Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献   

Separation of PP- and PS-wave reflected seismic data using two-dimensional finite offset common-reflection-surface traveltime approximation     

Raphael Di Carlo Silva dos Santos  João Carlos Ribeiro Cruz  Manuel de Jesus dos Santos Costa 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(7):2046-2063

Recently, the interest in PS-converted waves has increased for several applications, such as sub-basalt layer imaging, impedance estimates and amplitude-versus-offset analysis. In this study, we consider the problem of separation of PP- and PS-waves from pre-stacked multicomponent seismic data in two-dimensional isotropic medium. We aim to demonstrate that the finite-offset common-reflection-surface traveltime approximation is a good alternative for separating PP- and PS-converted waves in common-offset and common shot configurations by considering a two-dimensional isotropic medium. The five parameters of the finite-offset common-reflection-surface are firstly estimated through the inversion methodology called very fast simulated annealing, which estimates all parameters simultaneously. Next, the emergence angle, one of the inverted parameters, is used to build an analytical separation function of PP and PS reflection separation based on the wave polarization equations. Once the PP- and PS-converted waves were separated, the sections are stacked to increase the signal-to-noise ratio using the special curves derived from finite-offset common-reflection-surface approximation. We applied this methodology to a synthetic dataset from simple-layered to complex-structured media. The numerical results showed that the inverted parameters of the finite offset common-reflection-surface and the separation function yield good results for separating PP- and PS-converted waves in noisy common-offset and common shot gathers.  相似文献   

Estimating free parameters in 2D inversion: example of gravity inversion in a rifted basement     

João B.C. Silva  Darcicléa F. Santos  Daniele P. Monteiro 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(3):1057-1071

We advance a principle directed to assigning numerical values to free parameters usually present in inversion methods. It may be formulated as: ‘Optimum estimates of free parameters in an inversion procedure must lead, in tests using synthetic data, to solutions whose geometrical expression reflects the main qualitative or semiquantitative geological characteristic of the study area.’ To this end, the interpreter should (i) specify a typical anomalous source geometry which incorporates the most relevant geological information for the study area, (ii) compute the corresponding gravity anomaly and (iii) invert the anomaly for the source geometry finding the numerical values of the free parameters that lead to a solution closest to the typical source. Application of the above methodology to synthetic and real data from the basement relief of a rift basin has asserted its efficacy.  相似文献   

Numerical homogenization-based seismic assessment of an English-bond masonry prototype: Structural level application     

Luís C. Silva  Paulo B. Lourenço  Gabriele Milani 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(9):841-862

A multiscale strategy is evaluated at a structural level for the analysis of unreinforced masonry structures. The mechanical characterization of the masonry is deduced from homogenization-based micro-scale finite element (FE) models. The derived data are here employed at a structural level via a discrete FE model. The discrete FE model is composed of quadrilateral rigid plates interconnected through vertical and horizontal interfaces. On the interfaces, between adjoining discrete elements, a model that accounts for the in- and out-of-plane behavior of masonry, with damage and plasticity, is adopted. Such interfaces represent the material pre- and post-peak regimes, its orthotropy, and, depending on the micro-model assumed, account by three-dimensional shear effects that are especially important for multi-leaf walls and complex regular textures. The discrete model has been implemented in an advanced structural analysis software where powerful built-in features as the arc-length method, line-search algorithm, and implicit or explicit solver schemes are available. The multi-scale model is applied for the dynamic study of a small English-bond masonry house prototype subjected to a series of consecutive earthquake records. Detailed comparisons between the experimental and numerical data are presented, including the results obtained through a continuous total strain rotating crack model. Quasi-static and dynamic analyses are conducted. Results demonstrate that when enough experimental information is available on the masonry components under tension, shear, and compression regimes, the approach predicts well the seismic structural response in terms of time-history displacements, seismic capacity, and damage patterns. The required computational cost (CPU time) is very attractive.  相似文献   

Soil contamination by metals with high ecological risk in urban and rural areas     

F. B. V. da Silva  C. W. A. do Nascimento  P. R. M. Araújo  F. L. da Silva  L. H. V. Lima 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(3):553-562

