Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Malte Meinshausen  Bill Hare  Tom M. M. Wigley  Detlef Van Vuuren  Michel G. J. Den Elzen  Rob Swart 《Climatic change》2006,75(1-2):151-194

So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO₂ and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by ‘walking along equal quantile paths’ of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO₂ and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO₂ concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 ^∘C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO₂ equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See for EQW-software and data.  相似文献   

Compressible viscoelasticity: stability of solutions for homogeneous plane-Earth models     

Volker Klemann  Patrick Wu  Detlef Wolf 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,153(3):569-585

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Sodic Pyroxene and Sodic Amphibole as Potential Reference Materials for In Situ Lithium Isotope Determinations by SIMS     

Michael A.W. Marks  Roberta L. Rudnick  Thomas Ludwig  Horst Marschall  Thomas Zack  Ralf Halama  William F. McDonough  Detlef Rost  Thomas Wenzel  Edward P. Vicenzi  Ivan P. Savov  Rainer Altherr  Gregor Markl 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2008,32(3):295-310

Two large pegmatitic crystals of sodic pyroxene (aegirine) and sodic amphibole (arfvedsonite) from the agpaitic igneous Ilímaussaq Complex, south Greenland were found to be suitable as reference materials for in situ Li isotope determinations. Lithium concentrations determined by SIMS and micro‐drilled material analysed by MC‐ICP‐MS generally agreed within analytical uncertainty. The arfvedsonite crystal was homogeneous with [Li] = 639 ± 51 μg g^?1 (2s, n = 69, MC‐ICP‐MS and SIMS results). The aegirine crystal shows strongly developed sector zoning, which is a common feature of aegirines. Using qualitative element mapping techniques (EPMA), the homogeneous core of the crystal was easily distinguished from the outermost sectors of the crystals. The core had a mean [Li] of 47.6 ± 3.6 μg g^?1 (2s, n = 33) as determined by SIMS. The seven micro‐drilled regions measured by solution MC‐ICP‐MS returned slightly lower concentrations (41–46 μg g^?1), but still overlap with the SIMS data within uncertainty. Based on MC‐ICP‐MS and SIMS analyses, the variation in δ⁷Li was about 1‰ in each of the two crystals, which is smaller than that in widely used glass reference materials, making these two samples suitable to serve as reference materials. There was, however, a significant offset between the results of MC‐ICP‐MS and SIMS. The latter deviated from the MC‐ICP‐MS results by ?6.0 ± 1.9‰ (2s) for the amphibole and by ?3.9 ± 1.9‰ (2s) for the aegirine. This indicates the presence of a significant matrix effect in SIMS determinations of Li isotopes for amphibole and pyroxene relative to the basalt glasses used for calibration. Based on the MC‐ICP‐MS results, mean δ⁷Li values of +0.7 ± 1.2‰ (2s, n = 10) for the arfvedsonite crystal and of ?3.7 ± 1.2‰ (2s, n = 7) for the core of the aegirine crystal were calculated. Adopting these values, SIMS users can correct for the specific IMF (instrumental mass fractionation) of the ion probe used. We propose that these two crystals serve as reference materials for in situ Li isotope determinations by SIMS and pieces of these two crystals are available from the first author upon request.  相似文献   

Effects due to compressional and compositional density stratification on load-induced Maxwell viscoelastic perturbations     

Detlef Wolf  & Georg Kaufmann 《Geophysical Journal International》2000,140(1):51-62

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Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model     

Iuliia Polkova  Armin Köhl  Detlef Stammer 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(11-12):3151-3169

The sensitivity of the predictive skill of a decadal climate prediction system is investigated with respect to details of the initialization procedure. For this purpose, the coupled ocean–atmosphere UCLA/MITgcm climate model is initialized using the following three different initialization approaches: full state initialization (FSI), anomaly initialization (AI) and FSI employing heat flux and freshwater flux corrections (FC). The ocean initial conditions are provided by the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate (GECCO project), from which ensembles of decadal hindcasts are initialized every 5 years from 1961 to 2001. The predictive skill for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is assessed against the GECCO synthesis. In regions with a deep mixed layer the predictive skill for SST anomalies remains significant for up to a decade in the FC experiment. By contrast, FSI shows less persistent skill in the North Atlantic and AI does not show high skill in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, but appears to be more skillful in the tropics. In the extratropics, the improved skill is related to the ability of the FC initialization method to better represent the mixed layer depth, and the highest skill occurs during wintertime. The correlation skill for the spatially averaged North Atlantic SSH hindcasts remains significant up to a decade only for FC. The North Atlantic MOC initialized hindcasts show high correlation values in the first pentad while correlation remains significant in the following pentad too for FSI and FC. Overall, for the current setup, the FC approach appears to lead to the best results, followed by the FSI and AI procedures.  相似文献   

