A Source Function for a Dynamic Brittle Unilateral Shear Fracture     

Merle E. Hanson  Allan R. Sanford  Ronald J. Shaffer 《Geophysical Journal International》1974,38(2):365-376

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An objective replacement method for censored geochemical data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Richard F. Sanford  Charles T. Pierson  Robert A. Crovelli 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(1):59-80

Geochemical data are commonly censored, that is, concentrations for some samples are reported as less than or greater than some value. Censored data hampers statistical analysis because certain computational techniques used in statistical analysis require a complete set of uncensored data. We show that the simple substitution method for creating an uncensored dataset, e.g., replacement by3/4 times the detection limit, has serious flaws, and we present an objective method to determine the replacement value. Our basic premise is that the replacement value should equal the mean of the actual values represented by the qualified data. We adapt the maximum likelihood approach (Cohen, 1961) to estimate this mean. This method reproduces the mean and skewness as well or better than a simple substitution method using3/4 of the lower detection limit or3/4 of the upper detection limit. For a small proportion of less than substitutions, a simple-substitution replacement factor of 0.55 is preferable to3/4; for a small proportion of greater than substitutions, a simple-substitution replacement factor of 1.7 is preferable to4/3, provided the resulting replacement value does not exceed 100%. For more than 10% replacement, a mean empirical factor may be used. However, empirically determined simple-substitution replacement factors usually vary among different data sets and are less reliable with more replacements. Therefore, a maximum likelihood method is superior in general. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that true replacement factors for less thans decrease in magnitude with more replacements and larger standard deviation; those for greater thans increase in magnitude with more replacements and larger standard deviation. In contrast to any simple substitution method, the maximum likelihood method reproduces these variations. Using the maximum likelihood method for replacing less thans in our sample data set, correlation coefficients were reasonably accurately estimated in 90% of the cases for as much as 40% replacement and in 60% of the cases for 80% replacement. These results suggest that censored data can be utilized more than is commonly realized.  相似文献   

Extremely alkaline (pH > 12) ground water hosts diverse microbial community     

Roadcap GS  Sanford RA  Jin Q  Pardinas JR  Bethke CM 《Ground water》2006,44(4):511-517

Chemically unusual ground water can provide an environment for novel communities of bacteria to develop. Here, we describe a diverse microbial community that inhabits extremely alkaline (pH > 12) ground water from the Lake Calumet area of Chicago, Illinois, where historic dumping of steel slag has filled in a wetland. Using microbial 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid gene sequencing and microcosm experiments, we confirmed the presence and growth of a variety of alkaliphilic beta-Proteobacteria, Bacillus, and Clostridium species at pH up to 13.2. Many of the bacterial sequences most closely matched those of other alkaliphiles found in more moderately alkaline water around the world. Oxidation of dihydrogen produced by reaction of water with steel slag is likely a primary energy source to the community. The widespread occurrence of iron-oxidizing bacteria suggests that reduced iron serves as an additional energy source. These results extend upward the known range of pH tolerance for a microbial community by as much as 2 pH units. The community may provide a source of novel microbes and enzymes that can be exploited under alkaline conditions.  相似文献   

Current challenges using models to forecast seawater intrusion: lessons from the Eastern Shore of Virginia, USA   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Ward E. Sanford  Jason P. Pope 《Hydrogeology Journal》2010,18(1):73-93

A three-dimensional model of the aquifer system of the Eastern Shore of Virginia, USA was calibrated to reproduce historical water levels and forecast the potential for saltwater intrusion. Future scenarios were simulated with two pumping schemes to predict potential areas of saltwater intrusion. Simulations suggest that only a few wells would be threatened with detectable salinity increases before 2050. The objective was to examine whether salinity increases can be accurately forecast for individual wells with such a model, and to address what the challenges are in making such model forecasts given current (2009) simulation capabilities. The analysis suggests that even with current computer capabilities, accurate simulations of concentrations within a regional-scale (many km) transition zone are computationally prohibitive. The relative paucity of data that is typical for such regions relative to what is needed for accurate transport simulations suggests that even with an infinitely powerful computer, accurate forecasting for a single well would still be elusive. Useful approaches may include local-grid refinement near wells and geophysical surveys, but it is important to keep expectations for simulated forecasts at wells in line with chloride concentration and other data that can be obtained at that local scale.  相似文献   

Calibration of models using groundwater age     

Ward Sanford 《Hydrogeology Journal》2011,19(1):13-16

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Tritium�Chelium groundwater age used to constrain a groundwater flow model of a valley-fill aquifer contaminated with trichloroethylene (Quebec, Canada)     

Samantha Murphy  Thomas Ouellon  Jean-Marc Ballard  Ren�� Lefebvre  Ian D. Clark 《Hydrogeology Journal》2011,19(1):195-207

