Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models     

Bruce T. Anderson  Jeff R. Knight  Mark A. Ringer  Clara Deser  Adam S. Phillips  Jin-Ho Yoon  Annalisa Cherchi 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(7-8):1461-1475

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.  相似文献   

Experimental constraints on storage conditions in the chemically zoned phonolitic magma chamber of the Laacher See volcano     

Jasper Berndt  François Holtz  Jürgen Koepke 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2001,140(4):469-486

Phase relations of three samples of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) have been determined experimentally as a function of temperature (760 to 880 °C), pressure (200, 300 and 400 MPa), water content of the melt and oxygen fugacity (ƒO₂). The crystallization experiments were carried out at ƒO₂=NNO buffer and at NNO=+ 2.3 log units. The melt water contents varied between 6 and more than 8 wt% H₂O, corresponding to water-undersaturated and water saturated conditions respectively. The synthetic products are compared to the natural phases to constrain pre-eruptive conditions in the Laacher See magma chamber. The major phases occurring in the LST have been reproduced. The stability of hauyne is favoured at high ƒO₂ (≈NNO + 2.3). The CaO contents in melt and plagioclase synthesized under water-saturated conditions are significantly higher than in the natural phases, implying that most of the differentiation of the phonolites took place under water-undersaturated conditions. However, this does not exclude the presence of a S-, Cl- and CO₂-rich fluid phase in the upper parts of the magma chamber. The phase relationships and the TiO₂ contents of melts show that the temperature was lower than 760 °C in the upper part of the magma column (probably down to 720 °C in the most differentiated levels) and that temperatures above 840–860 °C prevailed in the lower part. The variation of the X _Mg of ferromagnesian minerals observed in both natural and experimental phases reflects the strong variations in ƒO₂ in the lower magma chamber just prior to eruption (probably variation of about 2 log units). The most probable explanation for these ƒO₂ variations is the injection of an oxidized alkali-rich magma, containing Mg-rich phenocrysts, at the base of a chemically zoned and more reduced magma column prior to eruption. Although the amount of injected magma may not have been very important, it was sufficient to change the ƒO₂ conditions locally, explaining the heterogeneous X _Mg of ferromagnesian minerals and the formation of hauyne at the base of the chamber. Received: 30 May 2000 / Accepted: 12 August 2000  相似文献   

A Simplified Basin Model For Simulating Runoff: The Struma River GIS     

C. Gregory Knight  Heejun Chang  Marieta P. Staneva  Deyan Kostov 《The Professional geographer》2001,53(4):533-545

A GIS‐based distributed‐parameter runoff simulation model for the Struma River Basin in southwestern Bulgaria calculates the monthly snow/rain proportion, direct or surface runoff, snow cover and snowmelt, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and total runoff. Simulation during the Bulgarian hydrologic year from November to October was compared with observed runoff data. The model closely replicates mean monthly runoff from climate conditions during the years 1961 –1990 as well as specific years. The simplified GIS model simulates hydrologic processes under limited data availability.  相似文献   

Anhydrous melting and crystallization of peralkaline obsidians     

D. K. Bailey  J. P. Cooper  J. L. Knight 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1974,38(2):653-665

Experimental determinations of the dry liquidus temperatures of two pantellerite, and two pantelleritic trachyte glasses in the pressure range 0–2 kilobars, show minima in the liquidus curves between 0.1 and 0.2 kb. The pantellerite minima are 830°–850° C; the trachyte minima are 920°–940° C. At pressures below the minima a separate vapour phase co-exists with liquid, at higher pressures the intrinsic volatiles are completely soluble in the liquid and the liquidus curves have a positivedT/dP. Similar results have been obtained from a range of other pantelleritic glasses, and together with consistent alkali feldspar compositions (from a wide range of experimental conditions) are indicative of a close approach to equilibrium. The form of the liquidus curves above the minima, if rellecting natural conditions, offers a ready explanation of the near-or super-liquidus aspect of many peralkaline lavas. The temperatures in these anhydrous experiments are 100°–150° C higher than those for similar compositions in the presence of excess water. (Also, in the presence of excess water, the crystallization sequences in the natural glasses are profoundly modified, with pyroxene appearing on the liquidus). At lower pressures, feldspar is the liquidus phase in the dry pantellerites, but is joined by quartz around 1 kb, and superseded by quartz at higher pressures. As pantellerites with quartz phenocrysts are uncommon, low pressure equilibration is perhaps normal in these magmas. Feidspar is the usual liquidus phase in the trachytes, except at very low pressures where it is preceded by iron oxide. Preliminary studies at 5 kb indicate that the pantelleritic and trachytic liquidus curves are converging (in the range 950°–1000° C). Crystallization sequences, and the forms and positions of the solidus curves are therefore of vital importance. These, together with the vapour-present/vapour-absent conditions, are currently under investigation.  相似文献   

