Spatial modelling and uncertainty assessment of pyroclastic cover thickness in the Sorrento Peninsula     

Federica Lucà  Gabriele Buttafuoco  Gaetano Robustelli  Antonio Malafronte 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(9):3353-3367

Assessing spatial variability of soil thickness is a critical issue for understanding and predicting slope processes. The present work was aimed at estimating the spatial scales at which the variation of pyroclastic cover thickness occurs in a sample area in the Sorrento Peninsula (Italy). Stochastic simulation was used to understand the spatial variability of pyroclastic cover thickness on Mount Pendolo and to assess its spatial uncertainty. In the study area, covering about 0.7 km², thickness measurements were collected using electrical resistivity tomography profiles, continuous core drillings and steel rod penetrometric tests. Variographic analysis revealed the occurrence of an anisotropic behaviour along the N50 and N140 directions. In the latter anisotropic direction, a nested variogram was fitted including (1) a long-range component which could be related to large-scale factors, like the curvature of the slope and contributing area and (2) a shorter scale variation which is probably associated with the occurrence of denudation processes or to the articulate cover/bedrock interface. To assess the spatial variability and uncertainty of pyroclastic cover thickness, a stochastic simulation algorithm was used and 500 equally probable images of cover thickness were yielded. The results showed that a better thickness distribution map can be drawn by simulating the data collected on the slope and at the footslope separately. The approach also allowed delineating the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, suggesting supplementary measurements to further improve the cover thickness distribution model, thus reducing the uncertainty.  相似文献   

On the Centre Manifold of Collinear Points in the Planar Three-Body Problem     

Regina Martínez  Anna Samà 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2003,85(4):311-340

We study the existence of invariant tori in a neighbourhood of the collinear equilibrium points of the planar three-body problem. To this end some properties of the normal form of the Hamiltonian reduced to the 4D central manifold are proved. Using this normal form, we show that the nondegeneracy conditions of KAM theorem are satisfied for all positive masses, including the 2:1 resonance case. The evaluation of the conditions is done numerically.  相似文献   

Objective probabilities about future climate are a matter of opinion     

Carlos Gay  Francisco Estrada 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):27-46

In this paper, the unfeasibility of producing “objective” probabilistic climate change scenarios is discussed. Realizing that the knowledge of “true” probabilities of the different scenarios and temperature changes is unachievable, the objective must be to find the probabilities that are the most consistent with what our state of knowledge and expert judgment are. Therefore, subjective information plays, and should play, a crucial role. A new methodology, based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, is proposed for constructing probabilistic climate change scenarios when only partial information is available. The objective is to produce relevant information for decision-making according to different agents’ judgment and subjective beliefs. These estimates have desirable properties such as: they are the least biased estimate possible on the available information; maximize the uncertainty (entropy) subject to the partial information that is given; The maximum entropy distribution assigns a positive probability to every event that is not excluded by the given information; no possibility is ignored. The probabilities obtained in this manner are the best predictions possible with the state of knowledge and subjective information that is available. This methodology allows distinguishing between reckless and cautious positions regarding the climate change threat.  相似文献   

Difference in petrophysical properties between foliated and dilatant fault rocks in deeply buried clastics: The case of the Grès d'Annot Formation,SW French Alps     

Thibault Cavailhes  Pierre Labaume  Jean‐Pierre Sizun  Roger Soliva  Claude Gout  Jean‐Luc Potdevin  Martine Buatier  Aurélien Gay  Alain Chauvet  Delphine Charpentier  Anna Travé 《地学学报》2014,26(4):298-306

This study describes normal fault zones formed in foreland arkosic turbidites (the Grès d'Annot Formation, SW French Alps) under deep diagenesis conditions (~200 °C) and highlights the occurrence of two markedly different fault‐rock types: (1) the foliated fault rocks of the Moutière‐Restefond area; and (2) the dilatant fault rocks of the Estrop area. The deformation of (1) is dominated by intra‐ and transgranular fracturing, pressure solution of quartz and feldspar grains and syn‐kinematic phyllosilicate precipitation resulting from feldspar alteration. The combination of these mechanisms results in a strongly anisotropic strain with intense shortening normal to the foliation (pressure solution) and extension parallel to the foliation (quartz‐ and calcite‐sealed extension veins). This deformation implies local mass transfer that may be achieved without (or with limited) volume change. The deformation of (2) is expressed as dilatant quartz‐sealed veins and breccia textures in which the main mechanisms are transgranular fracturing and quartz precipitation. Type (2) implies fault volume increase, isotropy of deformation and mass transfer at distances larger than in type (1). This study discusses the origins of (1) and (2) and shows that the permeability of (1) is anisotropic, with higher values than the host rocks parallel to the Y main deformation axis (i.e. perpendicular to the slip vector), whereas the permeability of (2) is isotropic and equivalent to that of the host rocks.  相似文献   