Tritium?Chelium groundwater dating was carried out in a trichloroethylene (TCE)-contaminated valley-fill aquifer system in Quebec, Canada, where a numerical groundwater flow model was developed. Forty seven discrete groundwater and dissolved gas samples were obtained along two flow paths originating from known TCE source zones whose related plumes converge down gradient to form a single plume. Sampling points in monitoring wells were projected onto vertical sections showing particle tracks along the two flow paths. At these points, simulated advective ages obtained from particle tracking were matched to tritium?Chelium ages using different porosity values; the best match was 0.35. Ages were also obtained above and below a prodeltaic silty aquitard in a portion of the aquifer where some source zones are located, which provide groundwater and TCE transit times through the aquitard as well as a mean vertical hydraulic conductivity that agrees with previous estimates used in the model. In certain locations, anomalously old ages associated with high terrigenic ⁴He indicate areas where groundwater from the underlying proglacial unit flows upward into the deltaic sand aquifer through aquitard windows. Upflow locations correspond with increased TCE concentrations, suggesting significant TCE provenance through the proglacial unit originating from a previously unrecognized TCE source zone.  相似文献   

Limitations of single-basket trading: lessons from the Montreal Protocol for climate policy   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

John S. Daniel  Susan Solomon  Todd J. Sanford  Mack McFarland  Jan S. Fuglestvedt  Pierre Friedlingstein 《Climatic change》2012,111(2):241-248

Numerous policy options exist to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions. A single-basket approach, which controls aggregate emissions, was adopted by the Kyoto Protocol. Such an approach allows emissions reductions of one gas to be traded with those of other gases in the “basket”, with the trade “price” determined by some weighting metric like the Global Warming Potential. To reduce stratospheric ozone depletion, the Montreal Protocol also dealt with controlling many compounds, but did so employing an alternative, multi-basket scheme. Trading was allowed within each basket, but not among baskets. While the Montreal Protocol has been highly successful using this approach, we show that if a single-basket approach had been adopted the short-term success could have been at risk due to the non-unique relationship between controls and environmental impacts when using a single basket. Using climate policy as an example, and without considering technological and economic constraints, we further show that the magnitude of the ambiguities in impacts associated with a single-basket approach depends on the rapidity of the emission phaseout. Fast phaseouts lead to less ambiguity than do slow ones. These results suggest that for each set of greenhouse gas control policies considered, the benefit of additional flexibility associated with a single-basket approach should be weighed against the associated increased uncertainties in the impacts to ascertain whether a single- or a multi-basket approach has the greater chance of successfully mitigating climate change.  相似文献   

Temporal response of hydraulic head, temperature, and chloride concentrations to sea-level changes, Floridan aquifer system, USA     

J. D. Hughes  H. L. Vacher  Ward E. Sanford 《Hydrogeology Journal》2009,17(4):793-815

Three-dimensional density-dependent flow and transport modeling of the Floridan aquifer system, USA shows that current chloride concentrations are not in equilibrium with current sea level and, second, that the geometric configuration of the aquifer has a significant effect on system responses. The modeling shows that hydraulic head equilibrates first, followed by temperatures, and then by chloride concentrations. The model was constructed using a modified version of SUTRA capable of simulating multi-species heat and solute transport, and was compared to pre-development conditions using hydraulic heads, chloride concentrations, and temperatures from 315 observation wells. Three hypothetical, sinusoidal sea-level changes occurring over 100,000 years were used to evaluate how the simulated aquifer responds to sea-level changes. Model results show that hydraulic head responses lag behind sea-level changes only where the Miocene Hawthorn confining unit is thick and represents a significant restriction to flow. Temperatures equilibrate quickly except where the Hawthorn confining unit is thick and the duration of the sea-level event is long (exceeding 30,000 years). Response times for chloride concentrations to equilibrate are shortest near the coastline and where the aquifer is unconfined; in contrast, chloride concentrations do not change significantly over the 100,000-year simulation period where the Hawthorn confining unit is thick.  相似文献   

Wave measurement and modeling in Chesapeake Bay   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Weiqi Lin  Lawrence P. Sanford  Steven E. Suttles 《Continental Shelf Research》2002,22(18-19)

Three recently measured wind and wave data sets in the northern part of Chesapeake Bay (CB) are presented. Two of the three data sets were collected in late 1995. The third one was collected in July of 1998. The analyzed wind and wave data show that waves were dominated by locally generated, fetch limited young wind seas. Significant wave heights were highly correlated to the local driving wind speeds and the response time of the waves to the winds was about 1 h. We also tested two very different numerical wave models, Simulation of WAves Nearshore (SWAN) and Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), to hind-cast the wave conditions against the data sets. Time series model–data comparisons made using SWAN and GLERL showed that both models behaved well in response to a suddenly changing wind. In general, both SWAN and GLERL over-predicted significant wave height; SWAN over-predicted more than GLERL did. SWAN had a larger scatter index and a smaller correlation coefficient for wave height than GLERL had. In addition, both models slightly under-predicted the peak period with a fairly large scatter and low correlation coefficient. SWAN predicted mean wave direction better than GLERL did. Directional wave spectral comparisons between SWAN predictions and the data support these statistical comparisons. The GLERL model was much more computationally efficient for wind wave forecasts in CB. SWAN and GLERL predicted different wave height field distributions for the same winds in deeper water areas of the Bay where data were not available, however. These differences are as yet unresolved.  相似文献   

A Non-Graphical Method of Determining u and W(u) by N. T. Sheahan – April, 1967     

Sanford I. Strausberg 《Ground water》1967,5(3):47-47

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