Retrieval of the single scattering albedo of Asian dust mixed with pollutants using lidar observations     

Sungkyun SHIN  Young Min NOH  Kwonho LEE  Hanlim LEE  Detlef MLLER  Y.J.KIM  Kwanchul KIM  Dongho SHIN 《大气科学进展》2014,31(6):1417-1426

The vertical distribution of single scattering albedos （SSAs） of Asian dust mixed with pollutants was derived using the multi-wavelength Raman lidar observation system at Gwangju （35.10°N,126.53°E）.Vertical profiles of both backscatter and extinction coefficients for dust and non-dust aerosols were extracted from a mixed Asian dust plume using the depolarization ratio from lidar observations.Vertical profiles of backscatter and extinction coefficients of non-dust particles were input into an inversion algorithm to retrieve the SSAs of non-dust aerosols.Atmospheric aerosol layers at different heights had different light-absorbing characteristics.The SSAs of non-dust particles at each height varied with aerosol type,which was either urban/industrial pollutants from China transported over long distances at high altitude,or regional/local pollutants from the Korean peninsula.Taking advantage of independent profiles of SSAs of non-dust particles,vertical profiles of SSAs of Asian dust mixed with pollutants were estimated for the first time,with a new approach suggested in this study using an empirical determination of the SSA of pure dust.The SSAs of the Asian dust-pollutants mixture within the planetary boundary layer （PBL） were in the range 0.88-0.91,while the values above the PBL were in the range 0.76-0.87,with a very low mean value of 0.76 ± 0.05.The total mixed dust plume SSAs in each aerosol layer were integrated over height for comparison with results from the Aerosol Robotics Network （AERONET） measurements.Values of SSA retrieved from lidar observations of 0.92 ± 0.01 were in good agreement with the results from AERONET measurements.  相似文献   

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background,process, and future directions     

Kristie L. Ebi  Stephane Hallegatte  Tom Kram  Nigel W. Arnell  Timothy R. Carter  Jae Edmonds  Elmar Kriegler  Ritu Mathur  Brian C. O’Neill  Keywan Riahi  Harald Winkler  Detlef P. Van Vuuren  Timm Zwickel 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):363-372

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.  相似文献   

The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Elmar Kriegler  John P. Weyant  Geoffrey J. Blanford  Volker Krey  Leon Clarke  Jae Edmonds  Allen Fawcett  Gunnar Luderer  Keywan Riahi  Richard Richels  Steven K. Rose  Massimo Tavoni  Detlef P. van Vuuren 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):353-367

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance of individual mitigation options such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Limiting the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to 450 or 550 ppm CO₂ equivalent by 2100 would require a decarbonization of the global energy system in the 21^st century. Robust characteristics of the energy transformation are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy are found to be most important, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The importance of individual low-carbon electricity technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO₂e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology availability.  相似文献   

The representative concentration pathways: an overview   总被引：20，自引：4，他引：16  

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jae Edmonds  Mikiko Kainuma  Keywan Riahi  Allison Thomson  Kathy Hibbard  George C. Hurtt  Tom Kram  Volker Krey  Jean-Francois Lamarque  Toshihiko Masui  Malte Meinshausen  Nebojsa Nakicenovic  Steven J. Smith  Steven K. Rose 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):5-31

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m². The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5?×?0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.  相似文献   

RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2��C     

Detlef P. van Vuuren  Elke Stehfest  Michel G. J. den Elzen  Tom Kram  Jasper van Vliet  Sebastiaan Deetman  Morna Isaac  Kees Klein Goldewijk  Andries Hof  Angelica Mendoza Beltran  Rineke Oostenrijk  Bas van Ruijven 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):95-116

The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO₂ gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO₂ gases.  相似文献