The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems     

Dáithí Stone  Maximilian Auffhammer  Mark Carey  Gerrit Hansen  Christian Huggel  Wolfgang Cramer  David Lobell  Ulf Molau  Andrew Solow  Lourdes Tibig  Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):381-395

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.  相似文献   

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?     

Xavier Rodó  Mercedes Pascual  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Alexander Gershunov  Dáithí A. Stone  Filippo Giorgi  Peter J. Hudson  James Kinter  Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias  Nils Ch. Stenseth  David Alonso  Javier García-Serrano  Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.  相似文献   

Capital,the state and rural land holdings: the example of the pastoral industry in the Northern Territory     

Jim Rawling 《The Australian geographer》1987,18(1):23-32

Large capital interests have a long history of ownership of rural land in Australia. There have been many changes in this kind of ownership in recent decades. The rationale for various forms of ownership of large leasehold areas in the Northern Territory is presented. New financial structures operating in local and international capital markets and the opportunities presented by the state are important parts of this rationale.  相似文献   

Observing Magnetic Fields in Star-Forming Regions     

Jim Cohen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2005,295(1-2):27-36

Magnetic field strengths and directions can be estimated using many different observational techniques that span a wide range of wavelengths. Each observational method favours different regimes of scale size, density and other physical conditions. The available techniques and their ranges of applicability are briefly described and the current status of observations is reviewed, with particular emphasis on high-resolution observations of star-forming regions.  相似文献   

Dimensions and deglacial chronology of the Outer Hebrides Ice Cap,northwest Scotland: implications of cosmic ray exposure dating     

John O. Stone  Colin K. Ballantyne 《第四纪科学杂志》2006,21(1):75-84

Cosmic ray exposure ages of frost-weathered bedrock from mountain summits in the Outer Hebrides exceed the age of Late Devensian glaciation. Exposure ages of most glacially-abraded bedrock surfaces at low and intermediate elevations are younger than the age of maximum Late Devensian glaciation. These results confirm that previously mapped periglacial trimlines in the Outer Hebrides define the upper limit of bedrock erosion by Late Devensian ice. They are consistent with the interpretation, based on geomorphological evidence, that the trimlines mark the approximate upper limit of a Late Devensian Outer Hebrides Ice Cap. A postglacial exposure age from the summit of Oreval (662 m) suggests that this mountain was overrun during the last glaciation, indicating thicker ice cover and a lower surface gradient west of the ice-cap divide than previously inferred. Although bedrock surfaces below the trimlines are strongly ice-moulded, some show evidence of prior cosmic ray exposure, which we attribute to limited erosion during Late Devensian glaciation. If this interpretation is correct, the youngest apparent ages from these surfaces give the most reliable dates for deglaciation, at ca. 14.5–14 ka. This implies that ice persisted at favourable sites through the warm opening phase of the Windermere Interstade. Comparison with radiocarbon-dated evidence from offshore cores suggests net ice margin retreat of ∼74 km eastwards across the adjacent shelf in > 2.3 ± 1.0 ka. The dating evidence is consistent with relatively rapid retreat of calving margins to the coast, then slower withdrawal of ice margins to high ground. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Handling uncertainty in extreme or unrepeatable hydrological processes—the need for an alternative paradigm     

Jim Hall  Malcolm Anderson 《水文研究》2002,16(9):1867-1870

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Active solar radio regions at metric frequencies and the interplanetary sector structures     

Kunitomo Sakurai  Robert G. Stone 《Solar physics》1971,19(1):247-256

The possible relation between type I noise active regions and the polarity distribution of the interplanetary magnetic field is examined for the period from 13 March to 21 August, 1968 (Solar Rotation Numbers 1842–1847) by using data from ground-based and satellite observations. In general four type I radio regions appeared during each solar rotation period except for Rotation No. 1842. The number of type I regions is the same as the number of sector boundaries. This result suggests that the configuration of the photospheric magnetic field extending into the interplanetary space may be related to the origin of the type I radio regions. Statistically the passage of the sector boundaries is delayed by approximately 5 days after the central meridian passage of the type I noise regions on the solar disk.The position of the source of the sector boundaries and its relation to the type I radio regions are investigated by taking into account the mean bulk velocity of solar winds as observed by space probes. A model of the large-scale structure of type I radio regions and their relation to the sector structure of the magnetic field as observed in the interplanetary space is briefly discussed.NASA Research Associate at the University of Maryland.  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene outburst flooding from pluvial Lake Alvord into the Owyhee River, Oregon   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Deron T. Carter  Lisa L. Ely  Jim E. O'Connor  Cassandra R. Fenton 《Geomorphology》2006,75(3-4):346

