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11.
Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Bert Wouters Wilco Hazeleger 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(7-8):1263-1280
Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Regional variations in skill with and without trend are compared with similarly analysed uninitialised experiments to separate the trend due to monotonically increasing forcings from fluctuations around the trend due to the ocean initial state and aerosol forcings. In temperature most of the skill in both multi-model ensembles comes from the externally forced trends. The rise of the global mean temperature is represented well in the initialised hindcasts, but variations around the trend show little skill beyond the first year due to the absence of volcanic aerosols in the hindcasts and the unpredictability of ENSO. The models have non-trivial skill in hindcasts of North Atlantic sea surface temperature beyond the trend. This skill is highest in the northern North Atlantic in initialised experiments and in the subtropical North Atlantic in uninitialised simulations. A similar result is found in the Pacific Ocean, although the signal is less clear. The uninitialised simulations have good skill beyond the trend in the western North Pacific. The initialised experiments show some skill in the decadal ENSO region in the eastern Pacific, in agreement with previous studies. However, the results in this study are not statistically significant (p?≈?0.1) by themselves. The initialised models also show some skill in forecasting 4-year mean Sahel rainfall at lead times of 1 and 5?years, in agreement with the observed teleconnection from the Atlantic Ocean. Again, the skill is not statistically significant (p?≈?0.2). Furthermore, uninitialised simulations that include volcanic aerosols have similar skill. It is therefore still an open question whether initialisation improves predictions of Sahel rainfall. We conclude that the main source of skill in forecasting temperature is the trend forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean initial state contributes to skill in some regions, but variations in boundary forcings such as aerosols are as important in decadal forecasting. 相似文献
12.
The Scaling Behaviour of a Turbulent Kinetic Energy Closure Model for Stably Stratified Conditions 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
We investigate the scaling behaviour of a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure model for stably stratified conditions. The mixing length scale for stable stratification is proportional to the ratio of the square root of the TKE and the local Brunt–Väisälä frequency, which is a commonly applied formulation. We analyze the scaling behaviour of our model in terms of traditional Monin–Obukov Similarity Theory and local scaling. From the model equations, we derive expressions for the stable limit behaviour of the flux–gradient relations and other scaling quantities. It turns out that the scaling behaviour depends on only a few model parameters and that the results obey local scaling theory. The analytical findings are illustrated with model simulations for the second GABLS intercomparison study. We also investigate solutions for the case in which an empirical correction function is used to express the eddy diffusivity for momentum as a function of the Richardson number (i.e. an increasing turbulent Prandtl number with stability). In this case, it seems that for certain parameter combinations the model cannot generate a steady-state solution. At the same time, its scaling behaviour becomes unrealistic. This shows that the inclusion of empirical correction functions may have large and undesired consequences for the model behaviour. 相似文献
13.
The Boom clay is considered as a candidate host rock for the Belgian disposal of radioactive waste. Thanks to the recent sinking
of a new shaft to extend the Underground Research Laboratory (URL) at the Mol site, new in-situ data have been obtained. They
consist in the observation of significant fracturing, evidenced during the excavation of the shaft annexes, and in correlated
hydraulic perturbations in the far field (maximum of 0.2 MPa at 60-m radius). These observations cannot be explained from
simple poroplastic models that predict a maximum perturbation extent of 25 m under full deconfinement. Thus, models with increasing
complexity are built to explain this discrepancy. It is proposed that the low-support pressure imposed by the primary lining,
combined with the long time over which this support condition held, has favoured the decompression of the clay massif through
time-dependent effects, mainly skeleton viscosity. This resulted in near-field fracturing, leading to an apparent increase
of the excavated radius and to a hydraulic perturbation in the far field. This interpretation still needs to be validated/invalidated
with future research. The effect on the overall performance of the repository is expected to remain small due to the self-healing
nature of the fractures.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
14.
The moment method is a well known technique, which uses a time series ofthe first 3 moments of a spectral line, to estimate the (discrete) modeparameters and m. The method, contrary to Doppler imaging,also yields other interesting(real-valued) parameters such as the inclination angle i, or v sin i,during its identification procedure.In this paper, we are not only interested in the estimation of thesereal-valued parameters themselves but also inreliable estimates for their uncertainty.We designed a statistical formalism for the moment method based on theso-called generalized estimating equations (GEE). This formalismaims to estimate the uncertainty of the real-valued parameters taking intoaccount that the different moments of a line profile are correlated and –more importantly – that the uncertainty of the observed moments depends onthe pulsation parameters. The latter property of the moment method makesthe least-squares technique a poor choice to estimate the uncertainty ofthe real-valued parameters. We implemented the GEE method and presentan application to a high-resolution spectroscopic dataset of the slowly pulsating B star HD181558. 相似文献
15.
