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91.
An inductive algorithm is proposed to solve Lagrange's implicit equation when its right hand member is a power series in the small parameter.  相似文献   
92.
Inverse problem in hydrogeology   总被引:14,自引:6,他引:8  
The state of the groundwater inverse problem is synthesized. Emphasis is placed on aquifer characterization, where modelers have to deal with conceptual model uncertainty (notably spatial and temporal variability), scale dependence, many types of unknown parameters (transmissivity, recharge, boundary conditions, etc.), nonlinearity, and often low sensitivity of state variables (typically heads and concentrations) to aquifer properties. Because of these difficulties, calibration cannot be separated from the modeling process, as it is sometimes done in other fields. Instead, it should be viewed as one step in the process of understanding aquifer behavior. In fact, it is shown that actual parameter estimation methods do not differ from each other in the essence, though they may differ in the computational details. It is argued that there is ample room for improvement in groundwater inversion: development of user-friendly codes, accommodation of variability through geostatistics, incorporation of geological information and different types of data (temperature, occurrence and concentration of isotopes, age, etc.), proper accounting of uncertainty, etc. Despite this, even with existing codes, automatic calibration facilitates enormously the task of modeling. Therefore, it is contended that its use should become standard practice.
Resumen Se sintetiza el estado del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas. El énfasis se ubica en la caracterización de acuíferos, donde los modeladores tienen que enfrentar la incertidumbre del modelo conceptual (principalmente variabilidad temporal y espacial), dependencia de escala, muchos tipos de parámetros desconocidos (transmisividad, recarga, condiciones limitantes, etc), no linealidad, y frecuentemente baja sensibilidad de variables de estado (típicamente presiones y concentraciones) a las propiedades del acuífero. Debido a estas dificultades, no puede separarse la calibración de los procesos de modelado, como frecuentemente se hace en otros campos. En su lugar, debe de visualizarse como un paso en el proceso de entendimiento del comportamiento del acuífero. En realidad, se muestra que los métodos reales de estimación de parámetros no difieren uno del otro en lo esencial, aunque sí pueden diferir en los detalles computacionales. Se discute que existe amplio espacio para la mejora del problema inverso en aguas subterráneas: desarrollo de códigos amigables al usuario, acomodamiento de variabilidad a través de geoestadística, incorporación de información geológica y diferentes tipos de datos (temperatura, presencia y concentración de isótopos, edad, etc), explicación apropiada de incertidumbre, etc. A pesar de esto, aún con los códigos existentes, la calibración automática facilita enormemente la tarea de modelado. Por lo tanto, se sostiene que su uso debería de convertirse en práctica standard.

Résumé Létat du problème inverse des eaux souterraines est synthétisé. Laccent est placé sur la caractérisation de laquifère, où les modélisateurs doivent jouer avec lincertitude des modèles conceptuels (notamment la variabilité spatiale et temporelle), les facteurs déchelle, plusieurs inconnues sur différents paramètres (transmissivité, recharge, conditions aux limites, etc.), la non linéarité, et souvent la sensibilité de plusieurs variables détat (charges hydrauliques, concentrations) des propriétés de laquifère. A cause de ces difficultés, le calibrage ne peut être séparé du processus de modélisation, comme cest le cas dans dautres cas de figure. Par ailleurs, il peut être vu comme une des étapes dans le processus de détermination du comportement de laquifère. Il est montré que les méthodes dévaluation des paramètres actuels ne diffèrent pas si ce nest dans les détails des calculs informatiques. Il est montré quil existe une large panoplie de techniques d ‹inversion : codes de calcul utilisables par tout-un-chacun, accommodation de la variabilité via la géostatistique, incorporation dinformations géologiques et de différents types de données (température, occurrence, concentration en isotopes, âge, etc.), détermination de lincertitude. Vu ces développements, la calibration automatique facilite énormément la modélisation. Par ailleurs, il est souhaitable que son utilisation devienne une pratique standardisée.
  相似文献   
93.
Approximations in the normL 1 by Chebyshev polynomials are generated to represent astronomical ephemerides over large intervals of time.  相似文献   
94.
Characterization of Compass M-1 signals   总被引:7,自引:4,他引:3  
An analysis of observations from China’s first medium earth orbit satellite Compass M-1 is presented, with main focus on the first orbit and clock solution for this satellite. The orbit is computed from laser ranging measurements. Based on this orbit solution, the apparent clock offset is estimated using measurements from two GNSS receivers, which allow Compass tracking. The analysis of the clock solutions reveals unexpectedly high dynamics in the pseudorange and carrier-phase observations. Furthermore, carrier-to-noise density ratio, pseudorange noise, and multipath are analyzed and compared to GPS and GIOVE. The results of the clock analysis motivate further research on the signals of the geostationary satellites of the Compass constellation.  相似文献   
95.
