Assessing spatial likelihood of flooding hazard using naïve Bayes and GIS: a case study in Bowen Basin,Australia     

Rui Liu  Yun Chen  Jianping Wu  Lei Gao  Damian Barrett  Tingbao Xu  Linyi Li  Chang Huang  Jia Yu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(6):1575-1590

Flooding hazard evaluation is the basis of flooding risk assessment which has significances to natural environment, human life and social economy. This study develops a spatial framework integrating naïve Bayes (NB) and geographic information system (GIS) to assess flooding hazard at regional scale. The methodology was demonstrated in the Bowen Basin in Australia as a case study. The inputs into the framework are five indices: elevation, slope, soil water retention, drainage proximity and density. They were derived from spatial data processed in ArcGIS. NB as a simplified and efficient type of Bayesian methods was used, with the assistance of remotely sensed flood inundation extent in the sampling process, to infer flooding probability on a cell-by-cell basis over the study area. A likelihood-based flooding hazard map was output from the GIS-based framework. The results reveal elevation and slope have more significant impacts on evaluation than other input indices. Area of high likelihood of flooding hazard is mainly located in the west and the southwest where there is a high water channel density, and along the water channels in the east of the study area. High likelihood of flooding hazard covers 45 % of the total area, medium likelihood accounts for about 12 %, low and very low likelihood represents 19 and 24 %, respectively. The results provide baseline information to identify and assess flooding hazard when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in the study offer an integrated approach in evaluation of flooding hazard with spatial distributions and indicative uncertainties. It can also be applied to other hazard assessments.  相似文献   

Opportunities for satellite remote sensing in hydrology and water management     

E.C. Barrett  R.W. Herschy 《国际地球制图》2013,28(2):11-18

Abstract

Hydrology and Water Management are key areas of applied science in the current world economy. Increasingly hydrologiste are looking to satellite remote sensing to help meet their needs for near real‐time data to measure, monitor and model water in the environment. However, progress has been hindered by the lack of a dedicated series of hydro‐logical satellites.

The paper summarises studies undertaken on an international basis in order to influence satellite, sensor and ground segment design operations to suit the needs of water management.  相似文献   

Understanding the fate of iron in a modern temperate estuary: Leirárvogur,Iceland     

Gemma M. Byrne  Richard H. Worden  David M. Hodgson  David A. Polya  Paul R. Lythgoe  Craig D. Barrie  Adrian J. Boyce 《Applied Geochemistry》2011

Fluvial dissolved Fe concentrations decrease upon mixing with seawater, resulting in the formation of Fe-floccules. However, a clear understanding of the fate of these floccules has yet to be established. Assessing how tidal processes affect the formation of Fe-colloids in the Leirárvogur estuary, SW Iceland, is an important step in understanding the formation and potential deposition of estuarine Fe-rich minerals within this estuarine system. The Leirárvogur estuary drains predominately Fe-rich basalt, increasing the likelihood of detecting changes in Fe-phases. Fluvial waters and local lake waters that drain into the estuary were compared and the effects of seasonal changes were considered, in an attempt to understand how varying end-members and external factors play a role in Fe-rich mineral formation. Aqueous and colloidal Fe concentrations were found to be greater towards the head of the Leirárvogur estuary, suggesting that potential Fe-rich minerals and complexes are forming at sites of fluvial input. Increasing suspended colloidal Fe towards the estuary mouth suggests that Fe-colloids are readily transported seaward.  相似文献   

Growth and grazing rate dynamics of major phytoplankton groups in an oligotrophic coastal site   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrés Gutiérrez-Rodríguez  Mikel Latasa  Renate Scharek  Ramon Massana  Gemma Vila  Josep M. Gasol 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

