Practical Use of Computationally Frugal Model Analysis Methods          下载免费PDF全文

Mary C. Hill  Dmitri Kavetski  Martyn Clark  Ming Ye  Mazdak Arabi  Dan Lu  Laura Foglia  Steffen Mehl 《Ground water》2016,54(2):159-170

Three challenges compromise the utility of mathematical models of groundwater and other environmental systems: (1) a dizzying array of model analysis methods and metrics make it difficult to compare evaluations of model adequacy, sensitivity, and uncertainty; (2) the high computational demands of many popular model analysis methods (requiring 1000's, 10,000 s, or more model runs) make them difficult to apply to complex models; and (3) many models are plagued by unrealistic nonlinearities arising from the numerical model formulation and implementation. This study proposes a strategy to address these challenges through a careful combination of model analysis and implementation methods. In this strategy, computationally frugal model analysis methods (often requiring a few dozen parallelizable model runs) play a major role, and computationally demanding methods are used for problems where (relatively) inexpensive diagnostics suggest the frugal methods are unreliable. We also argue in favor of detecting and, where possible, eliminating unrealistic model nonlinearities—this increases the realism of the model itself and facilitates the application of frugal methods. Literature examples are used to demonstrate the use of frugal methods and associated diagnostics. We suggest that the strategy proposed in this paper would allow the environmental sciences community to achieve greater transparency and falsifiability of environmental models, and obtain greater scientific insight from ongoing and future modeling efforts.  相似文献   

The 12.4 ka Upper Apoyeque Tephra,Nicaragua: stratigraphy,dispersal, composition,magma reservoir conditions and trigger of the plinian eruption     

Heidi Wehrmann  Armin Freundt  Steffen Kutterolf 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(6):44

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Constraints on the angular distribution of satellite galaxies about spiral hosts     

Jason H. Steffen  Octavio Valenzuela 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,387(3):1199-1205

We present, using a novel technique, a study of the angular distribution of satellite galaxies around a sample of isolated, blue host galaxies selected from the sixth data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. As a complement to previous studies, we subdivide the sample of galaxies into bins of differing inclination and use the systematic differences that would exist between the different bins as the basis for our approach. We parametrize the cumulative distribution function of satellite galaxies and apply a maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo technique to determine allowable distributions, which we show as an exclusion plot. We find that the allowed distributions of the satellites of spiral hosts are very nearly isotropic. We outline our formalism and our analysis and discuss how this technique may be refined for future studies and future surveys.  相似文献   

A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Junguo Liu  Steffen Fritz  C.F.A. van Wesenbeeck  Michael Fuchs  Liangzhi You  Michael Obersteiner  Hong Yang 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,64(3-4):222

Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.  相似文献   

Nonlinear Flow Process: A New Package to Compute Nonlinear Flow in MODFLOW          下载免费PDF全文

Cyril Mayaud  Patrica Walker  Stefan Hergarten  Steffen Birk 《Ground water》2015,53(4):645-650

A new MODFLOW package (Nonlinear Flow Process; NLFP) simulating nonlinear flow following the Forchheimer equation was developed and implemented in MODLFOW‐2005. The method is based on an iterative modification of the conductance calculated and used by MODFLOW to obtain an effective Forchheimer conductance. The package is compatible with the different layer types, boundary conditions, and solvers as well as the wetting capability of MODFLOW. The correct implementation is demonstrated using four different benchmark scenarios for which analytical solutions are available. A scenario considering transient flow in a more realistic setting and a larger model domain with a higher number of cells demonstrates that NLFP performs well under more complex conditions, although it converges moderately slower than the standard MODFLOW depending on the nonlinearity of flow. Thus, this new tool opens a field of opportunities to groundwater flow simulation with MODFLOW, especially for core sample simulation or vuggy karstified aquifers as well as for nonlinear flow in the vicinity of pumping wells.  相似文献   

The influence of leaf litter diversity and soil fauna on initial soil erosion in subtropical forests   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

Steffen Seitz  Philipp Goebes  Pascale Zumstein  Thorsten Assmann  Peter Kühn  Pascal A. Niklaus  Andreas Schuldt  Thomas Scholten 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(11):1439-1447

Although the protective role of leaf litter cover against soil erosion is known for a long time, little research has been conducted on the processes involved. Moreover, the impact of soil meso‐ and macrofauna within the litter layer on erosion control is not clear. To investigate how leaf litter cover and diversity as well as meso‐ and macrofauna influence sediment discharge in subtropical forest ecosystems, a field experiment has been carried out in Southeast China. A full‐factorial random design with 96 micro‐scale runoff plots and 7 domestic leaf species was established and erosion was triggered by a rainfall simulator. Our results demonstrate that leaf litter cover protects soil from erosion (?82 % sediment discharge on leaf covered plots) by rainfall and this protection is removed as litter decomposes. The protective effect is influenced by the presence or absence of soil meso‐ and macrofauna. Fauna presence increases soil erosion rates significantly by 58 %, while leaf species diversity shows a non‐significant negative trend. We assume that the faunal effect arises from arthropods slackening and processing the soil surface as well as fragmenting and decomposing the protecting leaf litter covers. Even though the diversity level did not show a significant influence, single leaf species in monocultures show rather different impacts on sediment discharge and thus, erosion control. In our experiment, runoff plots with leaf litter from Machilus thunbergii showed the highest sediment discharge (68.0 g m^?2) whereas plots with Cyclobalanopsis glauca showed the smallest rates (7.9 g m^?2). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Comparison of Phytoscreening and Direct‐Push‐Based Site Investigation at a Rural Megasite Contaminated with Chlorinated Ethenes          下载免费PDF全文

