Vikings and virtues: a decade of CO2 taxation     

Mikael Skou Andersen 《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):13-24

Abstract

Experience with implementation of CO² taxes spans almost a decade in the Nordic countries, and time is ripe for an evaluation of their performance. In contrast to ex-ante forecasts, empirical research can show the extent to which such taxes deliver on the assumptions of economic theory. A survey of the existing literature shows that there are currently 20 ex-post studies of the full or partial effects of CO² taxes. Evaluations are complicated by frequent changes in tax rates, widespread exemptions and the ‘too many variables’ problem. Attempts have been made to deal with these problems by using a variety of approaches and research techniques, some more advanced than others. On balance the studies appear to show that emissions have been curbed when compared to businessas-usual forecasts, while absolute CO² reduction remains the exception. Among the Nordic countries, Denmark's scheme, which combines taxes with subsidies for energy efficiency, seems to have attained the most marked results, although the achieved reductions also reflect the higher carbon content of the Danish energy sector. The evaluations differ considerably in scope, approach and methodology. Methodological issues connected with expost evaluation are considered. An adequate evaluation of the impact of the CO² taxes, in both environmental and economic terms, will require the establishment of comprehensive panel databases of energy consumers.  相似文献   

Geostatistical approach for the assessment of the water reservoir capacity in arid regions: a case study of the Akdarya reservoir,Uzbekistan     

Shavkat Rakhmatullaev  Antoine Marache  Frédéric Huneau  Philippe Le Coustumer  Masharif Bakiev  Mikael Motelica-Heino 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,63(3):447-460

The paper presents the results of a new geostatistical approach to generate bathymetric surface models from point measurement converted into continuous contour surfaces of reservoir bottoms in Uzbekistan. Sedimentation of reservoirs raises engineering, environmental and economical issues for the communities around the world in areas affected by a strong water deficit. Because of Uzbekistan’s arid climatic conditions, and uneven spatial and temporal water resources distribution, responsive and innovative water availability assessment surveys of all major water reservoirs are required. Bathymetric surveying is a traditional method that is carried out for the estimation of reservoir volumes and surface areas of the corresponding reservoir stages in order to assess the water availability. Volume and surface area differences derived from multiple surveys of a reservoir provide storage loss estimates over time due to sedimentation. However, two main factors, such as intensive field data measurement and post data-processing, often limit the frequency of these surveys. Alternatively, innovative depth measurement technologies coupled with contouring and surface mapping programs provide automated reservoir volume and surface area calculations. This significantly reduces time, workload and financial burdens for reservoir sedimentation projects. This research proposes the use of geostatistical approach to assess the reservoir sedimentation in the Akdarya reservoir of Uzbekistan. The geostatistical approach includes (semi-) variogram analysis and interpolation (kriging and simulations—turning bands) techniques predicting values at unsampled locations for generating digital bathymetric surface models of reservoir bottom conditions in order to calculate the volume and surface area at a given water elevation. The simulation enables to have range of reservoir volumes and surface areas with the same probability, in comparison to the kriging and traditional methods. This gives a real estimation of the resource availability for water operators to manage natural resources and hydraulic infrastructure in a sustainable manner.  相似文献   

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mikael Höök  Junchen Li  Noriaki Oba  Simon Snowden 《Natural Resources Research》2011,20(2):103-116

This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models. A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but they do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources being considered as a basis for the continued well-being of the society and the mankind, resource management should be treated as an important factor in future social planning.  相似文献   

Environmental policies and marine engines—effects on the development and adoption of innovations     

Heli Hyvttinen  Mikael Hildn 《Marine Policy》2004,28(6):397

This study indicates that environmental policy interventions significantly influence the innovation processes for reducing the emissions of marine engine technology. Several different types of interventions have been important and the effect is not directly proportional to the strength or spatial coverage of the intervention. Despite its relative weakness, the MARPOL rule on NO_x emissions has contributed to technology development. We also show that the rise of environmental issues in other fields has had a marked effect on the development of the marine sector and that relatively local interventions can influence innovation even in an international sector like marine transport.  相似文献   

The Multiscale TROPIcal CatchmentS critical zone observatory M-TROPICS dataset I: The Nyong River Basin,Cameroon     

Stéphane Audry  Henriette Ateba Bessa  Jean-Pierre Bedimo Bedimo  Jean-Loup Boeglin  Laurie Boithias  Jean-Jacques Braun  Bernard Dupré  Mikael Faucheux  Christelle Lagane  Jean-Christophe Maréchal  Jules Remy Ndam-Ngoupayou  Bernadette Nka Nnomo  Justin Nlozoa  Jean-Claude Ntonga  Olivier Ribolzi  Jean Riotte  Emma Rochelle-Newall  Laurent Ruiz 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14138