Low‐accommodation and backwater effects on sequence stratigraphic surfaces and depositional architecture of fluvio‐deltaic settings (Cretaceous Mesa Rica Sandstone,Dakota Group,USA)     

Anna E. van Yperen  John M. Holbrook  Miquel Poyatos‐Mor  Cody Myers  Ivar Midtkandal 《Basin Research》2021,33(1):513-543

The adequate documentation and interpretation of regional‐scale stratigraphic surfaces is paramount to establish correlations between continental and shallow marine strata. However, this is often challenged by the amalgamated nature of low‐accommodation settings and control of backwater hydraulics on fluvio‐deltaic stratigraphy. Exhumed examples of full‐transect depositional profiles across river‐to‐delta systems are key to improve our understanding about interacting controlling factors and resultant stratigraphy. This study utilizes the ~400 km transect of the Cenomanian Mesa Rica Sandstone (Dakota Group, USA), which allows mapping of down‐dip changes in facies, thickness distribution, fluvial architecture and spatial extent of stratigraphic surfaces. The two sandstone units of the Mesa Rica Sandstone represent contemporaneous fluvio‐deltaic deposition in the Tucumcari sub‐basin (Western Interior Basin) during two regressive phases. Multivalley deposits pass down‐dip into single‐story channel sandstones and eventually into contemporaneous distributary channels and delta‐front strata. Down‐dip changes reflect accommodation decrease towards the paleoshoreline at the Tucumcari basin rim, and subsequent expansion into the basin. Additionally, multi‐storey channel deposits bound by erosional composite scours incise into underlying deltaic deposits. These represent incised‐valley fill deposits, based on their regional occurrence, estimated channel tops below the surrounding topographic surface and coeval downstepping delta‐front geometries. This opposes criteria offered to differentiate incised valleys from flood‐induced backwater scours. As the incised valleys evidence relative sea‐level fall and flood‐induced backwater scours do not, the interpretation of incised valleys impacts sequence stratigraphic interpretations. The erosional composite surface below fluvial strata in the continental realm represents a sequence boundary/regional composite scour (RCS). The RCS’ diachronous nature demonstrates that its down‐dip equivalent disperses into several surfaces in the marine part of the depositional system, which challenges the idea of a single, correlatable surface. Formation of a regional composite scour in the fluvial realm throughout a relative sea‐level cycle highlights that erosion and deposition occur virtually contemporaneously at any point along the depositional profile. This contradicts stratigraphic models that interpret low‐accommodation settings to dominantly promote bypass, especially during forced regressions. Source‐to‐sink analyses should account for this in order to adequately resolve timing and volume of sediment storage in the system throughout a complete relative sea‐level cycle.  相似文献   

GPS differential code biases determination: methodology and analysis   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jaume Sanz  J. Miguel Juan  Adrià Rovira-Garcia  Guillermo González-Casado 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(4):1549-1561

  相似文献   

A Research Synthesis and Theoretical Model of Relationships Between Factors Influencing Outdoor Domestic Water Consumption     

Albert Llausàs  David Saurí 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(3):377-392

Outdoor domestic water use is often targeted by demand management strategies. However, despite a rich empirical evidence base coming from primary studies, it is still unclear how factors that influence this type of demand interact and which are the most suitable to be addressed by water conservation programs. Based on 423 scientific contributions, we develop a research synthesis combining a variety of techniques to create a theoretical model of the relationships among factors most consistently observed in the literature. The findings uncover a great degree of complexity in terms of interactions between spatial-structural, social-structural, and cultural and psychological factors at different scales. For researchers, the methodology and the outcomes can be useful to better frame existing and future research within the literature on the topic. In practice, the adaptation of the theoretical model to local specificities can facilitate the design of more efficient and integrated demand management strategies.  相似文献   

Seasonal patterns of pollen sedimentation in Lake Montcortès (Central Pyrenees) and potential applications to high-resolution paleoecology: a 2-year pilot study     

V. Rull  M. C. Trapote  E. Safont  N. Cañellas-Boltà  N. Pérez-Zanón  J. Sigró  T. Buchaca  T. Vegas-Vilarrúbia 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2017,57(1):95-108

