Improved confidence in regional climate model simulations of precipitation evaluated using drought statistics from the ENSEMBLES models     

Cathrine Fox Maule  Peter Thejll  Jens H. Christensen  Synne H. Svendsen  Jamie Hannaford 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):155-173

An ensemble of regional climate model simulations from the European framework project ENSEMBLES is compared with observations of low precipitation events across a number of European regions. We characterize precipitation deficits in terms of two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Models that robustly describe the observations for the period 1961–2000 in given regions are identified and an assessment of the overall performance of the ensemble is provided. The results show that in general, models capture the most severe drought events and that the ensemble mean model also performs well. Some regions that appear to be more problematic to simulate well are also identified. These are relatively small regions and have rather complex topographical features. The analysis suggests that assessment of future drought occurrence based on climate change experiments in general would appear to be robust. But due to the heterogeneous and often fine-scaled structure of drought occurrence, quantitative results should be used with great care, particularly in regions with complex terrain and limited information about past drought occurrence.  相似文献   

Hydro-climatic effects of future land-cover/land-use change in montane mainland southeast Asia     

Omer L. Sen  Deniz Bozkurt  John B. Vogler  Jefferson Fox  Thomas W. Giambelluca  Alan D. Ziegler 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):213-226

Regional climate model simulations with RegCM3 were performed to investigate how future land-cover/land-use (LCLU) change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia (MMSEA) could affect regional climate. Simulation land-surface parameterizations included present day and plausible 2050 land-covers, as well as two extreme deforestation simulations. In the simulations, the original land cover map of RegCM3, based on AVHRR 1992–93 observations, was replaced with one obtained from MODIS 2001 observations; and the model was set to work at two different spatial resolutions using the sub-grid feature of the land surface model: 27.79 km for the atmosphere and 9.26 km for the land surface. During validation, modeled precipitation closely matched observed precipitation over southern China, but underestimated precipitation in the Indochina Peninsula. The plausible 2050 LCLU simulation predicted little change in regional climate. However, an extreme irrigated crop parameterization caused precipitation to increase slightly in the Indochina Peninsula, decrease substantially in southeastern China, and increase significantly in the South China Sea. The extreme short-grass parameterization caused substantial precipitation decreases in MMSEA, but few changes elsewhere. These simulations indicate in order for significant climatological changes to occur, substantially more LCLU conversion is required than the 16 % change we incorporated into the plausible 2050 land-cover scenario.  相似文献   

Foreword     

Kenneth Fox Ph.D. 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,241(1):1-2

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Sixth international conference on laboratory research for planetary atmospheres     

Kenneth Fox 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,236(1):3-10

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Eastward moult migration of non-breeding pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in Svalbard     

Christian M. Glahder  Anthony D. Fox  Mark O'Connell  Martin Jespersen  & Jesper Madsen 《Polar research》2007,26(1):31-36

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Hyporheic and total transient storage in small,sand‐bed streams     

John M. Stofleth  F. Douglas Shields Jr  Garey A. Fox 《水文研究》2008,22(12):1885-1894

Key processes in stream ecosystems are linked to hydraulic retention, which is the departure of stream flow from ideal ‘plug flow’, and reflects fluid movement through surface and hyporheic storage zones. Most existing information about hyporheic exchange is based on flume studies or field measurements in relatively steep streams with beds coarser than sand. Stream tracer studies may be used to quantify overall hydraulic retention, but disaggregation of surface and hyporheic retention remains difficult. A stream tracer approach was used to compute the rates at which stream water is exchanged with water in storage zones (total storage) in short reaches of two small, sand‐bed streams under free and obstructed flow conditions. Tracer curves were fit to the one‐dimensional transport with inflow storage model OTIS‐P. Networks of piezometers were used to measure specific discharge between the stream and the groundwater. In the sand‐bed streams studied, parameters describing total retention were in the upper 50% of data compiled from the literature, most of which represented streams with beds coarser than sand. However, hyporheic storage was an insignificant component of total hydraulic retention, representing only 0·01–0·49% of total exchange, and this fraction did not increase after installation of flow obstructions. Total retention did not vary systematically with bed material size, but increased 50–100% following flow obstruction. Removal of roughness elements, such as large wood and debris dams, is detrimental to processes dependent upon transient storage in small, sand‐bed streams. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical analysis of 1‐D compression wave propagation in saturated poroelastic media     

Tong Qiu  Patrick J. Fox 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2008,32(2):161-187

A numerical procedure is presented for the simulation of 1‐D compression wave propagation in saturated poroelastic media. The media are modelled as a two‐phase system consisting of compressible fluid and solids. Viscous coupling forces resulting from the relative motion between phases are characterized as Darcy type. The numerical procedure can account for effects of axial strain, nonlinear material behaviour, and various drained and undrained boundary conditions. Time integration is carried out explicitly and isothermal conditions are assumed. The method is capable of modelling shock wave fronts without introducing artificial viscosity. Numerical results are in close agreement with analytical solutions for several simplified cases and indicate that mass coupling may have important effects on fluid velocity and wave speed. Corresponding effects on solid velocity and wave speed are much smaller. Numerical results also indicate that damping occurs in a saturated poroelastic column and is dependent on the value of hydraulic conductivity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The production of nitrogen atoms on Mars and their escape     

