Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise     

Barbara Sophia Koelbl  Machteld A. van den Broek  André P. C. Faaij  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):461-476

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can be a valuable CO₂ mitigation option, but what role CCS will play in the future is uncertain. In this paper we analyze the results of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) taking part in the 27th round of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) with respect to the role of CCS in long term mitigation scenarios. Specifically we look into the use of CCS as a function of time, mitigation targets, availability of renewables and its use with different fuels. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to relate model results to general and CCS specific model assumptions. The results show a wide range of cumulative capture in the 2010–2100 period (600–3050 GtCO₂), but the fact that no model projects less than 600 GtCO₂ indicates that CCS is considered to be important by all these models. Interestingly, CCS storage rates are often projected to be still increasing in the second half of this century. Depending on the scenario, at least six out of eight, up to all models show higher storage rates in 2100 than in 2050. CCS shares in cumulative primary energy use are in most models increasing with the stringency of the target or under conservative availability of renewables. The strong variations of CCS deployment projection rates could not be related to the reported differences in the assumptions of the models by means of a cross-model comparison in this sample.  相似文献   

Non-linear station motions in epoch and multi-year reference frames   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

Mathis Bloßfeld  Manuela Seitz  Detlef Angermann 《Journal of Geodesy》2014,88(1):45-63

In the conventions of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (e.g. IERS Conventions 2010), it is recommended that the instantaneous station position, which is fixed to the Earth’s crust, is described by a regularized station position and conventional correction models. Current realizations of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame use a station position at a reference epoch and a constant velocity to describe the motion of the regularized station position in time. An advantage of this parameterization is the possibility to provide station coordinates of high accuracy over a long time span. Various publications have shown that residual non-linear station motions can reach a magnitude of a few centimeters due to not considered loading effects. Consistently estimated parameters like the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) may be affected if these non-linear station motions are neglected. In this paper, we investigate a new approach, which is based on a frequent (e.g. weekly) estimation of station positions and EOP from a combination of epoch normal equations of the space geodetic techniques Global Positioning System (GPS), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). The resulting time series of epoch reference frames are studied in detail and are compared with the conventional secular approach. It is shown that both approaches have specific advantages and disadvantages, which are discussed in the paper. A major advantage of the frequently estimated epoch reference frames is that the non-linear station motions are implicitly taken into account, which is a major limiting factor for the accuracy of the secular frames. Various test computations and comparisons between the epoch and secular approach are performed. The authors found that the consistently estimated EOP are systematically affected by the two different combination approaches. The differences between the epoch and secular frames reach magnitudes of $23.6~\upmu \hbox {as}$ (0.73 mm) and $39.8~\upmu \hbox {as}$ (1.23 mm) for the x-pole and y-pole, respectively, in case of the combined solutions. For the SLR-only solutions, significant differences with amplitudes of $77.3~\upmu \hbox {as}$ (2.39 mm) can be found.  相似文献   

Properties of adjoint sea ice sensitivities to atmospheric forcing and implications for the causes of the long term trend of Arctic sea ice     

Nikolay V. Koldunov  Armin Köhl  Detlef Stammer 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(2):227-241

Based on adjoint sensitivities of the coupled Massachusetts Institute of Technology ocean–sea ice circulation model, the potential influence of thermodynamic atmospheric forcing on the interannual variability of the September sea ice area (AREA) and volume (VOLUME) in the Arctic is investigated for the three periods 1980–1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. Sensitivities suggest that only large forcing anomalies prior to the spring melting onset in May can influence the September sea ice characteristics while even small changes in the atmospheric variables during subsequent months can significantly influence September sea ice state. Specifically, AREA close to the ice edge in the Arctic seas is highly sensitive to thermodynamic atmospheric forcing changes from June to July. In contrast, VOLUME is highly sensitive to atmospheric temperature changes occurring during the same period over the central parts of the Arctic Ocean. A comparison of the sea ice conditions and sensitivities during three different periods reveals that, due to the strong decline of sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness, sea ice area became substantially more sensitive to the same amplitude thermodynamic atmospheric forcing anomalies during 2000–2009 relative to the earlier periods. To obtain a quantitative estimate of changes that can be expected from existing atmospheric trends, adjoint sensitivities are multiplied by monthly temperature differences between 1980s and two following decades. Strongest contributions of surface atmospheric temperature differences to AREA and VOLUME changes are observed during May and September. The strongest contribution from the downward long-wave heat flux to AREA changes occurs in September and to VOLUME changes in July–August. About 62 % of the AREA decrease simulated by the model can be explained by summing all contributions to the thermodynamic atmospheric forcing. The changing sea ice state (sensitivity) is found to enhance the decline and accounts for about one third of the explained reduction. For the VOLUME decrease, the explained fraction of the decrease is only about 37 %.  相似文献   

