Natural disasters as the end of the insurance industry? Scalar competitive strategies, Alternative Risk Transfers, and the economic crisis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tristan Sturm  Eric Oh 《Geoforum》2010,41(1):154-163

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has piqued interest in the insurance industry, and this scrutiny has led to assumptions that the industry has become unstable and unprofitable with the increased incidence of disasters in highly-insured regions of the world. This paper challenges that assumption by arguing that the insurance industry has responded by spreading risk through scaled and networked recovery schemes. We found that because of competitive strategies of risk-spreading and displacement arrangements, the industry has actually profited as a whole. Regional insurance companies have always relied on the higher financial scales of the reinsurance industry in Munich, Zurich, and London. But with claims reaching into the billions of dollars, the reinsurance industry itself has raised premiums, spread risk farther afield, and jumped scale by spreading risk to futures markets called Alternative Risk Transfers (ARTs). However, the recession beginning in 2008 has called into question the viability of using futures markets as insurance. It is shown through a media analysis of four major business publications (The Economist, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal) how the industry responded to the costs of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 hurricane seasons. Because geography is rather new to this literature, this paper also offers a broad review of the insurance industry.  相似文献   

从埋藏学看法国的翼龙化石记录     

Eric BUFFETAUT 《地球学报》2010,31(Z1):7-9

The French pterosaur record extends from the Late Triassic to the end of the Cretaceous (Mazin et al., 2001 and references therein), with occurrences at various horizons of the Triassic, Jurassic and Creta-ceous, but the completeness and quality of the avail-able fossil material is highly variable.  相似文献   

Establishing constraints on groundwater ages with Cl,C, H,and noble gases: A case study in the eastern Paris basin,France     

Véronique Lavastre  Corinne Le Gal La Salle  Jean-Luc Michelot  Sophie Giannesini  Lucilla Benedetti  Joël Lancelot  Bernard Lavielle  Marc Massault  Bertrand Thomas  Eric Gilabert  Didier Bourlès  Norbert Clauer  Pierre Agrinier 《Applied Geochemistry》2010

Groundwaters from the Tithonian/Kimmeridgian, Oxfordian and Upper Dogger aquifers, within the eastern part of the Paris basin (France), were characterised using ³H, ¹⁴C and ³⁶Cl, and noble gases tracers, to evaluate their residence times and determine their recharge period. This information is an important prerequisite to evaluating the confinement properties of the Callovo-Oxfordian clay formation sandwiched between the Oxfordian aquifer and the Dogger aquifer, currently being investigated by the French nuclear waste management agency (Andra) for radioactive waste disposal. Data presented in this paper are used to test 4 hypotheses.  相似文献   

Erratum to “Establishing constraints on groundwater ages with Cl,C, H,and noble gases: A case study in the eastern Paris basin,France” [Applied Geochemistry 25 (1) (2010) 123–142]     

Véronique Lavastre  Corinne Le Gal La Salle  Jean-Luc Michelot  Sophie Giannesini  Lucilla Benedetti  Joël Lancelot  Bernard Lavielle  Marc Massault  Bertrand Thomas  Eric Gilabert  Didier Bourlès  Norbert Clauer  Pierre Agrinier 《Applied Geochemistry》2010

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An experimental study of lake water-sediment interaction rates     

Cherif Gherbi  Lakhdar Bouabsa  Eric H. Oelkers 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(2):126-135

Dissolution rates of sediments obtained from the Oued Cherf reservoir were measured in closed-system batch reactors at 25 °C in fluids sampled concurrently from the same locations as the sediments. The BET surface areas of the sediments ranged from 16 to 45 m²/g and consisted primarily of quartz, calcite, and clay minerals. After a brief initial period, release rates of Si, Mg, Ca, Cl, SO₄, and NO₃ from these sediments are approximately linear with time over the course of the experiments, which lasted from 3 to 5 months. BET surface area normalized Si release rates ranged from 10^–17.4 to 10^–18.4 mol/cm²/s. These release rates match closely Si release rates from quartz and clay minerals determined from laboratory dissolution rates reported in the literature. This coherence suggests that laboratory measured silicate dissolution rates can be used with confidence to predict the dissolution behavior of sediments in natural surface waters.  相似文献   

Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel     

Eric F. Lambin  Sarah Ann Lise D’haen  Ole Mertz  Jonas Østergaard Nielsen  Kjeld Rasmussen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2014,114(1):76-83

