A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

近岸海域大型水母来源与迁移路径分析——以红沿河电厂海域为例     

孙雪  魏皓  张海彦  王彦涛  张广跃  刘汉霖 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(6):1281-1291

近岸海域水母暴发可导致滨海火/核电厂取水口堵塞,对电厂安全运行造成潜在威胁。寻找水母源地及其迁移路径是水母治理的基础。本文基于拉格朗日质点追踪方法(LTRANS)建立反向追踪模型,并结合水母生态学特性对2015年6—9月聚集在红沿河电厂海域的大型水母进行溯源,获得水母源地及迁移路径,可以为螅状体栖息地寻找和水母拦截打捞提供依据,对近岸海域水母灾害防治具有重要指导意义。溯源结果表明:(1)红沿河电厂及其邻近海域的水母可能来自多个不同源区,辽东湾西部、北部及电厂南北两侧等海域的水母均有可能迁移至电厂附近;(2)受水温和环流影响,6—9月期间到达电厂附近的水母主要源区及迁移路径不同,早期出现在电厂海域的水母很可能是局地产生的,而7—9月持续的高风险水母灾害则主要取决于渤海不同源区水母的物理聚集;(3)根据水母的主要迁移路径,建议在电厂取水口约15km的海域设置一条封闭监测断面,对水母进行实时监测;在距离取水口约30km的外侧海域设置一条调查断面,于7月初至8月中旬,每5天进行一次定点拖网调查。此外,在距离电厂取水口15—20km的西南方向上,对水母进行拦截打捞可大大降低水母入侵风险。  相似文献   

基于GPT2w模型化加权平均温度反演可降水量     

翟树峰  吕志平  李林阳  吕浩  邝英才  王方超 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(7):733-737

提出一种基于GPT2w模型化加权平均温度反演大气可降水量的方法，并分析附加系统偏差改正的模型化加权平均温度对可降水量的影响。结果表明，基于GPT2w模型化加权平均温度反演的大气可降水量的精度与基于Bevis公式计算的加权平均温度反演的大气可降水量的精度相当；对GPT2w模型化加权平均温度进行系统偏差改正后，大气可降水量的精度有一定改善，但改善率不到1%。  相似文献   

新时代厦门海洋经济发展地方立法初探          下载免费PDF全文

徐艺丹  孔昊  侯昱廷 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(9):96

进入新时代以来,海洋经济已成为国民经济的重要增长极。厦门市作为首批海洋经济创新发展示范区,可以利用地方立法权进行体制创新,以法律手段解决海洋产业发展中的问题。文章基于厦门海洋经济发展的大背景下,结合海洋经济发展所取得的成果、面临的挑战等,对立法进行可行性分析,为解决厦门海洋经济发展不平衡不充分、部分传统产业持续下行和海洋高新产业发展不足等问题并提出以下立法建议:①明确海洋经济的发展定位;②形成规划体系及结构布局;③建立激励机制和配套措施;④形成金融支持服务体系;⑤制定协调发展的保障性措施;⑥明确对台合作及国际化发展的内容。  相似文献   

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于经验模态分解和小波分解估算海气通量涡相关计算中的截断时间尺度     

姜浩  赵中阔  樊伟  宋金宝 《海洋与湖沼》2018,49(6):1138-1150

基于时长38天的海表风场实测数据,应用经验模态分解(EmpiricalModeDecomposition,EMD)和小波分解(Wavelet Decomposition, WD)这两种数据处理方法首先对涡相关法中的截断时间尺度(CutoffTimescale,CTS)进行估算,结果显示:基于EMD与WD方法估算出的CTS一般都在40秒左右(EMD的结果略小),远远小于传统涡相关法中CTS的取值(固定为10分钟),且EMD和WD的使用使得每一段数据都能够根据自身的湍流特点而获得合适的CTS; EMD方法和WD方法有效的去除了计算结果中的非湍部分,且对通量传输方向的刻画也更加合理,极大提高了通量的计算精度,所得通量与传统方法计算的通量偏差平均值高达45%;研究还对EMD和WD的优缺点进行了对比分析,结果表明EMD相比于WD有更高的自主性,而WD对信号的分离程度则更高。  相似文献   

