<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan: precursors uncovered by natural time analysis          下载免费PDF全文

Panayiotis A. Varotsos  Nicholas V. Sarlis  Efthimios S. Skordas  Mary S. Lazaridou-Varotsos 《地震科学（英文版）》2017,30(4):183-191

This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 M _W9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal (SES) activity of the VAN method (from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos) initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.  相似文献   

A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary forest harvesting          下载免费PDF全文

Kevin D. Bladon  Catalina Segura  Nicholas A. Cook  Sharon Bywater‐Reyes  Maryanne Reiter 《水文研究》2018,32(2):293-304

Stream temperature is a key physical water‐quality parameter, controlling many biological, chemical, and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Maintenance of cool stream temperatures during summer is critical for high‐quality aquatic habitat. As such, transmission of warm water from small, nonfish‐bearing headwater streams after forest harvesting could cause warming in downstream fish‐bearing stream reaches with negative consequences. In this study, we evaluate (a) the effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature in small, headwater streams, (b) the transmission of thermal signals from headwater reaches after harvesting to downstream fish‐bearing reaches, and (c) the relative role of lithology and forest management practices in influencing differential thermal responses in both the headwater and downstream reaches. We measured summer stream temperatures both preharvest and postharvest at 29 sites—12 upstream sites (4 reference, 8 harvested) and 17 downstream sites (5 reference, 12 harvested)—across 3 paired watershed studies in western Oregon. The 7‐day moving average of daily maximum stream temperature (T_7DAYMAX) was greater during the postharvest period relative to the preharvest period at 7 of the 8 harvested upstream sites. Although the T_7DAYMAX was generally warmer in the downstream direction at most of the stream reaches during both the preharvest and postharvest period, there was no evidence for additional downstream warming related to the harvesting activity. Rather, the T_7DAYMAX cooled rapidly as stream water flowed into forested reaches ~370–1,420 m downstream of harvested areas. Finally, the magnitude of effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature increased with the proportion of catchment underlain by more resistant lithology at both the headwater and downstream sites, reducing the potential for the cooling influence of groundwater.  相似文献   

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates          下载免费PDF全文

Michael J. Hollaway  Keith J. Beven  Clare Mc W. H. Benskin  Adrian L. Collins  Robert Evans  Peter D. Falloon  Kirsty J. Forber  Kevin M. Hiscock  Ron Kahana  Christopher J. A. Macleod  Mary C. Ockenden  Martha L. Villamizar  Catherine Wearing  Paul J. A. Withers  Jian G. Zhou  Nicholas J. Barber  Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.  相似文献   

Seismic electric signals in seismic prone areas          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas V.Sarlis  Panayiotis A.Varotsos  Efthimios S.Skordas  Seiya Uyeda  Jacques Zlotnicki  Toshiyasu Nagao  Anatoly Rybin  Mary S.Lazaridou-Varotsos  Konstantina A.Papadopoulou 《地震科学（英文版）》2018,31(1):44-51

The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos(VAN) method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals(SES). Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.  相似文献   

Periglacial trimlines,former nunataks and the altitude of the last ice sheet in Wester Ross,northwest Scotland     

Colin K. Ballantyne  Danny McCarroll  Atle Nesje  Svein Olaf Dahl 《第四纪科学杂志》1997,12(3):225-238

High-level weathering limits separating ice-scoured topography from frost-weathered detritus were identified on 28 mountains in Wester Ross at altitudes of 700–960 m, and a further 22 peaks support evidence of ice scouring to summit level. Weathering limits are defined most clearly on sandstone and gneiss, which have resisted frost shattering during the Late Devensian Lateglacial, but can also be distinguished on schists and quartzite. Schmidt hammer measurements and analyses of clay mineral assemblages indicate significantly more advanced rock and soil weathering above the weathering limits. The persistence of gibbsite above weathering limits indicates that they represent the upper limit of Late Devensian glacial erosion. The regular decline of weathering-limit altitudes along former flowlines eliminates the possibility that the weathering limits represent former thermal boundaries between protective cold-based and erosive warm-based ice. The weathering limits are therefore interpreted as periglacial trimlines that define the maximum surface altitude of the last ice sheet. Calculated basal shear stresses of 50–95 kPa are consistent with this interpretation. Reconstruction of ice-sheet configuration indicates that the former ice-shed lay above 900 m along the present watershed, and that the ice surface descended northwestwards, with broad depressions along major troughs and localised domes around independent centres of ice dispersal. Extrapolation of the ice surface gradient and altitude suggests that the ice sheet did not overrun the Outer Hebrides, but was confluent with the independent Outer Hebrides ice-cap in the North Minch basin. Erratics located up to 140 m above the reconstructed ice surface are inferred to have been emplaced by a pre-Late Devensian ice sheet (or ice sheets) of unknown age. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat     

