Statistically downscaled probabilistic multi‐model ensemble projections of precipitation change in a watershed     

Muhammad Z. Hashmi  Asaad Y. Shamseldin  Bruce W. Melville 《水文研究》2013,27(7):1021-1032

This paper presents the development of a probabilistic multi‐model ensemble of statistically downscaled future projections of precipitation of a watershed in New Zealand. Climate change research based on the point estimates of a single model is considered less reliable for decision making, and multiple realizations of a single model or outputs from multiple models are often preferred for such purposes. Similarly, a probabilistic approach is preferable over deterministic point estimates. In the area of statistical downscaling, no single technique is considered a universal solution. This is due to the fact that each of these techniques has some weaknesses, owing to its basic working principles. Moreover, watershed scale precipitation downscaling is quite challenging and is more prone to uncertainty issues than downscaling of other climatological variables. So, multi‐model statistical downscaling studies based on a probabilistic approach are required. In the current paper, results from the three well‐reputed statistical downscaling methods are used to develop a Bayesian weighted multi‐model ensemble. The three members of the downscaling ensemble of this study belong to the following three broad categories of statistical downscaling methods: (1) multiple linear regression, (2) multiple non‐linear regression, and (3) stochastic weather generator. The results obtained in this study show that the new strategy adopted here is promising because of many advantages it offers, e.g. it combines the outputs of multiple statistical downscaling methods, provides probabilistic downscaled climate change projections and enables the quantification of uncertainty in these projections. This will encourage any future attempts for combining the results of multiple statistical downscaling methods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fluid-absent (dehydration) melting of biotite in metapelites in the early stages of crustal anatexis   总被引：48，自引：1，他引：48  

Nicole Le Breton  Alan Bruce Thompson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1988,99(2):226-237

  相似文献   

Cations in olivine,Part 1: Calcium partitioning and calcium-magnesium distribution between olivines and coexisting melts,with petrologic applications   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Amy J. G. Jurewicz  E. Bruce Watson 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1988,99(2):176-185

  相似文献   

Fluids in the lithosphere, 2. Experimental constraints on CO₂ transport in dunite and quartzite at elevated P-T conditions with implications for mantle and crustal decarbonation processes     

James M. Brenan  E. Bruce Watson 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1988,91(1-2)

In a series of experiments at 0.5–1.3 GPa and 1050–1200°C we have monitored the transport, via crack propagation, of CO₂ into well-annealed olivine and quartz aggregates. The objectives were to determine (1) the extent and rate of fluid penetration; (2) the effect of varying both P-T conditions and microstructure; and (3) the fluid penetration pathways. Experiments on CO₂ penetration into dunite annealed in the absence of MgO indicate rapid and pervasive fluid transport on a grain-dimension scale, but a limited penetration distance ( 1 mm). Additional experiments on dunite annealed in the presence of MgO (either dispersed or present at both ends), however, resulted in CO₂ penetration that was both pervasive on the scale of individual grains and almost always completely through the 5 mm long samples. The abundance of fine (10 μm) grains in the MgO-free dunite, in contrast to the much larger grain sizes of the samples annealed with MgO present, suggests the difference in fluid penetration behavior may arise because the strength variation in dunite scales with the grain size. Effects arising from changes in olivine point defect chemistry, however, are an additional possibility. The response of synthetic quartzite to CO₂ overpressure is distinct from that of dunite: Quartzite experiences rapid and complete penetration of CO₂, via a macroscopically visible system of transgranular fractures, over the range of P-T conditions investigated.The small amount of porosity ( 2–3%) present in most rock samples fabricated for this study, lacks three-dimensional connectivity, thus precluding any enhanced fluid penetration via porous flow. Pores could possibly enhance fluid penetration as the result of a small reduction in resistance to fracture, but the probable abundance of strength-controlling flaws in natural rocks is likely to produce similar behavior.The results of our experiments on olivine and olivine + MgO suggest that the transport of pressurized CO₂ in very olivine-rich mantle environments will be pervasive on the scale of individual grains and its extent may be dependent on rock microstructure and/or crystal chemical effects. Such pervasive fluid transport, perhaps associated with magma decarbonation, may have interesting implications for both magma transport and local LREE enrichment of adjacent mantle wall-rock. The ease with which quartzite is penetrated by CO₂ at the conditions of our experiments underscores the possible role of decarbonation reactions in crustal permeability-enhancement processes.  相似文献   

Geochemical comparison between minettes and kersantites from the Western European Hercynian orogen: trace element and PbSrNd isotope constraints on their origin     

Laurent Turpin  Danielle Velde  Guy Pinte   《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1988,87(1-2)

Trace element and isotopic characteristics of late Carboniferous to early Permian minettes and kersantites have been determined. These lamprophyres have been sampled throughout the Western European Hercynian orogen, from Brittany to the west to Schwarzwald to the east. In spite of sharp petrological differences reflected by mineralogy and major element geochemistry, minettes and kersantites exhibit close identity with respect to trace element and isotopic features. These features comprise enrichment in incompatible elements, highCs/Rb and lowCe/Pb ratios, Ta and Ti relative depletion, high abundance in transition elements and highNi/Mg ratios. Pb isotope ratios are undistinguishable from those measured on Hercynian continental crust. Initial¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios are between0.5120 (ε_i −5) and0.5122 (ε_i −1) for minettes and kersantites whereas initial⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios vary between 0.7055–0.710 for minettes and 0.707–0.708 for kersantites. No simple mixing relations are visible on RbSr and SmNd isochron diagrams. The exceptional homogeneity of these geochemical characteristics along a 1000 km traverse does not allow for an hypothesis of enrichment through upper level assimilation and thus leads to propose that these rocks originated through melting of a mantle enriched by recycling of crustal material.  相似文献   

