. This finding is supported by detailed water content measurements. It was also shown that the peat base topography is relatively flat and indicates that the observed surface movement has come from within the peat rather than from the material below the peat. Potential causes of the failures include conventional slope instability, the effect of seepage forces or the release of built-up gas in the peat mass. Further measurements are required in order to study these in more detail.  相似文献