Industrial development, intensive agriculture and fast urbanization have caused the metal contents of soils to increase to many times the allowable limits. To assess this impact on urban and rural soils, we quantified the Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni and Zn contents of 258 soil samples from the Recife metropolitan region (RMR). The objectives of the study were to estimate the probability of ecological risk, to determine the spatial pattern of the metals’ accumulation in the soil and to identify potential sources for the metals using a multivariate geostatistical approach. Mean concentrations of Zn, Cr, Pb, Cu, Ni and Cd in soils were 65.2, 17.9, 16.5, 12.8, 6.3 and 1.5 mg kg^?1, respectively. The results demonstrated that the Cd was anthropogenic in origin, the Cr and Ni were lithogenic (natural) in origin and the Cu, Pb and Zn were mixed in origin. Cd contaminated 91% of the samples; the median content of Cd (1.4 mg kg^?1) was three times the quality reference value for soil. The Cd contents of sugarcane fields exceeded the allowable limit (3.0 mg kg^?1) for agricultural areas. The spatial variability of the metals in the RMR showed that metallurgy, cement production, vehicle exhaust and vehicular traffic were the main sources of metals in urban areas, while phosphate-based fertilizers were the main sources in rural areas. More than 80% of the metropolitan region surveyed in the study was at moderate to high ecological risk.  相似文献   

Supportive elements to the decision-making process in the emergency planning of the Angra dos Reis Nuclear Power Complex,Brazil     

Corbiniano Silva  Luiz Claudio Gomes Pimentel  Luiz Landau  Paulo Fernando Lavalle Heilbron Filho  Fabiana Guimarães Resende Gobbo  Pryscila de Jesus de Sousa 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(3):133

Accidents in nuclear power plants are problems of great complexity, mainly due to their consequences, such as the population evacuation from the enterprise influence area. The decision-making and emergency plans must be well articulated and require good local geographic space knowledge and the interactions of their environments. This study is a contribution to the emergency plans for the Almirante Álvaro Alberto Nuclear Power Plant, currently the only nuclear complex in Brazil, located in Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro. The study confirmed the region’s main geoenvironmental aspects as winds and rainfall, landslides and population density were evaluated as important elements in the local emergency process. Their integrated analysis supported scenario identification and critical regional points and highlighted population evacuation escape routes. These important results characterized the support to local emergency management actions and guidelines. Furthermore, the geographic information systems was configured as an integrated spatial and temporal analysis platform to associate meteorological, geological/geomorphological and socio-economic data, playing a key role to support the evacuation planning in the event of nuclear power plant accidents.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of the elastic anisotropy and seismic reflection amplitude of the Eagle Ford Shale to the presence of kerogen          下载免费PDF全文

Colin M. Sayers  Shiguang Guo  Josimar Silva 《Geophysical Prospecting》2015,63(1):151-165

The Eagle Ford Shale of Central and South Texas is currently of great interest for oil and gas exploration and production. Laboratory studies show that the Eagle Ford Shale is anisotropic, with a correlation between anisotropy and total organic carbon. Organic materials are usually more compliant than other minerals present in organic‐rich shales, and their shapes and distribution are usually anisotropic. This makes organic materials an important source of anisotropy in organic‐rich shales. Neglecting shale anisotropy may lead to incorrect estimates of rock and fluid properties derived from inversion of amplitude versus offset seismic data. Organic materials have a significant effect on the PP and PS reflection amplitudes from the Austin Chalk/Upper Eagle Ford interface, the Upper Eagle Ford/Lower Eagle Ford interface, and the Lower Eagle Ford/Buda Limestone interface. The higher kerogen content of the Lower Eagle Ford compared with that of the Upper Eagle Ford leads to a negative PP reflection amplitude that dims with offset, whereas the PS reflection coefficient increases in magnitude with increasing offset. The PP and PS reflection coefficients at the Austin Chalk/Upper Eagle Ford interface, the Upper Eagle Ford/Lower Eagle Ford interface, and the Lower Eagle Ford/Buda Limestone interface all increase in magnitude with increasing volume fraction of kerogen.  相似文献   

