2021年6-9月广西异常高温成因分析     

赖晟  陈思蓉  陆甲  陆虹 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):111-117

2021年6-9月广西经历了1951年以来最高的月平均气温,大范围高温天气频发.利用1961-2021年广西国家地面气象观测站日平均气温和日最高气温观测资料、1991-2021年ERA5再分析资料和西太平洋副热带高压指数资料,对此次广西异常高温的特征和成因进行了研究分析.结果 表明,气候变暖是导致此次高温事件的重要气候背景,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏强位置偏西偏北、中纬度西风带扰动影响偏北以及热带气旋影响偏弱是造成广西气温异常偏高的主要原因.  相似文献   

基于CWRF的中国近海热带气旋集合模拟及其对物理参数化方案的敏感性研究          下载免费PDF全文

Wenru Shi  Haishan Chen  Xin-Zhong Liang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(1):22-26

为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势且均存在低估,但相较ERI,CWRF的降尺度技术和集合模拟可以再现更多的热带气旋,显著减少低估.年际变化结果提升最为明显,它对积云方案最为敏感,其次是边界层,陆面和辐射方案,对云和微物理方案较弱.该研究为应用CWRF理解和预报热带气旋提供了参考.  相似文献   

机器学习在广西台风极大风速预报中的应用     

吴玉霜  黄小燕  陈家正  赵华生 《气象研究与应用》2021,42(4):26-31

以1980-2020年广西台风期间桂林、梧州、龙州、南宁、玉林等5个气象观测站的地面日极大风速为研究对象,采用多元线性回归(MR)、支持向量机(SVM)、模糊神经网络(FNN)等三种较为常用的线性和非线性方法分别进行预报建模,对2011-2020年共10a独立样本的检验.结果 表明,在全样本风速预报的平均绝对误差上,FNN模型对桂林站、梧州站、龙州站、玉林站共4个站点预报的平均绝对误差最小,总体预报精度最好,MR预报模型则对南宁站有较好的预报能力,SVM模型预报效果总体偏差.对于6级以上大风的TS评分、命中率、空报率和预报偏差等4个评估指标的统计,FNN模型的预测精度最高且相对稳定,MR方案次之,SVM在三种方案中预报效果最差.FNN方法对广西台风期间地面日极大风速的预报有较好的参考作用.  相似文献   

The Digital Belt and Road program in support of regional sustainability     

Huadong Guo  Yubao Qiu  Massimo Menenti  Fang Chen  Paul F. Uhlir 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(7):657-669

The Belt and Road initiative has a significant focus on infrastructure, trade, and economic development across a vast region, and it also provides significant opportunities for sustainable development. The combined pressure of climate variability, intensified use of resources, and the fragility of ecosystems make it very challenging, however, to achieve future sustainability. To develop the path in a sustainable way, it is important to have a comprehensive understanding of these issues across nations and evaluate them in a scientific and well-informed approach. In this context, the Digital Belt and Road (DBAR) program was initiated as an international venture to share expertise, knowledge, technologies, and data to demonstrate the role of Earth observation science and technology and big Earth data applications to support large-scale development. In this paper, we identify pressing challenges, present the research priorities and foci of the DBAR program, and propose solutions where big Earth data can make significant contributions. This paper calls for further joint actions and collaboration to build a digital silk road in support of sustainable development at national, regional and global levels.  相似文献   

Performance of GPS and GPS/SINS navigation in the CE-5T1 skip re-entry mission     

Meng Wang  Tao Shan  Lin Ma  Ran Tao  Chunliang Chen 《GPS Solutions》2018,22(2):56

