Public expectation as an element of human perception of climate change   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Martine Rebetez 《Climatic change》1996,32(4):495-509

Human expectations regarding weather and climate sometimes lead to perceptions of climate change which are not supported by observational evidence. This paper analyses two very characteristic complaints about current climate in Switzerland, i.e., the lack of snow in winter and the lack of sunshine in summer, through a statistical investigation of climatological data. As one major problem of public perception of climate in mid-latitude regions is linked to the strong variability of the climatic parameters, the paper suggests means of presenting climatic data which include a measure of this variability. Such presentations would help overcome the common confusion between the terms weather and climate, and stress the fact that short-term extreme events are not necessarily indicative of a long-term shift in climate.  相似文献   

Eastern Mediterranean palaeoclimates from 26 to 5 ka B.P. documented by pollen and isotopic analysis of a core in the anoxic Bannock Basin     

Rachid Cheddadi  Martine Rossignol-Strick  Michel Fontugne 《Marine Geology》1991,100(1-4):53-66

Continuous pollen and isotopic records were established for core BAN 84 09 GC retrieved from the anoxic Bannock Basin in the Eastern Mediterranean. On the basis of two ¹⁴C dates, they document the palaeoclimate between about 25.7 ka B.P. and 5.2 ka B.P. in the northern borderlands of the Ionian Basin. The upper half of the core has been redeposited.

The isotopic record displays a correlation with pollen percentages that is strong and positive for Artemisia (sage-brush) and negative for Quercus (oak). The last glacial maximum and the deglaciation are identified by these combined taxa, together with Chenopodiaceae. The glacial maximum around 18 ka B.P. (which has elsewhere been dated from 20 to 15 ka B.P.) has pollen percentages that are high for Artemisia and low for Quercus. The climate in the pollen source area was arid, cold in winter, briefly warm in summer and sustained the vegetation of a semi-desert. The onset of deglaciation after 18 ka B.P. coincides with that of the decline in Artemisia pollen percentage. However, this decline does not indicate reduced aridity, because it is accompanied by a pollen percentage rise of the even more arid herbs Chenopodiaceae and Ephedra. Throughout the deglaciation from 18 to 11 ka B.P., the aridity progressively increases, culminating at 11 ka B.P. This trend is briefly interrupted by a more humid event, shown by a peak in Artemisia pollen percentage and a smaller peak in oak; these two peaks are coeval with the Bölling-Alleröd chronozone (13-11 ka B.P.). Maximum aridity occurs during the Younger Dryas chronozone (11-10 ka B.P.). Afterwards, the oak pollen percentage begins a steady increase, and its maximum value is coeval with the lowest isotopic value, dated at 8760 ± 170 yr B.P. This period was one of high moisture, warm summers, and, according to altitude, mild to cool winters. This climate sustained forests that were Mediterranean in the lowlands and warm temperate in the uplands. A high pollen concentration is observed during this period and reveals the presence of sapropel S1, which is otherwise unrecognizable in this entirely black core. During the following period between 8760 ± 170 and 5200 yr B.P., the δ¹⁸0 reverts to slightly higher values and the Quercus pollen percentage decreases, while the pollen percentage of the wetter Ostrya, the oriental hornbeam, increases. The high pollen concentration during the deposition of sapropel S1 cannot have been caused by increased pollen input into the sea, this pollen being wind-borne, nor by increased pollen production for all taxa, both trees and herbs. We conclude that it is entirely due to increased preservation of this allochtonous organic material by the deep anoxia of the bottom water, below a thick anoxic water column. The coincidence of sapropel deposition with warm and humid local climate as well as with the second global meltwater pulse suggests that the cessation of bottom-water ventilation was due to decreased surface water density, resulting from less saline incoming Atlantic surface water, increased local runoff, and warmer winters.  相似文献   

Change and stability in landings: the responses of fisheries to scientific advice and TACs     

Patterson  Kenneth; Resimont  Martine 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):714-717

  相似文献   

The Holocene volcanic history of Gran Canaria island: implications for volcanic hazards     

Alejandro Rodriguez‐Gonzalez  Jose L. Fernandez‐Turiel  Francisco J. Perez‐Torrado  Alex Hansen  Meritxell Aulinas  Juan C. Carracedo  Domingo Gimeno  Hervé Guillou  Raphaël Paris  Martine Paterne 《第四纪科学杂志》2009,24(7):697-709

