基于雷达资料的定量降水预报外推算法试验     

苏华英  曾莉萍  罗乃兴  王国松 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2020,14(5):27-35

摘要：目前贵州在短时临近降水预报客观算法方面研究匮乏，而短时强降水常常给贵州造成严重的洪涝灾害和地质灾害。将短时临近降水预报应用于气象防灾减灾、电网输电线路安全预警、水利防洪自动化方面是未来重要的研究应用方向。本文基于灾害天气短时临近系统（Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System，SWAN）的定量降水预报(QPF)产品进行0～2小时QPF外推试验研究。利用贵州省地面自动站数据、SWAN 输出的1h-QPF产品、SWAN 1h定量降水估测(QPE)产品。选取2018年3次典型暴雨个例进行试验，采用融合订正技术，利用相似离度算法对降水强度位相进行调整、Weibull分布算法对降水极值分布进行订正、改进后的交叉相关法(Improved Cross-correlation Extrapolation Method，COTREC)进行降水外推预报。通过主客观检验对比，初步说明基于Weibull分布算法的降水极值订正对降水极值分布有很好的模拟效果。融合订正外推的贵州省短时临近定量降水预报产品（Nowcasting precipitation forecast of GuiZhou，下文简写为GZ_NPF）在大于5mm以上量级降水的TS检验中评分更高。GZ_NPF的空报率明显降低，但空报率降低的代价是漏报率相对提高。GZ_NPF总的相对误差减小，格点总降水量与实况总降水量更为接近。试验说明新的融合订正外推算法提高了0～2h短时临近降水的预报能力。  相似文献   

Geology and isotopic composition of helium,neon, xenon and metallogenic age of the Jinding and Baiyangping ore deposits,northwest Yunnan,China   总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23  

薛春纪  陈毓川  王登红  杨建民  杨伟光  曾荣 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(8):789-800

TheJindingoredeposit,locatedinthenorthwestYunnanProvince,isthelargestPb-Zndeposit(Pb Zn>15Mt1),averagingZn=6.08%andPb/Zn=1/4.7)inChinaatpresent.Toitsnorth,alargeCu-Co-AgdeposithasbeenfoundatBaiyangpingrecently1).TheJindingPb-Zndepositishostedinsandstonesa…  相似文献   

Structural physical parameter identification based on evolutionary-simplex algorithm and structural dynamic response   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杜修力  曾迪 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2003,2(2):225-236

Evolutionary computation based on the idea of biologic evolution is one type of global optimization algorithm that uses self-adaptation, self-organization and random searching to solve optimization problems. The evolutionary-simplex algorithm is introduced in this paper. It contains floating encoding which combines the evolutionary computation and the simplex algorithm to ovcrcomc the problems encountered in the genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy methods.Numerical cxpcrimcnts arc performed using seven typical functions to verify the algorithm. An inverse analysis method to identify structural physical parameters based on incomplete dynamic responses obtained from the analysis in the time domain is prcscntcd by using the evolutionary-simplex algorithm. The modal evolutionary-simplex algorithm converted from the time domain to the modal domain is proposed to improve the inverse efficiency. Numerical calculations for a 50-DOF system show that whcn compared with other methods, the evolutionary-simplex algorithm offers advantages of high precision,cfficient searching ability, strong ability to resist noise, independence of initial value, and good adaptation to incomplete information conditions.  相似文献   

电子信息系统雷灾风险评估方法   总被引：3，自引：5，他引：3  

谢海华  曾山泊  肖稳安 《气象科学》2006,26(3):307-315

灾害是一种风险,防治灾害就是管理并降低或者消除风险。需要正确认识和评估风险,对于雷电灾害来说就是开展雷电灾害风险评估,进而实施合理的雷电防护。因此,雷击风险评估是防雷设计工作之前的最重要的环节,为了全面、具体实施全方位的雷电防护提供客观、准确、科学的依据,本文针对电子信息系统雷电灾害的特点,在详细分析各种灾害成因的基础上,通过理论计算,提出了对雷电灾害进行风险评估的方法。  相似文献   

南京市SO2污染浓度时空分布特征及统计预报方法的研究   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