A CE-5T1 spacecraft completed a high-speed skip re-entry to the earth after a circumlunar flight on October 31, 2014. In addition to the strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS), a lightweight GPS receiver with rapid acquisition was developed as a navigation sensor in the re-entry capsule. The GPS receiver effectively solved the poor accuracy problem of long-term navigation using only the SINS. In contrast to ground users and low-earth-orbit spacecraft, numerous factors, including high altitude and kinetic characteristics in high-speed skip re-entry, are important for GPS positioning feasibility and were presented in accordance with the flight data. GPS solutions started at nearly 4900 km orbital altitude during the phases of re-entry process. These solutions were combined by an inertial measurement unit in a loosely coupled integrated navigation method and SINS navigation initialization. A simplified GPS/SINS navigation filter for limited resources was effectively developed and implemented on board for spacecraft application. Flight data estimation analyses, including trajectory, attitude, position distribution of GPS satellite, and navigation accuracy, were presented. The estimated accuracy of position was better than 42 m, and the accuracy of velocity was better than 0.1 m/s.  相似文献   

A modified mix-differenced approach for estimating multi-GNSS real-time satellite clock offsets     

Yongchang Chen  Yunbin Yuan  Baocheng Zhang  Teng Liu  Wenwu Ding  Qingsong Ai 《GPS Solutions》2018,22(3):72

A modified mixed-differenced approach for estimating multi-GNSS real-time clock offsets is presented. This approach, as compared to the earlier presented mixed-differenced approach which uses epoch-differenced and undifferenced observations, further adds a satellite-differenced process. The proposed approach, based on real-time orbit products and a mix of epoch-differenced and satellite-differenced observations to estimate only satellite clock offsets and tropospheric zenith wet delays, has fewer estimated parameters than other approaches, and thus its implementing procedure is efficient and can be performed and extended easily. To obtain high accuracy, the approach involves three steps. First, the high-accuracy tropospheric zenith wet delay of each station is estimated using mixed-differenced carrier phase observations. Second, satellite clock offset changes between adjacent epochs are estimated using also mixed-differenced carrier phase observations. Third, the satellite clock offsets at the initial epoch are estimated using satellite-differenced pseudorange observations. Finally, the initial epoch clock results and clock offset changes are concatenated to obtain the clock results of the current epoch. To validate the real-time satellite clock results, multi-GNSS post-processing clock products from IGS ACs were selected for comparison. From the comparison, the standard deviations of the GPS, GLONASS, BeiDou and Galileo systems clock results are approximately 0.1–0.4 ns, except for the BeiDou GEO satellites. The root mean squares are about 0.4–2.3 ns, which are similar to those of other international real-time products. When the clock estimates were assessed based on a pseudo-kinematic PPP procedure, the positioning accuracies in the East, North and Up components reach 5.6, 5.5 and 7.6 cm, respectively, which meet the centimeter level and are comparable to the application of other products.  相似文献   

Beidou satellite maneuver thrust force estimation for precise orbit determination     

Jing Qiao  Wu Chen 《GPS Solutions》2018,22(2):42

Beidou satellites, especially geostationary earth orbit (GEO) and inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellites, need to be frequently maneuvered to keep them in position due to various perturbations. The satellite ephemerides are not available during such maneuver periods. Precise estimation of thrust forces acting on satellites would provide continuous ephemerides during maneuver periods and could significantly improve orbit accuracy immediately after the maneuver. This would increase satellite usability for both real-time and post-processing applications. Using 1 year of observations from the Multi-GNSS Experiment network (MGEX), we estimate the precise maneuver periods for all Beidou satellites and the thrust forces. On average, GEO and IGSO satellites in the Beidou constellation are maneuvered 12 and 2 times, respectively, each year. For GEO satellites, the maneuvers are mainly in-plane, while out-of-plane maneuvers are observed for IGSO satellites and a small number of GEO satellites. In most cases, the Beidou satellite maneuver periods last 15–25 min, but can be as much as 2 h for the few out-of-plane maneuvers of GEO satellites. The thrust forces acting on Beidou satellites are normally in the order of 0.1–0.7 mm/s². This can cause changes in velocity of GEO/IGSO satellites in the order of several decimeters per second. In the extreme cases of GEO out-of-plane maneuvers, very large cross-track velocity changes are observed, namely 28 m/s, induced by 5.4 mm/s² thrust forces. Also, we demonstrate that by applying the estimated thrust forces in orbit integration, the orbit errors can be estimated at decimeter level in along- and cross-track directions during normal maneuver periods, and 1–2 m in all the orbital directions for the enormous GEO out-of-plane maneuver.  相似文献   