The role of hydrogen bonding in the thermal expansion and dehydration of brushite,di-calcium phosphate dihydrate     

P. F.?SchofieldEmail author  K. S.?Knight  J. A. M. van der?Houwen  E.?Valsami-Jones 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2004,31(9):606-624

The unit-cell and atomic parameters of perdeuterated brushite have been extracted from Rietveld analysis of neutron powder diffraction data within the temperature range 4.2 to 470 K. The thermal expansion of brushite is anisotropic, with the largest expansion along the b axis due principally to the effect of the O(1)···D(4) and O(3)···D(2) hydrogen bonds. Expansion along the c axis, influenced by the Ow1···D(5) interwater hydrogen bond, is also large. The high temperature limits for the expansion coefficients for the unit-cell edges a, b and c are 9.7(5) × 10^–6, 3.82(9) × 10^–5 and 5.54(5) × 10^–5 K^–1, respectively, and for the cell volume it is 9.7(1) × 10^–5 K^–1. The angle displays oscillatory variation, and empirical data analysis results in = 1.28(3) × 10^–6sin(0.0105 T) K^–1, within this temperature range. The evolution of the thermal expansion tensor of brushite has been calculated between 50 T 400 K. At 300 K the magnitudes of the principal axes are ₁₁ = 50(6) × 10^{–6 K–1}, ₂₂ = 26.7(7) × 10^–6 K^–1 and ₃₃ = 7.0(5) × 10^–6 K^–1. The intermediate axis, ₂₂, is parallel to b, and using IRE convention for the tensor orthonormal basis, the axes ₁₁ and ₃₃ have directions equal to (–0.228, 0, –0.974) and (–0.974, 0, 0.228) respectively. Under the conditions of these experiments, the onset of dehydration occurred at temperatures above 400 K. Bond valence analysis combined with assessments of the thermal evolution of the bonding within brushite suggests that dehydration is precipitated through instabilities in the chemical environment of the second water molecule.  相似文献   

Challenges of calculating dunefield mobility over the 21st century   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Melanie Knight  David S. G. Thomas  Giles F. S. Wiggs 《Geomorphology》2004,59(1-4):197

Attention has been directed towards both the impacts of future climate change on environmental systems and dunefield activity in the past, but there has been relatively little consideration of potential dune mobility in a future and possibly warmer world. This paper considers the use and limitations of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) (Hadcm3, Hadcm2, CSIRO-mk2b and CGCM1), in combination with simple dune mobility indices to predict the activity of the Kalahari dunefield. It is clear that uncertainties surround GCM resolution and accuracy, mobility index robustness for the calculation of intra-annual dune mobility and data collection for mobility index calibration. Macro-scale studies that look at large areas of the world over long time scales are well suited to GCM and mobility index use, but dune mobility can be variable within a dunefield, and it is the extreme sand transporting events, occurring at high temporal resolutions, that are the most important for short term studies. To investigate intra-annual changes in dune mobility over a specific dunefield techniques such as downscaling, weather generators and probability curve fitting can help provide climate predictions for smaller areas over shorter time frames. However, these methods introduce uncertainty of their own, and they often rely on the accuracy of original GCM predictions or the climate parameter relationships observed at present. Analysis of intra-annual changes also requires mobility indices that can model monthly mobility patterns well, although existing indices have only been used for calculating annual dune mobility potential. When they are used for intra-annual predictions, the lack of lag response between precipitation decreases and the assumed vegetation dieback leads to an exaggerated amplitude pattern of dune mobility throughout the year. Calibration of dune mobility indices to dune mobility observed on the ground is therefore important but is hampered by a lack of observed measurements for individual months. Solutions are available to overcome some of the outlined problems, but they can provide their own set of uncertainties, which combine to further reduce the confidence given to future dune mobility predictions.  相似文献   

