Rain on snow induced urban floods in cold maritime climate: Risk,indicators and trends     

Hrund Ólöf Andradóttir  Anna Rut Arnardóttir  Tarek Zaqout 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14298

Urban floods pose a societal and economical risk. This study evaluated the risk and hydro-meteorological conditions that cause pluvial flooding in coastal cities in a cold climate. Twenty years of insurance claims data and up to 97 years of meteorological data were analysed for Reykjavík, Iceland (64.15°N; <100 m above sea level). One third of the city's wastewater collection system is combined, and pipe grades vary from 0.5% to 10%. Results highlight semi-intensive rain (<7 mm/h; ≤3 year return period) in conjunction with snow and frozen ground as the main cause for urban flood risk in a climate which undergoes frequent snow and frost cycles (avg. 13 and 19 per season, respectively). Floods in winter were more common, more severe and affected a greater number of neighbourhoods than during summer. High runoff volumes together with debris remobilized with high winds challenged the capacity of wastewater systems regardless of their age or type (combined vs. separate). The two key determinants for the number of insurance claims were antecedent frost depth and total precipitation volume per event. Two pluvial regimes were particularly problematic: long duration (13–25 h), late peaking rain on snow (RoS), where snowmelt enhanced the runoff intensity, elongated and connected independent rainfall into a singular, more voluminous (20–76 mm) event; shorter duration (7–9 h), more intensive precipitation that evolved from snow to rain. Closely timed RoS and cooling were believed to trigger frost formation. A positive trend was detected in the average seasonal snow depth and volume of rain and snowmelt during RoS events. More emphasis, therefore, needs to be placed on designing and operating urban drainage infrastructure with regard to RoS co-acting with frozen ground. Furthermore, more detailed, routine monitoring of snow and soil conditions is important to predict RoS flood events.  相似文献   

Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies     

Asbjørn Aaheim  Helene Amundsen  Therese Dokken  Taoyuan Wei 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):959-968

This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries.  相似文献   

Full-Scale Spectrum of Boundary-Layer Winds   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Xiaoli G. Larsén  Søren E. Larsen  Erik L. Petersen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2016,159(2):349-371

  相似文献   

External controls on the distribution,fabrics and mineralization of modern microbial mats in a coastal hypersaline lagoon,Cayo Coco (Cuba)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Anthony Bouton  Emmanuelle Vennin  Aurélie Pace  Raphaël Bourillot  Christophe Dupraz  Christophe Thomazo  Arnaud Brayard  Guy Désaubliaux  Pieter T. Visscher 《Sedimentology》2016,63(4):972-1016

Active, carbonate‐mineralizing microbial mats flourish in a tropical, highly evaporative, marine‐fed lagoonal network to the south of Cayo Coco Island (Cuba). Hypersaline conditions support the development of a complex sedimentary microbial ecosystem with diverse morphologies, a variable intensity of mineralization and a potential for preservation. In this study, the role of intrinsic (i.e. microbial) and extrinsic (i.e. physicochemical) controls on microbial mat development, mineralization and preservation was investigated. The network consists of lagoons, forming in the interdune depressions of a Pleistocene aeolian substratum; they developed due to a progressive increase in sea‐level since the Holocene. The hydrological budget in the Cayo Coco lagoonal network changes from west to east, increasing the salinity. This change progressively excludes grazers and increases the saturation index of carbonate minerals, favouring the development and mineralization of microbial mats in the easternmost lagoons. Detailed mapping of the easternmost lagoon shows four zones with different flooding regimes. The microbial activity in the mats was recorded using light–dark shifts in conjunction with microelectrode O₂ and HS^? profiles. High rates of O₂ production and consumption, in addition to substantial amounts of exopolymeric substances, are indicative of a potentially strong intrinsic control on mineralization. Seasonal, climate‐driven water fluctuations are key for mat development, mineralization, morphology and distribution. Microbial mats show no mineralization in the permanently submersed zone, and moderate mineralization in zones with alternating immersion and exposure. It is suggested that mineralization is also driven by water‐level fluctuations and evaporation. Mineralized mats are laminated and consist of alternating trapping and binding of grains and microbially induced magnesium calcite and dolomite precipitation. The macrofabrics of the mats evolve from early colonizing Flat mats to complex Cerebroid or Terrace structures. The macrofabrics are influenced by the hydrodynamic regime: wind‐driven waves inducing relief terraces in windward areas and flat morphologies on the leeward side of the lagoon. Other external drivers include: (i) storm events that either promote (for example, by bioclasts covering) or prevent (for example, by causing erosion) microbial mat preservation; and (ii) subsurface degassing, through mangrove roots and desiccation cracks covered by Flat mats (i.e. forming Hemispheroids and Cerebroidal structures). These findings provide in‐depth insights into understanding fossil microbialite morphologies that formed in lagoonal settings.  相似文献   

Politics of technology in the informal governance of destructive fishing in Spermonde,Indonesia     

Adam Grydehøj  Nurliah Nurdin 《GeoJournal》2016,81(2):281-292

Technology has politics and plays a role in societal governance. This article explores the fishing community of Karanrang island (Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia) to consider how fishing technologies reinforce existing power structures in the local informal governance system. Informal governance actors deploy the politics of technology in order to manage a socially problematic and environmentally destructive fishing economy. In the punggawa-sawi system of patron-client relationships, fishers are economically dependent on patrons, who supply them with fishing technologies like boats, bombs, and cyanide. The patrons themselves are embedded in a complex governance network, encompassing corrupt police and officials, importers, and live food fish traders. The politics of technology contribute to maintaining the local informal governance system of patron-client relationships. This paper draws upon theories from science and technology studies and network governance to argue that although patron-client relationships are problematic in themselves, the politics of technology further maintain power imbalances.  相似文献   