The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C—insights from integrated assessment modelling     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Sebastiaan Deetman  Jasper van Vliet  Maarten van den Berg  Bas J. van Ruijven  Barbara Koelbl 《Climatic change》2013,118(1):15-27

Limiting climate change to 2 °C with a high probability requires reducing cumulative emissions to about 1600 GtCO₂ over the 2000–2100 period. This requires unprecedented rates of decarbonization even in the short-run. The availability of the option of net negative emissions, such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or reforestation/afforestation, allows to delay some of these emission reductions. In the paper, we assess the demand and potential for negative emissions in particular from BECCS. Both stylized calculations and model runs show that without the possibility of negative emissions, pathways meeting the 2 °C target with high probability need almost immediate emission reductions or simply become infeasible. The potential for negative emissions is uncertain. We show that negative emissions from BECCS are probably limited to around 0 to 10 GtCO₂/year in 2050 and 0 to 20 GtCO₂/year in 2100. Estimates on the potential of afforestation options are in the order of 0–4 GtCO₂/year. Given the importance and the uncertainty concerning BECCS, we stress the importance of near-term assessments of its availability as today’s decisions has important consequences for climate change mitigation in the long run.  相似文献   

US presidents and the failure to ratify multilateral environmental agreements     

Guri Bang  Jon Hovi  Detlef F. Sprinz 《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):755-763

Whereas the US President signed the Kyoto Protocol, the failure of the US Congress to ratify it seriously hampered subsequent international climate cooperation. This recent US trend, of signing environmental treaties but failing to ratify them, could thwart attempts to come to a future climate agreement. Two complementary explanations of this trend are proposed. First, the political system of the US has distinct institutional features that make it difficult for presidents to predict whether the Senate will give its advice and consent to multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and whether Congress will pass the required enabling legislation. Second, elected for a fixed term, US presidents might benefit politically from supporting MEAs even when knowing that legislative support is not forthcoming. Four policy implications are explored, concerning the scope for unilateral presidential action, the potential for bipartisan congressional support, the effectiveness of a treaty without the US, and the prospects for a deep, new climate treaty.

Policy relevance

Why does the failure of US ratification of multilateral environmental treaties occur? This article analyses the domestic political mechanisms involved in cases of failed US ratification. US non-participation in global environmental institutions often has serious ramifications. For example, it sharply limited Kyoto's effectiveness and seriously hampered international climate negotiations for years. Although at COP 17 in Durban the parties agreed to negotiate a new agreement by 2015, a new global climate treaty may well trigger a situation resembling the one President Clinton faced in 1997 when he signed Kyoto but never obtained support for it in the Senate. US failure to ratify could thwart future climate agreements.  相似文献   

The retrieval of the Asian dust depolarization ratio in Korea with the correction of the polarization-dependent transmission     

Sungkyun Shin  Detlef Müller  Y. J. Kim  Boyan Tatarov  Dongho Shin  Patric Seifert  Young Min Noh 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(1):19-25

The linear particle depolarization ratios were retrieved from the observation with a multiwavelength Raman lidar at the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST), Korea (35.11°N, 126.54°E). The measurements were carried out in spring (March to May) 2011. The transmission ratio measurements were performed to solve problems of the depolarization-dependent transmission at a receiver of the lidar and applied to correct the retrieved depolarization ratio of Asian dust at first time in Korea. The analyzed data from the GIST multiwavelength Raman lidar were classified into three categories according to the linear particle depolarization ratios, which are pure Asian dust on 21 March, the intermediate case which means Asian dust mixed with urban pollution on 13 May, and haze case on 10 April. The measured transmission ratios were applied to these cases respectively. We found that the transmission ratio is needed to be used to retrieve the accurate depolarization ratio of Asian dust and also would be useful to distinguish the mixed dust particles between intermediate case and haze. The particle depolarization ratios of pure Asian dust were approximately 0.25 at 532 nm and 0.14 at 532 nm for the intermediate case. The linear particle depolarization ratios of pure Asian dust observed with the GIST multiwavelength Raman lidar were compared to the linear particle depolarization ratios of Saharan dust observed in Morocco and Asian dust observed both in Japan and China.  相似文献   

Mobility and H2O loss from fluid inclusions in natural quartz crystals     

Andreas Audétat  Detlef Günther 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1999,137(1-2):1-14