There has been more attention to phytoplankton dynamics in nutrient-rich waters than in oligotrophic ones thus requiring the need to study the dynamics and responses in oligotrophic waters. Accordingly, phytoplankton community in Blanes Bay was overall dominated by Prymnesiophyceae, remarkably constant throughout the year (31 ± 13% Total chlorophyll a, Tchl a) and Bacillariophyta with a more episodic appearance (20 ± 23% Tchl a). Prasinophyceae and Synechococcus contribution became substantial in winter (Prasinophyceae = 30% Tchl a) and summer (Synechococcus = 35% Tchl a). Phytoplankton growth and grazing mortality rates for major groups were estimated by dilution experiments in combination with high pressure liquid chromatography and flow cytometry carried out monthly over two years. Growth rates of total phytoplankton (range = 0.30–1.91 d⁻¹) were significantly higher in spring and summer (μ > 1.3 d⁻¹) than in autumn and winter (μ ∼ 0.65 d⁻¹) and showed a weak dependence on temperature but a significant positive correlation with day length. Microzooplankton grazing (range = 0.03–1.4 d⁻¹) was closely coupled to phytoplankton growth. Grazing represented the main process for loss of phytoplankton, removing 60 ± 34% (±SD) of daily primary production and 70 ± 48% of Tchl a stock. Chla synthesis was highest during the Bacillarophyceae-dominated spring bloom (Chl a_synt = 2.3 ± 1.6 μg Chl a L⁻¹ d⁻¹) and lowest during the following post-bloom conditions dominated by Prymnesiophyceae (Chl a_synt = 0.23 ± 0.08 μg Chl a L⁻¹ d⁻¹). This variability was smoothed when expressed in carbon equivalents mainly due to the opposite dynamics of C:chl a (range = 11–135) and chl a concentration (range = 0.07–2.0 μg chl a L⁻¹). Bacillariophyta and Synechococcus contribution to C fluxes was higher than to biomass because of their fast-growth rate. The opposite was true for Prymnesiophyceae.  相似文献   

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook     

J. H. Barrett 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(3):151-165

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.  相似文献   

Small turbidite systems in a complex tectonic setting (SW Mediterranean Sea): morphology and growth patterns   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Beln Alonso  Gemma Ercilla 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2002,19(10)

Three small turbidite systems (Almeria, Sacratif, and Guadiaro), each tens of kilometres long, are developed in the complex morpho-structural setting of the northern Alboran Sea and have similar primary architectural elements (canyons, channel-levee systems, lobes). However, comparison reveals differences in the axial gradients of their canyons, depth/physiographic location, morphological framework, and lateral and longitudinal sedimentary shifts of turbidite deposition. The depositional architecture and sedimentary evolution from late Pliocene to Quaternary seems to be conditioned by number of submarine feeding sources (canyons), sea-level fluctuations and local tectonic (e.g. margin/canyon-channel gradients, faults). We group the Alboran turbidite systems into two models: mud/sand-rich submarine point-source and mud/sand-rich multiple submarine source ramp.  相似文献   

Coronal Magnetic Connectivity and EUV Dimmings     

Yuzong Zhang  Jingxiu Wang  Gemma D. R. Attrill  Louise K. Harra  Zhiliang Yang  Xiangtao He 《Solar physics》2007,241(2):329-349

Coronal dimming can be considered to be a disk signature of front-side coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (Thompson et al.: 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 1431). The study of the magnetic connectivity associated with coronal dimming can shed new light on the magnetic nature of CMEs. In this study, four major flare-CME events on 14 July 2000, 28 October 2003, 7 November 2004, and 15 January 2005 are analyzed. They were all halo CMEs associated with major flare activity in complex active regions (ARs) and produced severe space weather consequences. To explore the magnetic connectivity of these CMEs, global potential-field extrapolations based on the composite synoptic magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory are constructed, and their association with coronal dimming is revealed by the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope. It is found that each flare-CME event involved interaction of more than ten sets of magnetic-loop systems. These loop systems occupied over 50% of all identified loop systems in the visible hemisphere and covered a wide range of solar longitudes and latitudes. We categorize the loop systems as active-region loops (ARLs), AR-interconnecting loops (ARILs) including transequatorial loops (TLs), and long arcades (LAs) straddling filament channels. A recurring pattern, the saddle-field configuration (SFC), consisting of ARILs, is found to be present in all four major flare-CME events. The magnetic connectivity revealed by this work implies that intercoupling and interaction of multiple flux-loop systems are required for a major CME. For comparison, a simple flare-CME event of 12 May 1997 with a relatively simple magnetic configuration is chosen. Even for this simple flare-CME event, we find that multiple flux-loop systems are also present.  相似文献   

