A regional real-time debris-flow warning system for the District of North Vancouver, Canada   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Matthias Jakob  T. Owen  T. Simpson 《Landslides》2012,9(2):165-178

Engineered (structural) debris-flow mitigation for all creeks with elements at risk and subject to debris flows is often outside of the financial capability of the regulating government, and heavy task-specific taxation may be politically undesirable. Structural debris-flow mitigation may only be achieved over long (decadal scale) time periods. Where immediate structural mitigation is cost-prohibitive, an interim solution can be identified to manage residual risk. This can be achieved by implementing a debris-flow warning system that enables residents to reduce their personal risk for loss of life through timely evacuation. This paper describes Canada??s first real-time debris-flow warning system which has been operated for 2 years for the District of North Vancouver. The system was developed based on discriminant function analyses of 20 hydrometric input variables consisting of antecedent rainfall and storm rainfall intensities for a total of 63 storms. Of these 27 resulted in shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, while 36 storms were sampled that did not reportedly result in debris flows. The discriminant function analysis identified as the three most significant variables: the 4-week antecedent rainfall, the 2-day antecedent rainfall, and the 48-h rainfall intensity during the landslide-triggering storm. Discriminant functions were developed and tested for robustness against a nearby rain gauge dataset. The resulting classification functions provide a measure for the likelihood of debris-flow initiation. Several system complexities were added to render the classification functions into a usable and defensible warning system. This involved the addition of various functionality criteria such as not skipping warning levels, providing sufficient warning time before debris flows would occur, and hourly adjustment of actual rainfall vs. predicted rainfall since predicted rainfall is not error-free. After numerous iterations that involved warning threshold and cancelation refinements and further model calibrations, an optimal solution was found that best matches the actual debris-flow data record. Back-calculation of the model??s 21-year record confirmed that 76% of all debris flows would have occurred during warning or severe warning levels. Adding the past 2 years of system operation, this percentage increases marginally to 77%. With respect to the District of North Vancouver boundaries, all debris flows occur during Warning and Severe Warnings emphasizing the validity of the system to the area for which it was intended. To operate the system, real-time rainfall data are obtained from a rain gauge in the District of North Vancouver. Antecedent rainfall is automatically calculated as a sliding time window for the 4-week and 2-day periods every hour. The predicted 48-h storm rainfall data are provided by the Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Centre at the Earth and Ocean Science Department at the University of British Columbia and is updated every hour as rainfall is recorded during a given storm. The warning system differentiates five different stages: no watch, watch level 1 (the warning level is unlikely to be reached), watch level 2 (the warning level is likely to be reached), warning, and severe warning. The debris-flow warning system has operated from October 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010 and October 1, 2010 and April 30, 2011. Fortunately, we were able to evaluate model performance because the exact times of debris flows during November 2009 and January 2010 were recorded. In both cases, the debris flows did not only occur during the warning level but coincided with peaks in the warning graphs. Furthermore, four debris flows occurred during a warning period in November 2009 in the Metro Vancouver watershed though their exact time of day is unknown. The warning level was reached 13 times, and in four of these cases, debris flows were recorded in the study area. One debris flow was recorded during watch II level. There was no severe warning during the 2 years of operation. The current warning level during the wet season (October to April) is accessible via District of North Vancouver??s homepage (www.dnv.org) and by automated telephone message during the rainy season.  相似文献   

Incubation,hatching and survival of eggs of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in spawning redds influenced by groundwater     

Svein Jakob Saltveit  Åge Brabrand 《Limnologica》2013,43(5):325-331

Many west coastal and northern Norwegian rivers run through deep, confined valleys with permeable layers of glacial and alluvial deposits. Groundwater flows through these permeable layers and enter lakes and rivers as underwater seepage and springs. Groundwater inflow to inland Norwegian rivers may constitute 40–100% of total water discharge during low flow periods in late summer and winter. Juvenile salmonids may take advantage of groundwater upwellings and actively seek out such patches. In regulated rivers groundwater influx may create refuges during low flow or hydropeaking episodes. The importance of groundwater for salmon redd site selection and egg survival is also clear, although less known and documented in regulated rivers.Eggs of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are deposited in redds in river bed gravels lacking fine sediments and with high oxygen levels. Egg development is therefore dependent on the interaction of a number of environmental factors such as groundwater influx, oxygen and temperature. Atlantic salmon in the regulated River Suldalslågen, Western Norway, spawn relatively late compared to other Norwegian rivers, with a peak in early January. Newly emerged fry are found from the end of May to the beginning of June, i.e. “swim up” one month earlier than expected using models for egg and alevin development and river water temperatures. The most plausible explanation is that groundwater has a higher and more stable temperature than surface river water. In field experiments, fertilized salmon eggs were placed in boxes close to natural spawning redds in the river bed at sites influenced and those not influenced by groundwater. A difference of up to 40 days in 50% hatching was found, and “swim up” occurred at the end of May in boxes influenced by groundwater.Preliminary studies have revealed that groundwater also plays an important role in survival of salmon eggs in the River Suldalslågen when dewatered in winter. Eggs placed in boxes in groundwater seepage areas during winter in the dewatered river bed survived even when covered by ice and snow. The survival from fertilization until 30 April, one month before hatching, was 91%, the same survival as found for eggs placed in boxes in the wetted river bed. However, mortality from fertilization to hatching was higher compared to the eggs placed in wetted river bed, 57 and 91% respectively.Groundwater creates a horizontal and vertical mosaic of temperatures in spawning redd areas leading to potentially greater variation in spawning sites, time of hatching and “swim up”. This is likely to increase egg survival during low flow periods in regulated rivers. In conclusion, the interaction between groundwater and surface river water should therefore be considered when managing fish populations in regulated rivers.  相似文献   

