The implementation of Bayesian structural additive regression models in multi-city time series air pollution and human health studies   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Lung-Chang Chien  Shrikant I. Bangdiwala 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(8):1041-1051

In this study, a novel Bayesian semiparametric structural additive regression (STAR) model is introduced in multi-city time series air pollution and human health studies. This modeling approach can simultaneously take into account the fixed effects, random effects, nonlinear smoothing functions and spatial functions in an integrated model framework. This study focuses on examining the powerful functionalities of this approach in modeling air pollution and mortality data of 100 U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Compared with previous studies, the modeling approach used in this study yields consistent findings of nation-level and city-level PM₁₀ (particulate matter less than 10?μm) effects on mortality. Notably, cities with significantly elevated mortality rates were concentrated in the Northeastern U.S. This modeling approach also emphasizes the important functionality of the spatial function in visualizing disease mapping. Model diagnostics were performed to confirm the availability of the STAR model. We also found consistent findings by using different hyperparameters in the sensitivity analysis. To sum up, the implementation of this modeling approach has achieved the goals of applying a spatial function and obtaining robust results in the multi-city time series air pollution and human health study.  相似文献   

Characteristics and interpretation of the seismic signal of a field-scale landslide dam failure experiment     

Yan Yan  Peng Cui  Su-chin Chen  Xiao-qing Chen  Hua-yong Chen  Yi-liang Chien 《山地科学学报》2017,14(2):219-236

Outburst floods caused by breaches of landslide dams may cause serious damages and loss of lives in downstream areas; for this reason the study of the dynamic of the process is of particular interest for hazard and risk assessment. In this paper we report a field-scale landslide dam failure experiment conducted in Nantou County, in the central of Taiwan.The seismic signal generated during the dam failure was monitored using a broadband seismometer and the signal was used to study the dam failure process.We used the short-time Fourier transform(STFT) to obtain the time–frequency characteristics of the signal and analyzed the correlation between the power spectrum density(PSD) of the signal and the water level. The results indicate that the seismic signal generated during the process consisted of three components: a low-frequency band(0–1.5 Hz), an intermediate-frequency band(1.5–10 Hz) and a highfrequency band(10–45 Hz). We obtained the characteristics of each frequency band and the variations of the signal in various stages of the landslide dam failure process. We determined the cause for the signal changes in each frequency band and its relationship with the dam failure process. The PSD sediment flux estimation model was used to interpret the causes of variations in the signal energy before the dam failure and the clockwise hysteresis during the failure. Our results show that the seismic signal reflects the physical characteristics of the landslide dam failure process. The method and equipment used in this study may be used to monitor landslide dams and providing early warnings for dam failures.  相似文献   

Ground‐motion attenuation relationship for the Sumatran megathrust earthquakes     

Kusnowidjaja Megawati  Tso‐Chien Pan 《地震工程与结构动力学》2010,39(8):827-845

A representative attenuation relationship is one of the key components required in seismic hazard assessment of a region of interest. Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and response spectral accelerations for Sumatran megathrust earthquakes, covering M_w up to 9.0, are derived based on synthetic seismograms obtained from a finite‐fault kinematic model. The relationships derived are for very hard rock site condition and for a long‐distance range between 200 and 1500 km. They are then validated with recorded data from giant earthquakes on the Sumatran megathrust occurring since year 2000. A close examination of the recorded data also shows that spectral shapes predicted by most of the existing attenuation relationships and that specified in the IBC code are not particularly suitable for sites where potential seismic hazard is dominated by large‐magnitude, distant, earthquakes. Ground motions at a remote site are typically signified by the dominance of long‐period components with periods longer than 1 s, whereas the predominant periods from most of the existing attenuation relationships and the IBC code are shorter than 0.6 s. The shifting of response spectrum towards longer period range for distant earthquakes should be carefully taken into account in the formulation of future seismic codes for Southeast Asia, where many metropolises are located far from active seismic sources. The attenuation relationship derived in the present study can properly reproduce the spectral shape from distant subduction earthquakes, and could hopefully give insights into the formulation of future seismic codes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Discussion on the Abnormally Low Active Fault Slip Rate of the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan Earthquake     

Fu Zhengxiang  Lü Xiaojian  Jin Xueshen  Dai Yinghu  Shao Huicheng  Hao Ping 《中国地震研究》2010,24(3):272-280

Based on the collection of active fault slip rate data of large intra-continental shallow thrust earthquakes occurring in the triangular seismic region of the East Asia continent,a preliminary analysis has been performed with results showing that the Wenchuan,Sichuan, China earthquake ( MS = 8. 0) of May 12,2008 occurred on the Longmenshan Mountain active fault with an abnormally low slip rate.  相似文献   

Anti-proliferative activity of phlorotannin extracts from brown algae Laminaria japonica Aresch     

杨会成  曾名湧  董士远  刘尊英  李瑞雪 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2010,(1)