Simultaneously acquiring time series of climate, hydrology and hydrochemical data over decades on river systems is pivotal to understand the complex interactions involving rock, soil water, air and biota in the Critical Zone, to build integrated modelling and to propose predictive scenarios. Among the Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs) implemented in the past 25 years, only a few are located in the humid Tropics despite the importance of these regions in terms of population density, fast-changing land use, biodiversity hotspots, biomass stock on continents, size of river systems, etc. Since 1994, weathering and erosion processes and fluxes have been investigated at both local (experimental watershed) and regional scales in the Nyong River Basin (Cameroon) which belongs to the Critical Zone Observatories network named Multiscale TROPIcal CatchmentS (M-TROPICS). The data shared by M-TROPICS in Cameroon are: (1) rainfall; (2) air temperature, air relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and global radiation; (3) stream and river water level; (4) pH, electrical conductivity, water temperature and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration; (5) major ion, alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. The dataset already contributed to describe the water partitioning in these tropical humid watersheds, to better understand the factors controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion in tropical ecosystems, particularly the role of organic matter. The dataset also contributed to calculate elemental weathering fluxes and saprolite production rate and to propose denudation rates on tropical cratonic landscapes. Hydrological modelling allowed quantification of the geographical water sources contributing to streamflow. DOC data were used to determine greenhouse-gas emissions and carbon budgets from African inland waters. However, long-term solute concentrations at the outlet of a small tributary of the Nyong River exhibit non-stationary behaviour over the last 26 years. The processes governing those fluctuations are not yet fully understood and might be related to changes in the hydrological regime, land-cover and land-use. The latter highlights the need for longer time-series and continued support for CZOs particularly in the humid tropics.  相似文献   

Endemic avifaunal biodiversity and tropical forest loss in Makira, a mountainous Pacific island     

Finn Danielsen  Christopher E. Filardi  Knud A. Jønsson  Victor Kohaia  Niels Krabbe  Jan B. Kristensen  Robert G. Moyle  Patrick Pikacha  Michael K. Poulsen  Mikael K. Sørensen  Charles Tatahu  Joseph Waihuru  Jon Fjeldså 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2010,31(1):100-114

Anthropogenic habitat changes and the introduction of pigs, dogs, cats and rats have caused a catastrophic decline in the terrestrial biodiversity of Pacific archipelagos. At present, economic globalization and an increased demand for timber are promoting industrial logging and plantation expansion. Commercial logging can be sustainable but in practice it more often leads to land degradation, especially on small flat islands. On large and mountainous islands, however, more modest impacts can be expected as the narrowly endemic species tend to inhabit montane forests where logging is difficult. In this study we use ornithological data collected at different elevations to assess the extent to which the avifauna of Makira, a large mountainous island in Melanesia, will be affected by deforestation of the lowlands, most of which are under timber concessions. Our data suggest that a majority of the endemic bird species use lowland forest to some extent and that this may even apply to species hitherto associated with montane forest. If current commercial forestry programmes are continued, the forest habitat may be disturbed or lost over large parts of Makira, potentially undermining the natural resource base for the local subsistence economy, exacerbating climate change and threatening the integrity of one of the most important areas for biodiversity conservation on earth. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the habitat requirements of endemic species and the urgency of establishing and effectively managing community-based protected areas in suitable lowland forests of the Pacific.  相似文献   

OpenOrb: Open‐source asteroid orbit computation software including statistical ranging     

Mikael Granvik  Jenni Virtanen  Dagmara Oszkiewicz  Karri Muinonen 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(12):1853-1861

