A nine-step approach for developing and implementing an “agricultural drought risk management plan”; case study: Alamut River basin in Qazvin,Iran     

Fatehi Marj  Ahmad  Hosseini Hossein Abadi  Farzad 《Natural Hazards》2020,102(3):1187-1205

Occurrence of drought, as an inevitable natural climate feature, cannot be ceased while happening. However, costs of the consequences could be alleviated using mature scientific integrated approaches. To reduce the amount of damage, it is required to provide “Contingency” and “Mitigation” action plans. For this reason, development of efficient operating instructions for various regions based on weather conditions and field studies is needed as well as having a sophisticated understanding of socioeconomic situations. This paper describes an approach to provide the first national agricultural drought risk management plan for a river basin in Iran country as a pilot. The study lasted for 3 years as a national technical research project for the “soil conservation and watershed management research institute.” To reach the objectives, besides holding workshops and specialized think-tank meetings, field researches were done. Based on the socioeconomic data sources in the basin and the results of meetings by participation of local managers and residents, the final plan was developed. Moreover, in order to carry out this research, different climatic, agricultural and local information were collected in the watershed. In the next steps, potential risks and vulnerabilities of various agricultural sectors due to the hazard were evaluated. In this study, a nine-step approach to develop an agricultural drought risk management plan proposing different scientific–managerial phases based on the latest experts’ opinions, released international scientific best practices, and existing conditions governing the region was followed. With respect to the average income of US$ one million from agriculture and animal husbandry in the river basin, total drought loss varies from US$ 86,000 to US$ 258,000 for a range of light to very intense drought conditions, respectively. The setup of these nine executive phases defined monitoring, forecasting, and warning steps in working teams and managed the subprograms in partnership with stakeholders and decision-makers to mitigate the rate of drought damage from 30 to 47% (depending on the severity of the drought condition).

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An Introduction to MODISI and SCMOD Methods for Correction of the MODIS Snow Assessment Algorithm   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mohammad Reza Mobasheri  Hossein Shafizadeh Moghadam  Siavosh Shayan 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2010,38(4):674-685

Detection, monitoring and precise assessment of the snow covered regions is an important issue. Snow cover area and consequently the amount of runoff generated from snowmelt have a significant effect on water supply management. To precisely detect and monitor the snow covered area we need satellite images with suitable spatial and temporal resolutions where we usually lose one for the other. In this study, products of two sensors MODIS and ASTER both on board of TERRA platform having low and high spatial resolution respectively were used. The objective of the study was to modify the snow products of MODIS by using simultaneous images of ASTER. For this, MODIS snow index image with high temporal resolution were compared with that of ASTER, using regression and correlation analysis. To improve NDSI index two methods were developed. The first method generated from direct comparison of ASTER averaged NDSI with those of MODIS (MODISI). The second method generated by dividing MODIS NDSI index into 10 codes according to their percentage of surface cover and then compared the results with the difference between ASTER averaged and MODIS snow indices (SCMOD). Both methods were tested against some 16 MODIS pixels. It is found that the precision of the MODISI method was more than 96%. This for SCMOD was about 98%. The RMSE of both methods were as good as 0.02.  相似文献   

Location of Areas Prone to Flood Spreading Using GIS (Ilam Province,Iran)     

Nourollah Teimouri  Derikvand  Ehsan  Kharazi  Hossein Ghorbanizadeh  Eslami  Hossein  Jafari  Mohammad Reza 《Water Resources》2020,47(3):421-429

Water Resources - The present study aimed to locate the areas prone to flood spreading in order to manage surface water resources. Therefore, the information layers of slope, land capability,...  相似文献   

Seismic reliability assessment and the nonergodicity in the modelling parameter uncertainties     

Fatemeh Jalayer  Hossein Ebrahimian 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(5):434-457

Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, the limit state excursion due to this type of uncertainty may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with the occurrence of each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related to ground motion representation by employing recorded ground motions together with modelling uncertainties is not a trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously by the authors, employs the structural response to recorded ground motion as data in order to update prescribed seismic fragility models. Robust fragility can be extremely efficient for considering also the structural modelling uncertainties by creating a dataset of one-to-one assignments of structural model realizations and as-recorded ground motions. This can reduce the computational effort by more than 1 order of magnitude. However, it should be kept in mind that the fragility concept itself is based on the underlying assumption of Poisson-type renewal. Using the concept of updated robust reliability, considering both the uncertainty in ground motion representation based on as-recorded ground motion and non ergodic modelling uncertainties, the error introduced through structural reliability assessment by using the robust fragility is quantified. It is shown through specific application to an existing RC frame that this error is quite small when the product of the time interval and the standard deviation of failure rate is small and is on the conservative side.  相似文献   

Assessment of geomorphological bank evolution of the alluvial threshold rivers based on entropy concept parameters     

Azadeh Gholami  Majid Mohammadian  Amir Hossein Zaji  Bahram Gharabaghi 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(7):856-872

The complex stream bank profiles in alluvial channels and rivers that are formed after reaching equilibrium has been a popular topic of research for many geomorphologists and river engineers. The entropy theory has recently been successfully applied to this problem. However, the existing methods restrict the further application of the entropy parameter to determine the cross-section slope of the river banks. To solve this limitation, we introduce a novel approach in the extraction of the equation based on the calculation of the entropy parameter (λ) and the transverse slope of the bank profile at threshold channel conditions. The effects of different hydraulic and geometric parameters are evaluated on a variation of the entropy parameter. Sensitivity analysis on the parameters affecting the entropy parameter shows that the most effective parameter on the λ-slope multiplier is the maximum slope of the bank profile and the dimensionless lateral distance of the river banks.  相似文献   

Impact of hydrogeomorphic processes on ecological functions of brown trout habits     

M. R. Majdzadeh Tabatabai  R. Mousavi Nadushan  S. Hashemi 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(8):1757-1770

In recent decades, due to river regulations and their impact on river morphology, brown trout populations have been declining along Lar River downstream of Lar Dam located near Tehran, Iran. Considering the recent water scarcity in the country, development of river habitat assessment models seems necessary. Therefore, in this research, an analytically applied approach is adopted to evaluate brown trout habitat by creating a relation among the hydrologic, hydraulic, geomorphic and ecologic processes. After field survey, dimensionless shear stress of the stream flow thresholds including environmental flow, bankfull flow, surface and subsurface sediment flow thresholds was calculated for Lar, Dalichay and Sefidab Rivers using Shields formula. Then, by considering the dimensionless shear stress ranges of the stream flow thresholds, functional flows ranges and duration were calculated together with ecological efficiency of the cross sections. In addition, effects of annual water yield and entrenchment ratio of the cross sections on habitat functionality were also worked out as a result of which an exponential interaction was developed between the dimensionless shear stress and discharge. Results show that an increase in functional flows ranges and duration, together with rising of ecological efficiency, is directly proportional to an increase in median bed sediment size, entrenchment ratio and annual water yield. Therefore, flow regime, cross-sectional geometry, water-surface slope and bed sediment size could be effective on the ecological functions of the brown trout’s life cycle and functionality of river flow.  相似文献   

An integrated object-based image analysis and CA-Markov model approach for modeling land use/land cover trends in the Sarab plain     

Amin Naboureh  Mohammad Hossein Rezaei Moghaddam  Bakhtiar Feizizadeh  Thomas Blaschke 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(12):259

The present paper is an attempt to integrate a semi-automated object-based image analysis (OBIA) classification framework and a cellular automata-Markov model to study land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Land use maps for the Sarab plain in Iran for the years 2000, 2006, and 2014 were created from Landsat satellite data, by applying an OBIA classification using the normalized difference vegetation index, salinity index, moisture stress index, soil-adjusted vegetation index, and elevation and slope indicators. The classifications yielded overall accuracies of 91, 93, and 94% for 2000, 2006, and 2014, respectively. Finally, using the transition matrix, the spatial distribution of land use was simulated for 2020. The results of the study revealed that the number of orchards with irrigated agriculture and dry-farm agriculture in the Sarab plain is increasing, while the amount of bare land is decreasing. The results of this research are of great importance for regional authorities and decision makers in strategic land use planning.  相似文献   