Analysis of extreme rainfall in the Ebre Observatory (Spain)     

Núria Pérez-Zanón  M. Carmen Casas-Castillo  Raúl Rodríguez-Solà  Juan Carlos Peña  Anna Rius  J. Germán Solé  Ángel Redaño 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(3-4):935-944

  相似文献   

Multi-species chemical data assimilation with the Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: system description and verification     

Jeremy D. Silver  Jesper H. Christensen  Michael Kahnert  Lennart Robertson  Peter J. Rayner  Jørgen Brandt 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2016,73(3):261-302

Satellite retrievals of atmospheric composition provide a wealth of data on a global scale. These complement results from atmospheric chemistry-transport models (CTMs), and can be combined using data assimilation. We present two assimilation schemes coupled to the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), a three-dimensional, off-line CTM with full photochemistry: a variant on the ensemble Kalman filter and the three-dimensional variational scheme. The aim of this paper is to describe the two schemes and present an initial assessment of their impacts on model skill. Retrievals of multiple atmospheric trace gases are assimilated, namely: NO₂ tropospheric column densities, CH₄ total column densities, and partial column concentrations of O₃, CO and CH₄; these data are retrieved from four satellite sensors. Data for each species are assimilated independently of one another, and other species are only adjusted indirectly via the model’s chemistry and dynamics. Assimilation results are compared with measurements from surface monitoring stations and other satellite retrievals, and preliminary validation results are presented.Reference simulations (without assimilation) grossly underestimate surface CO concentrations, and both assimilation schemes eliminate this large and systematic model bias. The assimilation improves the spatial correlation of modelled CO with surface observations, and improves the spatial correlation between forecasts and retrievals for CO, NO₂ and O₃. Results for CH₄ show a loss of skill due to a mismatch in model bias between two assimilated CH₄ data-sets. Finally, we discuss differences in methodology and results between this paper and a recent study on multi-species chemical data assimilation. Joint optimisation of initial conditions and emission rates offers a promising direction for improving modelled boundary-layer concentrations.  相似文献   

Free allocation in the 3rd EU ETS period: assessing two manufacturing sectors     

Christian Stenqvist  Max Åhman 《Climate Policy》2016,16(2):125-144

This article provides an analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the harmonized benchmark-based allocation procedures by comparing two energy-intensive sectors with activities in three Member States. These sectors include the cement industry (CEI) and the pulp and paper industry (PPI) in the UK, Sweden, and France. Our results show that the new procedures are better suited for the more homogeneous CEI, in which the outcome of stricter allocation of emissions allowances is consistent between Member States. For the more heterogeneous PPI – in terms of its product portfolios, technical infrastructures, and fuel mixes – the allocation procedures lead to diverse outcomes. It is the lack of product benchmark curves, and the alternative use of benchmark values that are biased towards a fossil fuel-mix and are based on specific energy use rather than emission intensity, which leads to allocations to the PPI that do not represent the average performance of the top 10% of GHG-efficient installations. Another matter is that grandfathering is still present via the historically based production volumes. How to deal with structural change and provisions regarding capacity reductions and partial cessation is an issue that is highly relevant for the PPI but less so for the CEI.

Policy relevance

After an unprecedented amount of consultation with industrial associations and other stakeholders, a harmonized benchmark-based allocation methodology was introduced in the third trading period of the EU ETS. Establishing a reliable and robust benchmark methodology for free allocation that shields against high direct carbon costs, is perceived as fair and politically acceptable, and still incentivizes firms to take action, is a significant challenge. This article contributes to a deeper understanding of the challenges in effectively applying harmonized rules in industrial sectors that are heterogeneous. This is essential for the debate on structural reformation of the EU ETS, and for sharing experiences with other emerging emissions trading systems in the world that also consider benchmark methodologies.  相似文献   

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa     

Lise Byskov Herslund  Fatemeh Jalayer  Nathalie Jean-Baptiste  Gertrud Jørgensen  Sigrun Kabisch  Wilbard Kombe  Sarah Lindley  Patrik Karlsson Nyed  Stephan Pauleit  Andreas Printz  Trond Vedeld 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):149-172

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.  相似文献   

An Alternative Protocol for Single Zircon Dissolution with Application to (U‐Th‐Sm)/He Thermochronometry          下载免费PDF全文

Bouchaïb Tibari  Arnaud Vacherat  Martin Stab  Raphaël Pik  Delphine Yeghicheyan  Pascal Hild 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(3):365-375

Zircon (U‐Th‐Sm)/He (ZHe) thermochronometry is a powerful tool that has been widely used in geology to constrain the exhumation histories of orogens. In this study, we present an alternative protocol for dissolving zircon grains for determination of parent nuclides. This new alkali fusion procedure developed at the SARM (Service d'Analyse des Roches et des Minéraux) in Nancy, France, is fast (requiring only 2 d, including cleaning steps) and offers several advantages over conventional methods by avoiding: (i) use of HF pressure dissolution and (ii) complete removing of grains from the metal microvials. After dissolution, U, Th and Sm were measured using an ICP‐MS. We tested the new procedure on two different ZHe reference materials, the Fish Canyon Tuff and Buluk Tuff; these provided precision values for ZHe‐age estimations of 9 and 6% (1s), respectively. In addition, using this method, zircons from the Buluk Tuff are shown to be chemically more homogenous and more suitable for assessing the uncertainty of the entire integrated procedure.  相似文献