热带气旋"凤凰"（2014）的结构演变及其引起的海洋响应分析     

刘甫  明杰  张翰  田娣 《热带气象学报》2020,36(4):552-561

利用日本多功能运输卫星（Multi-functional Transport Satellite,简称为MTSAT-2）逐小时云顶亮温资料、Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique（CMORPH）逐3小时降水资料及南海北部的现场观测资料,对2014年第16号热带气旋"凤凰"的结构演变和远距离洋面上的海洋响应特征进行了研究。结果表明:高空环流形势场的变化主导了"凤凰"的移动方向,调整其云系结构;"凤凰"过境期间测站处气压和气温明显下降,风速和相对湿度有所增加,并伴随有多次阵性降雨过程,最大降雨量可达174 mm/h;"凤凰"引起的强混合的热泵作用导致测站处海洋混合层冷却加深,三个站位观测到的最大海表面降温分别为0.53 ℃（站位2）、0.50 ℃（站位4）、1.18 ℃（站位5）;"凤凰"期间海表面盐度下降,且强降盐过程与降水时段具有较好的时间一致性,降水时段内,三个站位观测到的表层最大降盐量分别为0.557 psu（站位2）、0.407 psu（站位4）、0.773 psu（站位5）。   相似文献   

Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hee-Jeong Baek  Johan Lee  Hyo-Shin Lee  Yu-Kyung Hyun  ChunHo Cho  Won-Tae Kwon  Charline Marzin  Sun-Yeong Gan  Min-Ji Kim  Da-Hee Choi  Jonghwa Lee  Jaeho Lee  Kyung-On Boo  Hyun-Suk Kang  Young-Hwa Byun 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(5):603-618

We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1°C/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4°C/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5°C/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1°C/+4.6% for RCP8.5, respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3°C between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.  相似文献   

世界各国静止气象卫星发展综述     

何兴伟  冯小虎  韩琦  康宁  郭强  彭艺 《气象科学进展》2020,10(1):22-29,41

首先阐述了美国、欧洲气象卫星组织(EUMETSAT)、日本静止气象卫星的发展历史,从自旋稳定到三轴稳定,从单一载荷到多载荷并行工作,新一代的静止气象卫星的时间、空间和光谱分辨率都大幅提高,然后重点介绍了我国静止气象卫星风云二号和风云四号,相比于自旋稳定的风云二号气象卫星,风云四号卫星的功能和性能实现了跨越式的发展,接着简单介绍了俄罗斯、印度和韩国等其他国家静止气象卫星的发展状况,最后总结了不同时期各国静止气象卫星的发展特点,这对我国后续静止气象卫星的规划和研制有重要参考意义。  相似文献   

樟树市气象干旱特征及重现期分析          下载免费PDF全文

刘喆玥  韩会明  赖亮  杨立苑  徐全倩 《气象与减灾研究》2020,43(2):117-122

利用樟树市1960—2018年逐月降水和气温资料,计算标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）,并结合游程理论和Copula函数分析了该地区干旱特征。结果表明：樟树市干旱形势总体上趋于缓和,干旱历时和干旱烈度均呈减弱趋势,且呈现出良好的相关性;Frank-Copula函数可作为描述该地区干旱历时和干旱烈度的二维联合分布最优函数;在相同干旱历时和烈度下,“且”的重现期大于“或”的重现期,樟树市历史干旱事件的干旱历时多小于5个月,“且”的重现期小于10 a。  相似文献   

Influence d'un changement climatique dû à une hausse de gaz à effet de serre sur l'agriculture au quebec     

Bhawan Singh  Mustapha El Maayar  Pierre André  Jean‐Pierre Thouez  Christopher Bryant  Denis Provençal 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):379-399

Abstract

This study, using a climate change scenario generated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM) examines the impacts of such a climate change on agriculture in southern Quebec. Using a crop model from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), yield responses of a variety of cereals, legumes, oleaginous and special crops to climate change are analysed and discussed.

Results show that under the 2 × CO₂ climate scenario the growing season would be longer and accumulation of corn heat units and growing degree days would be more important than under actual climate (1961–1990). One of the more important results of this study is that, on the one hand yield of C₃ cereals would be lower and that of C₄ cereals higher in most agricultural regions. On the other hand, the direct fertilisation effect of increased CO₂ is not considered. It must be cautioned however that we can not generalise results obtained for one legume crop to all legumes.  相似文献   

A complementary depiction of the interannual variation of atmospheric circulation associated with ENSO events: Research note     

Tsing‐Chang Chen  Ming‐Cheng Yen  James Pfaendtner  Y.C. Sud 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):417-433

