The effect of climatic variations on agricultural risk     

M. L. Parry  T. R. Carter 《Climatic change》1985,7(1):95-110

The thesis of this paper is that impacts from climatic change can be evaluated effectively as changes in the frequency of short-term, anomalous climatic events. These can then be expressed as changes in the level of risk of impact from climatic extremes. To evaluate this approach, the risk of crop failure resulting from low levels of accumulated temperature is assessed for oats farming in southern Scotland. Annual accumulated temperatures are calculated for the 323-year-long temperature record compiled by Manley for Central England. These are bridged across to southern Scotland and, by calculating mean levels of risk for different elevations, an average risk surface is constructed. One-in-10 and 1-in-50 frequencies of crop failure are assumed to delineate a high-risk zone, which is mapped for the 323-year period by constructing isopleths of these risk levels. By redrawing the risk isopleths for warm and cool 50-year periods, the geographical shift of the high-risk zone is delineated. The conclusion is that relatively recent and apparently minor climatic variations in the United Kingdom have in fact induced substantial spatial changes in levels of agricultural risk. An advantage of expressing climatic change as a change in agricultural risk is that support programs for agriculture can be retuned to accommodate acceptable frequencies of impact by adjusting support levels to match new risk levels.  相似文献   

The logarithmic profile in wind erosion: An algebraic solution     

W. D. Scott  D. J. Carter 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1986,34(3):303-310

This paper presents a simple algebraic approach to the interpretation of wind erosion data that allows for density variation close to the surface due to the presence of large amounts of saltating material. The effect explains nonlinearities in the logarithmic velocity profile near the surface and extends the profile into the saltating layer.  相似文献   

Some problems associated with the analysis and interpretation of mixed carbonate and quartz beach sands,illustrated by examples from North-West Ireland     

R.W.G. Carter 《Sedimentary Geology》1982,33(1):35-56

Mixes of carbonate and quartz sands, which are commonly encountered in Recent coastal sediments, require careful analysis if they are to be correctly interpreted. Grain-size data fall into multimodal or segmented zig-zag distributions which may require some kind of component separation if they are to be summarised by conventional statistics, and before they can be assigned to a particular hydrodynamic depositional process or environment. Unfortunately, separation techniques are only spasmodically applied, usually without due regard to the consequences. Such artificially filtered or truncated distributions are of little subsequent use. Using a range of samples from two beaches in NW Ireland, where carbonate proportions range from nearly zero to over sixty percent, the interrelationships of the two dominant components were examined. Where only a small carbonate proportion is incorporated into a large quartz one, predictable modifications of the size-curve are apparent. However, the components are more independent if mixtures are near equal. The occurrence of a number of distinctive combinations of simple straight lines and complex zig-zag curves probably reflects the relatively dynamic nature of the carbonate fraction.  相似文献   

Distribution of heavy metals in sediments of the Patraikos gulf (Greece)     

Fanny Voutsinou-Taliadouri  John Satsmadjis 《Marine pollution bulletin》1983,14(1):33-35

  相似文献   

The quality of urban environment — essays on “new resources” in an urban age: Perloff,H.S., ed. (1971): 332 pp., tables,figures. published for resources for the future,Inc. Baltimore/London: the Johns Hopkins press. £ 6.50     

H. Carter 《Geoforum》1973,4(1):89-90

  相似文献   

Wide-Field Camera for Gravitational Microlensing Survey: MOA-cam2     

Toshifumi Yanagisawa  Yasushi Muraki  Yutaka Matsubara  Fumio Abe  Kimiaki Masuda  Sachiyo Noda  Takahiro Sumi  Yuji Kato  Mitsuaki Fujimoto  Shuji Sato  Ian Bond  Nicholas Rattenbury  Philip Yock  Pam Kilmartin  John Hearnshaw  Micheal Reid  Denis Sullivan  Brian Carter  Richard Dodd  Garry Nankivell  Noiman Rumsey  Morihiro Honda  Maki Sekiguchi  Masanori Yoshizawa  Takashi Nakamura  Humitaka Sato  Seiji Kabe  Makoto Kobayashi  Yoshiyuki Watase  Jun Jugaku  Toshiharu Saito  Barbel Koribalsky 《Experimental Astronomy》2000,10(4):519-535

