Estimating gambling venue catchments for impact assessment using a calibrated gravity model     

Francis Markham  Bruce Doran  Martin Young 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(2):326-342

Gambling using electronic gaming machines (EGMs) has emerged as a significant public health issue. While social impact assessments are required prior to the granting of new gaming machine licenses in Australia, there are a few established techniques for estimating the spatial distribution of a venue’s clientele. To this end, we calibrated a Huff model of gambling venue catchments based on a geocoded postal survey (n = 7040). We investigated the impact of different venue attractiveness measures, distance measures, distance decay functions, levels of spatial aggregation and venue types on model fit and results. We then compared model estimates for different behavioural subgroups. Our calibrated spatial model is a significant improvement on previously published models, increasing R² from 0.23 to 0.64. Venue catchments differ radically in size and intensity. As different population subgroups are attracted to different venues, there is no single best index of venue attractiveness applicable to all subpopulations. The calibrated Huff model represents a useful regulatory tool for predicting the extent and composition of gambling venue catchments. It may assist in decision-making with regard to new license applications and evaluating the impact of health interventions such as mandated reductions in EGM numbers. Our calibrated parameters may be used to improve model accuracy in other jurisdictions.  相似文献   

How is CO2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis     

Witsanu Attavanich  Bruce A. McCarl 《Climatic change》2014,124(4):747-762

This paper analyzes the impact of climate, crop production technology, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on current and future crop yields. The analysis of crop yields endeavors to advance the literature by estimating the effect of atmospheric CO₂ on observed crop yields. This is done using an econometric model estimated over pooled historical data for 1950–2009 and data from the free air CO₂ enrichment experiments. The main econometric findings are: 1) Yields of C3 crops (soybeans, cotton, and wheat) directly respond to the elevated CO₂, while yields of C4 crops (corn and sorghum) do not, but they are found to indirectly benefit from elevated CO₂ in times and places of drought stress; 2) The effect of technological progress on mean yields is non-linear; 3) Ignoring atmospheric CO₂ in an econometric model of crop yield likely leads to overestimates of the pure effects of technological progress on crop yields of about 51, 15, 17, 9, and 1 % of observed yield gain for cotton, soybeans, wheat, corn and sorghum, respectively; 4) Average climate conditions and climate variability contribute in a statistically significant way to average crop yields and their variability; and 5) The effect of CO₂ fertilization generally outweighs the effect of climate change on mean crop yields in many regions resulting in an increase of 7–22, 4–47, 5–26, 65–96, and 3–35 % for yields of corn, sorghum, soybeans, cotton, and wheat, respectively.  相似文献   

Cloud computing and virtualization within the regional climate model and evaluation system     

Chris A. Mattmann  Duane Waliser  Jinwon Kim  Cameron Goodale  Andrew Hart  Paul Ramirez  Dan Crichton  Paul Zimdars  Maziyar Boustani  Kyo Lee  Paul Loikith  Kim Whitehall  Chris Jack  Bruce Hewitson 《Earth Science Informatics》2014,7(1):1-12

The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) facilitates the rapid, flexible inclusion of NASA observations into climate model evaluations. RCMES provides two fundamental components. A database (RCMED) is a scalable point-oriented cloud database used to elastically store remote sensing observations and to make them available using a space time query interface. The analysis toolkit (RCMET) is a Python-based toolkit that can be delivered as a cloud virtual machine, or as an installer package deployed using Python Buildout to users in order to allow for temporal and spatial regridding, metrics calculation (RMSE, bias, PDFs, etc.) and end-user visualization. RCMET is available to users in an “offline”, lone scientist mode based on a virtual machine dynamically constructed with model outputs and observations to evaluate; or on an institution’s computational cluster seated close to the observations and model outputs. We have leveraged RCMES within the content of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, working with the University of Cape Town and other institutions to compare the model output to NASA remote sensing data; in addition we are also working with the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). In this paper we explain the contribution of cloud computing to RCMES’s specifically describing studies of various cloud databases we evaluated for RCMED, and virtualization toolkits for RCMET, and their potential strengths in delivering user-created dynamic regional climate model evaluation virtual machines for our users.  相似文献   

Deciphering petrogenic processes using Pb isotope ratios from time-series samples at Bezymianny and Klyuchevskoy volcanoes,Central Kamchatka Depression     

