Dynamic weather forecaster: results of the testing of a collaborative, on-line educational platform for weather forecasting     

Cinzia Cervato  William Gallus  Pete Boysen  Michael Larsen 《Earth Science Informatics》2011,4(4):181-189

The online Dynamic Weather Forecaster is an open, collaborative application available now to high-school and college instructors across the United States who would like to easily incorporate weather forecasting in their instruction. The application consists of a set of 13 questions that allow students to submit forecasts that cover most of the parameters used by professional weather forecasters. Submissions are automatically validated against weather parameters and graded. We tested the impact of the application on the learning of 199 undergraduate students in an introductory meteorology course in spring 2008. Students who begin forecasting early in the semester and continue to do so throughout the semester are statistically significantly more successful in the course than students who start late or complete a low number of forecasts. College, year in school, and gender were not significant predictors of success. Students found the application easy to use, and 92.3% of them found it at least somewhat helpful as they learned about the weather. Through the use of the DWF, students also experience first-hand that uncertainty is a critical part of weather forecasting and of scientific studies in general. With sufficient interest from potential users outside the USA, the DWF platform could easily be expanded to include global weather data.  相似文献   

An experimental study of the dissolution rates of simulated aluminoborosilicate waste glasses as a function of pH and temperature under dilute conditions     

Eric M. Pierce  Elsa A. Rodriguez  L.J. Calligan  Wendy J. Shaw  B. Pete McGrail 《Applied Geochemistry》2008

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A Computationally Efficient,Time-Dependent Model of the Solar Wind for Use as a Surrogate to Three-Dimensional Numerical Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations     

Owens  Mathew  Lang  Matthew  Barnard  Luke  Riley  Pete  Ben-Nun  Michal  Scott  Chris J.  Lockwood  Mike  Reiss  Martin A.  Arge  Charles N.  Gonzi  Siegfried 《Solar physics》2020,295(3):1-15

Solar radiation variability spans a wide range in time, ranging from seconds to decadal and longer. The nearly 40 years of measurements of solar irradiance from space established that the total solar irradiance varies by \(\approx 0.1\%\) in phase with the Sun’s magnetic cycle. Specific intervals of the solar spectrum, e.g., ultraviolet (UV), vary by orders of magnitude more. These variations can affect the Earth’s climate in a complex non-linear way. Specifically, some of the processes of interaction between solar UV radiation and the Earth’s atmosphere involve threshold processes and do not require a detailed reconstruction of the solar spectrum. For this reason a spectral UV index based on the (FUV-MUV) color has been recently introduced. This color is calculated using SORCE SOLSTICE integrated fluxes in the FUV and MUV bands. We present in this work the reconstructions of the solar (FUV-MUV) color and Ca ii K and Mg ii indices, from 1749–2015, using a semi-empirical approach based on the reconstruction of the area coverage of different solar magnetic features, i.e., sunspot, faculae and network. We remark that our results are in noteworthy agreement with latest solar UV proxy reconstructions that exploit more sophisticated techniques requiring historical full-disk observations. This makes us confident that our technique can represent an alternative approach which can complement classical solar reconstruction efforts. Moreover, this technique, based on broad-band observations, can be utilized to estimate the activity on Sun-like stars, that cannot be resolved spatially, hosting extra-solar planetary systems.

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The geochemistry,geochronology and paleomagnetism of dikes and sills associated with the Mesoproterozoic Midcontinent Rift near Thunder Bay,Ontario, Canada     

Pete Hollings  Mark Smyk  Larry M. Heaman  Henry Halls 《Precambrian Research》2010