We have constructed a large, mosaic CCD camera called MOA-cam2 which has 4096 × 6144-pixelsto search for gravitational microlensing events. MOA-cam2 has three4096 × 2048-pixel SITe CCD chips, which have a very high quantum efficiency (nearly 80% in the wave region 500 to 800 nm),and three buttable sides. We have placed the threechips side by side with 100 m dead space. MOA-cam2 has been installed on the 61 cm Boller and Chivens telescope of the MOA collaboration at the Mt. John University Observatory (MJUO) in NewZealand since July 1998. The field coverage is 0.92° × 1.38° per exposure. The technical details of MOA-cam2 and the first images obtained with the Boller and Chivens telescope are presented. MOA-cam2 introduces a second phase of research on gravitational microlensing by the MOA collaboration.  相似文献   

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models     

J. E. Olesen  T. R. Carter  C. H. Díaz-Ambrona  S. Fronzek  T. Heidmann  T. Hickler  T. Holt  M. I. Minguez  P. Morales  J. P. Palutikof  M. Quemada  M. Ruiz-Ramos  G. H. Rubæk  F. Sau  B. Smith  M. T. Sykes 《Climatic change》2007,81(1):123-143

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.  相似文献   

Raman microspectroscopy: A non-destructive tool for routine calibration of apatite crystallographic structure for fission-track analyses     

Massimiliano Zattin  Danilo Bersani  Andrew Carter 《Chemical Geology》2007,240(3-4):197-204

Compositional control on the annealing kinetics of fission-tracks (FT) in apatite requires routine measurement of sample grain composition. However, for practical reasons the bulk composition of analysed grains is not routinely measured and instead grain chlorine content or etch-pit dimensions are used to characterise a samples annealing behaviour. A more desirable approach is to measure crystallographic parameters (i.e. unit cell dimension) of a grain as these represent the summed effect of all substitutions and crystal defects. We show how Raman microspectrometry can be used as a routine non-destructive tool to obtain rapid measurement of the crystallographic structure of apatite grains etched for FT analysis. Variations of unit cell parameter a are found to correspond to a systematic variation of Raman shift in the range of 452–440 cm^− 1 for measurements made on c-parallel sections of apatite where the direction of the polarized incident beam is parallel to the c axis.  相似文献   

Pits,rifts and slumps: the summit structure of Piton de la Fournaise     

Adam Carter  Benjamin van Wyk de Vries  Karim Kelfoun  Patrick Bachèlery  Pierre Briole 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,69(7):741-756

A clear model of structures and associated stress fields of a volcano can provide a framework in which to study and monitor activity. We propose a volcano-tectonic model for the dynamics of the summit of Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion Island, Indian Ocean). The summit contains two main pit crater structures (Dolomieu and Bory), two active rift zones, and a slumping eastern sector, all of which contribute to the actual fracture system. Dolomieu has developed over 100 years by sudden large collapse events and subsequent smaller drops that include terrace formation. Small intra-pit collapse scars and eruptive fissures are located along the southern floor of Dolomieu. The western pit wall of Dolomieu has a superficial inward dipping normal fault boundary connected to a deeper ring fault system. Outside Dolomieu, an oval extension zone containing sub-parallel pit-related fractures extends to a maximum distance of 225 m from the pit. At the summit the main trend for eruptive fissures is N80°, normal to the north–south rift zone. The terraced structure of Dolomieu has been reproduced by analogue models with a roof to width ratio of approximately 1, suggesting an original magma chamber depth of about 1 km. Such a chamber may continue to act as a storage location today. The east flank has a convex–concave profile and is bounded by strike-slip fractures that define a gravity slump. This zone is bound to the north by strike-slip fractures that may delineate a shear zone. The southern reciprocal shear zone is probably marked by an alignment of large scoria cones and is hidden by recent aa lavas. The slump head intersects Dolomieu pit and may slide on a hydrothermally altered layer known to be located at a depth of around 300 m. Our model has the summit activity controlled by the pit crater collapse structure, not the rifts. The rifts become important on the mid-flanks of the cone, away from pit-related fractures. On the east flank the superficial structures are controlled by the slump. We suggest that during pit subsidence intra-pit eruptions may occur. During tumescence, however, the pit system may become blocked and a flank eruption is more likely. Intrusions along the rift may cause deformation that subsequently increases the slump’s potential to deform. Conversely, slumping may influence the east flank stress distribution and locally control intrusion direction. These predictions can be tested with monitoring data to validate the model and, eventually, improve monitoring.  相似文献   

Evaluation of α- and β-pinene degradation in the detailed tropospheric chemistry mechanism,MCM v3.1, using environmental chamber data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. G. Pinho  C. A. Pio  W. P. L. Carter  M. E. Jenkin 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,57(2):171-202

  相似文献