Theresa?M.?KayzarEmail author  Bruce?K.?Nelson  Olivier?Bachmann  Ann?M.?Bauer  Pavel?E.?Izbekov 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(4):1067

The Klyuchevskoy group of volcanoes in the Kamchatka arc erupts compositionally diverse magmas (high-Mg basalts to dacites) over small spatial scales. New high-precision Pb isotope data from modern juvenile (1956–present) erupted products and hosted enclaves and xenoliths from Bezymianny volcano reveal that Bezymianny and Klyuchevskoy volcanoes, separated by only 9 km, undergo varying degrees of crustal processing through independent crustal columns. Lead isotope compositions of Klyuchevskoy basalts–basaltic andesites are more radiogenic than Bezymianny andesites (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.850–37.903, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.468–15.480, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.249–18.278 at Bezymianny; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 37.907–37.949, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.478–15.487, and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.289–18.305 at Klyuchevskoy). A mid-crustal xenolith with a crystallization pressure of 5.2 ± 0.6 kbars inferred from two-pyroxene geobarometry and basaltic andesite enclaves from Bezymianny record less radiogenic Pb isotope compositions than their host magmas. Hence, assimilation of such lithologies in the middle or lower crust can explain the Pb isotope data in Bezymianny andesites, although a component of magma mixing with less radiogenic mafic recharge magmas and possible mantle heterogeneity cannot be excluded. Lead isotope compositions for the Klyuchevskoy Group are less radiogenic than other arc segments (Karymsky—Eastern Volcanic Zone; Shiveluch—Northern Central Kamchatka Depression), which indicate increased lower-crustal assimilation beneath the Klyuchevskoy Group. Decadal timescale Pb isotope variations at Klyuchevskoy demonstrate rapid changes in the magnitude of assimilation at a volcanic center. Lead isotope data coupled with trace element data reflect the influence of crustal processes on magma compositions even in thin mafic volcanic arcs.  相似文献   

Temporal evolution and compositional signatures of two supervolcanic systems recorded in zircons from Mangakino volcanic centre,New Zealand     

George?F.?CooperEmail author  Colin?J.?N.?Wilson  Bruce?L.?A.?Charlier  Joseph?L.?Wooden  Trevor?R.?Ireland 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(6):1018

Mangakino, the oldest rhyolitic caldera centre delineated in the Taupo Volcanic Zone of New Zealand, generated two very large (super-sized) ignimbrite eruptions, the 1.21 ± 0.04 Ma >500 km³ Ongatiti and ~1.0 Ma ~1,200 km³ Kidnappers events, the latter of which was followed after a short period of erosion by the ~200 km³ Rocky Hill eruption. We present U/Pb ages and trace-element analyses on zircons from pumice clasts from these three eruptions by Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) using SHRIMP-RG instruments to illustrate the evolution of the respective magmatic systems. U–Pb age spectra from the Ongatiti imply growth of the magmatic system over ~250 kyr, with a peak of crystallisation around 1.32 Ma, ~100 kyr prior to eruption. The zircons are inferred to have then remained stable in a mush with little crystallisation and/or dissolution before later rejuvenation of the system at the lead-in to eruption. The paired Kidnappers and Rocky Hill eruptions have U–Pb zircon ages and geochemical signatures that suggest they were products of a common system grown over ~200 kyr. The Kidnappers and Rocky Hill samples show similar weakly bimodal age spectra, with peaks at 1.1 and 1.0 Ma, suggesting that an inherited antecrystic population was augmented by crystals grown at ages within uncertainty of the eruption age. In the Kidnappers, this younger age peak is dominantly seen in needle-shaped low U grains with aspect ratios of up to 18. In all three deposits, zircon cores show larger ranges and higher absolute concentrations of trace elements than zircon rims, consistent with zircon crystallisation from evolving melts undergoing crystal fractionation involving plagioclase and amphibole. Abundances and ratios of many trace elements frequently show variations between different sectors within single grains, even where there is no visible sector zoning in cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging. Substitution mechanisms, as reflected in the molar (Sc + Y + REE³⁺)/P ratio, differ in the same growth zone between the sides (along a-axis and b-axis: values approaching 1.0) and tips (c-axis: values between 1.5 and 5.0) of single crystals. These observations have implications for the use of zircons for tracking magmatic processes, particularly in techniques where CL zonation within crystals is not assessed and small analytical spot sizes cannot be achieved. These observations also limit applicability of the widely used Ti-in-zircon thermometer. The age spectra for the Ongatiti and Kidnappers/Rocky Hill samples indicate that both magmatic systems were newly built in the time-breaks after respective previous large eruptions from Mangakino. Trace element variations defining three-component mixing suggest that zircons, sourced from multiple melts, contributed to the population in each system.  相似文献   