High resolution re-analysis for the Baltic Sea region during 1965–2005 period     

Andres Luhamaa  Kaarel Kimmel  Aarne Männik  Rein Rõõm 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(3-4):727-738

Regional reanalysis database BaltAn65+ comprising meteorological data for Baltic Sea region for the time period 1965–2005 is described. For data assimilation and hindcasts, the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM 7.1.4 is applied, with 11 km horizontal and 60-layer vertical resolution. Reanalysis includes three-dimensional weather analysis data. Standard surface observations and meteorological soundings together with ship and buoy measurements from WMO observational network are used in analysis. Boundary fields are obtained from ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis. The BaltAn65+ can be considered as a regional refinement of ERA-40 for Baltic Sea region, providing the historical weather and climate data with enhanced spatial resolution, which is main motivation for creation of this novel reanalysis database.  相似文献   

Geodemographics as a tool for targeting neighbourhoods in public health campaigns   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jakob Petersen  Maurizio Gibin  Paul Longley  Pablo Mateos  Philip Atkinson  David Ashby 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2011,13(2):173-192

Geodemographics offers the prospects of integrating, modelling and mapping health care needs and other health indicators that are useful for targeting neighbourhoods in public health campaigns. Yet reports about this application domain has to date been sporadic. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential of a bespoke geodemographic system for neighbourhood targeting in an inner city public health authority, Southwark Primary Care Trust, London. This system, the London Output Area Classification (LOAC), is compared to six other geodemographic systems from both governmental and commercial sources. The paper proposes two new indicators for assessing the performance of geodemographic systems for neighbourhood targeting based on local hospital demand data. The paper also analyses and discusses the utility of age- and sex standardisation of geodemographic profiles of health care demand.  相似文献   

The landslide response of alpine basins to post-Little Ice Age glacial thinning and retreat in southwestern British Columbia     

Kris Holm  Michael Bovis  Matthias Jakob   《Geomorphology》2004,57(3-4):201-216

The role of post-Little Ice Age (LIA) Neoglacial retreat on landslide activity is investigated in 19 alpine basins along the upper Lillooet River Valley, British Columbia. We examine how Neoglacial scouring and glacial recession have modified hillslope form and slope stability, and construct a decision-making flowchart to identify landslide hazards associated with glacial retreat. This work is based on field mapping, GIS analysis, statistical associations between landslides and terrain attributes, and a comparison between Neoglaciated and non-Neoglaciated terrain within each basin.The bedrock landslide response to glacial retreat varies appreciably according to lithology and the extent of glacial scour below the LIA trimline. Valleys carved in weak Quaternary volcanics show significant erosional oversteepening and contain deep-seated slope movement features, active rock fall, rock slides, and rock avalanches near glacial trimlines. Basins in stronger granitic rock rarely show increased bedrock instability resulting from post-LIA retreat, except for shallow-seated rock slides along some trimlines and failures on previously unstable slopes. In surficial materials, landslides associated with post-LIA retreat originate in till or colluvium, as debris slides or debris avalanches, and are concentrated along lateral moraines or glacial trimlines.Significant spatial association was also observed between recent catastrophic failures, gravitational slope deformation, and slopes that were oversteepened then debuttressed by glacial erosion. Eight out of nine catastrophic rock slope failures occurred just above glacial trimlines and all occurred in areas with a previous history of deep-seated gravitational slope movement, implying that this type of deformation is a precursor to catastrophic detachment.  相似文献   

Simulation of the hydrogeologic effects of oil-shale mining on the neighbouring wetland water balance: case study in north-eastern Estonia     

Andres Marandi  Enn Karro  Maile Polikarpus  Argo Jõeleht  Marko Kohv  Tiit Hang  Helen Hiiemaa 《Hydrogeology Journal》2013,21(7):1581-1591

The water balance of wetlands plays an integral role in their function. Developments adjacent to wetlands can affect their water balance through impacts on groundwater flow and increased discharge in the area, and they can cause lowering of the wetland water table. A 430 km² area was selected for groundwater modelling to asses the effect of underground mining on the water balance of wetlands in north-eastern Estonia. A nature conservation area (encompassing Selisoo bog) is within 3 km of an underground oil-shale mine. Two future mining scenarios with different areal extents of mining were modeled and compared to the present situation. Results show that the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface is of critical importance to potential wetland dewatering as a result of mining. Significant impact on the Selisoo bog water balance will be caused by the approaching mine but there will be only minor additional impacts from mining directly below the bog. The major impact will arise before that stage, when the underground mine extension reaches the border of the nature conservation area; since the restriction of activities in this area relates to the ground surface, the conservation area’s border is not sufficiently protective in relation to underground development.  相似文献   