量子无线通信技术在海洋环境监测中的应用     

李浩  任宇辉  刘凤娇 《海洋科学》2018,42(2):94-98

以量子技术为基础,利用光子基本粒子的量子纠缠原理,由量子态携带在线实时海洋环境监测数据信息,构建基于量子无线通信的海洋环境监测系统。该系统在无线通信中可确保数据的安全性、系统性、及时性和准确性,提高信息化和灵活化水平,可为海洋环境规划、环境管理、环境治理等提供全面安全可靠的监测数据。  相似文献   

Dissolved organic matter in surface runoff in the Loess Plateau of China: The role of rainfall events and land-use     

Zhongwu Li  Hao Peng  Binggeng Xie  Chun Liu  Xiaodong Nie  Danyang Wang  Mei Huang  Haibing Xiao  Lin Shi  Xuqin Zhang  Jieyu Jiang 《水文研究》2020,34(6):1446-1459

Exploring the chemical characterization of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is important for understanding the fate of laterally transported organic matter in watersheds. We hypothesized that differences in water-extractable organic matter (WEOM) in soils of varying land uses and rainfall events may significantly affect the quality and the quantity of stream DOM. To test our hypotheses, characteristics of rainfall-runoff DOM and WEOM of source materials (topsoil from different land uses and gullies, as well as typical vegetation) were investigated at two adjacent catchments in the Loess Plateau of China, using ultraviolet–visible absorbance and excitation emission matrix fluorescence with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). Results indicated that land-use types may significantly affect the chemical composition of soil WEOM, including its aromaticity, molecular weight, and degree of humification. The PARAFAC analysis demonstrated that the soils and stream water were dominated by terrestrial/allochthonous humic-like substances and microbial transformable humic-like fluorophores. Shifts in the fluorescence properties of stream DOM suggested a pronounced change in the relative proportion of allochthonous versus autochthonous material under different rainfall patterns and land uses. For example, high proportions of forestland could provide more allochthonous DOM input. This study highlights the relevance of soils and hydrological dynamics on the composition and fluxes of DOM issuing from watersheds. The composition of DOM in soils was influenced by land-use type. Precipitation patterns influenced the proportion of terrestrial versus microbial origins of DOM in surface runoff. Contributions of allochthonous, terrestrially derived DOM inputs were highest from forested landscapes.  相似文献   

开孔率对明基床上开孔沉箱波浪反射系数影响的数值研究     

蔡郁  孙大鹏  赵沛泓  吴浩 《海洋工程》2018,36(5):30-37

开孔率是开孔沉箱波浪反射系数的重要影响因素,迄今为止关于开孔沉箱的物模试验研究成果(包括《防波堤设计与施工规范》)中,开孔率μ通常以线性关系反映在开孔沉箱波浪反射系数的计算关系式中,适用范围为0.2~0.4。但当μ0.2或μ0.4时,开孔率μ对波浪反射系数Kr的影响规律尚需进一步的研究探讨。现借助二维数值波浪水槽,在扩大了的开孔率取值范围内,模拟不规则波与可渗明基床上开孔沉箱的相互作用。结果表明:在0.2≤μ≤0.4的范围内,用线性关系描述开孔率μ对波浪反射系数Kr的影响是合适的;在μ0.4时,数模值和物模试验拟合的经验关系式的趋势是一致的;在μ0.2时,开孔沉箱反射系数K_r随开孔率μ的减小而增大,用物模试验拟合的经验关系式及《防波堤设计与施工规范》中计算公式的线性关系来描述开孔率μ对反射系数K_r的影响是不恰当的。研究成果对开孔沉箱消浪机理的深入认识和开孔沉箱结构的优化设计具有重要意义。  相似文献   

Has the development of FDI and foreign trade contributed to China’s CO2 emissions? An empirical study with provincial panel data     

Yu Hao  Yi-Ming Liu 《Natural Hazards》2015,76(2):1079-1091

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