Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products—a multi-model ensemble for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea     

Inga Golbeck  Xin Li  Frank Janssen  Thorger Brüning  Jacob W. Nielsen  Vibeke Huess  Johan Söderkvist  Bjarne Büchmann  Simo-Matti Siiriä  Olga Vähä-Piikkiö  Bruce Hackett  Nils M. Kristensen  Harald Engedahl  Ed Blockley  Alistair Sellar  Priidik Lagemaa  Jose Ozer  Sebastien Legrand  Patrik Ljungemyr  Lars Axell 《Ocean Dynamics》2015,65(12):1603-1631

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Erratum to: Assessment of coastal communities’ vulnerability to floods using indicator-based approach: a case study of Greater Accra Metropolitan Area,Ghana     

Paul William Kojo Yankson  Alex Barimah Owusu  George Owusu  John Boakye-Danquah  Jacob Doku Tetteh 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(2):691-707

In this paper, the extent to which the potentially transit-dependent portion of the population is vulnerable to the effects of a hurricane is estimated. The vulnerability of an area is defined as a composite measure of the proportion of disadvantaged persons, distance to transit, and flooding potential of people within an area. Unlike past studies which have focused on the vulnerability of the population in relatively large geographic areas, this study estimates the vulnerability of the population in 30 m × 30 m areas as defined in the National Land Cover Database. Population estimates from the national census at block level are disaggregated to the 30 m × 30 m units using a modified dasymetric mapping method in ArcGIS. The modified mapping method assigns population to each small areal unit using weights estimated by regressing the area of each land use in a census block against the population in that block. The coefficients in the regression analysis are “weights” associating population with each land use, and are used to distribute the population in each census block to the small geographic units based on their land use. In a case study of New Orleans, the results show that some areas are not well served by the existing transit pickup locations, as evidenced by their high vulnerability scores. Reassignment of pickup point locations to cover higher vulnerability score areas was investigated using integer linear programming. The results show that the optimally located pickup points serve areas with a larger average vulnerability score than the current pickup points in the study area. The method appears to be helpful in identifying vulnerable areas that, subsequently, could receive improved hurricane evacuation service in the future.  相似文献   

Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology: analysis of Christchurch Public Hospital video data from the 22 February Christchurch earthquake event     

Emily S. Lambie  Thomas M. Wilson  Erik Brogt  David M. Johnston  Michael Ardagh  Joanne Deely  Steven Jensen  Shirley Feldmann-Jensen 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1175-1192

Earthquake epidemiological research indicates that the behavioural response influences the nature and severity of injuries sustained. However, there is no observational evidence of the actions individuals engage in during and immediately following earthquake shaking, and the context in which earthquake injuries and deaths are caused. Closed Circuit Television Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology has been developed as a tool to classify human behaviour during and immediately following earthquake shaking using real event video data. The coding methodology was applied to security video data captured during the 22 February 2011 M_w6.3 ‘Christchurch’ earthquake event from the Christchurch Public Hospital which experienced shaking intensity of MM9 lasting approximately 12–15 s. We applied this coding methodology to determine: demography, trans-event behavioural responses, post-event behavioural responses, influence of social context on behaviour, and influence of behaviour on injuries. A total of 213 individuals from 31 different camera views were analysed. Sixty-six per cent of the individuals were adult-aged females. The primary trans-event responses were to hold (26%) onto furniture, walls, and/or other people close to them and to look around (30%). No individuals were observed to perform all ‘Drop, Cover, Hold’ actions, the recommended action during strong earthquake shaking in New Zealand. Post-event behaviour included: running, walking, providing assistance, moving towards others, visual communication, and some individuals gave instructions. Social contextual behaviour varied depending on the role of the adult. There were no serious injuries linked to behaviour. The results of this initial study indicate the coding methodology can record the distribution of and variation in human behaviours. Therefore, objective observation of earthquake video data can provide a useful quantitative measure of human behaviour. Significantly, the process will enable researchers to look more closely at behaviours, as well as the social and physical contexts associated with injury risk during and immediately following earthquake shaking.  相似文献   

Homogeneous nucleation of amorphous solid water particles in the upper mesosphere     