Jonathan D Mackay  Nicholas E Barrand  David M Hannah  Stefan Krause  Christopher R Jackson  Jez Everest  Alan M MacDonald  Brighid É Ó Dochartaigh 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5456-5473

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.  相似文献   

Enhancing Microbial Sulfate Reduction of Hydrocarbons in Groundwater Using Permeable Filled Borings     

Timothy Buscheck  Douglas Mackay  Charles Paradis  Radomir Schmidt  Nicholas de Sieyes 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2019,39(3):48-60

At a service station closed in 1993, groundwater contained benzene that persisted above the cleanup goal of 1 mg/L in zones depleted of background sulfate. The benzene and other petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs) were present as much as 36 feet (11 m) below the water table and therefore remediation of a thick saturated zone interval was required. Microcosms using site sediments demonstrated that anaerobic benzene biodegradation occurred only if sulfate was added, suggesting sulfate addition as a remediation approach. Twenty-four boreholes (9.1″ diameter and 56′ deep) were drilled around four monitoring wells, in which benzene concentrations exceeded 1 mg/L. The boreholes were backfilled with a mixture of gravel and 15,000 pounds of gypsum (which releases sulfate as it dissolves) to create “Permeable Filled Borings” (PFBs). Concurrently, nine high pressure injections (HPIs) of gypsum slurry were conducted in other site locations (312 pounds of gypsum total). PFBs were expected to release sulfate for up to 20 years, whereas HPIs were expected to produce a short-lived plume of sulfate. Concentrations of benzene and sulfate in groundwater were monitored over a 3-year period in six monitoring wells. In two wells near PFBs, benzene concentrations dropped below the cleanup goal by two to three orders of magnitude; in one well, sulfate concentrations exceeded 500 mg/L for the most recent 18 months. Benzene concentrations in two other PFB monitoring wells declined by a factor of 2 to 4, but remained above 1 mg/L, presumably due to high-dissolved PHC concentrations and possibly greater residual PHC mass in adjacent sediments, and therefore greater sulfate demand. However, hydrogen and sulfur isotopic enrichment in benzene and sulfate, respectively, confirmed biodegradation of benzene and stimulation of sulfate-reducing conditions. Thus, it is hypothesized that the PHC mass in adjacent sediments will decline over time, as will dissolved PHC concentrations, and eventually benzene concentrations will decrease below the cleanup goal. Benzene in two HPI monitoring wells was below the cleanup goal for all but one sampling event before HPIs were conducted and remained below the cleanup goal after HPIs; there was no stimulation of sulfate-reducing conditions. It is concluded that sulfate released from PFBs contributed to declining benzene concentrations.  相似文献   

Quantifying flow resistance in mountain streams using computational fluid dynamics modeling over structure-from-motion photogrammetry-derived microtopography     

Yunxiang Chen  Roman A. DiBiase  Nicholas McCarroll  Xiaofeng Liu 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(10):1973-1987