Adapting visual methods: action research with Kampala street children   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Lorraine Young  & Hazel Barrett 《Area》2001,33(2):141-152

The paper examines the use of four visual 'action' methods for eliciting information from street children about their interactions with the socio-spatial environment. These methods were adapted and used to encourage child-led activities and minimize researcher input. The advantages and constraints associated with the successful implementation of visual methods with children are examined, followed by a brief examination of the 'real' and ethical considerations surrounding their use. The paper concludes that visual methods allow a high level of child-led participation in research, as well as providing a stimulus for eliciting further oral material.  相似文献   

Elemental concentrations and their distribution in two bituminous coals of different paleoenvironments     

L.A. Harris  H.E. Barrett  O.C. Kopp 《International Journal of Coal Geology》1981,1(3):175-193

The vertical distributions of major and minor elements in two high-volatile bituminous coals of Eastern Tennessee are compared. The coals studied are the Pewee, deposited in a fresh-water environment, and the Upper Grassy Spring, previously thought to be influenced by a late incursion of marine water.X-ray fluorescence analyses were performed on a continuous series of specimens obtained from full-face channel samples representing the entire thickness of each seam. Correlation coefficients (r) for all element pairs show high positive correlations for element pairs normally associated with clay minerals. Equally good correlations were observed for (Si, Ti) and (Al, Ti), suggesting that titanium is associated with clay minerals in both coals. Strontium and phosphorous showed a high positive r factor for both the Upper Grassy Spring and the Pewee.Major differences were found to exist in the concentrations and distributions of sulfur, iron, and arsenic in the Upper Grassy Spring and Pewee seams. The Upper Grassy Spring contains an order of magnitude more sulfur than the Pewee as well as several times as much iron and arsenic. The element concentrations and especially their distributions in the Upper Grassy Spring suggest an earlier time for the marine incursion than previously reported. In fact, there is evidence that this coal deposit may have been influenced by marine conditions from its inception.  相似文献   

Strontium and oxygen isotopic composition of some basalts from Hole 504B,Costa Rica Rift,DSDP Legs 69 and 70     

T.J. Barrett  H. Friedrichsen 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1982,60(1):27-38

Seventeen whole-rock samples, generally taken at 25–50 m intervals from 5 to 560 m sub-basement in Hole 504B, drilled in 6.2 m.y. old crust, were analysed for⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, Sr and Rb concentrations, and¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios. Sr isotope ratios for 8 samples from the upper 260 m of the hole range from 0.70287 to 0.70377, with a mean of 0.70320. In the 330–560 m interval, 5 samples have a restricted range of 0.70255–0.70279, with a mean of 0.70266, the average value for fresh mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB). In the 260–330 m interval, approximately intermediate Sr isotopic ratios are found.δ¹⁸O values (‰) range from 6.4 to 7.8 in the upper 260 m, 6.2–6.4 in the 270–320 m interval, and 5.8–6.2 in the 320–560 m interval. The values in the upper 260 m are typical for basalts which have undergone low-temperature seawater alteration, whereas the values for the 320–560 m interval correspond to MORB which have experienced essentially no oxygen isotopic alteration.The higher⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios in the upper part of the hole can be interpreted as the result of a greater overall water/rock ratio in the upper part of the Hole 504B crust than in the lower part. Interaction of basalt with seawater(⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.7091) increased basalt⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and produced smectitic alteration products which raised whole-rock δ¹⁸O values. Seawater circulation in the lower basalts may have been partly restricted by the greater number of relatively impermeable massive lava flows below about 230 m sub-basement. These flows may have helped to seal off lower basalts from through-flowing seawater.  相似文献