Arno Rein  Olaf Holm  Stefan Trapp  Steffen Popp‐Hofmann  Martin Bittens  Carsten Leven  Peter Dietrich 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2015,35(4):45-56

The reliable characterization of subsurface contamination of spatially extended contaminated sites is a challenging task, especially with an unknown history of land use. Conventional technologies often fail due to temporal and financial constraints and thus hinder the redevelopment of abandoned areas in particular. Here we compare two site screening techniques that can be applied quickly at relatively low cost, namely Direct Push (DP)‐based groundwater sampling and tree core sampling. The effectiveness of both methods is compared for a rural megasite contaminated with chlorinated hydrocarbons. Unexpected pollution hot spots could be identified using both of these methods, while tree coring even enabled the delineation of the contaminant plume flowing into an adjacent wetland inaccessible for DP units. Both methods showed a good agreement in revealing the spatial pattern of the contamination. The correlation between groundwater concentrations and equivalent concentrations in wood was linear and highly significant for trichloroethene. Correlation was less obvious for its metabolite cis‐dichloroethene, but still significant. As outcome of our study we recommend tree coring and for initial screening in combination with a DP sampling to retrieve quantitative data on groundwater pollutants in order to assess the contamination situation of a non‐ or only partly investigated site. The subsequent placement of monitoring wells for long‐term monitoring of contamination levels is recommended. A combination of methods would achieve more relevant information at comparable or possibly even lower efforts in comparison to a conventional site investigation.  相似文献   

A multi-technique approach for characterizing the SVN49 signal anomaly, part 2: chip shape analysis   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Steffen Thoelert  Michael Meurer  Stefan Erker  Oliver Montenbruck  André Hauschild  Pat Fenton 《GPS Solutions》2012,16(1):29-39

Due to a satellite internal reflection at the L5 test payload, the SVN49 (PRN1) GPS satellite exhibits a static multipath on the L1 and L2 signals, which results in elevation-dependent tracking errors for terrestrial receivers. Using a 30-m high-gain antenna, code and carrier phase measurements as well as raw in-phase and quadrature radio frequency samples have been collected during a series of zenith passes in mid-April 2010 to characterize the SVN49 multipath and its impact on common users. Following an analysis of the receiver tracking data and the IQ constellation provided in Part 1 of this study, the present Part 2 provides an in-depth investigation into chip shapes for the L1 and L2 signals. A single reflection model is found to be compatible with the observed chip shape distortions and key parameters for an elevation dependent multipath model are derived. A good agreement is found between multipath parameters derived independently from raw IQ-samples and measurements of a so-called Vision Correlator. The chip shapes and their observed variation with elevation can be used to predict the multipath response of different correlator types within a tracking receiver. The multipath model itself is suitable for implementation in a signal simulator and thus enables laboratory testing of actual receiver hardware.  相似文献   

A multi-technique approach for characterizing the SVN49 signal anomaly, part 1: receiver tracking and IQ constellation   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

André Hauschild  Oliver Montenbruck  Steffen Thoelert  Stefan Erker  Michael Meurer  Javad Ashjaee 《GPS Solutions》2012,16(1):19-28

A characterization of the signal anomaly of SVN49 is presented. A mathematical model is developed to relate the observed multipath to the internal signal reflection. The analyses provided are based on measurements, which have been collected during a dedicated tracking campaign with a 30-m dish antenna. Data on the L1 and L2 frequency have been collected with four different receivers. In addition, IQ samples have been recorded directly with a spectrum analyzer. The multipath combination of the receiver measurements on L1 and L2 is analyzed to demonstrate the effect of the signal reflections on different correlator spacing. The capability to suppress the signal reflection with receiver multipath mitigation methods is demonstrated. Finally, preliminary estimates of the attenuation, delay, and phase shift over elevation are obtained from an IQ sample analysis.  相似文献   

Selected topics in arctic atmosphere and climate     

William Perrie  Zhenxia Long  Hayley Hung  Amanda Cole  Alexandra Steffen  Ashu Dastoor  Dorothy Durnford  Jianmin Ma  Jan W. Bottenheim  Stoyka Netcheva  Ralf Staebler  James R. Drummond  N. T. O’Neill 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):35-58

This paper summarizes the main elements of four IPY projects that examine the Arctic Atmosphere. All four projects focus on present conditions with a view to anticipating possible climate change. All four investigate the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land interfacial surfaces. One project uses computer models to simulate the dynamics of the Arctic atmosphere, storms, and their interactions with the ocean and ice interface. Another project uses statistical methods to infer transports of pollutants as simulated in large-scale global atmospheric and oceanic models verifying results with available observations. A third project focuses on measurements of pollutants at the ice-ocean?Catmosphere interface, with reference to model estimates. The fourth project is concerned with multiple, high accuracy measurements at Eureka in the Canadian Archipelago. While these projects are distinctly different, led by different teams and interdisciplinary collaborators, with different technical approaches and methodologies, and differing objectives, they all strive to understand the processes of the Arctic atmosphere and climate, and to lay the basis for projections of future changes. Key findings include: ? Decreased sea ice leads to more intense storms, higher winds, reduced surface albedo, increased surface air temperature, and enhanced vertical mixing in the upper ocean. ? Arctic warming may affect toxic chemicals by remobilizing persistent organic pollutants and augmenting mercury deposition/retention in the environment. ? Changes in sea ice can dramatically change processes in and at the ice surface related to ozone, mercury and bromine oxide and related chemical/physical properties. ? Structure and properties of the Arctic atmospheric??troposphere to stratosphere??and tracking of transport of pollution and smoke plumes from mid-latitudes to the poles.  相似文献