Benjamin J. Murray  Eric J. Jensen 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(1):51-61

Condensed water particles are known to exist in the high latitude upper mesosphere during the summer months. However, the mechanism or mechanisms through which they nucleate remains uncertain. It is postulated here that particles of amorphous solid water (ASW, condensed water with a non-crystalline structure) may nucleate homogeneously in the summer mesosphere. Using classical nucleation theory and a one-dimensional model, it is shown that more than 10⁵ cm^?3 amorphous solid water particles can nucleate homogeneously under mesopause conditions. Furthermore, it is shown that homogeneous nucleation competes with heterogeneous nucleation on meteoric smoke particles when the cooling rate is >0.5 K/h. The homogeneous nucleation of amorphous solid water could provide an explanation for the high density of ice particles (many thousands per cm³) thought to be required for electron depletions in the upper mesosphere. A parameterisation for homogeneous nucleation is presented which can be used in other mesospheric cloud models.  相似文献   

The influence of solar‐induced thermal stresses on the mechanical weathering of rocks in humid mid‐latitudes          下载免费PDF全文

Jennifer Aldred  Martha Cary Eppes  Kimberly Aquino  Rebecca Deal  Jacob Garbini  Suraj Swami  Alea Tuttle  George Xanthos 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(5):603-614

The role of solar‐induced thermal stresses in the mechanical breakdown of rock in humid‐temperate climates has remained relatively unexplored. In contrast, numerous studies have demonstrated that cracks in rocks found in more arid mid‐latitude locations exhibit preferred northeast orientations that are interpreted to be a consequence of insolation‐related cracking. Here we hypothesize that similar insolation‐related mechanisms may be efficacious in humid temperate climates, possibly in conjunction with other mechanical weathering processes. To test this hypothesis, we collected rock and crack data from a total of 310 rocks at a forested field site in North Carolina (99 rocks, 266 cracks) and at forested and unforested field sites in Pennsylvania (211 rocks, 664 cracks) in the eastern United States. We find that overall, measured cracks exhibit statistically preferred strike orientations (47° ± 16), as well as dip angles (52° ± 24°), that are similar in most respects to comparable datasets from mid‐latitude deserts. There is less variance in strike orientations for larger cracks suggesting that cracks with certain orientations are preferentially propagated through time. We propose that diurnally repeating geometries of solar‐related stresses result in propagation of those cracks whose orientations are favorably oriented with respect to those stresses. We hypothesize that the result is an oriented rock heterogeneity that acts as a zone of weakness much like bedding or foliation that can, in turn, be exploited by other weathering processes. Observed crack orientations vary somewhat by location, consistent with this hypothesis given the different latitude and solar exposure of the field sites. Crack densities vary between field sites and are generally higher on north‐facing boulder‐faces and in forested sites, suggesting that moisture‐availability also plays a role in dictating cracking rates. These data provide evidence that solar‐induced thermal stresses facilitate mechanical weathering in environments where other processes are also likely at play. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Return to <Emphasis Type="Italic">Neverland</Emphasis>: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets     

Carlos M. Duarte  Daniel J. Conley  Jacob Carstensen  María Sánchez-Camacho 《Estuaries and Coasts》2009,32(1):29-36

The implicit assumption of many scientific and regulatory frameworks that ecosystems impacted by human pressures may be reverted to their original condition by suppressing the pressure was tested using coastal eutrophication. The response to nutrient abatement of four thoroughly studied coastal ecosystems that received increased nutrient inputs between the 1970s and the 1980s showed that the trajectories of these ecosystems were not directly reversible. All four ecosystems displayed convoluted trajectories that failed to return to the reference status upon nutrient reduction. This failure is proposed to result from the broad changes in environmental conditions, all affecting ecosystem dynamics, that occurred over the 30 years spanning from the onset of eutrophication to the reduction of nutrient levels. Understanding ecosystem response to multiple shifting baselines is essential to set reliable targets for restoration efforts.  相似文献   

Integrated Interpretation of Interwell Connectivity Using Injection and Production Fluctuations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ali A. Yousef  Jerry L. Jensen  Larry W. Lake 《Mathematical Geosciences》2009,41(1):81-102

