The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison     

Gunnar Luderer  Valentina Bosetti  Michael Jakob  Marian Leimbach  Jan C. Steckel  Henri Waisman  Ottmar Edenhofer 《Climatic change》2012,114(1):9-37

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.  相似文献   

The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Derek M. Lemoine  Sabine Fuss  Jana Szolgayova  Michael Obersteiner  Daniel M. Kammen 《Climatic change》2012,113(2):141-162

Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO₂ concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO₂ constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from ??carbon-free?? technologies into ??emission intensity?? technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO₂ concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO₂ constraint earlier in the century.  相似文献   

Coral reef ecosystems protect shore from high-energy waves under climate change scenarios     

Cesar Villanoy  Laura David  Olivia Cabrera  Michael Atrigenio  Fernando Siringan  Porfirio Aliño  Maya Villaluz 《Climatic change》2012,112(2):493-505

Coral reefs and other coastal ecosystems such as seagrasses and mangroves are widely recognized to provide protection against the devastating effects of strong waves associated with tsunamis and storms. The predicted warming climate brings to fore the role of these ecosystems in providing protection against stronger typhoons that can result in more devastating waves of greater amplitude. We performed a model simulation of storm generated waves on a Philippine reef, which is located along the path of tropical storms, i.e., at least 10 typhoons on the average pass through the study site yearly. A model to simulate wave propagation was developed using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) and DELFT3D-WAVE computer simulation software. Scenarios involving local monsoonal wind forcing and storm conditions were simulated. In addition, as climate change may also result to increased relative sea level, a 0.3 m and 1 m rise in sea level scenarios were also used in the wave model simulations. Results showed that the extensive reef system in the site helped dissipate wave energy that in turn reduced wave run-up on land. A significant reduction in wave energy was observed in both climate change, i.e., stronger wind and higher sea level, and non-climate change scenarios. This present study was conducted in a reef whose coral cover is in excellent condition (i.e., 50 to 80% coral cover). Estimates of coral reef growth are in the same order of magnitude as estimates of relative sea level rise based on tide gauge and satellite altimeter data, thus it is possible that the role of reefs in attenuating wave energy may be maintained if coral reef growth can keep up with the change in sea level. Nonetheless, to maintain reef growth, it is imperative to manage coral reef ecosystems sustainably and to eliminate the stressors that are within human control. Minimizing activities such as illegal and destructive blast and poison fishing methods, pollution and siltation, is crucial to minimize the impacts of high-energy waves that may increase with climate change.  相似文献   

Probabilistic prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global climate models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Makarand A. Kulkarni  Nachiketa Acharya  Sarat C. Kar  U. C. Mohanty  Michael K. Tippett  Andrew W. Robertson  Jing-Jia Luo  Toshio Yamagata 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(3-4):441-450

Probabilistic seasonal predictions of rainfall that incorporate proper uncertainties are essential for climate risk management. In this study, three different multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are used to generate probabilistic seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on a set of eight global climate models for the 1982–2009 period. The three MME approaches differ in their calculation of spread of the forecast distribution, treated as a Gaussian, while all three use the simple multi-model subdivision average to define the mean of the forecast distribution. The first two approaches use the within-ensemble spread and error residuals of ensemble mean hindcasts, respectively, to compute the variance of the forecast distribution. The third approach makes use of the correlation between the ensemble mean hindcasts and the observations to define the spread using a signal-to-noise ratio. Hindcasts are verified against high-resolution gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department in terms of meteorological subdivision spatial averages. The use of correlation for calculating the spread provides better skill than the other two methods in terms of rank probability skill score. In order to further improve the skill, an additional method has been used to generate multi-model probabilistic predictions based on simple averaging of tercile category probabilities from individual models. It is also noted that when such a method is used, skill of probabilistic forecasts is improved as compared with using the multi-model ensemble mean to define the mean of the forecast distribution and then probabilities are estimated. However, skill of the probabilistic predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall is too low.  相似文献   

Special issue: 125?years of high-mountain research at Sonnblick Observatory (Austrian Alps)     

Hartmut Gra?l  Michael Hantel  Mathias W. Rotach  Ernest Rudel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(4):489-490

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A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Matthew B. Menary  Wonsun Park  Katja Lohmann  Michael Vellinga  Matthew D. Palmer  Mojib Latif  Johann H. Jungclaus 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(11-12):2377-2388

