Revisiting prior distributions,Part II: Implications of the physical prior in maximum entropy analysis     

Rafi Baker  George Christakos 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(4):435-446

The well-known “Maximum Entropy Formalism” offers a powerful framework for deriving probability density functions given a relevant knowledge base and an adequate prior. The majority of results based on this approach have been derived assuming a flat uninformative prior, but this assumption is to a large extent arbitrary (any one-to-one transformation of the random variable will change the flat uninformative prior into some non-constant function). In a companion paper we introduced the notion of a natural reference point for dimensional physical variables, and used this notion to derive a class of physical priors that are form-invariant to changes in the system of dimensional units. The present paper studies effects of these priors on the probability density functions derived using the maximum entropy formalism. Analysis of real data shows that when the maximum entropy formalism uses the physical prior it yields significantly better results than when it is based on the commonly used flat uninformative prior. This improvement reflects the significance of the incorporating additional information (contained in physical priors), which is ignored when flat priors are used in the standard form of the maximum entropy formalism. A potentially serious limitation of the maximum entropy formalism is the assumption that sample moments are available. This is not the case in many macroscopic real-world problems, where the knowledge base available is a finite sample rather than population moments. As a result, the maximum entropy formalism generates a family of “nested models” parameterized by the unknown values of the population parameters. In this work we combine this formalism with a model selection scheme based on Akaike’s information criterion to derive the maximum entropy model that is most consistent with the available sample. This combination establishes a general inference framework of wide applicability in scientific/engineering problems.  相似文献   

Magnetic-field accumulation in supergranules     

Alfred Clark Jr.  H. Kevin Johnson 《Solar physics》1967,2(4):433-440

Some theoretical models illustrating the growth of magnetic fields around the boundaries of supergranulation cells are given. The evolution of a magnetic field in a prescribed velocity field is calculated for the idealized case of hexagonal cells. The calculations are carried out both for a perfect conductor and a fluid of finite conductivity. The theory is developed in such a way as to be virtually free of specific assumptions about the depth dependence of the supergranulation flow. The results demonstrate the tendency of the field to accumulate at those boundary points where the flow is most strongly converging.  相似文献   

THE APPLICATION OF A MICROCOMPUTER IN THE ANALYSIS OF PUMPING TEST DATA IN CONFINED AQUIFERS     

Peter Dumble  Kevin T. Cullen 《Ground water》1983,21(1):79-83

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Cenozoic volcanism in Southwestern New Mexico.: W.E. Elston and S.A. Northrop (Editors). New Mexico Geological Society Special Publication No. 5, 1976, 151 pp., US $ 13.50. Available from the New Mexico Geological Society,New Mexico Bureau of Mines and Mineral Resources,Campus Station,Socorro, N.M. 87801, U.S.A.     

Brian H. Baker 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1976,1(4):387-388

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Not so rare Earth? New developments in understanding the origin of the Earth and Moon     

Kevin Righter 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2007,67(3):179-200

A widely accepted model for the origin of the Earth and Moon has been a somewhat specific giant impact scenario involving an impactor to proto-Earth mass ratio of 3:7, occurring 50-60 Ma after T₀, when the Earth was only half-accreted, with the majority of Earth's water then accreted after the main stage of growth, perhaps from comets. There have been many changes to this specific scenario, due to advances in isotopic and trace element geochemistry, more detailed, improved, and realistic giant impact and terrestrial planet accretion modeling, and consideration of terrestrial water sources other than high D/H comets. The current scenario is that the Earth accreted faster and differentiated quickly, the Moon-forming impact could have been mid- to late in the accretion process, and water may have been present during accretion. These new developments have broadened the range of conditions required to make an Earth-Moon system, and suggests there may be many new fruitful avenues of research. There are also some classic and unresolved problems such as the significance of the identical O isotopic composition of the Earth and Moon, the depletion of volatiles on the lunar mantle relative to Earth's, the relative contribution of the impactor and proto-Earth to the Moon's mass, and the timing of Earth's possible atmospheric loss relative to the giant impact.  相似文献   

Measurement of Ambient,Interstitial, and Residual Aerosol Particles on a Mountaintop Site in Central Sweden using an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer and a CVI     

Frank Drewnick  Johannes Schneider  Silke S. Hings  Nele Hock  Kevin Noone  Admir Targino  Silke Weimer  Stephan Borrmann 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,56(1):1-20

The Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer (Q-AMS) was coupled with a counterflow virtual impactor (CVI) for the first time to measure cloud droplet residuals of warm tropospheric clouds on Mt. Åreskutan in central Sweden in July 2003. Operating the CVI in different operational modes generated mass concentration and species-resolved mass distribution data for non-refractory species of the ambient, interstitial, and residual aerosol. The ambient aerosol measurements revealed that the aerosol at the site was mainly influenced by long-range transport and regional photochemical generation of nitrate and organic aerosol components. Four different major air masses were identified for the time interval of the experiment. While two air masses that approached the site from northeastern Europe via Finland showed very similar aerosol composition, the other two air masses from polar regions and the British Islands had a significantly different composition. During cloud events the larger aerosol particles were found to be activated into cloud droplets. On a mass basis the activation cut-off diameter was approximately 150 nm for nitrate and organics dominated particles and 200 nm for sulfate dominated particles. Generally nitrate and organics were found to be activated into cloud droplets with higher efficiency than sulfate. While a significant fraction of the nitrate in ambient particles was organic nitrates or nitrogen-containing organic species, the nitrate found in the cloud droplet residuals was mainly ammonium nitrate. After passage of clouds the ambient aerosol size distribution had shifted to smaller particle sizes due to the predominantly activation of larger aerosol particles without a significant change in the relative composition of the ambient aerosol.  相似文献   

Optimal dispersion and central places   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kevin M. Curtin  Richard L. Church 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2007,9(2):167-187

This paper presents research into optimal dispersion models as applied to central places. The literature regarding location optimization and central places is reviewed and the motivation for employing dispersion models is identified. Models that employ the objective of maximal dispersion in the context of central places are formulated and solved in the context of both single- and multiple-good systems. Two methods for generating multiple-good systems are presented: a multiple-type dispersion model and a K-value constraint set formulation. Sequential solutions to dispersion models demonstrate how a system of central places could develop over time. The solutions to these models generate the patterns of central places expected under the organizing principles of central place theory. The objective of maximal dispersion is posited as both a motivating factor in central place location decisions, and as the optimal outcome of a mature system of central places.   相似文献   

High Resolution Passive Imaging Using Dense Geophone Arrays     

FanChi Lin  Yadong Wang  Sin Mei Wu  Elizabeth Berg  Kevin War  Amir Allam  Jamie Farrell 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(Z1):280-280

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Groundwater availability in the United States: the value of quantitative regional assessments     

Kevin F. Dennehy  Thomas E. Reilly  William L. Cunningham 《Hydrogeology Journal》2015,23(8):1629-1632

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Exploring controls of the early and stepped deglaciation on the western margin of the British Irish Ice Sheet     

Sara Benetti  Richard C. Chiverrell  Colm Ó Cofaigh  Matt Burke  Alicia Medialdea  David Small  Colin Ballantyne  Mark D. Bateman  S. Louise Callard  Peter Wilson  Derek Fabel  Chris D. Clark  Riccardo Arosio  Sarah Bradley  Paul Dunlop  Jeremy C. Ely  Jenny Gales  Stephen J. Livingstone  Steven G. Moreton  Catriona Purcell  Margot Saher  Kevin Schiele  Katrien Van Landeghem  Kasper Weilbach 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):833-870

New optically stimulated luminescence dating and Bayesian models integrating all legacy and BRITICE-CHRONO geochronology facilitated exploration of the controls on the deglaciation of two former sectors of the British–Irish Ice Sheet, the Donegal Bay (DBIS) and Malin Sea ice-streams (MSIS). Shelf-edge glaciation occurred ~27 ka, before the global Last Glacial Maximum, and shelf-wide retreat began 26–26.5 ka at a rate of ~18.7–20.7 m a^–1. MSIS grounding zone wedges and DBIS recessional moraines show episodic retreat punctuated by prolonged still-stands. By ~23–22 ka the outer shelf (~25 000 km²) was free of grounded ice. After this time, MSIS retreat was faster (~20 m a^–1 vs. ~2–6 m a^–1 of DBIS). Separation of Irish and Scottish ice sources occurred ~20–19.5 ka, leaving an autonomous Donegal ice dome. Inner Malin shelf deglaciation followed the submarine troughs reaching the Hebridean coast ~19 ka. DBIS retreat formed the extensive complex of moraines in outer Donegal Bay at 20.5–19 ka. DBIS retreated on land by ~17–16 ka. Isolated ice caps in Scotland and Ireland persisted until ~14.5 ka. Early retreat of this marine-terminating margin is best explained by local ice loading increasing water depths and promoting calving ice losses rather than by changes in global temperatures. Topographical controls governed the differences between the ice-stream retreat from mid-shelf to the coast.  相似文献