J.L. Fox  A. Dalgarno 《Planetary and Space Science》1980,28(1):41-46

Quantitative calculations of the escape rate of nitrogen by photodissociation and photoionization, by photoelectron impact processes, by chemical reactions and by dissociative recombination are reported. It is shown that the predicted present escape rate of 2.0 × 10⁵ atoms cm^?2 S^?1 is consistent with the measured ¹⁵N/¹⁴N isotope ratio. A minimum of 4.0 × 10²² cm^?2 S^?1 is obtained for the initial reservoir of N₂. The production rates of N(⁴S) and N(²D) atoms in the atmosphere are obtained and the altitude profile of N(²D) is calculated.  相似文献   

Evolution of an englacial volcanic ridge: Pillow Ridge tindar, Mount Edziza volcanic complex, NCVP, British Columbia, Canada   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Benjamin R. Edwards  Ian P. Skilling  Barry Cameron  Courtney Haynes  Alex Lloyd  Jefferson H.D. Hungerford 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009,185(4):251

Glaciovolcanic deposits are critical for documenting the presence and thickness of terrestrial ice-sheets, and for testing hypotheses about inferred terrestrial ice volumes based on the marine record. Deposits formed by the coincidence of volcanism and ice at the Mount Edziza volcanic complex (MEVC) in northern British Columbia, Canada, preserve an important record for documenting local and possibly regional ice dynamics. Pillow Ridge, located at the northwestern end of the MEVC, formed by ice-confined, fissure-fed eruptions. It comprises predominantly pillow lavas and volcanic breccias of alkaline basalt composition, with subordinate finer-grained volcaniclastic deposits and dykes. The ridge is presently  4 km long,  1000 m in maximum width, and  600 m high. Fifteen syn- and post-eruptive lithofacies are recognized in excellent exposures along the glacially dissected western side of the ridge. We recognize five lithofacies associations: (1) poorly sorted tuff breccia and dykes, (2) proximal pillow lava, dykes and tuff breccia, (3) distal pillow lava, poorly sorted conglomerate and well-sorted volcanic sandstone, (4) interbedded tuff, lapilli tuff, and tuff breccia units, and (5) heterolithic volcanogenic conglomerate and sandstone. Given the abundance of pillow lavas and the lack of surrounding topographic barriers capable of impounding water, we agree with Souther [Souther, J.G., 1992. The late Cenozoic Mount Edziza volcanic complex. Geol. Soc. Can. Mem., vol. 420. 320 pp] that the bulk of the edifice formed while confined by ice, but have found evidence for a more complex and variable eruption history than that which he proposed. Preliminary estimates of water-ice depths derived from FTIR analyses of H₂O give ranges of 300 to 680 m assuming 0 ppm CO₂, and 857 to 1297 m assuming 25 ppm CO₂. Variations in depth estimates among samples may indicate that water/ice depths changed during the evolution of the ridge, which is consistent with our interpretations for the origins of different lithofacies associations. Given that the age of the units are likely to be ca. 0.9 Ma [Souther, J.G., 1992. The late Cenozoic Mount Edziza volcanic complex. Geol. Soc. Can. Mem., vol. 420. 320 pp], Pillow Ridge may be the best documentation of a regional high stand of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) in the middle Pleistocene, and an excellent example of the lithofacies and stratigraphic complexities produced by variations in water levels during a prolonged glaciovolcanic eruption.  相似文献   

Zooplankton Feeding Ecology: Grazing by Marine Copepods and Cladocerans upon Phytoplankton and Cyanobacteria from Kingston Harbour, Jamaica     

Jefferson T.  Turner  Russell R.  Hopcroft  Jean A.  Lincoln  Cameran Sassman  Huestis  Patricia A.  Tester John c.  Roff 《Marine Ecology》1998,19(3):195-208

Abstract. Grazing by the copepods Temora turbinata and Acartia lilljeborgii and the marine cladoceran Penilia avirostris on natural phytoplankton and cyanobacteria assemblages from Kingston Harbour. Jamaica, was examined in summer 1992. Food assemblages were often dominated by an unidentified filamentous cyanobacterium. with abundances of up to 1.16 × 10⁴ filaments. ml^-1. Other abundant phytoplankters included microflagellates and diatoms of the genus Niteschia. Mean clearance rates for the entire food assemblage ranged from 0.10 to 2.41 ml animal^-1. h^-1, although most mean clearance rates were between 0.5 and 1.5 ml. animal^-1 h^-1. Patterns of selection of different food items by various grazers on different dates were variable and inconsistent. Microscopic measurements revealed that cyanobacterial filament lengths were shorter in grazed than initial aliquots during a cyanobacterium bloom in August. This suggests that grazers reduced lengths of many filaments by biting off portions, in addition to consuming entire filaments. Such ‘filament clipping’ of cyanobacteria filaments has been recorded previously in freshwater studies and suggests that grazers impact a larger portion of the phytoplankton assemblage than is accounted for by ingestion and clearance rates based only upon removal of filaments. Grazers exhibited no adverse effects from consuming cyanobacteria. Cyanobacterkd are often considered to be toxic or of poor food quality for planktonic grazers. but due to the high abundance and dominance of filamentous cyanobacteria in Kingston Harbour. if these cyanobacteria were ungrazed. there would at times be little alternative phytoplankton food for copepods and cladocerans. Our results suggest that the trophic role of tilamentous cyanobacteria in pelagic food webs of the tropical ocean should be further investigated and possibly reconsidered.  相似文献