Real-time genetic spatial optimization to improve forest fire spread forecasting in high-performance computing environments     

Tomàs Artés  Andrés Cencerrado  Ana Cortés  Tomàs Margalef 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(3):594-611

Abstract

Forest fires are a kind of natural hazard with a high number of occurrences in southern European countries. To avoid major damages and to improve forest fire management, one can use forest fire spread simulators to predict fire behavior. When providing forest fire predictions, there are two main considerations: accuracy and computation time. In the context of natural hazards simulation, it is well known that part of the final forecast error comes from uncertainty in the input data. These data typically consist of a set of GIS files, which should be appropriately conflated. For this reason, several input data calibration methods have been developed by the scientific community. In this work, the Two-Stage calibration methodology, which has been shown to provide good results, is used. This calibration strategy is computationally intensive and time-consuming because it uses a Genetic Algorithm as a solution. Taking into account the aspect of urgency in forest fire spread prediction, it is necessary to maintain a balance between accuracy and the time needed to calibrate the input parameters. In order to take advantage of this technique, one must deal with the problem that some of the obtained solutions are impractical, since they involve simulation times that are too long, preventing the prediction system from being deployed at an operational level. A new method which finds the minimum resolution reduction for such long simulations, keeping accuracy loss to a known interval, is proposed. The proposed improvement is based on a time-aware core allocation policy that enables real-time forest fire spread forecasting. The final prediction system is a cyberinfrastructure, which enables forest fire spread prediction at real time.  相似文献   

Submersible observations of Equatorial Atlantic mantle: The St. Paul Fracture Zone region     

Hekinian  R.  Juteau  T.  Gràcia  E.  Sichler  B.  Sichel  S.  Udintsev  G.  Apprioual  R.  Ligi  M. 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2000,21(6):529-560

The St. Paul F.Z. is a large structural domain made up of multiple transform faults interrupted by several Intra-Transform Ridge (ITR) spreading segments. Two regions were studied in details by submersible: (1) The ITR short (<20 km in length) segment near 0° 37N–25° 27W and 1° N–27° 42W and (2) The St. Peter and St. Paul's Rocks (SPPR) massif located at 29° 25W (¡3700 m depth). (1) The short ITR segments consist of a magma starved rift valley with recent volcanic activities at 4700 m depth. A geological profile made along the rift valley wall showed localized volcanics (basalts and dykes) which are believed to overlay and intrude the ultramafics. The geological setting and the high ultramafic/volcanic ratio suggest an extremely low magmatic supply and crustal-mantle uplift during lithospheric stretching and denudation. (2) The St. Peter and St. Paul's Rocks (SPPR) massif consists of a sigmoidal ridge within the active transform zone. The SPPR is divided into two different geological domains called the North and the South Ridges. The North Ridge consists of strongly tectonized fault scarps composed of banded and mylonitized peridotite, sporadic gabbros (3900–2500 m) and metabasalts (2700–1700 m). The South Ridge is less tectonized with undeformed, serpentinized spinel lherzolite (2000–1400 m) and basalts. Extensional motion and denudation accompanied by diapirism affected the South Ridge within a transform domain. Instead, the North Ridge was formed during an important strike-slip and faulting motion resulting in the uplifted portion of the St. Paul F.Z. transverse ridge. There is a regional compositional variation of the volcanics where E-MORBs and alkali basalts are produced on the SPPR massif and are comparable to the adjacent northern segments of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. On the other hand, N and T- MORBs collected from the eastern part of the St. Paul F.Z. (25° 27W IRT) are similar to the volcanics from the southern segments of the MAR. The peridotites exposed in these provinces (SPPR and ITR) are similar in their REE and trace element distribution. Different degrees (3–15%) of partial melting of a mixed composite mantle consisting of spinel and amphibole bearing lherzolite veined with 5–40% clinopyroxenite gave rise to the observed MORBs and alkali basalts.  相似文献   

Odyssey: a solar system mission     

B. Christophe  P. H. Andersen  J. D. Anderson  S. Asmar  Ph. Bério  O. Bertolami  R. Bingham  F. Bondu  Ph. Bouyer  S. Bremer  J.-M. Courty  H. Dittus  B. Foulon  P. Gil  U. Johann  J. F. Jordan  B. Kent  C. Lämmerzahl  A. Lévy  G. Métris  O. Olsen  J. Pàramos  J. D. Prestage  S. V. Progrebenko  E. Rasel  A. Rathke  S. Reynaud  B. Rievers  E. Samain  T. J. Sumner  S. Theil  P. Touboul  S. Turyshev  P. Vrancken  P. Wolf  N. Yu 《Experimental Astronomy》2009,23(2):529-547