Fractionation of the noble metals by physical processes     

Chris Ballhaus  Conny Bockrath  Cora Wohlgemuth-Ueberwasser  Vera Laurenz  Jasper Berndt 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2006,152(6):667-684

During partial melting in the earth’s mantle, the noble metals become fractionated. Os, Ir, Ru, and Rh tend to remain in the mantle residue whereas Pt, Pd, and Re behave mildly incompatible and are sequestered to the silicate melt. There is consensus that sulfide plays a role in the fractionation process; the major noble metal repository in the mantle is sulfide, and most primitive mantle melts are sulfide-saturated when they leave their mantle sources. However, with sulfide–silicate partitioning, the fractionation cannot be modeled properly. All sulfide–silicate partition coefficients are so extremely high that a silicate melt segregating from a mantle source with residual sulfide should be largely platinum-group elements free. We offer a physical alternative to sulfide–silicate chemical partitioning and provide a mechanism of generating a noble metal-rich melt from a sulfide-saturated source: Because sulfide is at least partially molten at asthenospheric temperature, it will behave physically incompatible during melt segregation, and a silicate melt segregating from a mantle residue will entrain molten residual sulfide in suspension and incorporate it in the basaltic pool melt. The noble metal abundances of a basalt then become independent of sulfide–silicate chemical partitioning. They reflect the noble metal abundances in the drained sulfide fraction as well as the total amount of sulfide entrained. Contrary to convention, we suggest that a fertile, sulfide-rich mantle source has more potential to generate a noble metal-enriched basaltic melt than a refractory mantle source depleted by previous partial melting events.  相似文献   

2005年国家自然科学基金批准项目一览表(地球科学部分)     

Pavel Ya. Groisman  Richard W. Knight 《地球科学进展》2006,21(1):85-108

~~2005年国家自然科学基金批准项目一览表(地球科学部分)~~  相似文献   

Deformed graptolites, finite strain and volume loss during cleavage formation in rocks of the taconic slate belt, New York and Vermont, U.S.A.     

Arthur Goldstein  Jonathan Knight  Kari Kimball 《Journal of Structural Geology》1998,20(12):1769-1782

An analysis of graptolites in the Taconic slate belt of eastern New York and western Vermont (U.S.A.) shows that they are nearly ideal strain markers. For the three species used in this study, Orthograptus whitfieldii, Orthograptus calcaratus and Climacograptus bicornis, the spacing of thecae is constant except for the first five or so thecae in the proximal part of the fossil rhabdosome. Further, the thecal apertures are perpendicular to the long axis of the stipe. Observations of the thecal spacing in deformed rocks leads to a determination of extension (e=(l_f−l₀)/l₀) and a measure of the angle between thecal aperture and stipe axis yields a direct determination of angular shear strain. In practice, we find it is most straightforward to use length changes to determine the magnitude of principal strains. In Taconic slates, e₁ ranges from 1.0 to 0.24, e₂ ranges from 0.23 to −0.43 and e₃ ranges from −0.56 to −0.74. Thus, we find that the absolute finite strain in these slates is constrictional at three sites, plane strain at another and a true flattening at only one site. An examination of volume changes based on strain results in determinations of between 81% volume loss and 7% volume gain, with volume losses between 28% and 81% in 9 out of 10 calculations. These conclusions are in accord with previous determinations of volume loss based on reduction spot analyses and are consistent with the observation that pressure dissolution was a common grain scale deformation process in cleavage formation but that these slates lack abundant veins, fibrous overgrowths or other identifiable sites of reprecipitation.  相似文献   

Globalization and global change research     

C. Gregory Knight 《GeoJournal》1998,45(1-2):27-32

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