A method to characterize reservoirs, based on matching temporal fluctuations in injection and production rates, has recently been developed. The method produces two coefficients for each injector–producer pair; one parameter, λ, quantifies the connectivity and the other, τ, quantifies the fluid storage in the vicinity of the pair. Previous analyses used λ and τ separately to infer the presence of transmissibility barriers and conduits in the reservoir, but several common conditions could not be easily distinguished. This paper describes how λ and τ can be jointly interpreted to enhance inference about preferential transmissibility trends and barriers. Two different combinations are useful: one is a plot of log (λ) versus log (τ) for a producer and nearby injectors, and the second is a Lorenz-style flow capacity (F) versus storativity (C) plot. These techniques were tested against the results of a numerical simulator and applied to data from the North Buck Draw field. Using the simulated data, we find that the F–C plots and the λ–τ plots are capable of identifying whether the connectivity of an injector–producer well pair is through fractures, a high-permeability layer, multiple-layers or through partially completed wells. Analysis of data from the North Buck Draw field shows a reasonable correspondence between τ and the tracer breakthrough times. Of two possible geological models for Buck Draw, the F–C and λ–τ plots support the model that has less connectivity in the field. The wells in fluvial deposits show better communication than those wells in more estuarine-dominated regions.  相似文献   

Kandidater udgået fra Københavns Universitets Geografiske Institut 1966–71     

Viggo Hansen  Niels Nielsen  Ruth Helkiær Jensen  Kaf Hansen  Kaj Hansen  Johannes Krüger 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(1):91-100

Christensen, Leif: Faststående og omlejrede Saale-morånelersaflejringer. Et eksempel fra Szdding-området, Vestjylland. Geografisk Tidsskrift 82: 91–94. Copenhagen, Dec. 1, 1982.

In situ clayey till materials on the Skovbjerg Bakkea, western Jutland can be recognized by crop-marks revealing pseudomorphs of ice-wedge polygons in orthogonal, random orthogonal and hexagonal patterns. The tills inside these polygonal patterns have high shear-strength values as measured by vane tests. Remoulded fossil solifluction deposits of till origin reveal stripes and deformed polygonal patterns in the crops. High strength as measured by vane are encountered below fossil solifluction deposits 4 meters below ground.  相似文献   

Anmeldelser     

Niels Nielsen  Viggo Hansen  Kaj Hansen  Kr. M. Jensen  Sten Folving  Sofus Christiansen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(1):101-118

Meyer, Marlene: Settlement Patterns and Land-use in Northern Ghana—A Study of the Changes during the period 1963–1991 based on Historical Surveys and recent SPOT-images. Geografisk Tidsskrift 92:101–104. Copenhagen 1992.

A study by Hunter (1966) describes how large areas along the Red Volta River bank, have been abandoned due to river blindness. The mapping of current land-use status and settlements patterns, using multispectral SPOT-satellite images, shows how the border of settlements continue to retreat, whereas new land is being reclaimed for bush fields in the abandoned areas.  相似文献   

Recent marginal changes of the Mittivakkat Glacier,Southeast Greenland and the discovery of remains of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and peaty material     

N. Tvis Knudsen  P. Nørnberg  Jacob C. Yde  Bent Hasholt  Jan Heinemeier 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(1):137-142

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 108(1):137–142, 2008

During field observations in August 2005 antler remains of a reindeer were found at a recently deglaciated site at about 500 m asl., and bones from a polar bear were found at about 300 m asl. along the margin of Mittivakkat Glacier, Southeast Greenland. Radio carbon dating determined the age of the samples to 720 ¹⁴C years and 350 ¹⁴C years, respectively. In August 2006 old surface vegetation covering peaty material became exposed due to ice recession close to the site where the antler was found. The radio carbon age of small roots from the material was determined to 1530 ¹⁴C years, and is in agreement with dating of woody remains of Salix glauca found close by, at the top of a nearby nunatak in 1999. The antler indicates that reindeer lived in the area when the glacier began to advance from a position where it was close to or smaller than today. The vegetation surface and peaty material indicate that the climate was warmer before the onset of the Little Ice Age in Southeast Greenland than today.  相似文献