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921.
Effects of climate and density-dependent factors on population dynamics of the pine processionary moth in the Southern Alps 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Giovanni Tamburini Lorenzo Marini Klaus Hellrigl Cristina Salvadori Andrea Battisti 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):701-712
Forest pest populations can fluctuate dramatically in relation to climate and density-dependent factors. Although the distributional range of the pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Lepidoptera Notodontidae) appears to be expanding northward and upslope with climate warming, the relative importance of climate and endogenous, density-dependent factors has not been clearly documented. We analyzed the population dynamics of the moth using long-term data from two provinces in the Southern Alps (Trento: 1990–2009, Bolzano/Bozen: 1975–2011) to evaluate the relative importance of climate and density-dependent factors as regional drivers. Both summer temperatures and rainfall significantly affected population growth rate, with different outcomes depending on the local conditions. Although previous studies indicated that low winter temperatures have negative effects on insect performance, our analyses did not show any negative effect on the population dynamics. A negative density dependent feedback with a 1-year lag emerged as the most important factor driving the population dynamics in both regions. Potential mechanisms explaining the observed negative density feedback include deterioration of host quality, increased mortality caused by pathogens, and increase of prolonged diapause as an adaptive mechanism to escape adverse conditions. 相似文献
922.
This paper introduces a new approach for the initialization of ensemble numerical forecasting: Dynamic Analogue Initialization (DAI). DAI assumes that the best model state trajectories for the past provide the initial conditions for the best forecasts in the future. As such, DAI performs the ensemble forecast using the best analogues from a full size ensemble. As a pilot study, the Lorenz63 and Lorenz96 models were used to test DAI’s effectiveness independently. Results showed that DAI can improve the forecast significantly. Especially in lower-dimensional systems, DAI can reduce the forecast RMSE by ~50% compared to the Monte Carlo forecast (MC). This improvement is because DAI is able to recognize the direction of the analysis error through the embedding process and therefore selects those good trajectories with reduced initial error. Meanwhile, a potential improvement of DAI is also proposed, and that is to find the optimal range of embedding time based on the error’s growing speed. 相似文献
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193nm ArF准分子激光系统对LA-ICP-MS分析中不同基体的剥蚀行为和剥蚀速率探究 总被引:7,自引:6,他引:1
探究LA-ICP-MS分析中不同基体的剥蚀行为和剥蚀速率,可为激光参数设定、基体匹配选择、数据质量保证等方面提供重要参考。本文研究了193 nm ArF准分子激光系统对人工合成/地质样品玻璃、常见矿物和粉末压片的剥蚀行为,同时探究了激光参数(束斑直径、能量密度和剥蚀频率)对剥蚀速率的影响情况。从剥蚀坑形貌可知,193nm ArF激光对玻璃和绝大多数矿物的剥蚀行为良好,但对石英相对较差,这可能与石英内含有微观包裹体,剥蚀过程中局部受热不均有关。粉末压片的剥蚀行为呈现出不可控,可通过提高粉末压片的压制压力或降低粉末颗粒的粒径来改善剥蚀行为;当剥蚀深度大于1.5倍束斑直径时,剥蚀速率随剥蚀深度的增加而逐渐减小,剥蚀深度最多可达束斑直径的两倍左右(RESOlution M-50型号激光系统,3.0 J/cm2激光能量密度);剥蚀速率随激光能量密度的增加而增大,但基本不受剥蚀频率(2~20 Hz)影响。不同基体具有特征的剥蚀速率,本文报道了43种基体的剥蚀速率参数,总体而言,NIST系列玻璃的剥蚀速率大于地质样品玻璃,碳酸盐矿物和硫化物矿物大于硅酸岩矿物,粉末压片大于玻璃和常见矿物。 相似文献
926.
High resolution climate simulations over the Arctic 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Annette Rinke Klaus Dethloff Arne Spekat Wolfgang Enke Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen 《Polar research》1999,18(2):143-150
The regional atmospheric climate model HIRHAM has been applied to the Arctic. Simulations for the whole year 1990 and for an ensemble of winter months (January of 1985-1995) have been performed. The comparison of the simulations with observational data analyses shows that the general spatial patterns are in good agreement with the data, in both the vertical structure and the annual cycle. For an additional validation of the model results, a multivariate classification of large-scale circulation patterns has been applied to the January ensemble model simulations. 相似文献
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Gaël Cazes David Fink Alexandru T. Codilean Réka-Hajnalka Fülöp Toshiyuki Fujioka Klaus M. Wilcken 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(2):424-439
We use cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al in both bedrock and fluvial sediments to investigate controls on erosion rates and sediment supply to river basins at the regional scale in the Kimberley, NW Australia. The area is characterised by lithologically controlled morphologies such as cuestas, isolated mesas and extensive plateaus made of slightly dipping, extensively jointed sandstones. All sampled bedrock surfaces at plateau tops, ridgelines, and in the broader floodplain of major rivers over the region show similar slow lowering rates between 0.17 and 4.88 m.Myr-1, with a mean value of 1.0 ± 0.6 m.Myr-1 (n=15), whilst two bedrock samples collected directly within river-beds record rates that are one to two orders of magnitude higher (14.4 ± 1.5 and 20.9 ± 2.5 m.Myr-1, respectively). Bedrock 26Al/10Be ratios are all compatible with simple, continuous sub-aerial exposure histories. Modern river sediment yield lower 10Be and 26Al concentrations, apparent 10Be basin-wide denudation rates ranging between 1.8 and 7.7 m.Myr-1, with a median value of 2.6 m.Myr-1, more than double the magnitude of bedrock erosion rates. 26Al/10Be ratios of the sediment samples are lower than those obtained for bedrock samples. We propose that these depleted 26Al/10Be ratios can largely be explained by the supply of sediment to river basins from the slab fragmentation and chemical weathering of channel gorge walls and plateau escarpments that result in diluting the cosmogenic nuclide concentration in river sediments measured at the basin outlets. The results of a mass-balance model suggest that ~60–90% of river sediment in the Kimberley results from the breakdown and chemical weathering of retreating vertical sandstone rock-walls in contrast to sediment generated by bedrock weathering and erosion on the plateau tops. This study emphasises the value of analysing two or more isotopes in basin-scale studies using cosmogenic nuclides, especially in slowly eroding post-orogenic settings. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
930.
The transition from porphyry- to epithermal-style gold mineralization at Ladolam, Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea: a reconnaissance study 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
Daniel Müller Klaus Kaminski Stephan Uhlig Torsten Graupner Peter M. Herzig Steve Hunt 《Mineralium Deposita》2002,37(1):61-74
The exceptionally large gold resource at Ladolam (>1,300 metric tons of gold), Lihir Island, resulted from the transition of an early-stage, low-grade porphyry gold system to a low-sulfidation epithermal gold event. This transition was probably triggered by rapid decompression during the partial slope failure of Luise stratovolcano and accompanied by the ingress of seawater. The original porphyry stage is indicated by remnant hydrothermal breccia clasts of strongly biotite-magnetite altered monzodiorite with disseminated pyrite - chalcopyrite and poorly developed pyrite - quartz stockwork veins. The breccias are overprinted by biotite-magnetite alteration and their matrix is strongly mineralized with disseminated auriferous pyrite. The breccias are cut by late-stage epithermal quartz-chalcedony-illite-adularia-pyrite veins and associated illite-adularia alteration that locally contain bonanza gold grades of up to 120 g/t. Isotope data suggest a magmatic source of sulfur in the gold-bearing fluids at Ladolam. Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer LINK server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00126-001-0230-y 相似文献