The Midcontinent Rift (MCR) of North America comprises a series of basaltic sheets, flows and intrusive rocks emplaced in the Lake Superior region during the Mesoproterozoic. The mafic rocks preserved on the northern flank of Lake Superior represent the older portions of the rift sequence and offer insights into the early development of the rift. New geochronological, geochemical and paleomagnetic data are presented for the dikes and sills located in and south of Thunder Bay, Ontario. Three sill suites are recognized within the study area; an earlier, spatially restricted ultramafic unit termed the Riverdale sill, the predominant Logan sills and Nipigon sills in the north of the study area. In addition three dike sets are recognized, the north-east trending Pigeon River swarm, the north-west trending Cloud River dikes and the Mt. Mollie dike. The geochemical data demonstrate that the majority of sills south of Thunder Bay are of Logan affinity and distinct from those of broadly similar age in the Nipigon Embayment to the north. The Pigeon River dikes that intrude the sills are geochemically coherent but distinct from the Logan sills and could not be feeders to the sills. The new age of 1109.2 ± 4.2 Ma for the Cloud River dike and its R polarity are consistent with published magnetostratigraphy. The Mt. Mollie dike age (1109.3 ± 6.3 Ma) indicates that it is not coeval with the spatially associated Crystal Lake gabbro as previously thought. The complexity of the dike and sill suites on the northern flank of suggests that the early phases of rifting occurred in distinct and changing stress fields prior to the main extensional rifting preserved in younger rocks to the south. The geochemistry and geochronology of the intrusions suggest a long-lived and complex magmatic history for the Midcontinent Rift.  相似文献   

Diffusive fractionation of noble gases and helium isotopes during mantle melting     

Pete Burnard   《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2004,220(3-4):287-295

The large differences in He and Ar diffusivities in silicate minerals could result in fractionation of the He/Ar ratio during melting of the mantle, producing He/Ar ratios in the primary mantle melts that are higher than those of the bulk mantle. Modeling noble gas diffusion out of the bulk mantle into fast diffusion pathways (such as fractures or melt channels) suggests that significant (order of magnitude) He/Ar fractionation will occur if the fast diffusion channels are spaced several meters apart and the noble gas residence in these diffusion channels is of the order days to weeks. In addition, the 15% difference in ³He and ⁴He diffusivities could also produce isotopic fractionation between the melt and its solid source. Modeling the behavior of He and Ar during melting shows that small increases (few %) in ³He/⁴He should be correlated with larger variations (factor of 5) in ⁴He/⁴⁰Ar. However, in order to test this hypothesis the effects of subsequent He–Ar fractionation that occur during degassing have to be corrected. I describe a scheme that can separate He/Ar variations in the primary melt from overprinted fractionation during magmatic degassing. Using the degassing-corrected data, there is a correlation between the primary melt’s ⁴He/⁴⁰Ar and ³He/⁴He in mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORBs). The slope of the correlation is consistent with the models of preferential diffusion of ³He relative to ⁴He and of ⁴He relative to ⁴⁰Ar from the solid mantle into the melt. Diffusive fractionation of noble gases during melting of the mantle can also account for low ⁴He/⁴⁰Ar ratios commonly found in residual mantle xenoliths: preferential diffusion of He relative to Ar will produce some regions of the mantle with low ⁴He/⁴⁰Ar, the complement of the high ⁴He/⁴⁰Ar ratios in basalts. Diffusive fractionation cannot, however, account for differences between the He and Ne isotopic compositions of MORBs compared with ocean island basalts (OIBs); not only are the extremely high ³He/⁴He ratios of OIBs (up to 50 Ra) difficult to produce at reasonable mantle time and lengthscales, but also the Ne isotopic compositions of MORBs and OIBs do not lie on a single mass fractionation line, therefore cannot result from diffusive fractionation of a single mantle Ne source. If preferential diffusion of He from the solid mantle into primary melts is a significant process during generation of MORBs, then it is difficult to constrain the He concentration of the mantle: He concentrations in basalts and the He flux to the ocean essentially result from extraction of He from a larger (and unknown) volume of mantle than that that produced the basalts themselves. The He concentration of the mantle cannot be constrained until more accurate estimates of the diffusion contribution are available.  相似文献   

Announcements     

Pete J. Dunn 《Mineralium Deposita》1976,11(3):395-396

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Investigations of subsurface flow constructed wetlands and associated geomaterial resources in the Akumal and Reforma regions,Quintana Roo,Mexico     

Mark P. S. Krekeler  Pete Probst  Misha Samsonov  Cynthia M. Tselepis  William Bates  Lance E. Kearns  J. Barry Maynard 《Environmental Geology》2007,53(4):709-726