The Solar System Odyssey mission uses modern-day high-precision experimental techniques to test the laws of fundamental physics which determine dynamics in the solar system. It could lead to major discoveries by using demonstrated technologies and could be flown within the Cosmic Vision time frame. The mission proposes to perform a set of precision gravitation experiments from the vicinity of Earth to the outer Solar System. Its scientific objectives can be summarized as follows: (1) test of the gravity force law in the Solar System up to and beyond the orbit of Saturn; (2) precise investigation of navigation anomalies at the fly-bys; (3) measurement of Eddington’s parameter at occultations; (4) mapping of gravity field in the outer solar system and study of the Kuiper belt. To this aim, the Odyssey mission is built up on a main spacecraft, designed to fly up to 13 AU, with the following components: (a) a high-precision accelerometer, with bias-rejection system, measuring the deviation of the trajectory from the geodesics, that is also giving gravitational forces; (b) Ka-band transponders, as for Cassini, for a precise range and Doppler measurement up to 13 AU, with additional VLBI equipment; (c) optional laser equipment, which would allow one to improve the range and Doppler measurement, resulting in particular in an improved measurement (with respect to Cassini) of the Eddington’s parameter. In this baseline concept, the main spacecraft is designed to operate beyond the Saturn orbit, up to 13 AU. It experiences multiple planetary fly-bys at Earth, Mars or Venus, and Jupiter. The cruise and fly-by phases allow the mission to achieve its baseline scientific objectives [(1) to (3) in the above list]. In addition to this baseline concept, the Odyssey mission proposes the release of the Enigma radio-beacon at Saturn, allowing one to extend the deep space gravity test up to at least 50 AU, while achieving the scientific objective of a mapping of gravity field in the outer Solar System [(4) in the above list].   相似文献   

Transpressional tectonics and nappe stacking along the Southern Variscan Front of Morocco   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrea Cerrina Feroni  Alessandro Ellero  Marco G. Malusà  Giovanni Musumeci  Giuseppe Ottria  Riccardo Polino  Leonardo Leoni 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2010,99(5):1111-1122

The Southern Variscan Front in the Tinerhir area involves Palaeozoic allochthonous units (Ouaklim and Tilouine units) thrust onto the northern edge of the West African Craton during late Carboniferous time. Illite crystallinity data highlight an anchizonal grade for the Ouaklim Unit, and a diagenesis-anchizone transition for the Tilouine Unit during deformation phase D1. The tectonic stack is crosscut by major dextral reverse faults bounding E–W trending domains of dominant shortening deformation (central domain) and strike-slip deformation (northern and southern domains), later segmented by a network of post-Variscan faults. This complex deformation pattern is the result of kinematic partitioning of dextral transpression along the Southern Variscan Front, coeval with the Neovariscan (300–290 Ma) oblique convergence observed at the scale of the whole Moroccan Variscides. Partitioning of dextral transpression described in the Tinerhir area is consistent with dextral wrench faulting along the Tizi n’ Test Fault, and with Appalachian-style south-directed thrusting in the Tinerhir and Bechar-Bou Arfa areas.  相似文献   

The Canary Eddy Corridor: A major pathway for long-lived eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic     

Pablo Sangrà  Ananda Pascual  Ángel Rodríguez-Santana  Francisco Machín  Evan Mason  James C. McWilliams  Josep L. Pelegrí  Changming Dong  Anna Rubio  Javier Arístegui  Ángeles Marrero-Díaz  Alonso Hernández-Guerra  Antonio Martínez-Marrero  Maricel Auladell 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2009,56(12):2100-2114

We report, from remote sensing and in situ observations, a new type of permanent structure in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean, that we call the “Canary Eddy Corridor”. The phenomenon, is a zonal long-lived (>3 months) mesoscale eddy corridor, whose source is the flow perturbation of the Canary Current and the Trade Winds at the Canary Islands. The latitudinal range of the corridor spans 22°N–29°N and extends from the Canaries to at least 32ºW, near the mid-Atlantic. This is the main region of long-lived westward-propagating eddies in the subtropical northeast Atlantic. From a age-distribution study we observe that at least 10% of mesoscale eddies in this region are long-lived, with a dominance of anticyclones over cyclones. Another four westward-propagating eddy corridors were also detected: two small corridors north and south of the Azores Front; a small zonal corridor located near 31ºN, south of the island of Madeira; and a small corridor located near the Cape Blanc giant filament. The existence of these corridors may change, at least for the northeastern subtropical Atlantic, the general idea that mesoscale eddies are disorganized, ubiquitous structures in the ocean. The Canary Eddy Corridor constitutes a direct zonal pathway that conveys water mass- and biogeochemical properties offshore from the Canary Island/Northwest Africa upwelling system, and may be seen as a recurrent offshore pump of organic matter and carbon to the oligotrophic ocean interior. Estimates of volume and mass transport indicate that Canary Eddy Corridor westward transport is more than one-fourth of the southward transport of the Canary Current. The westward transport of kinetic energy by the eddies of the Canary Corridor is as important as the southward transport by the Canary Current. The total primary production related to the Corridor may be as high as the total primary production of the northwest Africa upwelling system for the same latitude range.  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of fractures (Orientation and density)     

