Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Agathe Germe  Matthieu Chevallier  David Salas y Mélia  Emilia Sanchez-Gomez  Christophe Cassou 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2519-2538

The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.  相似文献   

Streamflow response to regional climate model output in the mountainous watershed: a case study from the Swiss Alps     

Kazi?RahmanEmail author  Christophe?Etienne  Ana?Gago-Silva  Chetan?Maringanti  Martin?Beniston  Anthony?Lehmann 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4357-4369

Regional climate model (RCM) outputs are often used in hydrological modeling, in particular for streamflow forecasting. The heterogeneity of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation often limits the ability of the hydrological model performance. This paper assessed the sensitivity of RCM outputs from the PRUDENCE project and their performance in reproducing the streamflow. The soil and water assessment tool was used to simulate the streamflow of the Rhone River watershed located in the southwestern part of Switzerland, with the climate variables obtained from four RCMs. We analyzed the difference in magnitude of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed with respect to the observed values from the meteorological stations. In addition, we also focused on the impact of the grid resolution on model performance, by analyzing grids with resolutions of 50 × 50 and 25 × 25 km². The variability of the meteorological inputs from various RCMs is quite severe in the studied watershed. Among the four different RCMs, the Danish Meteorological Institute provided the best performance when simulating runoff. We found that temperature lapse rate is significantly important in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated watershed as compared to other variables like precipitation, and wind speed for hydrological performance. Therefore, emphasis should be given to minimum and maximum temperature in the bias correction studies for downscaling climatic data for impact modeling in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated complex watersheds.  相似文献   

Paleoclimate and Paleoenvironment of Gonghe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, During the Lastdeglacial: Weathering, Erosion and Vegetation Cover Affect Clay Mineral Formation     

SUN Qingfeng  Christophe COLIN 《《地质学报》英文版》2014,88(2):647-660

With the analysis of the sources and formation mechanism of the clay minerals in the sediment core from the Dalianhai lake in the Gonghe Basin,northeastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau,clay mineral composition proxies,grain-size and carbonate contents have been employed for high-resolution study in order to reconstruct East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） over the northeastern Tibet-Qinghai Plateau during the lastdeglacial.The study also extended to establish a relationship between vegetation cover changes and erosion during the last 14.5 ka with pollen record and clay mineral proxies.Smectite/kaolinite and smectite/（illite＋chlorite） ratios allow us to assess hydrolysis conditions in lowlands and/or physical erosion process in highlands of the Gonghe Basin.Before 12.9 Cal ka BP,both mineralogical ratios show low values indicative of strong physical erosion in the basin with a dominant cold and dry phase.After 12.9 Cal ka BP,an increase in both mineralogical ratios indicates enhanced chemical weathering in the basin associated with a warm and humid climate.The beginning of Holocene is characterized by high smectite/（illite＋chlorite） and smectite/kaolinite ratios that is synchronous as with deposition of many peat laminae,implying the best warm and humid conditions specifically between 8.0 to 5.5 Cal ka BP.The time interval after 5.0 Cai ka BP is characterized by a return to high physical erosion and low chemical weathering with dry climate conditions in the basin.Comparing variations of clay mineral assemblages with previous pollen results,we observe a rapid response in terms of chemical weathering and physical erosion intensity to a modification of the vegetation cover in the basin.  相似文献   

The challenge of dating early pleistocene fossil teeth by the combined uranium series–electron spin resonance method: the Venta Micena palaeontological site (Orce,Spain)     

Mathieu Duval  Christophe Falguères  Jean‐Jacques Bahain  Rainer Grün  Qingfeng Shao  Maxime Aubert  John Hellstrom  Jean‐Michel Dolo  Jordi Agusti  Bienvenido Martínez‐Navarro  Paul Palmqvist  Isidro Toro‐Moyano 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(6):603-615

The palaeontological site of Venta Micena (Orce, Andalusia, Spain) lies in the eastern sector of the Guadix–Baza basin, one of the best documented areas in Europe for Plio‐Pleistocene biostratigraphy. The combination of biochronological and palaeomagnetic results, combined with the radiometric data obtained for Atapuerca Sima del Elefante, indicated that the Venta Micena stratum was formed between the Jaramillo and Olduvai palaeomagnetic events, most likely between 1.22 and 1.77 Ma. Five fossil teeth from two outcrops (sites A and B) were selected to assess the potential of combined uranium series–electron spin resonance (US‐ESR) dating of Early Pleistocene sites. Although the US‐ESR results of the first outcrop showed a large scatter between the three teeth, the mean age of 1.37 ± 0.24 Ma can be considered a reasonable age estimate for Venta Micena. The mean ESR age of 0.62 ± 0.03 Ma obtained for site B seems to be a severe underestimation when compared with the independent age control. This underestimation is attributed to a relative recent U‐mobilization event that led to some U‐leaching. The results show that any ESR age calculations of old samples are extremely sensitive to variations in the measured ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U ratios in dental tissues. Although the results demonstrate that ESR can in principle be applied to Early Pleistocene sites, they also reveal the complexity of dating such old teeth. It is necessary to continue research in several directions, such as study of the behaviour of ESR signals in old teeth and understanding recent U‐mobilization processes, to improve the reliability of the combined US‐ESR dating method applied to Early Pleistocene times, a period for which the number of available numerical dating techniques is very limited. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Sfax L6 chondrite: A new fall from Tunisia     

M. Amouri  N. Laridhi Ouazaa  M. Christophe Michel-Lvy  F. Rekhiss 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1991,26(1):11-12