Comparison of amplitude decay rates in reflection,refraction, and local earthquake records     

Bruce S. Gibson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,128(1-2):309-331

Three types of seismic data recorded near Coalinga, California were analyzed to study the behavior of scattered waves: 1) aftershocks of the May 2, 1983 earthquake, recorded on verticalcomponent seismometers deployed by the USGS; 2) regional refraction profiles using large explosive sources recorded on essentially the same arrays above; 3) three common-midpoint (CMP) reflection surveys recorded with vibrator sources over the same area. Records from each data set were bandpassed filtered into 5 Hz wide passbands (over the range of 1–25 Hz), corrected for geometric spreading, and fit with an exponential model of amplitude decay. Decay rates were expressed in terms of inverse codaQ (Q _c ^–1 ).Q _c ^–1 values for earthquake and refraction data are generally comparable and show a slight decrease with increasing frequency. Decay rates for different source types recorded on proximate receivers show similar results, with one notable exception. One set of aftershocks shows an increase ofQ _c ^–1 with frequency.Where the amplitude decay rates of surface and buried sources are similar, the coda decay results are consistent with other studies suggesting the importance of upper crustal scattering in the formation of coda. Differences in the variation ofQ _c ^–1 with frequency can be correlated with differences in geologic structure near the source region, as revealed by CMP-stacked reflection data. A more detailed assessment of effects such as the depth dependence of scattered contributions to the coda and the role of intrinsic attenuation requires precise control of source-receiver field geometry and the study of synthetic seismic data calculated for velocity models developed from CMP reflection data.  相似文献   

Generation of Hydrogen Gas as a Result of Drilling Within the Saturated Zone   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bruce N. Bjornstad  James P. McKinley  Todd O. Stevens  Shirley A. Rawson  James K. Fredrickson  Philip E. Long 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》1994,14(4):140-147

Hydrogen gas was discovered within the steel casing above standing water in a percussion-drilled borehole on the Hanlord Site in south-central Washington state. In situ measurements of the borehole fluids indicated anoxic, low-Eh (<-400 mV) conditions. Ground water sampled from adjacent wells in the same formation indicated that the ground water was oxygenated. H₂ was generated during percussion drilling, due to the decomposition of borehole waters as a result of aqueous reactions with drilled sediment and steel from the drilling tools or casing. The generation of H₂ within percussion-drilled boreholes that extend below the water table may be more common than previously realized. The ambient concentration of H₂ produced during drilling was limited by microbial activity within the casing-resident fluids. H₂ was generated abiotically in the laboratory, whereby sterilized borehole slurry samples produced 100 times more H₂ than unsterilizcd samples. It appears that H₂ is metabolized by microorganisms and concentrations might be significantly greater if not for microbial metabolism.  相似文献   

Genetic structure of bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) populations in Chesapeake Bay     

Raymond P. Morgan  Bruce M. Baker  James H. Howard 《Estuaries and Coasts》1995,18(3):482-493

To determine the genetic structure of the bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) within Chesapeake Bay, 16 isozyme systems encoding 21 loci for 20 population were examined using horizontal starch gel electrophoresis. Contingency Chisquare analysis revealed significant allelic frequency differences at nine loci (AAT-1, AAT-2, ALD-1, CPK-2, GAP-1, GLY-1, LDH-1, MDH-1, and MDH-2). Two loci, ALD-1 and MDH-1, were responsible for nine of 14 tests not conforming to Hardy-Weinberg expectations, with some of these deviations attributed to possible scoring and/or sampling error. Estimates for mean average heterozygosity were relatively high, ranging from 0.40 to 0.096, with 33–57% of the loci polymorphic. A low F_st value (0.041) along with high genetic identity estimates (I=0.997) indicated little substructuring of bay anchovy populations within Chesapeake Bay.  相似文献   

INSTITUTIONAL OBSTACLES TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN BALI, INDONESIA     

Bruce Mitchell 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》1995,15(2):145-156

Developing and implementing sustainable development strategies involve overcoming many obstacles. The experience in Bali, Indonesia, illustrates some key institutional challenges which most countries must handle to achieve sustainable development, such as realising cross-sectoral integration, combining top-down and bottom-up planning, and creating credibility for a new policy initiative. Indonesia in general and Bali in particular has, in theory, considerable capability to implement sustainable development. However, as in most countries, effective practice does not always follow from theoretical potential. Strengths and weaknesses related to institutional challenges are identified and assessed, and their general implications are considered. Some key implications are the need to develop sustainable development strategies which reflect the conditions and needs specific to the targetted region, and to address different national and regional perspectives.  相似文献   

Energy market failure in road transport: Is there scope for ‘no regrets’ greenhouse gas reduction?     

Barry Naughten  Bruce Bowen  Tony Beck 《Climatic change》1993,25(3-4):271-288

The Australian Government policy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions announced in 1990 includes exploring the scope for immediate, low cost reductions. Such measures can be taken as including ‘no regrets’ policies: those that, in addition to mitigating potential climate change, confer economic gains (including other environmental benefits) which exceed their costs. Some possible ‘no regrets’ opportunities and policies are identified relevant to energy use by the road transport sector over the period to 2020. The MARKALMENSA multi-period linear programming model of the Australian energy sector is used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of these policies.  相似文献