Flow resistance in mountain streams is important for assessing flooding hazard and quantifying sediment transport and bedrock incision in upland landscapes. In such settings, flow resistance is sensitive to grain-scale roughness, which has traditionally been characterized by particle size distributions derived from laborious point counts of streambed sediment. Developing a general framework for rapid quantification of resistance in mountain streams is still a challenge. Here we present a semi-automated workflow that combines millimeter- to centimeter-scale structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry surveys of bed topography and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to better evaluate surface roughness and rapidly quantify flow resistance in mountain streams. The workflow was applied to three field sites of gravel, cobble, and boulder-bedded channels with a wide range of grain size, sorting, and shape. Large-eddy simulations with body-fitted meshes generated from SfM photogrammetry-derived surfaces were performed to quantify flow resistance. The analysis of bed microtopography using a second-order structure function identified three scaling regimes that corresponded to important roughness length scales and surface complexity contributing to flow resistance. The standard deviation σ_z of detrended streambed elevation normalized by water depth, as a proxy for the vertical roughness length scale, emerges as the primary control on flow resistance and is furthermore tied to the characteristic length scale of rough surface-generated vortices. Horizontal length scales and surface complexity are secondary controls on flow resistance. A new resistance predictor linking water depth and vertical roughness scale, i.e.  H/σ_z, is proposed based on the comparison between σ_z and the characteristic length scale of vortex shedding. In addition, representing streambeds using digital elevation models (DEM) is appropriate for well-sorted streambeds, but not for poorly sorted ones under shallow and medium flow depth conditions due to the missing local overhanging features captured by fully 3D meshes which modulate local pressure gradient and thus bulk flow separation and pressure distribution. An appraisal of the mesh resolution effect on flow resistance shows that the SfM photogrammetry data resolution and the optimal CFD mesh size should be about 1/7 to 1/14 of the standard deviation of bed elevation. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydraulic redistribution and hydrological controls on aspen transpiration and establishment in peatlands following wildfire   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Midori Depante  Matthew Q. Morison  Richard M. Petrone  Kevin J. Devito  Nicholas Kettridge  James M. Waddington 《水文研究》2019,33(21):2714-2728

In the sub‐humid Western Boreal Plains of Alberta, where evapotranspiration often exceeds precipitation, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) uplands often depend on adjacent peatlands for water supply through hydraulic redistribution. Wildfire is common in the Boreal Plains, so the resilience of the transfer of water from peatlands to uplands through roots immediately following wildfire may have implications for aspen succession. The objective of this research was to characterize post‐fire peatland‐upland hydraulic connectivity and assess controls on aspen transpiration (as a measure of stress and productivity) among landscape topographic positions. In May 2011, a wildfire affected 90,000 ha of north central Alberta, including the Utikuma Region Study Area (URSA). Portions of an URSA glacio‐fluval outwash lake catchment were burned, which included forests and a small peatland. Within 1 year after the fire, aspen were found to be growing in both the interior and margins of this peatland. Across recovering land units, transpiration varied along a topographic gradient of upland midslope (0.42 mm hr^?1) > upland hilltop (0.29 mm hr^?1) > margin (0.23 mm hr^?1) > peatland (0.10 mm hr^?1); similar trends were observed with leaf area and stem heights. Although volumetric water content was below field capacity, P. tremuloides were sustained through roots present, likely before fire, in peatland margins through hydraulic redistribution. Evidence for this was observed through the analysis of oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen (δ²H) isotopes where upland xylem and peat core signatures were ?10.0‰ and ?117.8‰ and ?9.2‰ and ?114.0‰, respectively. This research highlights the potential importance of hydraulic redistribution to forest sustainability and recovery, in which the continued delivery of water may result in the encroachment of aspen into peatlands. As such, we suggest that through altering ecosystem services, peatland margins following fire may be at risk to aspen colonization during succession.  相似文献   

Influence of random heterogeneity of shear wave velocity on sliding mass response and seismic deformations of earth slopes     

Esfeh  Pourya Kazemi  Nadi  Bahram  Fantuzzi  Nicholas 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2020,19(2):269-287

Soil shear wave velocity has been recognized as a governing parameter in the assessment of the seismic response of slopes. The spatial variability of soil shear wave velocity can influence the seismic response of sliding mass and seismic displacements. However, most analyses of sliding mass response have been carried out by deterministic models. This paper stochastically investigates the effect of random heterogeneity of shear wave velocity of soil on the dynamic response of sliding mass using the correlation matrix decomposition method and Monte Carlo simulation(MCS). The software FLAC 7.0 along with a Matlab code has been utilized for this purpose. The influence of statistical parameters on the seismic response of sliding mass and seismic displacements in earth slopes with different inclinations and stiffnesses subject to various earthquake shakings was investigated. The results indicated that, in general, the random heterogeneity of soil shear modulus can have a notable impact on the sliding mass response and that neglecting this phenomenon could lead to underestimation of sliding deformations.  相似文献