Abstract— The Sfax meteorite fell on 16 October 1989. Four pieces totaling less than 10 kg were recovered from a much larger meteoroid, according to the cosmogenic gas measurements. It is an L6 chondrite, strongly degassed and shocked, with olivine of composition Fa24.  相似文献   

Towards a 4D topographic view of the Norwegian sea margin   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Morten Smelror  John Dehls  Jrg Ebbing  Eiliv Larsen  Erik R. Lundin   ystein Nordgulen  Per Terje Osmundsen  Odleiv Olesen  Dag Ottesen  Christophe Pascal  Thomas F. Redfield  Leif Rise 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,58(1-4):382

The present-day topography/bathymetry of the Norwegian mainland and passive margin is a product of complex interactions between large-scale tectonomagmatic and climatic processes that can be traced back in time to the Late Silurian Caledonian Orogeny. The isostatic balance of the crust and lithosphere was clearly influenced by orogenic thickening during the Caledonian Orogeny, but was soon affected by post-orogenic collapse including overprinting of the mountain root, and was subsequently affected by a number of discrete extensional events eventually leading to continental break-up in Early Eocene time. In the mid-Jurassic the land areas experienced deep erosion in the warm and humid climate, forming a regional paleic surface. Rift episodes in the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous, with differential uplift along major fault zones, led to more pronounced topographic contrasts during the Cretaceous, and thick sequences of clastic sediments accumulated in the subsiding basins on the shelf. Following renewed extension in the Late Cretaceous, a new paleic surface developed in the Paleocene. Following break-up the margin has largely subsided thermally, but several Cenozoic shortening events have generated positive contraction structures. On the western side of the on-shore drainage divide, deeper erosion took place along pre-existing weakness zones, creating the template of the present day valleys and fjords. In the Neogene the mainland and large portions of the Barents Sea were uplifted. It appears that this uplift permitted ice caps to nucleate and accumulate during the Late Pliocene northern hemisphere climatic deterioration. The Late Pliocene to Pleistocene glacial erosion caused huge sediment aprons to be shed on to the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea margins. Upon removal of the ice load the landmass adjusted isostatically, and this still continues today.  相似文献   

Correction to: Estimating rockfall release frequency from blocks deposited in protection barriers,growth disturbances in trees,and trajectory simulations     

Farvacque  Manon  Corona  Christophe  Lopez-Saez  Jerome  Mainieri  Robin  Stoffel  Markus  Bourrier  Franck  Eckert  Nicolas  Toe  David 《Landslides》2022,19(1):263-264

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Impact of the winter North-Atlantic weather regimes on subtropical sea-surface height variability     

Nicolas Barrier  Anne-Marie Treguier  Christophe Cassou  Julie Deshayes 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1159-1171

Interannual variability of subtropical sea-surface-height (SSH) anomalies, estimated by satellite and tide-gauge data, is investigated in relation to wintertime daily North-Atlantic weather regimes. Sea-level anomalies can be viewed as proxies for the subtropical gyre intensity because of the intrinsic baroclinic structure of the circulation. Our results show that the strongest correlation between SSH and weather regimes is found with the so-called Atlantic-Ridge (AR) while no significant values are obtained for the other regimes, including those related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), known as the primary actor of the Atlantic dynamics. Wintertime AR events are characterized by anticyclonic wind anomalies off Europe leading to a northward shift of the climatological wind-stress curl. The latter affects subtropical SSH annual variability by altered Sverdrup balance and ocean Rossby wave dynamics propagating westward from the African coast towards the Caribbean. The use of a simple linear planetary geostrophic model allows to quantify those effects and confirms the primary importance of the winter season to explain the largest part of SSH interannual variability in the Atlantic subtropical gyre. Our results open new perspectives in the comprehension of North-Atlantic Ocean variability emphasizing the role of AR as a driver of interannual variability at least of comparable importance to NAO.  相似文献   

Thermal resonance of the atmosphere to SST anomalies. Implications for the Antarctic circumpolar wave     

A. COLIN DE VERDIÈRE  M. L. BLANC 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2001,53(3):403-424

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Spectroscopic anatomy of a meteor trail cross section with the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope     

Peter Jenniskens  Emmanuel Jehin  Remi A. Cabanac  Christophe O. Laux  Iain D. Boyd 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2004,39(4):609-616

Abstract— A meteor spectrum was recorded serendipitously at the European Southern Obrervatory (ESO) Very Large Telescope (VLT) during a long exposure in long‐slit spectroscopic mode with FORS1. The ?8 magnitude fireball crossed the narrow 1Î × 7î slit during the observation of a high z supernova in normal service mode operation on May 12, 2002. The spectrum covered the range of 637–1050 nm, where the meteor's air plasma emissions from N₂, N, and O dominate. Carbon atom emission was not detected in the relatively unexplored wavelength range above 900 nm, but the observed upper limit was only 3 sigma less than expected from the dissociation of atmospheric CO₂. The meteor trail was resolved along the slit, and the emission had a Gaussian distribution with a dimension of FWHM = 7.0 (±0.4) * sin(α) * H (km)/90 m, where α is the unknown angle between the orientation of the meteor path and slit and H the assumed altitude of the meteor in km. To our knowledge, this is the first observation of a spatially resolved spectrum across a meteor trail. Unlike model predictions, the plasma excitation temperature varied only from about 4,300 to 4,365 K across the trail, based on the ratio of atomic and molecular nitrogen emissions. Unfortunately, we conclude that this was because the meteor at 100 km altitude was out of focus.  相似文献