A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory—part I: the area source model     

Karin Sesetyan  Mine B. Demircioglu  Tamer Y. Duman  Tolga Çan  Senem Tekin  Tuba Eroğlu Azak  Özge Zülfikar Fercan 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3367-3397

The seismic zoning map of Turkey that is used in connection with the national seismic design code (versions issued both in 1997 and 2007) is based on a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted more than 20 years ago (Gülkan et al. in En son verilere göre haz?rlanan Türkiye deprem bölgeleri haritas?, Report No: METU/EERC 93-1, 1993). In line with the efforts for the update of the seismic design code, the need aroused for an updated seismic hazard map, incorporating recent data and state-of-the-art methodologies and providing ground motion parameters required for the construction of the design spectra stipulated by the new Turkish Earthquake Design Code. Supported by AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey), a project has been conducted for the country scale assessment of the seismic hazard by probabilistic methods. The present paper describes the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted in connection with this project, incorporating in an area source model, all recently compiled data on seismicity and active faulting, and using a set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations, for both active shallow crustal and subduction regimes, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region. The area sources delineated in the model are fully parameterized in terms of maximum magnitude, depth distribution, predominant strike and dip angles and mechanism of possible ruptures. Resulting ground motion distributions are quantified and presented for PGA and 5 % damped spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 and 1.0 s, associated with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The full set of seismic hazard curves was also made available for the hazard computation sites. The second part of the study, which is based on a fault source and smoothed seismicity model is covered in Demircioglu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, (2016).  相似文献   

Understanding heterogeneity in metropolitan India: The added value of remote sensing data for analyzing sub-standard residential areas     

Isa Baud  Monika Kuffer  Karin Pfeffer  Richard Sliuzas  Sadasivam Karuppannan 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

Analyzing the heterogeneity in metropolitan areas of India utilizing remote sensing data can help to identify more precise patterns of sub-standard residential areas. Earlier work analyzing inequalities in Indian cities employed a constructed index of multiple deprivations (IMDs) utilizing data from the Census of India 2001 (http://censusindia.gov.in). While that index, described in an earlier paper, provided a first approach to identify heterogeneity at the citywide scale, it neither provided information on spatial variations within the geographical boundaries of the Census database, nor about physical characteristics, such as green spaces and the variation in housing density and quality. In this article, we analyze whether different types of sub-standard residential areas can be identified through remote sensing data, combined, where relevant, with ground-truthing and local knowledge. The specific questions address: (1) the extent to which types of residential sub-standard areas can be drawn from remote sensing data, based on patterns of green space, structure of layout, density of built-up areas, size of buildings and other site characteristics; (2) the spatial diversity of these residential types for selected electoral wards; and (3) the correlation between different types of sub-standard residential areas and the results of the index of multiple deprivations utilized at electoral ward level found previously.  相似文献   

Organotin accumulation in an estuarine food chain: comparing field measurements with model estimations     

Veltman K  Huijbregts MA  van den Heuvel-Greve MJ  Vethaak AD  Hendriks AJ 《Marine environmental research》2006,61(5):511-530

The bioaccumulation model OMEGA (optimal modelling for ecotoxicological applications) is used to explore accumulation of organotins in the Western Scheldt food chain, consisting of herbi-detritivores, primary and secondary carnivorous fish and a piscivorous bird. Organotins studied are tributyltin (TBT) and triphenyltin (TPT) and the respective di- and mono-organotin metabolites. Empirical elimination rate constants are compared to model predictions for organic substances and metals. It is found that field bioaccumulation ratios are higher than predicted based on elimination kinetics relevant for organic compounds. The results indicate that uptake of organotins mainly occurs via hydrophobic mechanisms, whereas elimination may occur via metal-like kinetics. This results in very low elimination rates, which are comparable to model predictions for metals.  相似文献   

Application of the weight-of-evidence approach to assess the decline of brown trout (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmo trutta</Emphasis>) in Swiss rivers     

Patricia Burkhardt-Holm  Karin Scheurer 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2007,69(1):51-70

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Accumulation of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in estuarine and marine food chains: field measurements and model calculations     

Veltman K  Hendriks J  Huijbregts M  Leonards P  van den Heuvel-Greve M  Vethaak D 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(10):1085-1102

Food chain accumulation of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in estuarine and marine environments is compared to model estimations and fresh water field data. The food chain consists of herbivores, detritivores and primary and secondary carnivores i.e. fish, fish-eating birds and marine mammals. Accumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls is predicted well by OMEGA for herbi-detritivores and primary and secondary carnivorous fish. Ratios are similar to those found for fresh water species. Accumulation ratios for fish-eating birds and mammals are overestimated by the model, which is attributed partly to biotransformation of meta-para unsubstituted congeners. Additionally, birds may feed in other less polluted areas. For brominated diphenylethers (BDE) accumulation patterns are highly species and congener specific. Accumulation depends on both K(ow) and metabolization capacities. BDE47 is the predominant congener in lower trophic levels. For marine birds and mammals accumulation ratios of BDE99 and 100 are similar to or higher than ratios of persistent PCBs.  相似文献   

Luminescence Variations in Fast-Growing Stalagmites from Uppsala, Sweden     

Hanna Sofia Sundqvist  y Baker  Karin Holmgren 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(4):539-548

Two fast‐growing stalagmites from a cellar vault in Uppsala, southeast Sweden, are analysed for their luminescent properties. The results indicate that variations in luminescence intensity in the stalagmites are annual. Due to problems in finding a suitable absolute dating method this assumption cannot yet be firmly tested; however, results from radiocarbon dating of one of the stalagmites do not contradict the proposal that the laminae are annual. If so, the speleothems have been growing for 10–15 years with a growth rate of 3–8 mm per year, which is a similar rate to other fast‐growing speleothems in Great Britain that have formed from the reaction of lime mortar and carbon dioxide. It is likely that the assumed annual laminae of the luminescence record represent a flush of organic material.  相似文献   