Paleoenvironment of geomorphic surfaces of an alluvial fan in the eastern Isfahan,Iran, in the light of micromorphology and clay mineralogy     

Omid Bayat  Hamidreza Karimzadeh  Alireza Karimi  Mostafa Karimian Eghbal  Hossein Khademi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(4):91

Alluvial fans are one of the most important landforms in geomorphological and paloenvironmental studies. The objective of this study was the application of clay mineral assemblages and micromorphological properties of the studied paleosols in the geomorphic surfaces of an alluvial fan in the eastern Isfahan as proxies for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic changes. Micromorphology, X-ray diffraction, and scanning electron microscopy approaches were used to study the representative pedons. The results indicated that the illuviation process in the calcareous soils of the arid regions of the eastern Isfahan was probably in response to Quaternary moist conditions. There was no significant difference between clay coating properties of the studied relict and buried paleosols. Clay mineralogical study suggested that kaolinite and illite were inherited from the parent materials, while smectite and palygorskite were formed in the soil environment. Paleoargillic horizon was characterized by smectite and calcic (especially the calcrete) horizons were dominated by palygorskite. Palygorskite was accumulated by both neoformation and illuviation processes. High clay content, high intensity of smectite peak, and activity of the illuviation process in paleoargillic horizon demonstrated the seasonality of climate (rainfall) even in the moist periods of Quaternary in Central Iran. Clay mineralogical assemblages suggested a trend of increasing environmental aridity in the study area. This study, therefore, highlighted the role of clay mineralogical investigations in arid lands’ geomorphological and paleoenvironmental researches.  相似文献   

3D geomechanical modeling and estimating the compaction and subsidence of Fahlian reservoir formation (X-field in SW of Iran)     

Ali Ranjbar  Hossein Hassani  Kourosh Shahriar 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(5):116

A geomechanical model can reveal the mechanical behavior of rocks and be used to manage the reservoir programs in a better mode. Fluid pressure will be reduced during hydrocarbon production from a reservoir. This reduction of pressure will increase the effective stress due to overburden sediments and will cause porous media compaction and surface subsidence. In some oil fields, the compacting reservoir can support oil and gas production. However, the phenomena can also cause the loss of wells and reduced production and also cause irreparable damage to the surface structures and affect the surrounding environment. For a detailed study of the geomechanical behavior of a hydrocarbon field, a 3D numerical model to describe the reservoir geomechanical characteristics is essential. During this study, using available data and information, a coupled fluid flow-geomechanic model of Fahlian reservoir formation in X-field in SW of Iran was constructed to estimate the amount of land subsidence. According to the prepared model, in this field, the maximum amount of the vertical stress is 110 MPa and the maximum amount of the horizontal stress is 94 MPa. At last, this model is used for the prediction of reservoir compaction and subsidence of the surface. The maximum value of estimated ground subsidence in the study equals to 29 mm. It is considered that according to the obtained values of horizontal and vertical movement in the wall of different wells, those movements are not problematic for casing and well production and also the surrounding environment.  相似文献   

Experimental study of headcut erosion in cohesive soils under different consolidation types and hydraulic parameters   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hossein Babazadeh  Masoumeh Ashourian  Mahmood Shafai-Bajestan 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(12):438

Headcut is a change in stream channel elevation, where there is concentrated flow. Most of the past studies focus on non-cohesive soils, although many problems on the streams occur because of cohesive beds and banks. In this study, eight samples of cohesive soils, with a different composition of silt and clay, for different waterfall heights and flow velocity under long- and short-term natural consolidation conditions were tested. In one of the tests, a sand layer was settled on the headcut bed to investigate its impact on headcut erosion. By increasing clay content, the headcut will remain vertical as it moves backward. Result showed that the effect of clay content reduction was more noticeable under the long-term consolidation condition. In general, the effect of clay percentage variation on the measured parameters is much higher than the effects of waterfall height or flow velocity, and the effect of consolidation type and adding a sand layer on the measured values is much higher than the effect of clay percentage variation on the waterfall height and flow velocity.  相似文献