Unnoticed but important: revealing the hidden contribution of community-based religious institution of the mosque in disasters     

Abdur Rehman Cheema  Regina Scheyvens  Bruce Glavovic  Muhammad Imran 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):2207-2229

The role of community-based religious institutions has been largely undocumented, underestimated and overshadowed in the disaster studies literature. This paper explores the role of the mosque, a community-based religious institution, in disaster management by documenting and analysing its role in rural settings in the aftermath of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. The study examines the role of the mosque in relation to key actors from the state, civil society and private sector during response, relief, recovery, reconstruction and rehabilitation phases of the Pakistan earthquake. Using qualitative research methods and a case study design, this article analyses primary data collected through 5 months of fieldwork (in 2009 and 2010). The findings demonstrate the multifaceted and distinct contribution of the mosque in cultural, economic, social and political aspects of the lives of the earthquake-affected communities. Possible challenges to engagement with the mosque, both gender inclusiveness and political controversy around its role, are also raised. This research suggests that state, civil society and private sector actors involved in disaster management need to understand complex relationships involving people and their religious institutions, and their impact on the social dimension of recovery. The findings of the study contribute to the scarce knowledge about the role of community-based religious institutions including churches, mosques, synagogues and temples and call for engagement: that is, acknowledging and valuing their role for building a synergy between secular and religious efforts for disaster risk reduction and post-disaster recovery.  相似文献   

Graded-Density Reservoirs for Accessing High Stress Low Temperature Material States   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Raymond F. Smith  K. Thomas Lorenz  Darwin Ho  Bruce A. Remington  Alex Hamza  John Rogers  Stephen Pollaine  Seokwoo Jeon  Yun-Suk Nam  J. Kilkenny 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,307(1-3):269-272

In recently developed laser-driven shockless compression experiments an ablatively driven shock in a primary target is transformed into a ramp compression wave in a secondary target via unloading followed by stagnation across an intermediate vacuum gap. Current limitations on the achievable peak longitudinal stresses are limited by the ability of shaping the temporal profile of the ramp compression pulse. We report on new techniques using graded density reservoirs for shaping the loading profile and extending these techniques to high peak pressures.  相似文献   

The 2dF galaxy redshift survey: clustering properties of radio galaxies     

Manuela Magliocchetti  Steve J. Maddox  Ed Hawkins  John A. Peacock  Joss Bland-Hawthorn  Terry Bridges  Russell Cannon  Shaun Cole  Matthew Colless  Chris Collins  Warrick Couch  Gavin Dalton  Roberto de Propris  Simon P. Driver  George Efstathiou  Richard S. Ellis  Carlos S. Frenk  Karl Glazebrook  Carole A. Jackson  Bryn Jones  Ofer Lahav  Ian Lewis  Stuart Lumsden  Peder Norberg  Bruce A. Peterson  Will Sutherland  Keith Taylor 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,350(4):1485-1494

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Shear strength of lunar soil from oceanus procellarum     

Leonard D. Jaffe 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1973,8(1-2):58-72

Soil from the scoop of Surveyor 3, returned to Earth by Apollo 12 astronauts, has been tested in a miniature shear box at five bulk densities, from 0.99 to 1.87 g cm^–3. Cohesion increased with bulk density from 3 × 10^–2 to 3 × 10^–1 N cm^–2; internal friction angle increased from 13° to 56°. Shear stress vs normal stress data fit a logarithmic relationship better than a linear one, at normal stresses of 3 × 10^–3 to 3 x 10⁰ N cm^–2. Results of these tests, in air, show no systematic differences from those for tests made elsewhere in vacuum and nitrogen. Results agree with those obtained in remotely controlled lunar surface operations with Surveyor 3 and other spacecraft provided that the bulk density was slightly underestimated for the on-surface measurements.Paper dedicated to Prof. Harold C. Urey on the occasion of his 80th birthday on 29 April 1973.This work represents one phase of research conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, under Contract NAS 7-100.  相似文献