L. Kiràly 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1969,59(1):125-151

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Parameterization of Entrainment in a Sheared Convective Boundary Layer Using a First-order Jump Model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Si-Wan Kim  Soon-Ung Park  David Pino  Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,120(3):455-475

Basic entrainment equations applicable to the sheared convective boundary layer (CBL) are derived by assuming an inversion layer with a finite depth, i.e., the first-order jump model. Large-eddy simulation data are used to determine the constants involved in the parameterizations of the entrainment equations. Based on the integrated turbulent kinetic energy budget from surface to the top of the CBL, the resulting entrainment heat flux normalized by surface heat flux is a function of the inversion layer depth, the velocity jumps across the inversion layer, the friction velocity, and the convection velocity. The developed first-order jump model is tested against large-eddy simulation data of two independent cases with different inversion strengths. In both cases, the model reproduces quite reasonably the evolution of the CBL height, virtual potential temperature, and velocity components in the mixed layer and in the inversion layer.The part of this work was done when the first author visited at NCAR.  相似文献   

Estimates of Horizontal Groundwater Flow Velocities in Boreholes     

Martí Bayer-Raich  Anthony Credoz  Jordi Guimerà  Salvador Jordana  Diego Sampietro  Jordi Font-Capó  Nathalie Nief  Matthieu Grossemy 《Ground water》2019,57(4):525-533

Currently, monitoring tools can be deployed in observation boreholes to better assess groundwater flow, flux of dissolved contaminants and their mass discharge in an aquifer. The relationship between horizontal water velocity in observation boreholes and Darcy fluxes in the surrounding aquifer has been studied for natural flow conditions (i.e., no pumping). Interpretation of measurements taken with dilution tests, the colloidal borescope, the Heat Pulse Flowmeter, and other techniques require the conversion of observed borehole velocity u to aquifer Darcy flux q_∞ . This conversion is typically done through a proportionality factor α = u/q_∞ . In experimental studies as well as in theoretical developments, reported values of α vary almost three orders of magnitude (from 0.5 to 10). This large variability in reported values of α could be explained by: (1) unclear distinction between Darcy flux and water seepage velocity, (2) unclear definition of water velocity in the borehole, (3) effects of well screen and the presence of the measurement device itself on the observable velocities, and (4) hydraulic conditions in the borehole annulus. We address (1), (2) from a conceptual/theoretical perspective, and (3) by means of numerical simulations. We show that issue (1) in low porosity aquifers can yield to order-of-magnitude discrepancies in estimates of q_∞ ; (2) may result in discrepancies of up to 50%, and (3) can cause differences up to 20% of water velocity in the borehole void space compared to the theoretical case of an open borehole.  相似文献   

Testing the predictive power of seagrass depth limit models     

Carlos M. Duarte  Núria Marbà  Dorte Krause-Jensen  María Sánchez-Camacho 《Estuaries and Coasts》2007,30(4):652-656

The power of equations predicting seagrass depth limit (Z_c) from light extinction (K _z) was tested on data on seagrass depth limits collected from the literature. The test data set comprised 424 reports of seagrass colonization depth and water transparency, including data for 10 seagrass species. This data set confirmed the strong negative relationship betweenZ _c andK _z. The regression equation in Duarte (1991) overestimated the realized seagrass colonization depths at colonization depths < 5 m, while there was no prediction bias above this threshold. These results indicated that seagrass colonizing turbid waters (K _z 0.27 m^-1) have higher apparent light requirements than those growing in clearer waters. The relationship between seagrass colonization depth and light attenuation shifts at a threshold of light attenuation of 0.27 m^-1, requiring separate equations to predictZ _c for seagrass growing in more turbid waters and clearer waters, and to set targets for seagrass restoration and conservation efforts.  相似文献   

Seismic anomalies in the aftershock sequence of November 16, 2000, in Papua New Guinea     

D. Caccamo  F. Parrillo  S. D’Amico  F. M. Barbieri  C. Laganà 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2007,43(8):662-668

The study of seismic anomalies, related both to the temporal trend of aftershock sequences and to the temporal series of mainshocks, is important for an understanding of the physical processes relating to the existence and the characteristics of seismic precursors. The purpose of this work is to highlight some methodological aspects related to the observation of possible anomalies in the temporal decay of an aftershock sequence. It is realized by means of several parameters. We focused our work on an analysis of the Papua New Guinea seismic sequence that occurred on November 16, 2000. The magnitude of the mainshock is M = 8.2. The observed temporal series of shocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic contribution and a stochastic contribution. If the decay can be modeled as a nonstationary Poisson process where the intensity function is equal to n(t) = K(t + c)^−p + K ₁, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t)Δt, with a standard deviation σ = √n(t)Δt. We observe that there are some variations in seismicity that can be considered as seismic anomalies before the occurrence of a large aftershock. The data, checked according to completeness criteria, come from the website of the USGS NEIC data bank (). The text was submitted by the authors in English.  相似文献