Land use change under conditions of high population pressure: the case of Java   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

Peter H. Verburg  Tom Veldkamp  Johan Bouma 《Global Environmental Change》1999,9(4):303

A long history of increases in population pressure in Java has caused agricultural land use to expand and intensify. More recent land use changes caused the conversion of prime agricultural land into residential and industrial area. Results of a dynamic, regional-scale, land use change model are presented, defining the spatial distribution of these land use changes. The model is based on multi-scale modelling of the relations between land use and socio-economic and biophysical determinants. Historical validation showed that the model can adequately simulate the pattern of land use change. Future patterns of land use change between 1994 and 2010 are simulated assuming further urbanization. The results suggest that most intensive land use changes will occur in Java's lowland areas.  相似文献   

Estimating ventilation time scales using overturning stream functions     

Bijoy Thompson  Jonas Nycander  Johan Nilsson  Martin Jakobsson  Kristofer Döös 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(6):797-807

A simple method for estimating ventilation time scales from overturning stream functions is proposed. The stream function may be computed using either geometric coordinates or a generalized vertical coordinate, such as potential density (salinity in our study). The method is tested with a three-dimensional circulation model describing an idealized semi-enclosed ocean basin ventilated through a narrow strait over a sill, and the result is compared to age estimates obtained from a passive numerical age tracer. The best result is obtained when using the stream function in salinity coordinates. In this case, the reservoir-averaged advection time obtained from the overturning stream function in salinity coordinates agrees rather well with the mean age of the age tracer, and the corresponding maximum ages agree very well.  相似文献   

Chemical composition and acute toxicity in the water after in situ burning--a laboratory experiment     

Faksness LG  Hansen BH  Altin D  Brandvik PJ 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(1):49-55

The chemical composition and toxicity of a water soluble fraction (WSF) of oil versus the underlying water after in situ burning (ISB), has been studied in a laboratory experiment. A system for allowing water sampling after ISB was developed. Seawater samples and oil were collected prior to and immediately after ISB, and chemical analysis was conducted. The chemical characterization of the water showed that the disappearance of water soluble oil components during ISB was insignificant. Acute toxicity tests with the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus and Microtox® bioassay was performed to establish LC₅₀/EC₅₀ values of the water. The results were compared with regular WAF systems with unburned weathered oil, and indicated no increase in toxicity in the underlying water after ISB.  相似文献   

Inclined lidar observations of boundary layer aerosol particles above the Kongsfjord,Svalbard     

Astrid Lampert  Johan Ström  Christoph Ritter  Roland Neuber  Young Jun Yoon  Nam Yi Chae  Masataka Shiobara 《Acta Geophysica》2012,60(5):1287-1307

An inclined lidar with vertical resolution of 0.4 m was used for detailed boundary layer studies and to link observations at Zeppelin Mountain (474 m) and Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. We report on the observation of aerosol layers directly above the Kongsfjord. On 29 April 2007, a layer of enhanced backscatter was observed in the lowest 25 m above the open water surface. The low depolarization ratio indicated spherical particles. In the afternoon, this layer disappeared. The ultrafine particle concentration at Zeppelin and Corbel station (close to the Kongsfjord) was low. On 1 May 2007, a drying process in the boundary layer was observed. In the morning, the atmosphere up to Zeppelin Mountain showed enhanced values of the backscatter coefficient. Around noon, the top of the highly reflecting boundary layer decreased from 350 to 250 m. The top of the boundary layer observed by lidar was confirmed by radiosonde data.  相似文献   

Uncertainty estimation for operational ocean forecast products—a multi-model ensemble for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea     

Inga Golbeck  Xin Li  Frank Janssen  Thorger Brüning  Jacob W. Nielsen  Vibeke Huess  Johan Söderkvist  Bjarne Büchmann  Simo-Matti Siiriä  Olga Vähä-Piikkiö  Bruce Hackett  Nils M. Kristensen  Harald Engedahl  Ed Blockley  Alistair Sellar  Priidik Lagemaa  Jose Ozer  Sebastien Legrand  Patrik Ljungemyr  Lars Axell 《Ocean Dynamics》2015,65(12):1603-1631