Abstract

A simple diagnostic scheme, which combines a low‐pass temporal filter (with an 18‐month cutoff time) with a regular empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, is used to delineate the synchronous evolution of El Nino‐Southern Oscillation‐related (ENSO‐related) modes in various variables of the ocean‐atmosphere system. Based on the causal relation chain of diabatic heating, divergent circulation and rotational flow, the diagnostic scheme extracts ENSO modes from the following data sources: the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the past 14‐years (1979–1992) of data generated by the Global Data Assimilation System of the National Meteorological Center, and a 10‐year (1979–1988) general circulation model climate simulation made at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The analysis reveals the following: (a) the eigencoefficient time series of the first eigenmodes of selected filtered variables, which explain about 40–50% of their total variance, synchronize with the filtered SST averaged over Area NINO‐3; (b) the spatial structures of the first eigenmodes resemble the ensemble departures associated with ENSO events of these variables from their long term means; and (c) the results show that the proposed scheme can be easily applied to isolate and illustrate the time evolution of ENSO modes which exist in the long term observational database as well as in climate simulations.  相似文献   

Seasonal climatology of cloud at resolute (75°N)     

A. Henderson‐Sellers  K. McGuffie  J.G. Cogley 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):80-93

Abstract

An analysis of surface observations of cloud characteristics from a selected high‐latitude station, Resolute (N.W.T., Canada), is described. The data set has a high temporal resolution (1 h) and is extensive although here we report only on an analysis of 10 years: 1970–1979, inclusive. The pattern of cloudiness variations is more complex than previous studies of Arctic data have suggested. The predominant reported low‐level cloud type is stratocumulus, not stratus. The generally overcast summer conditions are found to extend over a considerable period when cloud cover is composed of several layers, often of types other than stratus. This observation of multilayering suggests that middle and high cloud layers may occur more frequently than they can be observed. Clearly a more accurate awareness of hidden cloud is important for improving solutions of the planetary radiation budget. The surface radiation budget is found to be strongly affected by the development of the summertime overcast but also exhibits features caused by the mid‐summer break‐up of the lower cloud layer.  相似文献   

Permafrost hydrology in North America 1     

Ming‐ko Woo 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):201-234

Abstract

This paper reviews hydrologic processes in the permafrost regions of northern North America. Much work has recently been done at specific experimental plots to parallel the progress in laboratory investigations, improving our understanding of the heat and water fluxes in thawed and frozen grounds, infiltration in frozen soils, evaporation in a cold environment, interaction between snow and its frozen substrate, and the dynamics of storage in the active layer. Field research on permafrost slopes and in northern research basins adds to our knowledge of permafrost groundwater hydrology, runoff generating processes, river freeze‐up and breakup processes and allows more precise definition of basin water balance. Sufficient hydrometric data are now available to analyse the streamflow characteristics in an area with permafrost, and more work should be done along this line. It is urged that process studies be continued to gain a better understanding of the effect of permafrost upon the hydrologic cycle. Further research is needed to predict the impacts of human activities on the movement and redistribution of water.  相似文献   

Climate and climate change in western canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model     

Rene Laprise  Daniel Caya  Michel Giguere  Guy Bergeron  Hélène Côté  Jean‐Pierre Blanchet 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):119-167

Abstract

A þrst climate simulation performed with the novel Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The CRCM is based on fully elastic non‐hydrostatic þeld equations, which are solved with an efþcient semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian (SISL) marching algorithm, and on the parametrization package of subgrid‐scale physical effects of the second‐generation Canadian Global Climate Model (GCMII). Two 5‐year integrations of the CRCM nested with GCMII simulated data as lateral boundary conditions are made for conditions corresponding to current and doubled CO₂ scenarios. For these simulations the CRCM used a grid size of 45 km on a polar‐stereographic projection, 20 scaled‐height levels and a time step of 15 min; the nesting GCMII has a spectral truncation of T32, 10 hybrid‐pressure levels and a time step of 20 min. These simulations serve to document: (1) the suitability of the SISL numerical scheme for regional climate modelling, (2) the use of GCMII physics at much higher resolution than in the nesting model, (3) the ability of the CRCM to add realistic regional‐scale climate information to global model simulations, and (4) the climate of the CRCM compared to that of GCMII under two greenhouse gases (GHG) scenarios.  相似文献   

SWAN雷达产品在甘肃河东地区冰雹短临预报中的应用     

傅朝  闫晗  刘维成  宋琳琳 《干旱气象》2013,(1):199-205

选取2011年7月发生在甘肃省河东地区的7次冰雹个例,综合分析SWAN系统输出的雷达产品资料的主要特征,提取冰雹天气的雷达产品资料的指标,根据这些指标利用SWAN系统外推算法资料生成冰雹临近预报产品。通过2012年甘肃河东地区的2次冰雹天气过程对与其同时的临近预报产品检验结果表明,预报效果良好,具有较高的业务应用价值。  相似文献