Generic 3D interpolation of Holocene base‐level rise and provision of accommodation space,developed for the Netherlands coastal plain and infilled palaeovalleys          下载免费PDF全文

Kay Koster  Jan Stafleu  Kim M. Cohen 《Basin Research》2017,29(6):775-797

We present an interpolation model that describes Holocene groundwater level rise and the creation of accommodation space in 3D in the Rhine‐Meuse delta – the Netherlands. The model area (ca. 12 400 km²) covers two palaeovalleys of Late Pleistocene age (each 30 km wide) and the overlying Holocene deposits of the Rhine‐Meuse delta, the Holland coastal plain, and the Zuiderzee former lagoon. Water table rise is modelled from 10 800 to 1000 cal. BP, making use of age‐depth relations based on 384 basal peat index points, and producing output in the form of stacked palaeo groundwater surfaces, groundwater age‐depth curves, and voxel sets. These products allow to resolve (i) regional change and variations of inland water table slopes, (ii) spatial differences in the timing and pacing of transgression, and (iii) analysis of interplay of coastal, fluvial and subsidence controls on the provision of accommodation space. The interpolation model is a multi‐parameter trend function, to which a 3D‐kriging procedure of the residuals is added. This split design deploys a generic approach for modelling provision of accommodation space in deltas and coastal lowlands, aiming to work both in areas of intermediate data availability and in the most data‐rich environments. Major provision of accommodation space occurred from 8500 cal BP onwards, but a different evolution occurred in each of the two palaeovalleys. In the northern valley, creation of accommodation space began to stall at 7500 cal BP, while in the southern valley provision of new accommodation space in considerable quantities continued longer. The latter is due to the floodplain gradient that was maintained by the Rhine, which distinguishes the fluvial deltaic environment from the rest of the back‐barrier coastal plain. The interpolation results allow advanced mapping and investigation of apparent spatial differences in Holocene aggradation in larger coastal sedimentary systems. Furthermore, they provide a means to generate first‐order age information with centennial precision for 3D geological subsurface models of Holocene deltas and valley fills. As such, the interpolation is of use in studies into past and present land subsidence and into low land sedimentation.  相似文献   

Using Decision Analysis to Include Climate Change in Water Resources Decision Making   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Benjamin F. Hobbs  Philip T. Chao  Boddu N. Venkatesh 《Climatic change》1997,37(1):177-202

Is the prospect of possible climate change relevant to water resources decisions being made today? And, if so, how ought that prospect be considered? These questions can be addressed by decision analysis, which we apply to two investments in the Great Lakes region: a regulatory structure for Lake Erie, and breakwaters to protect Presque Isle State Park, PA. These two decisions have the elements that potentially make climate change relevant: long lived, "one shot" investments; benefits or costs that are affected by climate-influenced variables; and irreversibilities. The decision analyses include the option of waiting to obtain better information, using Bayesian analysis to detect whether climate change has altered water supplies. The analyses find that beliefs about climate change can indeed affect optimal decisions. Furthermore, ignoring the possibility of climate change can lead to significant opportunity losses—in the cases here, as much as 10% or more of the construction cost. Yet the consequences of climate uncertainty for Great Lakes management do not appear to be qualitatively different from those of other risks, and thus do not deserve different treatment. The methods of sensitivity analysis, scenario planning, and decision analysis, all of which are encouraged under US federal guidelines for water planning, are applicable. We recommend increased use of decision trees and Bayesian analysis to consider not only climate change risks, but also other important social and environmental uncertainties.  相似文献   

Equatorial scintillation     

John R. Koster 《Planetary and Space Science》1972,20(12):1999-2014

Equatorial scintillations have been observed at Legon, Ghana for nearly 20 yr. The occurrence characteristics of the scintillations are reviewed, and the physical characteristics of the electron density irregularities summarized. A much more comprehensive summary of the seasonal variation of scintillation is given, and it is found to be remarkably similar to the variations in thermospheric temperature. Evidence for the suppression of scintillation during magnetic disturbances is given. Curves for the daily variation of the Faraday rotation angle φ are presented and their unusual post-sunset behaviour noted. It is suggested that this can be explained in terms of a theory presented by Rishbeth, in which the F region ionization moves with nearly the full velocity of the neutral atmospheric wind at night, after the E region conductivity has fallen to a relatively low value. This can account for the observed drift velocity of the irregularities. The rapid increase in the post-sunset horizontal velocity of the ionization together with the observed vertical rise, can account for the variations of φ. It is further suggested that the large gradients in the density and drift velocity of the ionization resulting from the mechanism suggested by Rishbeth give rise to the production of the observed F region irregularities in electron density which cause equatorial scintillation.  相似文献   

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions     

Godefroy Grosjean  Sabine Fuss  Nicolas Koch  Benjamin L. Bodirsky  Stéphane De Cara  William Acworth 《Climate Policy》2018,18(2):151-169

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.  相似文献   

Dynamics of DNAPL Penetration into Fractured Porous Media     

Benjamin Ross  Ning Lu 《Ground water》1999,37(1):140-147

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Risk-Based Corrective Fiction     

Benjamin Ross 《Ground water》1999,37(6):801-802

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Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Weiqing Han  Gerald A. Meehl  Detlef Stammer  Aixue Hu  Benjamin Hamlington  Jessica Kenigson  Hindumathi Palanisamy  Philip Thompson 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(1):217-250

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.  相似文献   

Multiphase Flow in Permeable Media. A Pore‐Scale Perspective          下载免费PDF全文

Benjamin J. Rostron 《Ground water》2018,56(5):688-689

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Comparing threshold definition techniques for rainfall‐induced landslides: A national assessment using radar rainfall          下载免费PDF全文

Benjamin Postance  John Hillier  Tom Dijkstra  Neil Dixon 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(2):553-560

Translational landslides and debris flows are often initiated during intense or prolonged rainfall. Empirical thresholds aim to classify the rain conditions that are commonly associated with landslide occurrence and therefore improve understating of these hazards and predictive ability. Objective techniques that are used to determine these thresholds are likely to be affected by the length of the rain record used, yet this is not routinely considered. Moreover, remotely sensed spatially continuous rainfall observations are under‐exploited. This study compares and evaluates the effect of rain record length on two objective threshold selection techniques in a national assessment of Scotland using weather radar data. Thresholds selected by ‘threat score’ are sensitive to rain record length whereas, in a first application to landslides, ‘optimal point’ (OP) thresholds prove relatively consistent. OP thresholds increase landslide detection and may therefore be applicable in early‐warning systems. Thresholds combining 1‐ and 12‐day antecedence variables best distinguish landslide initiation conditions and indicate that Scottish landslides may be initiated by lower rain accumulation and intensities than previously thought. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Study on the urban heat island effects and its relationship with surface biophysical characteristics using MODIS imageries     

Yongnian Zeng  Wei Huang  F. Benjamin Zhan  Honghui Zhang  Huimin Liu 《地球空间信息科学学报》2010,13(1):1-7

This study assesses surface urban heat island (UHI) and its associated surface physical characteristics using remote sensing approaches. TERRA/MODIS images acquired in 2005 in three different seasons were selected to generate land surface tem-perature and surface characteristics for the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metropolitan area in China. The intensity of urban heat is-land effects and its seasonal variations were examined. The result showed that UHI effects were significant both in the summer and the spri...  相似文献