新疆21世纪气候变化的高分辨率模拟   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

吴佳  高学杰  石英  Filippo Giorgi 《冰川冻土》2011,33(3):479-487

使用一个25 km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3),嵌套MIROC3.2_hires全球气候模式结果,进行了IPCC SRES A1B情景下,东亚区域21世纪气候变化的模拟,针对新疆地区进行了分析.首先对模式模拟的当代（1981-2000年）气候进行检验,结果表明:模式对年平均气温、降水的空间分布和数值均具有较...  相似文献   

The Maoxian landslide as seen from space: detecting precursors of failure with Sentinel-1 data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Raspini  Alfio Fumagalli  Ping Lu  Sara Del Conte  Paolo Farina  Jacopo Allievi  Alessandro Ferretti  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2018,15(1):123-133

Post-event Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis on a stack of 45 C-band SAR images acquired by the ESA Sentinel-1 satellites from 9 October 2014 to 19 June 2017 allowed the identification of a clear precursory deformation signal for the Maoxian landslide (Mao County, Sichuan Province, China). The landslide occurred in the early morning of 24 June 2017 and killed more than 100 people in the village of Xinmo. Sentinel-1 images have been processed through an advanced multi-interferogram analysis capable of maximising the density of measurement points, generating ground deformation maps and displacement time series for an area of 460 km² straddling the Minjiang River and the Songping Gully. InSAR data clearly show the precursors of the slope failure in the source area of the Maoxian landslide, with a maximum displacement rate detected of 27 mm/year along the line of sight of the satellite. Deformation time series of measurement points identified within the main scarp of the landslide exhibit an acceleration starting from April 2017. A detailed time series analysis leads to the classification of different deformation behaviours. The Fukuzono method for forecasting the time of failure appear to be applicable to the displacement data exhibiting progressive acceleration. Results suggest that satellite radar data, systematically acquired over large areas with short revisiting time, could be used not only as a tool for mapping unstable areas, but also for landslide monitoring, at least for some typologies of sliding phenomena.  相似文献   

Displacement prediction of step-like landslide by applying a novel kernel extreme learning machine method     

Chao Zhou  Kunlong Yin  Ying Cao  Emanuele Intrieri  Bayes Ahmed  Filippo Catani 《Landslides》2018,15(11):2211-2225

Landslide displacement prediction is an essential component for developing landslide early warning systems. In the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA), landslides experience step-like deformations (i.e., periods of stability interrupted by abrupt accelerations) generally from April to September due to the influence of precipitation and reservoir scheduled level variations. With respect to many traditional machine learning techniques, two issues exist relative to displacement prediction, namely the random fluctuation of prediction results and inaccurate prediction when step-like deformations take place. In this study, a novel and original prediction method was proposed by combining the wavelet transform (WT) and particle swarm optimization-kernel extreme learning machine (PSO-KELM) methods, and by considering the landslide causal factors. A typical landslide with a step-like behavior, the Baishuihe landslide in TGRA, was taken as a case study. The cumulated total displacement was decomposed into trend displacement, periodic displacement (controlled by internal geological conditions and external triggering factors respectively), and noise. The displacement items were predicted separately by multi-factor PSO-KELM considering various causal factors, and the total displacement was obtained by summing them up. An accurate prediction was achieved by the proposed method, including the step-like deformation period. The performance of the proposed method was compared with that of the multi-factor extreme learning machine (ELM), support vector regression (SVR), backward propagation neural network (BPNN), and single-factor PSO-KELM. Results show that the PSO-KELM outperforms the other models, and the prediction accuracy can be improved by considering causal factors.  相似文献   

Reply to discussion on “Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses” by F. Bozzano,P. Mazzanti,and S. Moretto     

Tommaso Carlà  Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Di Traglia  Teresa Nolesini  Giovanni Gigli  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2018,15(7):1443-1444

■■■The paper “Discussion to: Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli” by Bozzano et al. brings forward new considerations on an issue of extreme concern in landslide risk management. To this day, the ability to predict catastrophic landslide failures from slope surface displacements is a problem dictated more by practical constraints rather than by theoretical uncertainties. In this sense, the development of data interpretation practices is crucial. This short reply provides a few further insights with regard to this subject, also in the context of the recently published literature.  相似文献   

Improving basin scale shallow landslide modelling using reliable soil thickness maps   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Samuele Segoni  Guglielmo Rossi  Filippo Catani 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(1):85-101

Soil thickness is a well-known factor controlling shallow landsliding. Notwithstanding, its spatial organisation over large areas is poorly understood, and in basin scale slope analyses it is often established using simple methods. In this paper, we apply five different soil thickness models in two test sites, and we use the obtained soil thickness maps to feed a slope stability model. Validation quantifies how errors in soil thickness influence the resulting factor of safety and points out which method grants the best results. In particular, in our cases, slope-derived soil thickness patterns produced the worst slope stability assessment, while the use of reliable soil thickness maps obtained by means of a more complex geomorphologically indexed model improved shallow landslides modelling.  相似文献   

Integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought impact monitoring: some hints from an Italian case study     

Raffaele Giordano  Elisabetta Preziosi  Emanuele Romano 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):523-544

According to the Hyogo Framework for Action, increasing resilience to drought requires the development of a people-centered monitoring and early warning system, or in other words, a system capable of providing useful and understandable information to the community at risk. To achieve this objective, it is crucial to negotiate a credible and legitimate knowledge system, which should include both expert and local knowledge. Although several benefits can be obtained, the integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought monitoring is still far from being the standard in drought monitoring and early warning. This is due to many reasons, that is, the reciprocal skepticism of local communities and decision makers, and the limits in the capacity to understand and assess the complex web of drought impacts. This work describes a methodology based on the sequential implementation of Cognitive Mapping and Bayesian Belief Networks to collect, structure and analyze stakeholders’ perceptions of drought impacts. The methodology was applied to analyze drought impacts at Lake Trasimeno (central Italy). A set of drought indicators was developed based on stakeholders’ perceptions. A validation phase was carried out comparing the perceived indicators of drought and the physical indicators (i.e., Standard Precipitation Index and the level of the lake). Some preliminary conclusions were drawn concerning the reliability of local knowledge to support drought monitoring and early warning.  相似文献   

Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Xuejie Gao  Filippo Giorgi 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,62(3-4):195-209

We use three measures of aridity, the Köppen climate classification, the UNEP aridity index and the Budyko dryness index, to estimate the possible effects of late 21st century climate change on the Mediterranean region under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios) as simulated with a high resolution (20 km grid interval) regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM). A basic validation of the reference simulation along with a brief discussion of the surface climate changes for the A2 and B2 scenarios is also provided. Analysis of the changes in all three aridity measures indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region might experience a substantial increase in the northward extension of dry and arid lands, particularly in the central and southern portions of the Iberian, Italian, Hellenic and Turkish peninsulas and in areas of southeastern Europe (e.g. Romania and Bulgaria), the Middle East, northern Africa and major Islands (Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily). Most Ice-Cap areas of the Alps are also projected to disappear. These effects are due to a large warming and pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially during the spring and summer seasons. In addition, fine scale topography and coastline features affect the aridity change signal. We identify the southern Mediterranean as a region particularly vulnerable to water stress and desertification processes under climate change conditions.  相似文献   

Integrated geophysical methods for the characterisation of an archaeological site (Massenzio Basilica — Roman forum, Rome, Italy)     

Ettore Cardarelli  Gerardina Di Filippo   《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2009,68(4):508-521

A geophysical study that involved different techniques was carried out with the aim to improve the knowledge of the archaeological site where the Basilica of Maxentius was founded and to discern individual covered structures (foundations).Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES), seismic refraction and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) studies were performed in the archaeological site. VES and seismic refraction allowed to characterise the main geological formations of the hill where the Basilica was built and to distinguish the concrete floor and backfilling. Electrical data were processed using different algorithms; their results were compared to appraise the inverted models' robustness.ERT inversion algorithms were used to delineate shape and size of a much more complex structure, that were originally expected from archaeological excavation plan. The results of the commercial program were used as a posteriori information to include them in the algorithm proposed by the authors; the sequential use of the programs defined a processing procedure.The integrated use of different geophysical techniques reduced a great deal the intrinsic ambiguities of each method. Direct explorations (boreholes and archaeological excavations) confirmed the geophysical results.  相似文献   

The Ventotene Volcanic Ridge: a newly explored complex in the central Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy)     

Marco Cuffaro  Eleonora Martorelli  Alessandro Bosman  Alessia Conti  Sabina Bigi  Filippo Muccini  Luca Cocchi  Marco Ligi  Giovanni Bortoluzzi  Davide Scrocca  Simonepietro Canese  Francesco L. Chiocci  Aida M. Conte  Carlo Doglioni  Cristina Perinelli 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(12):86

  相似文献   

Data reconstruction and homogenization for reducing uncertainties in high-resolution climate analysis in Alpine regions     

Emanuele Eccel  Piero Cau  Roberto Ranzi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(3):345-358

Analysis of climatic series needs pre-processing to attain spatial- and time-consistent homogeneity. The latter, in high-resolution investigations, can rely on the strong correlations among series, which in turn requires a strict fulfilment of the quality standard in terms of completeness. Fifty-nine daily precipitation and temperature series of 50?years from Trentino, northern Italy, were pre-processed for climatic analysis. This study describes: (1) the preliminary gap-filling protocol for daily series, based on geostatistical correlations on both horizontal and vertical domains; (2) an algorithm to reduce inhomogeneity owing to the systematic snowfall underestimation of rain gauges; and (3) the processing protocol to take into account any source of undocumented inhomogeneity in series. This was performed by application of the t test and F-test of R code RHtestV2. This pre-processing shows straightforward results; correction of snowfall measurements re-evaluates attribution of patterns of altitudinal trends in time trends; homogenization increases the strength of the climatic signal and reduces the scattering of time trends, assessed over a few decades, of a factor of 2.  相似文献