Aad van Ulden Geert Lenderink Bart van den Hurk Erik van Meijgaard 《Climatic change》2007,81(1):179-192
PRUDENCE simulations of the climate in Central Europe are analysed with respect to mean temperature, mean precipitation and three monthly mean geostrophic circulation indices. The three global models show important circulation biases in the control climate, in particular in the strength of the west-circulations in winter and summer. The nine regional models inherit much of the circulation biases from their host model, especially in winter. In summer, the regional models show a larger spread in circulation statistics, depending on nesting procedures and other model characteristics. Simulated circulation biases appear to have a significant inluence on simulated temperature and precipitation. The PRUDENCE ensemble appears to be biased towards warmer and wetter than observed circulations in winter, and towards warmer and dryer circulations in summer. A2-scenario simulations show important circulation changes, which have a significant impact on changes in the distributions of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. It is likely that interactions between land–surface processes and atmospheric circulation play an important role in the simulated changes in the summer climate in Central Europe. 相似文献
16.
Wannes Hubau Jan Van den Bulcke Peter Kitin Florias Mees Geert Baert Dirk Verschuren Laurent Nsenga Joris Van Acker Hans Beeckman 《Quaternary Research》2013
Charcoal was sampled in four soil profiles at the Mayumbe forest boundary (DRC). Five fire events were recorded and 44 charcoal types were identified. One stratified profile yielded charcoal assemblages around 530 cal yr BP and > 43.5 cal ka BP in age. The oldest assemblage precedes the period of recorded anthropogenic burning, illustrating occasional long-term absence of fire but also natural wildfire occurrences within tropical rainforest. No other charcoal assemblages older than 2500 cal yr BP were recorded, perhaps due to bioturbation and colluvial reworking. The recorded paleofires were possibly associated with short-lived climate anomalies. Progressively dry climatic conditions since ca. 4000 cal yr BP onward did not promote paleofire occurrence until increasing seasonality affected vegetation at the end of the third millennium BP, as illustrated by a fire occurring in mature rainforest that persisted until around 2050 cal yr BP. During a drought episode coinciding with the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’, mature rainforest was locally replaced by woodland savanna. Charcoal remains from pioneer forest indicate that fire hampered forest regeneration after climatic drought episodes. The presence of pottery shards and oil-palm endocarps associated with two relatively recent paleofires suggests that the effects of climate variability were amplified by human activities. 相似文献
17.
AbstractSoil erosion is a global environmental problem. To quantify water erosion rates at the field, hillslope or catchment scale, several spatially-distributed soil erosion models have been developed. The accuracy of those models depends largely on the sediment detachment and transport functions used, many of which were developed from empirical research. In this paper, the physical basis of the available sediment detachment and transport functions is reviewed, and their application boundaries determined. Well-known and widely-used sediment detachment and transport functions are discussed on the basis of composite force predictors, i.e. shear stress, stream power, unit stream power and effective stream power, and their suitability is elucidated based on information in the literature. It was found that only a few sediment detachment functions are available, and those have been poorly tested. Most erosion models ignore direct calculation of sediment detachment, but use the sediment transport capacity deficit approach to estimate detachment rate. Many more sediment transport functions are available that also tested better for overland flow conditions. However, our tests did not result in a single function that appeared to perform best under a range of experimental conditions. The unit stream power-based functions developed by Govers seem to be the most promising ones for water erosion modelling. It is therefore recommended to evaluate the performance of existing sediment transport functions with more detailed field and laboratory datasets.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
18.
Paul H.J. Hendriks Ezra Dessers Geert van Hootegem 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1479-1494
The great interest in spatial data infrastructures (SDIs) has led to a wealth of SDI definitions in SDI debates. The article aims to contribute to both theory-oriented and practice-oriented SDI research by providing a critical re-examination of the SDI literature. Ashby's formal theory of regulation, which sees infrastructures as regulatory devices, is used to identify the strengths and weaknesses of several SDI definitions. This exercise shows how debates of the SDI objectives and the roles of users get caught in mantraps and also opens the door for a way out of this confusion by distinguishing between functional and adoption objectives. It also highlights the emphasis on technological components in the SDI definitions, which sidestep the importance of structural and human resource components in SDI. 相似文献
19.
Lidia Pittarello Kitty Baert Vinciane Debaille Philippe Claeys 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2015,50(10):1718-1732
Classification of ordinary chondrite meteorites generally implies (1) determining the chemical group by the composition in endmembers of olivine and pyroxene, and (2) identifying the petrologic group by microstructural features. The composition of olivine and pyroxene is commonly obtained by microprobe analyses or oil immersion of mineral separates. We propose Raman spectroscopy as an alternative technique to determine the endmember content of olivine and pyroxene in ordinary chondrites, by using the link between the wavelength shift of selected characteristic peaks in the spectra of olivine and pyroxene and the Mg/Fe ratio in these phases. The existing correlation curve has been recalculated from the Raman spectrum of reference minerals of known composition and further refined for the range of chondritic compositions. Although the technique is not as accurate as the microprobe for determining the composition of olivine and pyroxene, for most of the samples the chemical group can be easily determined by Raman spectroscopy. Blind tests with ordinary chondrites of different provenance, weathering, and shock stages have confirmed the potential of the method. Therefore, we suggest that a preliminary screening and the classification of most of the equilibrated ordinary chondrites can be carried out using an optical microscope equipped with a Raman spectrometer. 相似文献
20.