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Effect of algae on flocculation of suspended bed sediments in a large shallow lake. Consequences for ecology and sediment transport processes     

Miguel Angel de Lucas Pardo  Dirk Sarpe  Johan Christian Winterwerp 《Ocean Dynamics》2015,65(6):889-903

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The 2011 International Conference on Cohesive Sediment Transport (INTERCOH 2011)     

Qing He  Johan C. Winterwerp  Andrew James Manning 《Ocean Dynamics》2015,65(7):1047-1049

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Deterministic strong ground motion study for the Sitamarhi area near Bihar–Nepal region     

M. L. Burnwal  A. Burman  P. Samui  D. Maity 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(1):237-251

We explore the challenges of avalanche and debris flow hazard assessment for urban areas exposed in the Sakhalin region. Avalanches are a threat to more than 60 settlements in the region and debris flows to more than 30. Data are provided for avalanche and debris flow events that occurred in the Sakhalin region between 1928 and 2015. In this paper, the method for the design of hazard maps for snow avalanches and debris flows is described, providing the starting point for any planning constraints in general settlement planning schemes. These maps further allow conducting an assessment of avalanche and debris flow risk within a short time period for a larger territory and at minimum cost.  相似文献   

Calibration of Parameter Fields Consisting of Multiple Statistical Populations     

by Gijs M.C.M. Janssen  Johan R. Valstar 《Ground water》2010,48(1):92-105

If a parameter field to be calibrated consists of more than one statistical population, usually not only the parameter values are uncertain, but the spatial distributions of the populations are uncertain as well. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of the multimodal calibration method we proposed recently for the calibration of such fields, as applied to real-world ground water models with several additional stochastic parameter fields. Our method enables the calibration of the spatial distribution of the statistical populations, as well as their spatially correlated parameterization, while honoring the complete prior geostatistical definition of the multimodal parameter field. We illustrate the implications of the method in terms of the reliability of the posterior model by comparing its performance to that of a "conventional" calibration approach in which the positions of the statistical populations are not allowed to change. Information from synthetic calibration runs is used to show how ignoring the uncertainty involved in the positions of the statistical populations not only denies the modeler the opportunity to use the measurement information to improve these positions but also unduly influences the posterior intrapopulation distributions, causes unjustified adjustments to the cocalibrated parameter fields, and results in poorer observation reproduction. The proposed multimodal calibration allows a more complete treatment of the relevant uncertainties, which prevents the abovementioned adverse effects and renders a more trustworthy posterior model.  相似文献   

Epiphytic diatoms as flood indicators   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Johan A. Wiklund  Natalie Bozinovski  Roland I. Hall  Brent B. Wolfe 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,44(1):25-42

The hydroecology of floodplain lakes is strongly regulated by flood events. The threat of climate warming and increasing human activities requires development of scientific methods to quantify changes in the frequency of short-lived flood events, because they remain difficult to identify using conventional paleolimnological and monitoring approaches. We developed an approach to detect floods in sediment records by comparing the abundance and composition of epiphytic diatom communities in flooded and non-flooded ponds of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada, that grew on submerged macrophytes (Potamogeton zosteriformis, P. perfoliatus) and an artificial substrate (polypropylene sheets) during the open-water season of 2005. Analysis of similarity tests showed that epiphytic diatom community composition differs significantly between flooded and non-flooded ponds. After accounting for the “pond effect,” paired comparisons of the three substrates determined that variation in community composition between the artificial substrate and macrophytes was similar to that between the macrophyte taxa. Similarity percentage analysis identified diatom taxa that discriminate between flooded and non-flooded ponds. The relative abundance of ‘strong flood indicator taxa’ was used to construct an event-scale flood record spanning the past 180 years using analyses of sedimentary diatom assemblages from a closed-drainage pond (PAD 5). Results were verified by close agreement with an independent paleoflood record from a nearby flood-prone oxbow pond (PAD 54) and historical records. Comparison of epiphytic diatoms in flooded and non-flooded lakes in this study provides a promising approach to detect changes in flood frequency, and may have applications for reconstructing other pulse-type disturbances such as hurricanes and pollutant spills.  相似文献