张静  吕军  王啸华  曾明剑  程婷 《气象科学》2006,26(4):422-426

本文根据南京市六个空气污染浓度监测站的2001年6月至2005年7月的SO2污染浓度监测资料分析南京市SO2污染浓度的时空分布变化特征,结果为6个站浓度值有明显的季节变化特征,且在冬季容易出现南北相反的分布特征。针对目前常用的回归预报方法在选取气象要素时没有考虑其互相之间的相关性的缺点,本文提出了一种建立在EOF展开基础上的首先使预报因子正交化,再与逐步回归方程结合并且资料逐日更新的变系数的新型统计预报模型,经过实际预报检验,预报准确率比较高,有很好的应用效果。  相似文献   

Scaling and correlation of atmospheric acid deposition evolutions     

Jianlin Zhu  Guangming Zeng 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,21(2):143-149

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and power spectrum density are applied to verify the presence of temporal scaling behavior and long-range persistence (LRP) of weekly hydrogen ion deposition (WHD), NO₃^- and SO₄^2- deposition series in National Atmospheric Deposition Program, USA, for the period 1978–2001. The results show a common scaling behavior for all sites analyzed. Two distinct scaling regions are identified by DFA1, one corresponding to 1 month to 1 year and the other to 1 year to 5 years. The WHD series obey power-law in two temporal regimes respectively with mean DFA1 scaling exponents α ₁≈0.68 and α ₂≈0.45, implying the presence of LRP in the acid deposition series and there is a tendency for a large deposition event to be followed by another large event, and vice versa. For DFA2–DFA4, however, the annual crossover, which divides the temporal scale into two regimes, disappears gradually with the order q of DFAq increasing, and the two scaling regimes turn to share the same scaling exponent close to α ₁. The result indicates that the scaling behavior exits in the two regimes with the same scaling exponent α ₁, and LRP prevails during the examined 1-month to 5-years scale. NO₃^- and SO₄^2- deposition evolve the same way as WHD does, implying the pollutants involving in acid deposition may share some prominent mechanism controlling their evolutions. We ascribe the long-range power-law scaling of acid deposition evolutions to the self-organized critical behavior of atmosphere under pollution stress and it should be considered in the trend prediction of acid deposition as an important factor.  相似文献   

新疆西南天山哈布腾苏一带榴辉岩的岩石学特征及变质作用P-T轨迹   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

吕增张立飞  曲军锋李慧娟 《岩石学报》2007,23(7):1617-1626

西南天山哈布腾苏河沿岸的含石墨的石榴石多硅白云母石英片岩中出露一套若干大小不等的布丁状变基性岩块,产状与区域面理一致。本文对其中保存完好的榴辉岩体进行了较为细致的岩石学研究和温压演化条件计算。根据主要矿物的含量,将该套榴辉岩大致分为两类—角闪榴辉岩和钠云母榴辉岩,二者的主要矿物均为 Grt Omp Na-Ca-Amp Pg Dol/Cal Rt±Qtz。石榴石变斑晶两阶段生长明显,从核部到边部 X_(Mn)和X_(Fe)降低,X_(Mg)和 X_(Ca)升高,指示了升温降压的变质过程。根据石榴石核部和边部的包体组合特征,确立了两期榴辉岩相变质作用:前一阶段经历了高压但较低温的硬柱石-硬绿泥石(仅见假象)榴辉岩相,变质温度为400～500℃,压力不低于1.8～1.9GPa,表明早期经历了快速俯冲过程;后一阶段的变质温度为570±30℃,压力为2.0～2.5GPa。在退变质绿帘角闪岩相阶段,形成低压脉体(矿物组合为 Ab Di Na-Ca-Amp Ep/Czo Cal)和一系列退变质反应结构,如 Dol 的 Cal 增生边,Omp 的 Di Ab 后成合晶结构。利用 Dol-Cal 分溶温度计和 Di的 Jd 分子含量得到该阶段的温度约500～530℃,压力小于0.9～1.1GPa,表明其退变质经历的是降温降压过程。这与利用Thermocalc 3.1在 NCFMASH 体系下计算的 PT 视剖面图是一致的。  相似文献   

