Effect of spatially variable saturated hydraulic conductivity with non-stationary characteristics on the stability of reservoir landslides     

Xue  Yang  Wu  Yiping  Miao  Fasheng  Li  Linwei  Liao  Kang  Ou  Guangzhao 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(2):311-329

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Conventional landslide analyses, based on deterministic methods or simple random variable methods, cannot consider the spatial variability...  相似文献   

南方水库季节性热分层消亡对沉积物铁和磷迁移的影响——以南宁市天雹水库为例     

朱雅  李一平  唐春燕  李荣辉  魏尧  陈刚  郭晋川  罗凡  程一鑫  潘泓哲 《湖泊科学》2021,33(4):1153-1162

为了探究我国南方地区水库季节性热分层消亡前后沉积物铁和磷的迁移规律,于2019年11月2020年1月对天雹水库多点位(浅水区和深水区)水体理化指标进行原位监测,并利用薄膜扩散梯度技术(DGT)高分辨率获取沉积物有效态铁和磷的浓度分布.结果表明:(1)天雹水库沉积物有效态Fe和P浓度分别为4.67～18.72和0.003～0.073 mg/L,其中有效态Fe浓度较太湖、鄱阳湖和洞庭湖高出一个数量级,且浅水区沉积物中有效态Fe浓度较深水区高;(2)热分层消亡过程,沉积物有效态Fe和P浓度的时空差异大,浅水区有效态Fe浓度表现为Day14Day1Day32Day54,有效态P浓度表现为Day1Day14Day32Day54,而深水区有效态Fe和P浓度变幅较小甚至呈增长趋势,归因于浅水区热分层结构对气象因子扰动的响应速率快,水体垂向混合加剧了沉积物中Fe和P的释放;(3)沉积物水界面处有效态Fe和P的交换通量分别为6.58～31.59和0.008～0.086 mg/(m2·d),均自沉积物向上覆水中不断迁移,由于浅水区的热分层消亡时间早于深水区,浅水区内源Fe2+和PO34-的释放对冬季水质恶化的贡献较大,应密切关注水库浅水区沉积物内源释放对整个库区水质的影响.  相似文献   

Developing an intermediate-complexity projection model for China's fisheries: A case study of small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) in the Haizhou Bay,China     

Ming Sun  Yunzhou Li  Yiping Ren  Yong Chen 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(8):108-118

Projection models are commonly used to evaluate the impacts of fishing. However, previously developed projection tools were not suitable for China's fisheries as they are either overly complex and data-demanding or too simple to reflect the realistic management measures. Herein, an intermediate-complexity projection model was developed that could adequately describe fish population dynamics and account for management measures including mesh size limits, summer closure, and spatial closure. A two-patch operating model was outlined for the projection model and applied to the heavily depleted but commercially important small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) fishery in the Haizhou Bay, China, as a case study. The model was calibrated to realistically capture the fisheries dynamics with hindcasting. Three simulation scenarios featuring different fishing intensities based on status quo and maximum sustainable yield(MSY) were proposed and evaluated with projections. Stochastic projections were additionally performed to investigate the influence of uncertainty associated with recruitment strengths and the implementation of control targets. It was found that fishing at FMSY level could effectively rebuild the depleted stock biomass, while the stock collapsed rapidly in the status quo scenario. Uncertainty in recruitment and implementation could result in variabilities in management effects; but they did not much alter the management effects of the FMSY scenario. These results indicate that the lack of science-based control targets in fishing mortality or catch limits has hindered the achievement of sustainable fisheries in China. Overall, the presented work highlights that the developed projection model can promote the understanding of the possible consequences of fishing under uncertainty and is applicable to other fisheries in China.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal distribution of Konosirus punctatus spawning and nursing ground in the South Yellow Sea     

Xiangyu Long  Rong Wan  Zengguang Li  Yiping Ren  Pengbo Song  Yongjun Tian  Binduo Xu  Ying Xue 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(8):133-144