Previous published data, combined with our results of 13 new radiocarbon ages and extensive geological fieldwork, indicate that during the past 11 ka 24 monogenetic basaltic eruptions occurred in the north sector of Gran Canaria. These eruptions can be grouped into three periods of eruptive activity: 1900–3200 ¹⁴C a BP; 5700–6000 ¹⁴C a BP; and an older period represented by only one eruption, El Draguillo, dated at 10 610 ± 190 ¹⁴C a BP. Archaeological studies have shown that the more recent eruptions affected prehistoric human settlements on the island. Field studies demonstrate that the eruptions typically built strombolian cones (30–250 m in height) and associated relatively long lava flows (100–10 350 m in length); a few eruptions also produced tephra fall deposits. The total erupted volume of these eruptions is about 0.388 km³ (46.1% as tephra fall, 41.8% as cinder cone deposits and 12.1% as lava flows). The relatively low eruption rate (～0.04 km³ ka^?1) during the past 11 ka is consistent with Gran Canaria's stage of evolution in the regional volcano‐tectonic setting of the Canary Archipelago. The results of our study were used to construct a volcanic hazards map that clearly delimits two sectors in the NE sector of Gran Canaria, where potential future eruptions would pose a substantial risk for densely populated areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Late glacial to Holocene planktic foraminifera bioevents and climatic record in the South Adriatic Sea     

Giuseppe Siani  Martine Paterne  Christophe Colin 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(5):808-821

Quantitative analyses of planktic foraminifera, sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs), oxygen isotope and radiocarbon dating from a deep‐sea core recovered in the South Adriatic Sea have been used to reconstruct a subcentennial climatic and biochronological record since the late glacial (the last 24 cal. ka BP). The identification and relative abundance of 25 species of planktic foraminifera along the core have provided a continuous record of the faunal changes over this time interval. These results have permitted the establishment of 10 biozones in the South Adriatic Sea based on the appearance and/or disappearance of the main specific taxa, from peaks of abundance and/or by modification in marine conditions. The robust chronology of the South Adriatic core allowed correlation of SST estimates to the GISP2 ice core record, indicating that the main climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores over the last 24 ka are recorded and globally synchronous with those observed in the South Adriatic Sea. This finding further allows comparison of the planktic foraminifera record with the event stratigraphic scheme proposed by the INTIMATE group in order to better identify the relationship between past climatic changes and the response of microfaunal assemblages in the South Adriatic. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Formation of phyllosilicates in a fault zone affecting deeply buried arkosic sandstones: their influence on petrophysic properties (Annot sandstones, French external Alps)     

Henri Leclère  Martine Buatier  Delphine Charpentier  Jean-Pierre Sizun  Pierre Labaume  Thibault Cavailhes 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2012,105(2):299-312

The Restefond fault, located in the Late Eocene-Early Oligocene Alpine foreland basin, affects the well lithified and low porosity Grès d??Annot. The fault core zone is characterized by the occurrence of highly deformed sandstone lenses. Deformation inside the lenses corresponds to mm to sub-mm-spaced cleavage planes rich in phyllosilicates and up to cm-thick and dm-long quartz-calcite pure extensional veins. The cleavages are mostly composed of newly-formed synkinematic white mica and chlorite. By using thermodynamic thermometers based on the chemical composition of chlorite, a temperature of 200?±?20?°C of fault activity was computed. This temperature shows that the Restefond fault was active at burial conditions comprised between 6.5 and 8?km, assuming a mean geothermal gradient between 25 and 30?°Ckm^?1. The petrophysic properties of sandstones from the core zone and in the hanging and foot wall of the fault were determined on drilled plugs following three spacial directions. The permeability of the highly deformed sandstone from the core zone is about one order of magnitude higher than in the host rock. This increase in permeability occurs in the direction parallel to the S?CC structures and is explained by the occurrence of well-connected micropores localized between platy phyllosilicates. This study shows that the fault petrophysic properties are mostly controlled by the precipitation of synkinematic phyllosilicates under deep burial conditions.  相似文献   

An improved description of the interactions between rare earth elements and humic acids by modeling: PHREEQC-Model VI coupling     

Rémi Marsac  Mélanie Davranche  Gérard Gruau  Martine Bouhnik-Le Coz  Aline Dia 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(19):5625-5637

The Humic Ion Binding Model VI (Model VI) - previously used to model the equilibrium binding of rare earth elements (REE) by humic acid (HA) - was modified to account for differences in the REE constant patterns of the HA carboxylic and phenolic groups, and introduced into PHREEQC to calculate the REE speciation on the HA binding sites. The modifications were shown to greatly improve the modeling. They allow for the first time to both satisfactorily and simultaneously model a large set of multi-REE experimental data with the same set of equations and parameters. The use of PHREEQC shows that the light rare earth elements (LREE) and heavy rare earth elements (HREE) do not bind to HA by the same functional groups. The LREE are preferentially bound to carboxylic groups, whereas the HREE are preferentially bound to carboxy-phenolic and phenolic groups. This binding differentiation might lead to a fractionation of REE-HA patterns when competition between REE and other metals occur during complexation. A survey of the available data shows that competition with Al³⁺ could lead to the development of HREE-depleted HA patterns. This new model should improve the hydrochemical modeling of the REE since PHREEQC takes into account chemical reactions such as mineral dissolution/precipitation equilibrium and redox reactions, but also models kinetically controlled reactions and one-dimensional transport.  相似文献   

Hydrothermal alteration in andesitic volcanoes: Trace element redistribution in active and ancient hydrothermal systems of Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles)     