Petrographic observations on quartz crystals from the Mole Granite (Australia) and other localities shed new light on the mechanisms of post-entrapment modification of fluid inclusions. These modifications include migration away from pseudosecondary trails, changes in fluid salinity and density, shape distortion and the formation of “sweat-haloes” around strongly deformed inclusions. Increases in fluid salinity, which usually are associated with inclusion migration, indicate water-losses of up to 50%. However, LA-ICP-MS-analysis of unmobilized and mobilized inclusions of the same trail reveals basically unchanged ratios of major – and trace element cations, with the exception of Li, which seems to be incorporated into the crystal lattice during migration. Despite the fact that all these modifications are closely related to deformation processes, they occur not only in mechanically deformed quartz, but also in free-standing crystals. In the latter samples, stress has been generated internally as a result of brazil-twinned growth and compositional zonation. These observations and their interpretation leads to a list of practical criteria that should help in differentiating between reliable and suspect fluid inclusions in other samples. Received: 17 November 1998 / Accepted: 16 April 1999  相似文献   

Trace element compositions of minerals in garnet and spinel peridotite xenoliths from the Vitim volcanic field, Transbaikalia, eastern Siberia   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

Sandra M. Glaser  Stephen F. Foley  Detlef Gü  nther 《Lithos》1999,48(1-4):263-285

Peridotite xenoliths from the Bereya alkali picrite tuff in the Vitim volcanic province of Transbaikalia consist of garnet lherzolite, garnet–spinel lherzolite and spinel lherzolite varieties. The volcanism is related to the Cenozoic Baikal Rift. All peridotites come from pressures of 20–23 kbar close to the garnet to spinel peridotite transition depth, and the presence of garnet can be attributed to cooling of spinel peridotites, probably during formation of the lithosphere. The peridotites show petrographic and mineral chemical evidence for infiltration by an alkaline silicate melt shortly before their transport to the Earth's surface. The melt infiltration event is indicated petrographically by clinopyroxenes which mimic melt morphologies, and post-dates outer kelyphitic rims on garnets which are attributed to an isochemical heating event within the mantle before transport to the Earth's surface. Single-mineral thermometry gives reasonable temperature estimates of 1050±50°C, whereas two-mineral methods involving clinopyroxene are falsified by secondary components in clinopyroxene introduced during the melt infiltration event. Excimer Laser–ICP-MS analysis has been performed for an extensive palette of both incompatible and compatible trace elements, and manifests the most thorough dataset available for this rock type. Orthopyroxene and garnet show only partial equilibration of trace elements with the infiltrating melt, whereas clinopyroxene and amphibole are close to equilibration with the melt and with each other. The incompatible element composition of the infiltrating melt calculated from the clinopyroxene and amphibole analyses via experimental mineral/melt partition coefficients is similar to the host alkali picrite, and probably represents a low melt fraction from a similar source during rift propagation. The chemistry and chronology of the events recorded in the xenoliths delineates the series of events expected during the influence of an expanding rift region in the upper mantle, namely the progressive erosion of the lithosphere and the episodic upward and outward propagation of melts, resulting in the evolution of the Vitim volcanic field.  相似文献   

Testing the Quality of Sea-Level Data Using the GECCO Adjoint Assimilation Approach     

Martin G. Scharffenberg  Armin Köhl  Detlef Stammer 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(1):349-383

Besides providing an estimate of the changing ocean state, an important result of the dynamically consistent estimating the circulation and climate of the ocean (ECCO) state estimate approach is the provision of a posterior model–data residuals which contain important information about elements in the assimilated observations that are inconsistent with the model dynamics or with the information present in other ocean data sets that are being used as constraints in the assimilation procedure. Based on decreased GECCO2 model–data residuals, upon using the altimeter data through the ESA climate change initiative (cci) sea-level (SL) project, we show here that the recently reprocessed ESA SL_cci altimeter data set (SL1) has been improved relative to the earlier AVISO altimetry data set and is now more consistent with the GECCO2 estimate and with the information about the changing ocean state embedded in other ocean data sets. The improvement can be shown to exist separately for both TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS data sets. The study reveals that especially in regions characterized by small sea surface height (SSH) variability and small signal-to-noise ratio in the SSH data, improvements can be on the order of 30% of previously existing model–data residuals. However, in some regions we can find degradations, particulary in those where GECCO2 has little skill in representing the altimeter data and where evaluation of the products with GECCO2 is thus not advisable. Upon the assimilation of the new SL1 data set, the GECCO2 synthesis was further improved. However, adding the sea surface temperature (SST) from the SST_cci project as additional constrain, no further impact can be identified.  相似文献   

M. KAFATOS (ed.): Supermassive Black Holes. Proceedings of the third Georg Mason Astrophysics Workshop held at Georg Mason University,Fairfax, Virginia 14–16 October, 1986, Cambridge University Press 1988, Preis: £ 35.- ISBN 0-521-34246-5     

Detlef Elstner 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1989,310(2):150-150

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