In recent years, Konosirus punctatus has accounted for a large portion in catch composition and become important economic species in the South Yellow Sea. However, the distribution of K. punctatus early life stages is still poorly understood. In this study, generalized additive models with Tweedie distribution were used to analyze the relationships between K. punctatus ichthyoplankton and environmental factors(longitude and latitude, sea surface temperature(SST), sea surface salinity(SSS) and depth), and predict distribution K. punctatus spawning ground and nursing ground, based on samplings collected in 6 months during 2014–2017. The results showed that K. punctatus' spawning ground were mainly distributed in central and north study area(from 33.0°N to 37.0°N).By comparison, the nursing ground shifted southward, which were approximately located along central and south coast of study area(from 31.7°N to 35.5°N). The optimal models identified that suitable SST, SSS and depth for eggs were 19–26°C, 25–30 and 9–23 m, respectively. The suitable SSS for larvae were 29–31. The K. punctatus spawning habit might have changed in the past decades, which was a response to increasing SST and fishing pressure. That needs to be proved in further study. The study provides references of conservation and exploitation for K. punctatus.  相似文献   

2012年7月下旬河套地区4次切变暴雨的对比分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

德勒格日玛  李一平  韩经纬  祁伏裕  王根 《中国沙漠》2014,34(1):233-243

应用日常预报业务中可以方便使用的常规观测资料、数值预报产品、卫星云图、加密自动站观测资料以及雷达资料等,从环流背景、流型配置、物理机制等方面对比分析了河套地区4次暴雨过程,旨在提高对暴雨的短期预报预测能力及短时强降水的临近预警能力。分析发现：（1）副热带高压西侧的偏南气流以及来自孟加拉湾的暖湿偏南气流在35°—40°N与来自高纬度的干冷的偏北气流多次交汇,水汽在该带中明显辐合,为河套地区持续性暴雨发生发展提供源源不断的水汽,提供水汽辐合上升动力条件;（2）暴雨落区与低层的显著流线出口区或急流出口区的位置、切变线的位置密切相关,暴雨一般落在高空急流的右侧、低空急流的左侧;（3）暴雨天气出现前一般会出现500 hPa以下θ随高度的增加而减少的特征;（4）暴雨天气出现前一般都会出现风随高度顺转的特征;（5）暴雨过程中地面辐合线起到动力抬升作用,触发中小尺度系统的生成和发展;（6）抬升凝结高度和自由对流高度都比较低,利于水汽凝结,而平衡高度较高,利于能量的积累,对于对流天气的预报有较好的指示意义。  相似文献   

盐城市雾发生规律及其预报   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

郭根华  王亦平  闵莉  蔡士来  朱汉苏 《气象》1999,25(6):35-38

依据盐城市１９８０￣１９９６年的雾资料进行了气候分析,将雾发生的天气形势归纳为弱高压和气旋倒槽两种类型;在此基础上,对单站要素进行了指标分析,由给出的５条指标采用概率加法原理进行雾发生的分析判断;并在气象信息综合分析处理系统（Ｍｉｃａｐｓ）上建立了春运期间雾预报系统,在实际应用中取得了较好的效果。  相似文献   

黄海中南部近岸海域春季鱼类浮游生物群落空间格局研究   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

肖欢欢  张崇良  徐宾铎  薛莹  刘鸿  李增光  任一平 《海洋学报》2017,39(8):34-47

根据2015年春季在黄海中南部近岸海域进行的鱼类浮游生物大型浮游生物网水平拖网数据,采用生态多样性指数和多元统计分析等方法,研究了该海域鱼类浮游生物的种类组成和群落空间格局及其与环境因子的关系。结果表明,本次调查共采集到鱼类浮游生物35种,其中鱼卵21种,仔稚鱼23种。鱼类浮游生物隶属于8目18科34属,优势种为鳀（Engraulis japonicus）、鲬（Platycephalus indicus）、鱼衔属（Callionymus spp.）和小黄鱼（Pseudosciaena polyactis）。其中,鳀和鱼衔属主要分布于海州湾渔场海域,鲬主要分布于吕泗渔场海域,小黄鱼多分布于吕泗渔场北部海域。生态类型包括半咸水型、沿岸型和近海型种类。聚类分析表明,鱼类浮游生物群落可划分为以鱼衔属、鳀为优势种的站位组A（主要分布于海州湾海域）、以小黄鱼、黄鲫（Setipinna taty）等为优势种的站位组B（主要位于江苏沿岸海域）和以鲬为优势种的站位组C（主要位于江苏沿岸-近海海域）,以站位组B的群落物种多样性指数和均匀度指数最高。各站位组的鱼类浮游生物的生态类型和适温类型组成不同,这与其所处的海域生境有关。典范对应分析（CCA）表明,影响春季黄海中南部鱼类浮游生物群落空间结构的主要环境因子为水深和表层温度。同时也受洋流、底质类型等多种因素的综合影响。研究结果初步揭示了黄海中南部近岸海域鱼类浮游生物群落的空间格局,可为今后科学制定该海域水产种质资源保护区、资源量化管理等资源养护管理措施提供科学依据与技术支撑。  相似文献   