Analysis of estimated satellite clock biases and their effects on precise point positioning     

Shirong Ye  Lewen Zhao  Jia Song  Dezhong Chen  Weiping Jiang 《GPS Solutions》2018,22(1):16

This study provides a systemic analysis to identify the biases in estimated satellite clocks and illustrates their effects in precise point positioning (PPP). First, the precise satellite clock estimation method considering pseudorange and carrier phase hardware delays is derived. Two methods for satellite clock estimation are compared, and their equivalency is discussed. The results show that apart from the well-known constant code hardware biases, the time-variant phase hardware biases are also absorbed by the estimated clocks. Also, the satellite clocks contain biases caused by modeling errors. To analyze the effects of these biases, they are grouped into initial clock biases (ICBs) and time-dependent biases (TDBs). Then, a detailed analysis of the impact of the biases on PPP-based troposphere and coordinate estimates is conducted. The experimental analysis demonstrates that TDBs affect positioning and tropospheric estimates, and their impacts are more significant in the static mode. The ICBs affect coordinate accuracy, zenith total delay mean bias, and its standard deviations only at the millimeter level for kinematic and static PPP, which is negligible. However, the ICBs affect the convergence period for both static and real kinematic PPP, and the magnitude of their impact largely depends on data quality. Note that satellites clocks are generally estimated with the P1/P2 and L1/L2 ionospheric-free combinations, and that hardware-specific parts of ICBs and TDBs cancel if users employ the same type of observables as the clock providers. Otherwise, the effects of biases cannot be ignored, especially for triple-frequency applications. Also, modeling-specific parts of ICBs and TDBs are significant in real-time clocks, which also affect user applications. Our conclusion is applicable for understanding the effects of these biases.  相似文献   

Object- and pixel-based classifications of macroalgae farming area with high spatial resolution imagery     

Yuhan Zheng  Anqi Wang  Jiang Chen 《国际地球制图》2018,33(10):1048-1063

Macroalgae plays an important role in coastal ecosystems. The accurate delineation of macroalgae areas is important for environmental management. This study compared the pixel- and object-based methods using Gaofen satellite no. 2 image to explore an efficient classification approach. Expert system rules and nearest neighbour classifier were adopted for object-based classification, whereas maximum likelihood classifier was implemented in the pixel-based approach. Normalized difference vegetation index, normalized difference water index, mean value of the blue band and geometric characteristics were selected as features to distinguish macroalgae farms by considering the spectral and spatial characteristics. Results show that the object-based method achieved a higher overall accuracy and kappa coefficient than the pixel-based method. Moreover, the object-based approach displayed superiority in identifying Porphyra class. These findings suggest that the object-based method can delineate macroalgae farming areas efficiently and be applied in the future to monitor the macroalgae farms with high spatial resolution imagery.  相似文献   

玄武岩柱状节理六边形结构形成机制探讨     

周思耘  吴晨 《地质论评》2021,67(6):1629-1635

玄武岩柱状节理往往呈现完美的六边形石柱,这种现象引起了人们的广泛关注和好奇,但是对于其形成机理尚无合理的解释。本文通过对冷却过程中的玄武岩进行受力分析,提出当岩石（浆）冷凝收缩的凝聚力达到其抗张强度时,岩石（浆）内部发生潜在破裂和微形变;当潜在破裂面形成后,因岩石的泊松效应,微小潜在破裂面处的应力状态发生重整,形成新的潜在破裂面;当新的潜在破裂面处的剪应力等于岩石抗张强度时,岩石（浆）发生剪切破裂,形成如今所见的柱状节理。根据前人相关岩石实验数据,推算得到玄武岩相应温度下的内摩擦角、黏聚力、抗张强度和泊松比,采用应力莫尔圆方法进行数值计算,获得玄武岩在冷却到800 ℃左右时发生破裂,六棱柱形柱状节理开始形成,内角约119.1°。进一步分析认为,岩石的黏聚力、石英含量等因素可能控制着柱状节理的发育和形状。  相似文献