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Climate Dynamics - We investigate the response of the atmospheric and land surface components of the CMIP5/AR5 Earth System model HadGEM2-ES to pre-industrial (PI: AD 1860) and last glacial maximum... 相似文献
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Peter O. Hopcroft Kerry Gallagher Chris C. Pain 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(3):1430-1439
Estimates of past climate derived from borehole temperatures are assuming a greater importance in context of the millennial temperature variation debate. However, recovery of these signals is usually performed with regularization which can potentially lead to underestimation of past variation when noise is present. In this work Bayesian inference is applied to this problem with no explicit regularization. To achieve this Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo is employed, and this allows models of varying complexity (i.e. variable dimensions) to be sampled so that it is possible to infer the level of ground surface temperature (GST) history resolution appropriate to the data. Using synthetic examples, we show that the inference of the GST signal back to more than 500 yr is robust given boreholes of 500 m depth and moderate noise levels and discuss the associated uncertainties. We compare the prior information we have used with the inferred posterior distribution to show which parts of the GST reconstructions are independent of this prior information. We demonstrate the application of the method to real data using five boreholes from southern England. These are modelled both individually and jointly, and appear to indicate a spatial trend of warming over 500 yr across the south of the country. 相似文献
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Jefferson T. Turner Russell R. Hopcroft Jean A. Lincoln Cameran Sassman Huestis Patricia A. Tester John c. Roff 《Marine Ecology》1998,19(3):195-208
Abstract. Grazing by the copepods Temora turbinata and Acartia lilljeborgii and the marine cladoceran Penilia avirostris on natural phytoplankton and cyanobacteria assemblages from Kingston Harbour. Jamaica, was examined in summer 1992. Food assemblages were often dominated by an unidentified filamentous cyanobacterium. with abundances of up to 1.16 × 104 filaments. ml-1. Other abundant phytoplankters included microflagellates and diatoms of the genus Niteschia. Mean clearance rates for the entire food assemblage ranged from 0.10 to 2.41 ml animal-1. h-1, although most mean clearance rates were between 0.5 and 1.5 ml. animal-1 h-1. Patterns of selection of different food items by various grazers on different dates were variable and inconsistent. Microscopic measurements revealed that cyanobacterial filament lengths were shorter in grazed than initial aliquots during a cyanobacterium bloom in August. This suggests that grazers reduced lengths of many filaments by biting off portions, in addition to consuming entire filaments. Such ‘filament clipping’ of cyanobacteria filaments has been recorded previously in freshwater studies and suggests that grazers impact a larger portion of the phytoplankton assemblage than is accounted for by ingestion and clearance rates based only upon removal of filaments. Grazers exhibited no adverse effects from consuming cyanobacteria. Cyanobacterkd are often considered to be toxic or of poor food quality for planktonic grazers. but due to the high abundance and dominance of filamentous cyanobacteria in Kingston Harbour. if these cyanobacteria were ungrazed. there would at times be little alternative phytoplankton food for copepods and cladocerans. Our results suggest that the trophic role of tilamentous cyanobacteria in pelagic food webs of the tropical ocean should be further investigated and possibly reconsidered. 相似文献
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