黄河口及其邻近水域强壮箭虫密度的时空分布及其与环境因子的关系     

刘晓慧  薛莹  张崇良  任一平  徐宾铎 《海洋学报》2017,39(6):74-83

为探究强壮箭虫（Sagitta crassa）在黄河口及其邻近水域的时空分布特征及其与生物和非生物环境等因子的关系,本文依据2013—2014年在黄河口及其邻近水域6个航次的调查数据,采用丛生指标（I）、聚块性指标（A）和负二项分布参数的倒数（C_A）等聚集指标,分析了强壮箭虫的空间分布特征;应用广义可加模型（GAM）研究了强壮箭虫密度的时空分布和环境因子的关系。结果表明,黄河口及其邻近水域强壮箭虫平均密度为21.85 ind/m3,春、秋季高,冬、夏季低;其密度的空间分布以黄河入海口附近水域为密集中心,向远岸水域逐渐降低;强壮箭虫在黄河口及其邻近水域的聚集特征随密度的变化存在两次聚集和两次扩散;水深、表层水温和浮游桡足类密度是影响其密度时空分布的主要因子,总偏差解释率为55.11%,强壮箭虫密度随水深的增加而减小,随表层水温的升高先增加后减小,随桡足类密度的增加而增加。强壮箭虫密度受黄河口及其邻近水域环境因子变动的影响,具有明显的季节变化和空间分布规律。  相似文献   

Evaluating the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of larval fish assemblages in a coastal marine ecosystem (Haizhou Bay,China)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Zengguang Li  Zhenjiang Ye  Rong Wan  Yong Chen  Yongjun Tian  Yiping Ren  Hong Liu  Haisheng Hu  Robert Boenish 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(6)

In coastal marine ecosystems, spatial patterns of larval fish assemblages (LFAs) tend to exhibit geographic stability because of relatively stable spawning site selection and predictable oceanographic phenomena such as eddies. To evaluate the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of LFAs, we conducted a high spatiotemporal resolution ichthyoplankton survey from April to July in 2013 in the shallow waters (<20 m) of Haizhou Bay, China. Our analysis indicated three distinct assemblages, which were stable geographically but exhibited a gradual and directional change of species composition and abundance over our study period. Sea surface temperature was the most important environmental co‐variate for determining temporal variability of LFAs, likely owing to temperature effects of species composition and spawning period selection of adult fish, along with known temperature‐dependent survival rates of larval fish. Study of LFA spatiotemporal dynamics is essential for improved understanding of adult fish spawning behavior, and has potential to inform design and implementation of conservation and management measures (e.g. marine protected areas) in coastal systems.  相似文献   

南美地区铀矿床类型、成矿区带及找矿前景     

朱意萍  姚仲友  赵宇浩  赵晓丹  刘君安 《地质通报》2017,36(12):2185-2196

南美地区蕴藏了丰富的铀矿资源。通过对砂岩型、石英卵石砾岩型、钙质结砾岩型、火山岩型、花岗岩型、交代岩型6种类型11个矿区进行研究,总结了它们的地质特征,初步划分出中安第斯、阿根廷北部、丘布特和南美东部4个铀矿成矿带,优选出几处铀矿资源潜力区,希望对"走出去"铀矿地质研究工作提供参考。  相似文献