Using the anchoring device of a comet lander to determine surface mechanical properties   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Norbert I. Kömle  Andrew J. Ball  Günter Kargl  Jakob Stöcker  Markus Thiel  Harjinder S. Jolly  Masarapauya Dziruni  John C. Zarnecki 《Planetary and Space Science》1997,45(12):1515-1538

Owing to the low surface gravity of the Rosetta target comet 46P/Wirtanen, a means of anchoring the Rosetta Lander to the cometary surface will be necessary. This task can be accomplished by firing an anchor into the cometary soil immediately after touchdown to prevent a rebound of the spacecraft from the surface or subsequent ejection by other forces, and to allow for mechanical activities (drilling, etc.) at the landing site.

The rationale for anchoring is examined, based on estimates of the main forces likely to act on the spacecraft after landing. We report on the development of an anchoring device using a pyrotechnic gas generator as a power source and an instrumented anchor.

In addition to the anchoring function, which is the primary purpose of this system, the integration of acceleration and temperature sensors into the tip offers the possibility to determine some important material properties of the cometary surface layer. The accelerometer is designed to measure the deceleration history of the projectile and is thus expected to give information on how the material properties (in particular strength) change within the penetrated layer(s), while the temperature sensor will measure temperature variations at the depth at which the anchor finally comes to rest. As the mechanical properties of the material are not known, it is difficult to predict the final depth of the anchor with any great certainty, but it may well be greater than that reached by any other of the lander's instruments.

The instrumented anchor will be part of the MUPUS experiment, selected to form part of the Rosetta Lander payload. We report on results of laboratory simulations of anchor penetration performed at the Institut für Weltraumforschung, Graz, and compare these with models of projectile penetration. The value of the results expected from the penetrometry experiment in the context of an improved understanding of cometary processes is discussed.  相似文献   

Cross-sectoral integration in regional adaptation to climate change via participatory scenario development     

Jakob Wachsmuth 《Climatic change》2015,132(3):387-400

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A review of remote sensing methods for glacier mass balance determination   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Jonathan L. Bamber  Andres Rivera   《Global and Planetary Change》2007,59(1-4):138

Airborne and satellite remote sensing is the only practical approach for deriving a wide area, regional assessment of glacier mass balance. A number of remote sensing approaches are possible for inferring the mass balance from some sort of proxy estimate. Here, we review the key methods relevant, in particular to Andean glaciers, discussing their strengths and weaknesses, and data sets that could be more fully exploited. We also consider future satellite missions that will provide advances in our observational capabilities. The methods discussed include observation of elevation changes, estimation of ice flux, repeat measurement of changes in spatial extent, snowline elevation and accumulation–ablation area ratio estimation. The methods are illustrated utilising a comprehensive review of results obtained from a number of studies of South American glaciers, focusing specifically on the Patagonian Icefields. In particular, we present some new results from Glaciar Chico, Southern Patagonian Icefield, Chile, where a variety of different satellite and in-situ data have been combined to estimate mass balance using a geodetic or elevation change approach over about a 25 yr period.  相似文献   

沉积物和悬浮颗粒物在岩溶水系统污染物衰减与运移中的作用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nico Goldscheider  Michiel Pronk  Jakob Zopfi 《中国岩溶》2009,28(2):113-121

本文讨论了沉积物和悬浮颗粒物/胶体在岩溶水系统污染物衰减与运移中的作用,介绍了关于瑞士某岩溶水系统内颗粒物与微生物污染间关系的实验结果。该实验场包括一个接纳农田排水的落水洞及与其相连的两个泉,其中一个泉是供水水源地。利用便携式粒子计实时监测泉水中颗粒分布的变化情况,同时对浊度、总有机碳和其它参数进行连续监测;并对水中E型大肠菌群进行了分析。在暴雨过后,观测到了浊度的两种不同表现:即泉排泄量增加时,浊度最初表现为脉状水动力条件下岩溶系统内沉积物的二次运移;几天后观测到的浊度则表明水已从落水洞到了泉口,常常具有高的总有机碳、硝酸盐及E型大肠菌群。颗粒分布分析结果差异更大:早期的浊度是不同粒径颗粒物的混合,而后期的浊度更多是由较细颗粒构成,因为大颗粒物已沉积在落水洞到泉口之间的岩溶系统内。E型大肠菌群与0.9～1.5 μm颗粒物之间具有很好的相关性。因而较细颗粒的相对增加可应用于微生物污染 “早期预报系统”。除了水污染,颗粒分还可以帮助我们研究岩溶环境的其它问题,如土壤侵蚀。   相似文献