Anne Salaün  Benoît Villemant  Martine Gérard  Jean-Christophe Komorowski  Agnès Michel 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2011,111(3):59-83

The mineralogy and the trace element compositions of hydrothermally-altered volcanic materials collected from ash fall deposits and in four debris-avalanche deposits (DADs) at La Soufrière volcano in Guadeloupe have been determined. Phreatic explosions of the 1976 eruption and flank collapse events have sampled various parts of the active and ancient hydrothermal systems of the volcano. Hydrothermal mineral assemblages (smectite + silica polymorphs ± pyrite/jarosite ± gypsum) are typical of rock alteration by low-temperature acid-sulphate fluids. High-temperature mineral assemblages are rare, indicating that phreatic explosions and flank collapse events have sampled mainly the upper parts of the volcanic edifice.Andesitic eruptive products affected by shallow hydrothermal alteration are complex assemblages of volcanic materials (glass, phenocrysts and xenocrysts with complex magmatic histories) of different ages and compositions. The use of incompatible element ratios and REE compositions normalised to an unaltered reference material overcomes the interpretation difficulties related to mass balance effects of alteration processes and the petrologic heterogeneity of the initial material.REE and other incompatible elements (Th, U, Hf, Zr) are mainly concentrated in the glassy matrix of unaltered andesitic rocks. Secondary S-bearing mineral phases (e.g., gypsum, jarosite) that have precipitated from acid-sulphate fluids do not contain substantial incompatible elements (REE, U, Th, Hf, Zr). Compositional variations of incompatible elements in hydrothermally-altered andesitic materials reflect mainly volcanic glass–smectite transformation, which is characterised by (i) strong depletion of alkalis and alkaline earths (Ba, Sr) and first transition series elements (Zn, Cu, Cr, Co, Ni), (ii) immobility of highly incompatible elements (Th, Zr, Hf, LREE) and (iii) strong depletion of MREE and HREE. The sigmoid shape of normalised REE pattern is characteristic of glass–smectite transformation by low-temperature acid-sulphate fluids. This transformation also produces significant variations in U/Th values, which offer the opportunity to date the cessation of hydrothermal alteration and to reconstruct the evolution in space and time of hydrothermal activity in a volcanic edifice.  相似文献   

Volcanic ash hazard in the Central Mediterranean assessed from geological data     

Roberto Sulpizio  Giovanni Zanchetta  Benoit Caron  Pierfrancesco Dellino  Daniela Mele  Biagio Giaccio  Donatella Insinga  Martine Paterne  Giuseppe Siani  Antonio Costa  Giovanni Macedonio  Roberto Santacroce 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2014,76(10):1-8

Volcanic ash produced during explosive eruptions can have very severe impacts on modern technological societies. Here, we use reconstructed patterns of fine ash dispersal recorded in terrestrial and marine geological archives to assess volcanic ash hazards. The ash-dispersal maps from nine Holocene explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes have been used to construct frequency maps of distal ash deposition over a wide area, which encompasses central and southern Italy, the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas and the Balkans. The maps are presented as two cumulative-thickness isopach maps, one for nine eruptions from different volcanoes and one for six eruptions from Somma-Vesuvius. These maps represent the first use of distal ash layers to construct volcanic hazard maps, and the proposed methodology is easily applicable to other volcanic areas worldwide.  相似文献   

Internal structure of Piton de la Fournaise volcano from seismic wave propagation and earthquake distribution     

Alexandre Nercessian  Alfred Hirn  Jean-Claude Lpine  Martine Sapin 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1996,70(3-4)

Arrival times of seismic waves from local earthquakes are inverted for both locating the source and defining the 3-D velocity heterogeneity of Piton de la Fournaise.The lateral heterogeneity of the 2632 m high edifice is resolved as a high-velocity plug, 1.5 km in diameter, surrounded by a low-velocity ring, which may be interpreted as due to the construction of Fournaise on the flank of the older volcano Piton des Neiges. Wave mode conversion detected on three-component seismograms provides evidence for boundaries of contrasted velocities.Pre-eruptive swarm earthquakes cluster in the high-velocity zone, under the Dolomieu summit crater. Low strength and cohesion of the surrounding material account for the lack of seismicity for the final 1–3 km radial flow of magma to the vents in Enclos Fouqué.Beneath the high-velocity plug the existence of a body with low velocity for P, and even for S, waves is well constrained. However, the walls and base are poorly defined because of the lack of deep earthquakes for sampling. The few earthquakes that are located in this depth region usually occur at a depth of around 1.5 km below sea level in the region of the cone. This can be considered providing the upper constraint on the lower limit of the aseismic part of the low-velocity body. The coincidence in time of their occurrence with the swarms above sea level and the eruptions suggests magmatic activation of the low-velocity aseismic volume 1.5 km below sea level under the high-velocity plug of the cone. Further down, the concentration of seismicity in two swarms, between 2 and 4 km, under the eastern flank does not allow the structure to be sampled effectively.  相似文献