Subsurface flow constructed wetlands in the village of Akumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico were surveyed to determine the general status of the wetland systems and provide baseline information for long term monitoring and further study. Twenty subsurface flow wetlands were surveyed and common problems observed in the systems were overloading, poor plant cover, odor, and no secondary containment. Bulk mineral composition of aggregate from two subsurface flow constructed wetlands was determined to consist solely of calcite using bulk powder X-ray diffraction. Some soil structure is developed in the aggregate and aggregate levels in wetlands drop at an estimated rate between 3 and 10 cm/year for overloaded wetlands owing to dissolution. Mineral composition from fresh aggregate samples commonly is a mixture of calcite and aragonite. Trace amounts of Pb, Zn, Co, and Cr were observed in fresh aggregate. Coefficients of permeability (k) varied from 0.006 to 0.027 cm/s with an average values being 0.016 cm/s. Grain size analysis of fresh aggregate samples indicates there are unimodal and multimodal size distributions in the samples with modes in the coarse and fine sand being common. Investigations of other geologic media from the Reforma region indicate that a dolomite with minor amounts of Fe-oxide and palygorskite is abundant and may be a better aggregate source that the current materials used. A Ca-montmorillonite bed was identified in the Reforma region as well and this unit is suitable to serve as a clay liner to prevent leaks for new and existing wetland systems. These newly discovered geologic resources should aid in the improvement of subsurface flow constructed wetlands in the region. Although problems do exist in these wetlands with respect to design, these systems represent a successful implementation of constructed wetlands at a community level in developing regions.  相似文献   

Organochlorine and mecury concetrations in eggs of grey plovers (Pluvialis squatarola) breeding in the Lena Dlta, north-east Sibveria, 1997     

Klaus-Michael Exo  Pete H. Becker  Ute Sommer 《Polar research》2000,19(2):261-265

Seven eggs from four clutches of grey plovers ( Pluvialis squatarola ) breeding in the Lena Delta, Sakha Republic, Yakutia, in 1997 were analysed for persistent organochlorines and mercury. Contamination levels were low and within the same range as found in eggs from waders (Charadriiformes) breeding in north-west Europe. One exception was ∑HCH, averaging 99.2 ng g⁻¹ fresh egg mass, a level about ten times higher than in wader eggs from north-west Europe. β-HCH accounted for 98% of the total HCH concentration. There are indications that the pesticide levels may reflect former local use. ∑PCB level (57.0 ng g⁻¹, 62 congeners) and mercury concentration (68.7 ng g⁻¹) can be considered low.  相似文献   

Calibration of cosmogenic Cl production rates from Ca and K spallation in lava flows from Mt. Etna (38°N, Italy) and Payun Matru (36°S, Argentina)     

Irene Schimmelpfennig  Lucilla Benedetti  Raphaël Pik  Pete Burnard  Robert Finkel  Katja Ammon 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(10):2611-9

Published cosmogenic ³⁶Cl production rates from Ca and K spallation differ by almost a factor of 2. In this paper we determine production rates of ³⁶Cl from Ca and K in samples of known age containing little Cl. Ca-rich plagioclases and K-feldspars were separated from a total of 13 samples collected on the surfaces of four basaltic lava flows at Mt. Etna (38°N, Italy) and from a trachyte lava flow at Payun Matru volcano (36°S, Argentina). Eruption ages, determined by independent methods, range between 0.4 and 32 ka. Sample site elevations range between 500 and 2500 m. Corresponding scaling factors were calculated using five different published scaling models, four of which consider paleo-geomagnetic field variations integrated over the exposure durations. The resulting five data sets were then analyzed using a Bayesian statistical model that incorporates the major inherent uncertainties in a consistent way. Spallation production rates from Ca and K, considering all major uncertainties, are 42.2 ± 4.8 atoms ³⁶Cl (g Ca)⁻¹ a⁻¹ and 124.9 ± 8.1 atoms ³⁶Cl (g K)⁻¹ a⁻¹ normalized to sea level and high latitude using the scaling method of Stone (2000). Scaling models that account for paleo-geomagnetic intensity changes yield very similar mean values (at most +4%). If the uncertainties in the independent ages are neglected in the Bayesian model, the calculated element specific production rates would be about 12% higher. Our results are in agreement with previous production rate estimations both for Ca and K if only low Cl (i.e. ?20 ppm) samples are considered.  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on global agriculture   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alvaro Calzadilla  Katrin Rehdanz  Richard Betts  Pete Falloon  Andy Wiltshire  Richard S. J. Tol 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):357-374

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.  相似文献