At least one large, late Pleistocene flood traveled into the Owyhee River as a result of a rise and subsequent outburst from pluvial Lake Alvord in southeastern Oregon. Lake Alvord breached Big Sand Gap in its eastern rim after reaching an elevation of 1292 m, releasing 11.3 km³ of water into the adjacent Coyote Basin as it eroded the Big Sand Gap outlet channel to an elevation of about 1280 m. The outflow filled and then spilled out of Coyote Basin through two outlets at 1278 m and into Crooked Creek drainage, ultimately flowing into the Owyhee and Snake Rivers. Along Crooked Creek, the resulting flood eroded canyons, stripped bedrock surfaces, and deposited numerous boulder bars containing imbricated clasts up to 4.1 m in diameter, some of which are located over 30 m above the present-day channel.Critical depth calculations at Big Sand Gap show that maximum outflow from a 1292- to 1280-m drop in Lake Alvord was  10,000 m³ s^− 1. Flooding became confined to a single channel approximately 40 km downstream of Big Sand Gap, where step-backwater calculations show that a much larger peak discharge of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 is required to match the highest geologic evidence of the flood in this channel. This inconsistency can be explained by (1) a single 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood that caused at least 13 m of vertical incision in the channel (hence enlarging the channel cross-section); (2) multiple floods of 10,000 m³ s^− 1 or less, each producing some incision of the channel; or (3) an earlier flood of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 creating the highest flood deposits and crossed drainage divides observed along Crooked Creek drainage, followed by a later 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood associated with the most recent shorelines in Alvord and Coyote Basins.Well-developed shorelines of Lake Alvord at 1280 m and in Coyote Basin at 1278 m suggest that after the initial flood, postflood overflow persisted for an extended period, connecting Alvord and Coyote Basins with the Owyhee River of the Columbia River drainage. Surficial weathering characteristics and planktonic freshwater diatoms in Lake Alvord sediment stratigraphically below Mt. St. Helens set Sg tephra, suggest deep open-basin conditions at  13–14 ka (¹⁴C yr) and that the flood and prominent shorelines date to about this time. But geomorphic and sedimentological evidence also show that Alvord and Coyote Basins held older, higher-elevation lakes that may have released earlier floods down Crooked Creek.  相似文献   

利用遥感技术建立墨西哥热带地上生物量模型(英文)     

AGUIRRE-SALADO Carlos Arturo  TREVIO-GARZA Eduardo Javier  AGUIRRE-CALDERóN Oscar Alberto  JIMéNEZ-PéREZ Javier  GONZáLEZ-TAGLE Marco Aurelio  VALDEZ-LAZALDE José René  MIRANDA-ARAGóN Liliana  AGUIRRE-SALADO Alejandro Iván 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(4):669-680

Spatially-explicit estimation of aboveground biomass(AGB) plays an important role to generate action policies focused in climate change mitigation,since carbon(C) retained in the biomass is vital for regulating Earth’s temperature.This work estimates AGB using both chlorophyll(red,near infrared) and moisture(middle infrared) based normalized vegetation indices constructed with MCD43A4 MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and MOD44B vegetation continuous fields(VCF) data.The study area is located in San Luis Potosí,Mexico,a region that comprises a part of the upper limit of the intertropical zone.AGB estimations were made using both individual tree data from the National Forest Inventory of Mexico and allometric equations reported in scientific literature.Linear and nonlinear(expo-nential) models were fitted to find their predictive potential when using satellite spectral data as explanatory variables.Highly-significant correlations(p = 0.01) were found between all the explaining variables tested.NDVI62,linked to chlorophyll content and moisture stress,showed the highest correlation.The best model(nonlinear) showed an index of fit(Pseudo-r2) equal to 0.77 and a root mean square error equal to 26.00 Mg/ha using NDVI62 and VCF as explanatory variables.Validation correlation coefficients were similar for both models:lin-ear(r = 0.87**) and nonlinear(r = 0.86**).  相似文献   

A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types     

Juan Andrés García-Valero  Juan Pedro Montavez  Sonia Jerez  Juan José Gómez-Navarro  Raquel Lorente-Plazas  Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):291-310

A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.  相似文献