Abstract— We are making an open‐source asteroid orbit computation software package called OpenOrb publicly available. OpenOrb is built on a well‐established Bayesian inversion theory, which means that it is to a large part complementary to orbit‐computation packages currently available. In particular, OpenOrb is the first package that contains tools for rigorously estimating the uncertainties resulting from the inverse problem of computing orbital elements using scarce astrometry. In addition to the well‐known least‐squares method, OpenOrb also contains both Monte‐Carlo (MC) and Markov‐Chain MC (MCMC; Oszkiewicz et al. [2009]) versions of the statistical ranging method. Ranging allows the user to obtain sampled, non‐Gaussian orbital‐element probability‐density functions and is therefore optimized for cases where the amount of astrometry is scarce or spans a relatively short time interval. Ranging‐based methods have successfully been applied to a variety of different problems such as rigorous ephemeris prediction, orbital element distribution studies for transneptunian objects, the computation of invariant collision probabilities between near‐Earth objects and the Earth, detection of linkages between astrometric asteroid observations within an apparition as well as between apparitions, and in the rigorous analysis of the impact of orbital arc length and/or astrometric uncertainty on the uncertainty of the resulting orbits. Tools for making ephemeris predictions and for classifying objects based on their orbits are also available in OpenOrb. As an example, we use OpenOrb in the search for candidate retrograde and/or high‐inclination objects similar to 2008 KV₄₂ in the known population of transneptunian objects that have an observational time span shorter than 30 days.  相似文献   

Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest     

Kristina Blennow  Mikael Andersson  Johan Bergh  Ola Sallnäs  Erika Olofsson 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):261-278

We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.  相似文献   

East-west faults due to planetary contraction     

Mikael Beuthe 《Icarus》2010,209(2):795-817

Contraction, expansion and despinning have been common in the past evolution of Solar System bodies. These processes deform the lithosphere until it breaks along faults. Their characteristic tectonic patterns have thus been sought for on all planets and large satellites with an ancient surface. While the search for despinning tectonics has not been conclusive, there is good observational evidence on several bodies for the global faulting pattern associated with contraction or expansion, though the pattern is seldom isotropic as predicted. The cause of the non-random orientation of the faults has been attributed either to regional stresses or to the combined action of contraction/expansion with another deformation (despinning, tidal deformation, reorientation). Another cause of the mismatch may be the neglect of the lithospheric thinning at the equator or at the poles due either to latitudinal variation in solar insolation or to localized tidal dissipation. Using thin elastic shells with variable thickness, I show that the equatorial thinning of the lithosphere transforms the homogeneous and isotropic fault pattern caused by contraction/expansion into a pattern of faults striking east-west, preferably formed in the equatorial region. By contrast, lithospheric thickness variations only weakly affect the despinning faulting pattern consisting of equatorial strike-slip faults and polar normal faults. If contraction is added to despinning, the despinning pattern first shifts to thrust faults striking north-south and then to thrust faults striking east-west. If the lithosphere is thinner at the poles, the tectonic pattern caused by contraction/expansion consists of faults striking north/south. I start by predicting the main characteristics of the stress pattern with symmetry arguments. I further prove that the solutions for contraction and despinning are dual if the inverse elastic thickness is limited to harmonic degree two, making it easy to determine fault orientation for combined contraction and despinning. I give two methods for solving the equations of elasticity, one numerical and the other semi-analytical. The latter method yields explicit formulas for stresses as expansions in Legendre polynomials about the solution for constant shell thickness. Though I only discuss the cases of a lithosphere thinner at the equator or at the poles, the method is applicable for any latitudinal variation of the lithospheric thickness. On Iapetus, contraction or expansion on a lithosphere thinner at the equator explains the location and orientation of the equatorial ridge. On Mercury, the combination of contraction and despinning makes possible the existence of zonal provinces of thrust faults differing in orientation (north-south or east-west), which may be relevant to the orientation of lobate scarps.  相似文献   

A multiple-code simulation study of the long-term EDZ evolution of geological nuclear waste repositories     

Jonny Rutqvist  Ann Bäckström  Masakazu Chijimatsu  Xia-Ting Feng  Peng-Zhi Pan  John Hudson  Lanru Jing  Akira Kobayashi  Tomofumi Koyama  Hee-Suk Lee  Xiao-Hua Huang  Mikael Rinne  Baotang Shen 《Environmental Geology》2009,57(6):1313-1324

This simulation study shows how widely different model approaches can be adapted to model the evolution of the excavation disturbed zone (EDZ) around a heated nuclear waste emplacement drift in fractured rock. The study includes modeling of coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) processes, with simplified consideration of chemical coupling in terms of time-dependent strength degradation or subcritical crack growth. The different model approaches applied in this study include boundary element, finite element, finite difference, particle mechanics, and elasto-plastic cellular automata methods. The simulation results indicate that thermally induced differential stresses near the top of the emplacement drift may cause progressive failure and permeability changes during the first 100 years (i.e., after emplacement and drift closure). Moreover, the results indicate that time-dependent mechanical changes may play only a small role during the first 100 years of increasing temperature and thermal stress, whereas such time-dependency is insignificant after peak temperature, because of decreasing thermal stress.  相似文献