An upgraded version of the Eta model   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.  相似文献   
96.
A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.  相似文献   
97.
It is desirable to design proxy investigations that target regions where properties reconstructed from calibrated parameters potentially carry high-fidelity information concerning changes in large-scale climate systems. Numerical climate models can play an important role in this task, producing simulations that can be analyzed to produce spatial “fingerprints” of the expected response of various properties under a variety of different scenarios. We will introduce a new method of fingerprinting the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that not only provides information concerning the sensitivity of the response at a given location to changes in the large-scale system, but also quantifies the linearity, monotonicity and symmetry of the response. In this way, locations that show high sensitivities to changes in the AMOC, but that exhibit, for example, strongly nonlinear behavior can be avoided during proxy investigations. To demonstrate the proposed approach we will use the example of the response of seawater temperatures to changes in the strength of the AMOC. We present results from an earth-system climate model which has been perturbed with an idealized freshwater forcing scenario in order to reduce the strength of the AMOC in a systematic manner. The seawater temperature anomalies that result from the freshwater forcing are quantified in terms of their sensitivity to the AMOC strength in addition to the linearity and monotonicity of their response. A first-order reversal curve (FORC) approach is employed to investigate and quantify the irreversibility of the temperature response to a slowing and recovering AMOC. Thus, FORCs allow the identification of areas that are unsuitable for proxy reconstructions because their temperature versus AMOC relationship lacks symmetry.  相似文献   
98.
Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3  
The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.  相似文献   
99.
This work analyzes the consequences of climate change in the distribution of the Mediterranean high-mountain vegetation. A study area was chosen at the Sierra de Guadarrama, in the center of the Iberian Peninsula (1,795 to 2,374 m asl). Climate change was analyzed from the record of 18 variables regarding temperature, rainfall and snowfall over the period 1951–2000. The permanence of snow cover (1996–2004), landforms stability and vegetation distribution in 5 years (1956, 1972, 1984, 1991 and 1998) were all analyzed. The Nival Correlation Level of the different vegetation classes was determined through their spatial and/or temporal relationship with several climatologic variables, snow cover duration and landforms. In order to quantify trends and major change processes, areas and percent changes were calculated, as well as Mean Annual Transformation Indices and Transition Matrices. The findings reveal that in the first part of the study period (up to the first half of the 1970s) the temperature rise in the mid-winter months caused the reduction of some classes of nival vegetation, while others expanded, favored by high rainfall, decrease in both maximum temperatures and summer aridity, and longer snow cover duration. The second part of the study period was characterized by the consolidation of the increase in all thermal variables, along with an important reduction in rainfall volume and snow cover duration. As a result, herbaceous plants, which are highly correlated with a long snow permanence and abundance of melting water, have been replaced by leguminous shrubs which grow away from the influence of snow, and which are steadily becoming denser.  相似文献   
100.
Long-term experimental watershed studies have significantly influenced our global understanding of hydrological processes. The discovery and characterization of how stream water quantity and quality respond to a changing environment (e.g. land-use change, acidic deposition) has only been possible due to the establishment of catchments devoted to long-term study. One such catchment is the Fernow Experimental Forest (FEF) located in the headwaters of the Appalachian Mountains in West Virginia, a region that provides essential freshwater ecosystem services to eastern and mid-western United States communities. Established in 1934, the FEF is among the earliest experimental watershed studies in the Eastern United States that continues to address emergent challenges to forest ecosystems, including climate change and other threats to forest health. This data note describes available data and presents some findings from more than 50 years of hydrologic research at the FEF. During the first few decades, research at the FEF focused on the relationship between forest management and hydrological processes—especially those related to the overall water balance. Later, research included the examination of interactions between hydrology and soil erosion, biogeochemistry, N-saturation, and acid deposition. Hydro-climatologic and water quality datasets from long-term measurements and data from short-duration studies are publicly available to provide new insights and foster collaborations that will continue to advance our understanding of hydrology in forested headwater catchments. As a result of its rich history of research and abundance of long-term data, the FEF is positioned to continue to advance understanding of forest ecosystems in a time of unprecedented change.  相似文献   
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