In this study,we evaluated the anti-proliferative activity of phlorotannins derived from brown algae Laminaria japonica Aresch extracts on the human hepatocellular carcinoma cell (BEL-7402) and on murine leukemic cells (P388) by MTT assay.Cells were incubated with 100 μg/mL of the phlorotannin extract (PE) for 48 h.The inhibitory rate of PE on BEL-7402 and P388 cells was 30.20±1.16% and 43.44±1.86%,respectively,and the half-inhibitory concentration of PE (IC50) on P388 and BEL-7402 cells was 120 μg/mL and >...  相似文献   

Anti-proliferative activity of phlorotannin extracts from brown algae Laminaria japonica Aresch     

杨会成  曾名湧  董士远  刘尊英  李瑞雪 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2010,28(1):122-130

In this study, we evaluated the anti-proliferative activity of phlorotannins derived from brown algae Laminaria japonica Aresch extracts on the human hepatocellular carcinoma cell (BEL-7402) and on murine leukemic cells (P388) by MTT assay. Cells were incubated with 100 μg/mL of the phlorotannin extract (PE) for 48 h. The inhibitory rate of PE on BEL-7402 and P388 cells was 30.20±1.16% and 43.44±1.86%, respectively, and the half-inhibitory concentration of PE (IC₅₀) on P388 and BEL-7402 cells was 120 μg/mL and >200 μg/mL, respectively. Microscopic observation shows that the morphologic features of tumor cells treated with PE and 5-fluorouracil are markedly different from the normal control group. The inhibitory rate of fraction A₂ isolated from PE by sephadex LH-20 for BEL-7402 and P388 cells at the sample concentration of 70.42 μg/mL was 61.96±7.02% and 40.47±8.70%, respectively. The apoptosis peak for fraction A₂ was the most profound of all fractions used in the flow cytometry assay. The results indicate that the anti-proliferative of this algal extract is associated with the total phlorotannin content.  相似文献   

强地震前乾陵台地倾斜短临暂态异常图像特征研究     

张创军  邵辉成  孙寿安  路小建 《高原地震》2010,22(2):15-19,31

系统整理分析了1983—2008年乾陵台地倾斜仪记录到的暂态异常图像,发现其与周围4000km以内6．5级以上强震有一定的对应关系。异常图像以渐变、突变阶跃、畸变及脉动为主要特征,异常出现时间为震前0-40天,主要集中在震前4天。  相似文献   

Evaluation of the response modification coefficient and collapse potential of special concentrically braced frames   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Po‐Chien Hsiao  Dawn E. Lehman  Charles W. Roeder 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(10):1547-1564

Special concentrically braced frames (SCBFs) are commonly used for seismic design of buildings. Their large elastic stiffness and strength efficiently sustains the seismic demands during smaller, more frequent earthquakes. During large, infrequent earthquakes, SCBFs exhibit highly nonlinear behavior due to brace buckling and yielding and the inelastic behavior induced by secondary deformation of the framing system. These response modes reduce the system demands relative to an elastic system without supplemental damping using a response modification coefficient, commonly termed the R factor. More recently, procedures put forth in FEMAP695 have been made to quantify the R factor through a formalized procedure that accounts for collapse potential. The primary objective of the research in this paper was to evaluate the approach for SCBFs. An improved model for SCBFs that permits simulation of brace fracture was used to conduct response history analyses. A series of three‐story, nine‐story and 20‐story SCBFs were designed and evaluated. Initially, the FEMAP695 method was conducted to estimate collapse and the corresponding R factor. An alternate procedure for scaling the multiple acceleration records to the seismic design hazard was also evaluated. The results show significant variation between the two methods. Of the three variations of buildings studied, the largest vulnerability was identified for the three‐story building. To achieve a consistent margin of safety against collapse, a significantly lower R factor is required for the low‐rise SCBFs (three‐story), whereas the mid‐rise and high‐rise SCBFs (nine‐story and 20‐story) may continue to use the current value of 6, as provided in ASCE‐07. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

陕西地区地震动衰减关系研究     

范文  杜文和  王晓军  邵辉成  文毅 《地震工程与工程振动》2011,31(2):47-54

通过分析陕西省丰富的地震活动资料,包括鲜明的地震活动与震害分布的地域性特点以及地震地质环境特点,将陕西省分为三个分区,来进行地震动衰减关系的研究.研究内容主要包括地震烈度衰减关系和基岩地震动衰减关系.选择美国西部作为参考区,三个分区分别作为研究区,采用可逆法进行映射转换计算,得到了三个分区的基岩地震动衰减关系,在转换过...  相似文献   

Assessment on agricultural drought risk based on variable fuzzy sets model   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

Dan Zhang  Guoli Wang  Huicheng Zhou 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2011,21(2):167-175

Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was established according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respectively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combination weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the assessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.  相似文献