Mass rig system for shaking table tests of slender columns          下载免费PDF全文

Pedro F. Silva  Arash Sangtarashha  Rigoberto Burgueño 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(15):2717-2736

A new mass rig system is proposed to minimize the deficiencies in current shaking table testing setups. This is accomplished by placing the inertial mass on a convex path designed to impose P‐Delta demands on slender cantilever columns. The design and performance of the mass rig system, and the principles used in deriving the equations of motion and their analytical validation against results obtained from shaking table tests, are presented. Formulation of the governing equations of motion was based on Lagrangian mechanics and solved using an implicit linear acceleration method with an adaptive time step formulation. Friction developed in the sliding system was also incorporated in the equations of motion. Experimental results validated the accuracy in the derivation and solution of the equations of motion. Validated by analytical and experimental results, P‐Delta effects were found to increase the displacement demands on slender columns in the low‐frequency range of acceleration input, while in the high‐frequency range P‐Delta effects led to no increase and in some cases even a reduction in displacement demands. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Organohalogen contaminants and trace metals in North-East Atlantic porbeagle shark (Lamna nasus)     

Victoria A. Bendall  Jonathan L. BarberAlexandra Papachlimitzou  Thi BolamLee Warford  Stuart J. HetheringtonJoana F. Silva  Sophy R. McCullySara Losada  Thomas MaesJim R. Ellis  Robin J. Law 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014

The North-East Atlantic porbeagle (Lamna nasus) population has declined dramatically over the last few decades and is currently classified as ‘Critically Endangered’. As long-lived, apex predators, they may be vulnerable to bioaccumulation of contaminants. In this study organohalogen compounds and trace elements were analysed in 12 specimens caught as incidental bycatch in commercial gillnet fisheries in the Celtic Sea in 2011. Levels of organohalogen contaminants were low or undetectable (summed CB and BDE concentrations 0.04–0.85 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight). A notably high Cd concentration (7.2 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight) was observed in one mature male, whereas the range observed in the other samples was much lower (0.04–0.26 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight). Hg and Pb concentrations were detected only in single animals, at 0.34 and 0.08 mg kg⁻¹ wet weight, respectively. These contaminant levels were low in comparison to other published studies for shark species.  相似文献   

Investigating the molecular systematic relationships amongst selected Plesionika (Decapoda: Pandalidae) from the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea     

Joana M da Silva  Antonina dos Santos  Marina R Cunha  Filipe O Costa  Simon Creer  Gary R Carvalho 《Marine Ecology》2013,34(2):157-170

Despite the high number of species and ecological diversity of pandalid shrimps, there has been no previous attempt to resolve evolutionary relationships of several genera using molecular tools. Although mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase I (COI) is widely used in barcoding studies to delimit species boundaries, additional insights into phylogenetic affinities can be obtained, especially when used in combination with data from additional genes. The knowledge of molecular diversity is essential to understand phylogenetic relationships and will help systematic clarifications. Based on partial fragments of the 16S and COI genes, we have focused specifically on addressing the systematic relationships of the economically and ecologically important shrimp genus Plesionika within a framework of five genera from within the Pandalidae. Our results showed that species within Plesionika are substantially divergent when compared with other genera, exhibiting the highest average nucleotide divergence, with 0.1123 and 0.0846 in COI and 16S genes, respectively. In addition, sequence divergence was found to vary greatly within the genus Plesionika (COI/16S): 0.0247/0.0016 between Plesionika antigai and Plesionika heterocarpus and 0.1616/0.098 between Plesionika heterocarpus and Plesionika edwardsii. We did not find amino acid sequence divergence between P. heterocarpus and P. antigai compared with P. heterocarpus and P. edwardsii (8.10%, K2P distance). Three species of Plesionika (P. antigai, P. heterocarpus and Plesionika scopifera) appear well separated from other Plesionika species in both maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses. The present study confirms the utility of COI over 16S as a genetic marker to resolve relationships between different species of Plesionika from the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, in addition to species delimitation. The findings highlight the need to further review paraphyly within Plesionika in an attempt to recognize a concordance in the evolutionary history of Plesionika with major ecological and geological events.  相似文献