Interactions between basalts and oil source rocks in rift basins： CO2 generation     

金强  许丽  万从礼  曾怡 《中国地球化学学报》2007,26(1):58-65

Basalts interbedded with oil source rocks are discovered frequently in rift basins of eastern China, where CO2 is found in reservoirs around or within basalts, for example in the Binnan reservoir of the Dongying Depression. In the reservoirs, CO2 with heavy carbon isotopic composition (δ13C>-10‰ PDB) is in most cases accounts for 40% of the total gas reserve, and is believed to have resulted from degassing of basaltic magma from the mantle. In their investigations of the Binnan reservoir, the authors suggested that the CO2 would result from interactions between the source rocks and basalts. As the source rocks around basalts are rich in carbonate minerals, volcanic minerals, transition metals and organic matter, during their burial history some of the transition metals were catalyzed on the thermal degradation of organic matter into hydrocarbons and on the decomposition of carbonate minerals into CO2, which was reproduced in thermal simulations of the source rocks with the transition metals (Ni and Co). This kind of CO2 accounts for 55%-85% of the total gas reserve generated in the process of thermal simulation, and its δ13C values range from -11‰- -7.2‰ PDB, which are very similar to those of CO2 found in the Binnan reservoir. The co-generation of CO2 and hydrocarbon gases makes it possible their accumulation together in one trap. In other words, if the CO2 resulted directly from degassing of basaltic magma or was derived from the mantle, it could not be accumulated with hydrocarbon gases because it came into the basin much earlier than hydrocarbon generation and much earlier than trap formation. Therefore, the source rocks around basalts generated hydrocarbons and CO2 simultaneously through catalysis of Co and Ni transition metals, which is useful for the explanation of co-accumulation of hydrocarbon gases and CO2 in rift basins in eastern China.  相似文献   

九江-瑞昌地震的精确定位及其发震构造初探   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

吕坚  倪四道  沈小七  高建华  曾新福 《中国地震》2007,23(2):166-174

联合采用双差法和主事件法,对2005年11月26日发生在江西省九江县与瑞昌市交界的5.7级地震序列进行了重新定位,并在此基础上讨论了5.7级主震的震源机制解和可能的发震构造。结果显示:精定位后震源位置的估算误差在EW方向上平均为0.31km,NS方向上平均为0.40km,竖直方向上平均为0.48km,故而得到了更加精细的空间分布图像。此次地震序列在NNW-NW向呈现优势分布,震源深度主要集中在8～14km,又以10～12km最具优势。主震的震源位置大致为北纬29.69°,东经115.74°,震源深度约10.8km。结合地震序列优势分布、主震震源机制解和震区NE向、NW向断裂发育的构造背景,初步推测本次地震序列的主震可能是由瑞昌盆地内的一条NW向隐伏断层活动引发的,发震断层的性质有待于进一步研究。  相似文献   

Geochemical anomalies of hydrothermal plume at EPR 13°N     

Wang XiaoYuan  Zeng ZhiGang  Liu ChangHua  Yin XueBo  Yu ShaoXiong  Yuan ChunWei  Zhang GuoLiang  Wang XiaoMei 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(9):1433-1440

During the DY105-12, 14cruise (R/V DAYANG YIHAO, November 2003) on East Pacific Rise (EPR) 12- 13°N, the submarine hydrothermal activity was investigated and the CTD hydrocast was carried out at EPR12°39′N-12°54′N. From the temperature anomalies and the concentrations of magnesium, chlorine, bromine in seawater samples, we discover that magnesium depletes 9.3%-22.4%, chlorine and bro- mine enrich 10.3%-28.7% and 10.7%-29.0% respectively relative to normal seawater at the stations which have chemistry anomalies, moreover temperature and chemistry anomalies are at the same layer. The depletion of magnesium in the plume may be caused by a fluid lacking of magnesium which rises after the hydrothermal fluid reaches the equilibrium with ambient seawater, the enrichment of chlorine and bromine might be the result of inputting later brine which is generated by phase separation due to hydrothermal activity. In addition, the Br/Cl ratio in the abnormal layers at the survey area is identical to that in seawater, which implies that halite dissolution (or precipitation) occurs neither when the fluid is vented nor when hydrothermal fluid entraining ambient seawater rises to form plume. From the ab- normal instance at E55 station, it is very possible that there might exist a new hydrothermal vent site.  相似文献