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Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.  相似文献   
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A smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) numerical modeling method implemented for the forward simulation of propagation and deposition of flow-type landslides was combined with different empirical geomorphological index approaches for the assessment of the formation of landslide dams and their possible evolution for a local case study in southwestern China. The SPH model was calibrated with a previously occurred landslide that formed a stable dam impounding the main river, and it enabled the simulation of final landslide volumes, and the spatial distribution of the resulting landslide deposits. At four different sites on the endangered slope, landslides of three different volumes were simulated, respectively. All landslides deposited in the main river, bearing the potential for either stable impoundment of the river and upstream flooding scenarios, or sudden breach of incompletely formed or unstable landslide dams and possible outburst floods downstream. With the empirical indices, none of the cases could be identified as stable formed landslide dam when considering thresholds reported in the literature, showing up the limitations of these indices for particular case studies of small or intermediate landslide volumes and the necessity to adapt thresholds accordingly for particular regions or sites. Using the occurred benchmark landslide as a reference, two cases could be identified where a complete blockage occurs that is more stable than the reference case. The other cases where a complete blockage was simulated can be considered as potential dam-breach scenarios.  相似文献   
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Natural Resources Research - This study proposes an extension of a visualization approach common in biochemistry (the clustered heat maps—CHMs) to geochemical data with the main objective of...  相似文献   
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Photogrammetry represents a non-destructive, cost-effective tool for coral reef monitoring, able to integrate traditional remote sensing techniques and support researchers’ work. However, its application to submerged habitats is still in early stage. We present new ways to employ Structure from Motion techniques to infer properties of reef habitats. In particular, we propose the use of Digital Surface Models and Digital Terrain Models for assessing coral colonies extension and height and discriminating between seabed and coral cover. Such information can be coupled with digital rugosity estimates to improve habitat characterization. DTM, DSM and orthophotos were derived and used to compute a series of metrics like coral morphologies, reef topography, coral cover and structural complexity. We show the potentialities offered by underwater photogrammetry and derived products to provide useful basic information for marine habitat mapping, opening the possibility to extend these methods for large-scale assessment and monitoring of coral reefs.  相似文献   
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The disintegration of various ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula has demonstrated their vulnerability and impacts on tributary glaciers. A satellite image of Wilkins Ice Shelf (WIS) from July of 2007 reveals the formation of a large new double fracture, accompanied by numerous small fractures. We show that bending stresses induced by buoyancy forces were responsible for fracture formation. On February 28-29, 2008, an area of about 425 km2 broke up at a narrow connection of the WIS to one of its confining islands. In contrast to Larsen B Ice Shelf, melt ponds that drain into crevasses played no role in this breakup process. A further breakup of 160 km2 in the same area occurred on May 30-31, 2008 and documented that breakup can occur during austral winter. Radar images reveal a frozen surface, which demonstrates that in this breakup, surface melt water did not play a role. We conclude that ice shelves with strong thickness contrasts carry potential for disintegration. The fact that the WIS experienced two breakup events under two widely contrasting surface conditions (one during the melt season and one during winter) reveals that there may be several reasons for the disintegration of ice shelves that operate under differing circumstances.  相似文献   
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Classifier ensembles for land cover mapping using multitemporal SAR imagery   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
SAR data are almost independent from weather conditions, and thus are well suited for mapping of seasonally changing variables such as land cover. In regard to recent and upcoming missions, multitemporal and multi-frequency approaches become even more attractive. In the present study, classifier ensembles (i.e., boosted decision tree and random forests) are applied to multi-temporal C-band SAR data, from different study sites and years. A detailed accuracy assessment shows that classifier ensembles, in particularly random forests, outperform standard approaches like a single decision tree and a conventional maximum likelihood classifier by more than 10% independently from the site and year. They reach up to almost 84% of overall accuracy in rural areas with large plots. Visual interpretation confirms the statistical accuracy assessment and reveals that also typical random noise is considerably reduced. In addition the results demonstrate that random forests are less sensitive to the number of training samples and perform well even with only a small number. Random forests are computationally highly efficient and are hence considered very well suited for land cover classifications of future multifrequency and multitemporal stacks of SAR imagery.  相似文献   
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During summer, bloom-forming cyanobacteria, including Anacystis, Aphanizomenon, and Microcystis aeruginosa, dominate tidal-fresh waters of the upper Potomac River estuary with densities exceeding 108 cells l?1. In an attempt to determine the importance of these high cyanobacteria densities to planktonic herbivory in the system, short-term grazing experiments were conducted in July and August 1987. Using size-fractionated river phytoplankton assemblages, zooplankton grazing rates were determined for dominant or subdominant planktonic microzooplankton and mesozooplankton feeding on 14C-labeled river assemblages, 14C-labeled river assemblages enriched with unlabeled cyanobacteria, and unlabeled river assemblages enriched with 14C-labeled cyanobacteria. Grazing rates were estimated for the rotifers Polyarthra remata, Hexarthra mira, Asplanchna brightwelli, Brachionus angularis, Epiphanes sp., Trichocerca similis, and the cyclopoid copepod Cyclops vernalis. Neither rotifers nor the copepod grazed heavily on Microcystis. Rotifer grazing rates on labeled cyanobacteria ranged from 4 to 1,650 nl· [individual · h]?1 while copepod rates ranged from undetectable to 135 μl · [copepod · h]?1. Grazing rates on labeled river phytoplankton assemblages were 4–100 times higher than noted for zooplankton feeding on cyanobacteria. The addition of the colonial alga to labeled river phytoplankton assemblages resulted in mixed zooplankton responses, that is, lower and higher grazing rates than observed on river assemblages with no added cyanobacteria. Total zooplankton demand for cyanobacteria and river phytoplankton assemblages was estimated for the study period July–August 1987. Rotifer plus C. vernalis herbivory would have removed 1–5% and 49%, respectively, of the standing stock of the two autotroph pools each day. Literature-derived clearance rates for Bosmina indicate, however, that herbivory by this cladoceran could increase demand to 24% and 60%, respectively, in bloom and nonbloom assemblages. These data suggest that the majority of cyanobacterial production remains ungrazed and may be transported to the lower estuary for salinity-induced aggregation and sedimentation.  相似文献   
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