Groundwater ‐ the disregarded component in lake water and nutrient budgets. Part 1: effects of groundwater on hydrology          下载免费PDF全文

Donald O. Rosenberry  Jörg Lewandowski  Karin Meinikmann  Gunnar Nützmann 《水文研究》2015,29(13):2895-2921

Lake eutrophication is a large and growing problem in many parts of the world, commonly due to anthropogenic sources of nutrients. Improved quantification of nutrient inputs is required to address this problem, including better determination of exchanges between groundwater and lakes. This first of a two‐part review provides a brief history of the evolution of the study of groundwater exchange with lakes, followed by a listing of the most commonly used methods for quantifying this exchange. Rates of exchange between lakes and groundwater compiled from the literature are statistically summarized for both exfiltration (flow from groundwater to a lake) and infiltration (flow from a lake to groundwater), including per cent contribution of groundwater to lake‐water budgets. Reported rates of exchange between groundwater and lakes span more than five orders of magnitude. Median exfiltration is 0.74 cm/day, and median infiltration is 0.60 cm/day. Exfiltration ranges from near 0% to 94% of input terms in lake‐water budgets, and infiltration ranges from near 0% to 91% of loss terms. Median values for exfiltration and infiltration as percentages of input and loss terms of lake‐water budgets are 25% and 35%, respectively. Quantification of the groundwater term is somewhat method dependent, indicating that calculating the groundwater component with multiple methods can provide a better understanding of the accuracy of estimates. The importance of exfiltration to a lake budget ranges widely for lakes less than about 100 ha in area but generally decreases with increasing lake area, particularly for lakes that exceed 100 ha in area. No such relation is evident for lakes where infiltration occurs, perhaps because of the smaller sample size. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluating environmental drivers of Holocene changes in water chemistry and aquatic biota composition at Lake Loitsana,NE Finland     

Shyhrete Shala  Karin F. Helmens  Tomi P. Luoto  Minna Väliranta  Jan Weckström  J. Sakari Salonen  Peter Kuhry 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2014,52(4):311-329

This study presents a detailed analysis of geochemical and biotic proxies in a lake sediment profile to assess the effects of local and regional environmental drivers on the Holocene development of Lake Loitsana, situated in the northern boreal forest of NE Finland. Multi-proxy studies, in particular those that include a detailed plant macrofossil record, from the part of the northern boreal zone of Fennoscandia which has not been affected by treeline fluctuations, are scarce and few of these records date back to the earliest part of the Holocene. A 9-m sediment sequence of gyttja overlying silts representing the last c. 10,700 cal year, allowed for a high-resolution study with emphasis on the early to mid-Holocene lake history. The lacustrine sediments were studied using lithology, loss-on-ignition and C/N ratios, micro- and macro-fossils of aquatic and wetland taxa, diatoms, chironomids and accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dating on terrestrial plant macrofossils. Our study shows that the local development at Loitsana was complex and included a distinct glacial lake phase and subsequent drainage, a history of fluvial input affected by nearby wetland expansion, and lake infilling in an eventual esker-fed shallow lake. Enhanced trophic conditions, due to morphometric eutrophication, are recorded as Glacial Lake Sokli drained and open water conditions became restricted to a relatively small Lake Loitsana depression. pH appears to have been stable throughout the Holocene with a well-buffered lake due to the local carbonatite bedrock (Sokli Carbonatite Massif). The fossil assemblage changes are best explained by a complex mixture of drivers, including water-body conditions (i.e. depth, turbidity and turbulence), rate of sediment input, and the general infilling of the lake, highlighting the need to carefully evaluate the possible influence of such local factors as palaeoenvironmental conditions are reconstructed based on aquatic proxies.  相似文献   

The politics and policy of carbon capture and storage: Framing an emergent technology     

Karin Bäckstrand 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):275-281

Over the past decade carbon capture and storage (CCS) has attracted increasing international attention as a climate change mitigation option and moved into the center of climate policy debates and negotiations. This special issue of Global Environmental Change brings together leading scholars to analyze the politics, policy and regulation of CCS in cross-country comparisons as well as in a global context. The aim is to contribute on two fronts: first, by applying concepts, theories and methodologies from the social and policy sciences, to elucidate how societies are engaging with CCS as a mitigation option; and secondly, to point toward a future research agenda which, while exploring basic aspects of technology development as situated in a social context, would also be aligned with the needs of the climate and environmental policy community. The contributions address at least one of three inter-related research areas; CCS and the emergence of long-term climate and energy strategies; regulation, policy instruments and public acceptance; and international politics and CCS in developing countries.  相似文献   

Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System: Methods and practices     

Karin Sesetyan  Can ZulfikarMine Demircioglu  Ufuk HancilarYaver Kamer  Mustafa Erdik 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011

Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies can be reduced by timely and correct action after a disastrous earthquake. Modern technology permits measurements of strong ground shaking in near real-time for urban areas exposed to earthquake risk. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System equipped with 100 instruments and two data processing centers aims at the near real time estimation of earthquake damages using most recently developed methodologies and up-to-date structural and demographic inventories of Istanbul city. The methodology developed for near real time estimation of losses after a major earthquake consists of the following general steps: (1) rapid estimation of the ground motion distribution using the strong ground motion data gathered from the instruments; (2) improvement of the ground motion estimations as earthquake parameters become available and (3) estimation of building damage and casualties based on estimated ground motions and intensities. The present paper elaborates on the ground motion and damage estimation methodologies used by the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System with a special emphasis on validation and verification of the different methods.  相似文献