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.  相似文献   

A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale     

Marc Pons  Peter A Johnson  Martí Rosas  Eric Jover 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(12):2474-2494

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations between various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution among ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agent-based model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C, respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.  相似文献   

Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Linyin Cheng  Amir AghaKouchak  Eric Gilleland  Richard W Katz 《Climatic change》2014,127(2):353-369

This paper introduces a framework for estimating stationary and non-stationary return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes using Bayesian inference. This framework is implemented in the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software package, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis of extremes in the geosciences. In a Bayesian approach, NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters with a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) approach for global optimization over the parameter space. NEVA includes posterior probability intervals (uncertainty bounds) of estimated return levels through Bayesian inference, with its inherent advantages in uncertainty quantification. The software presents the results of non-stationary extreme value analysis using various exceedance probability methods. We evaluate both stationary and non-stationary components of the package for a case study consisting of annual temperature maxima for a gridded global temperature dataset. The results show that NEVA can reliably describe extremes and their return levels.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal variability of sea level and circulation in the Gulf of Thailand: the role of the Madden–Julian Oscillation     

Eric C. J. Oliver 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):401-416

Intraseasonal variability of the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean is strongly related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Shallow seas in this region, such as the Gulf of Thailand, act as amplifiers of the direct ocean response to surface wind forcing by efficient setup of sea level. Intraseasonal ocean variability in the Gulf of Thailand region is examined using statistical analysis of local tide gauge observations and surface winds. The tide gauges detect variability on intraseasonal time scales that is related to the MJO through its effect on local wind. The relationship between the MJO and the surface wind is strongly seasonal, being most vigorous during the monsoon, and direction-dependent. The observations are then supplemented with simulations of sea level and circulation from a fully nonlinear barotropic numerical ocean model (Princeton Ocean Model). The numerical model reproduces well the intraseasonal sea level variability in the Gulf of Thailand and its seasonal modulations. The model is then used to map the wind-driven response of sea level and circulation in the entire Gulf of Thailand. Finally, the predictability of the setup and setdown signal is discussed by relating it to the, potentially predictable, MJO index.  相似文献   

Coupled climate impacts of the Drake Passage and the Panama Seaway     

Simon Yang  Eric Galbraith  Jaime Palter 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):37-52

Tectonically-active gateways between ocean basins have modified ocean circulation over Earth history. Today, the Atlantic and Pacific are directly connected via the Drake Passage, which forms a barrier to the time-mean geostrophic transport between the subtropics and Antarctica. In contrast, during the warm early Cenozoic era, when Antarctica was ice-free, the Drake Passage was closed. Instead, at that time, the separation of North and South America provided a tropical seaway between the Atlantic and Pacific that remained open until the Isthmus of Panama formed in the relatively recent geological past. Ocean circulation models have previously been used to explore the individual impacts of the Drake Passage and the Panama Seaway, but rarely have the two gateways been considered together, and most explorations have used very simple atmospheric models. Here we use a coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere model (GFDL’s CM2Mc), to simulate the impacts of a closed Drake Passage both with and without a Panama Seaway. We find that the climate response to a closed Drake Passage is relatively small when the Panama Seaway is absent, similar to prior studies, although the coupling to a dynamical atmosphere does increase the temperature change. However, with a Panama Seaway, closing Drake Passage has a much larger effect, due to the cessation of deep water formation in the northern hemisphere. Both gateways alter the transport of salt by ocean circulation, with the Panama Seaway allowing fresh Pacific water to be imported to the North Atlantic, and the Drake Passage preventing the flow of saline subtropical water to the circum-Antarctic, a flow that is particularly strong when the Panama Seaway is open. Thus, with a Panama Seaway and a closed Drake Passage, the Southern Ocean tends to be relatively salty, while the North Atlantic tends to be relatively fresh, such that the deep ocean is ventilated from the circum-Antarctic. Ensuing changes in the ocean heat transport drive a bi-polar shift of surface ocean temperatures, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrates toward the warmer southern hemisphere. The response of clouds to changes in surface ocean temperatures amplifies the climate response, resulting in temperature changes of up to 9 °C over Antarctica, even in the absence of land-ice feedbacks. These results emphasize the importance of tectonic gateways to the climate history of the Cenozoic, and support a role for ocean circulation changes in the glaciation of Antarctica.  相似文献