Lakes with varved sediments are especially well suited for paleoecological study, from annual to even seasonal resolution. The interpretative power of such high-resolution paleoenvironmental reconstructions relies on the availability of modern analogs with the same temporal resolution. We studied seasonal pollen sedimentation in varved Lake Montcortès, Central Pyrenees (Spain), as a modern analog for high-resolution reconstruction of Late Holocene vegetation and landscape dynamics. Seasonal samples were obtained from sediment traps that were submerged near the maximum water depth for a 2-year period (fall 2013 to fall 2015). Seasonal pollen sedimentation was compared with meteorological variables from a nearby weather station. Bulk pollen sedimentation, dominated by Pinus (pine) and Quercus (oak), followed a clear seasonal pattern that peaked during the spring/summer, coinciding with maximum temperature and precipitation, minimum relative humidity and moderate winds from the SSE. Pollen sedimentation lags (PSL) were observed for most pollen types, as substantial amounts of pollen were found in the traps outside of their respective flowering seasons. Two pollen assemblages were clearly differentiated by their taxonomic composition, corresponding to spring/summer and fall/winter. This pattern is consistent with existing interpretation of the sediment varves, specifically, that varves are formed by two-layer couplets that represent the same seasonality as pollen. We concluded that pollen sedimentation in Lake Montcortès exhibits a strong seasonal signal in the quantity of pollen, the taxonomic composition of the pollen assembalges, and relationships between the pollen and meteorological variables. Thus, varved sediments provide a potentially powerful tool for paleoecological reconstruction at seasonal resolution. This method could be used not only to identify paleoenvironmental trends, but also to identify annual layers and therefore date sediments, even in the absence of evident sediment laminations. A satisfactory explanation of PSL will require further studies that examine internal lake dynamics and pollen production/dispersal patterns.  相似文献   

Subsidence and thermal history of an inverted Late Jurassic‐Early Cretaceous extensional basin (Cameros,North‐central Spain) affected by very low‐ to low‐grade metamorphism          下载免费PDF全文

Silvia Omodeo‐Salé  Ramon Salas  Joan Guimerà  Robert Ondrak  Ramon Mas  José Arribas  Isabel Suárez‐Ruiz  Luis Martinez 《Basin Research》2017,29(Z1):156-174

The Cameros Basin (North Spain) is a Late Jurassic‐Early Cretaceous extensional basin, which was inverted during the Cenozoic. It underwent a remarkable thermal evolution, as indicated by the record of anomalous high temperatures in its deposits. In this study, the subsidence and thermal history of the basin is reconstructed, using subsidence analysis and 2D thermal modelling. Tectonic subsidence curves provide evidence of the occurrence of two rapid subsidence phases during the syn‐extensional stage. In the first phase (Tithonian‐Early Berriasian), the largest accommodation space was formed in the central sector of the basin, whereas in the second (Early Barremian‐Early Albian), it was formed in the northern sector. These rapid subsidence phases could correspond to relevant tectonic events affecting the Iberian Plate at that time. By distinguishing between the initial and thermal subsidence and defining their relative magnitudes, Royden's (1986) method was used to estimate the heat flow at the end of the extensional stage. A maximum heat flow of 60–65 mW/m² is estimated, implying only a minor thermal disturbance associated with extension. In contrast with these data, very high vitrinite reflectance, anomalously distributed in some case with respect to the typical depth‐vitrinite reflectance relation, was measured in the central‐northern sector of the basin. Burial and thermal data are used to construct a 2D thermal basin model, to elucidate the role of the processes involved in sediment heating. Calibration of the thermal model with the vitrinite reflectance (%Ro) and fluid inclusion (FI) data indicates that in the central and northern sectors of the basin, an extra heat source, other than a typical rift, is required to explain the observed thermal anomalies. The distribution of the %Ro and FI values in these sectors suggests that the high temperatures and their distribution are related to the circulation of hot fluids. Hot fluids were attributed to the hydrothermal metamorphic events affecting the area during the early post‐extensional and inversion stages of the basin.  相似文献   

Quantification of the environmental structural risk with spoiling ties: is randomization worthwhile?     

R.?PappadàEmail author  F.?Durante  G.?Salvadori 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(10):2483-2497

Many recent works show that copulas turn out to be useful in a variety of different applications, especially in environmental sciences. Here the variables of interest are usually continuous, being times, lengths, weights, and so on. Unfortunately, the corresponding observations may suffer from (instrumental) adjustments and truncations, and eventually may show several repeated values (i.e., ties). In turn, on the one hand, a tricky issue of identifiability of the model arises, and, on the other hand, the assessment of the risk may be adversely affected. A possible remedy is to adopt suitable randomization procedures: here three different strategies are outlined. The goal of the work is to carry out a simulation study in order to evaluate the effects of the randomization of multivariate observations when ties are present. In particular, it is investigated whether, how, and to what extent, the randomization may change the estimation of the structural risk: for this purpose, a coastal engineering example will be used, as archetypical of a broad class of models and problems in engineering applications. Practical advices and warnings about the use of randomization techniques are hence given.  相似文献