A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100?years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000?years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.  相似文献   

Mitigation of atmospheric perturbations and solid Earth movements in a TerraSAR-X time-series     

Adrian Schubert  Michael Jehle  David Small  Erich Meier 《Journal of Geodesy》2012,86(4):257-270

The TerraSAR-X (TSX) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) marks the recent emergence of a new generation of spaceborne radar sensors that can for the first time lay claim to localization accuracies in the sub-meter range. The TSX platform’s extremely high orbital stability and the sensor’s hardware timing accuracy combine to enable direct measurements of atmospheric refraction and solid Earth movements. By modeling these effects for individual TSX acquisitions, absolute pixel geolocation accuracy on the order of several centimeters can be achieved without need for even a single tiepoint. A 16-month time series of images was obtained over a fixed test site, making it possible to validate both an atmospheric refraction and a solid Earth tide model, while at the same time establishing the instrument’s long-term stability. These related goals were achieved by placing trihedral corner reflectors (CRs) at the test site and estimating their phase centers with centimeter-level accuracy using differential GPS (DGPS). Oriented in pairs toward a given satellite track, the CRs could be seen as bright “points” in the images, providing a geometric reference set. SAR images from the high-resolution spotlight (HS) mode were obtained in alternating ascending and descending orbit configurations. The highest-resolution products were selected for their small sample dimensions, as positions can be more precisely determined. Based on the delivered product annotations, the CR image positions were predicted, and these predictions were compared with their measured image positions both before and after compensation for atmospheric refraction and systematic solid Earth deviations. It was possible to show that when the atmospheric distortion and Earth tides are taken into account, the TSX HS products have geolocation accuracies far exceeding the specified requirements. Furthermore, this accuracy was maintained for the duration of the 16-month test period. It could be demonstrated that with a correctly calibrated sensor, and after accounting for atmospheric and tidal effects, tiepoint-free geolocation is possible with TSX with an absolute product accuracy of about 5 cm.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Mission design,operation and exploitation of the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) mission     

Rune?FloberghagenEmail author  Michael?Fehringer  Daniel?Lamarre  Danilo?Muzi  Bj?rn?Frommknecht  Christoph?Steiger  Juan?Pi?eiro  Andrea?da?Costa 《Journal of Geodesy》2012,86(3):241-241

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In situ measurements of contributions to the global electrical circuit by a thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil     

Jeremy N. Thomas  Robert H. Holzworth  Michael P. McCarthy 《Atmospheric Research》2009,91(2-4):153-160

The global electrical circuit, which maintains a potential of about 280 kV between the earth and the ionosphere, is thought to be driven mainly by thunderstorms and lightning. However, very few in situ measurements of electrical current above thunderstorms have been successfully obtained. In this paper, we present dc to very low frequency electric fields and atmospheric conductivity measured in the stratosphere (30–35 km altitude) above an active thunderstorm in southeastern Brazil. From these measurements, we estimate the mean quasi-static conduction current during the storm period to be 2.5 ± 1.25 A. Additionally, we examine the transient conduction currents following a large positive cloud-to-ground (+ CG) lightning flash and typical − CG flashes. We find that the majority of the total current is attributed to the quasi-static thundercloud charge, rather than lightning, which supports the classical Wilson model for the global electrical circuit.  相似文献   

Economic impacts on key Barents Sea fisheries arising from changes in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation     

P. Michael Link  Richard S.J. Tol   《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(4):422-433

A bioeconomic model of key fisheries of the Barents Sea is run with scenarios generated by an earth system model of intermediate complexity to assess how the Barents Sea fisheries of cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) are affected by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) arising from anthropogenic climate change. Changes in hydrographic conditions have an impact on recruitment success and survival rates, which constitute a lasting effect on the stocks. The economic development of the fisheries is determined for the 21st century, considering a purely stock size based and a coupled stock size-hydrography based harvesting strategy. Results show that a substantial weakening of the THC leads to impaired cod stock development, causing the associated fishery to become unprofitable in the long run. Simultaneous improvements in capelin stock development help the capelin fishery, but are insufficient to offset the losses incurred by the cod fishery. A comparison of harvest strategies reveals that in times of high variability in stock development, coupled stock size-hydrography based management leads to more stable economic results of these fisheries than the stock size based fishing strategy.  相似文献