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31.
Esther Salazar Dorit Hammerling Xia Wang Bruno Sansó Andrew O. Finley Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69
We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States. 相似文献
32.
Reconstructing fluvial bar surfaces from compound cross‐strata and the interpretation of bar accretion direction in large river deposits 
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下载免费PDF全文 Renato P. Almeida Bernardo T. Freitas Bruno B. Turra Felipe T. Figueiredo André Marconato Liliane Janikian 《Sedimentology》2016,63(3):609-628
The interpretation of fluvial styles from the rock record is based for a significant part on the identification of different types of fluvial bars, characterized by the geometric relationship between structures indicative of palaeocurrent and surfaces interpreted as indicative of bar form and bar accretion direction. These surfaces of bar accretion are the boundaries of flood‐related bar increment elements, which are typically less abundant in outcrops than what would be desirable, particularly in large river deposits in which each flood mobilizes large volumes of sediment, causing flood‐increment boundary surfaces to be widely spaced. Cross‐strata set boundaries, on the other hand, are abundant and indirectly reflect the process of unit bar accretion, inclined due to the combined effect of the unit bar surface inclination and the individual bedform climbing angle, in turn controlled by changes in flow structure caused by local bar‐scale morphology. This work presents a new method to deduce the geometry of unit bar surfaces from measured pairs of cross‐strata and cross‐strata set boundaries. The method can be used in the absence of abundant flood‐increment bounding surfaces; the study of real cases shows that, for both downstream and laterally accreting bars, the reconstructed planes are very similar to measured bar increment surfaces. 相似文献
33.
Corner-point gridding is widely used in reservoir and basin modeling but generally yields approximations in the representation of geological interfaces. This paper introduces an indirect method to generate a hex-dominant mesh conformal to 3D geological surfaces and well paths suitable for finite-element and control-volume finite-element simulations. By indirect, we mean that the method first generates an unstructured tetrahedral mesh whose tetrahedra are then merged into primitives (hexahedra, prisms, and pyramids). More specifically, we focus on determining the optimal set of primitives that can be recombined from a given tetrahedral mesh. First, we detect in the tetrahedral mesh all the feasible volumetric primitives using a pattern-matching algorithm (Meshkat and Talmor Int. J. Numer. Meth. Eng. 49(1-2), 17–30 2000) that we re-visit and extend with configurations that account for degenerated tetrahedra (slivers). Then, we observe that selecting the optimal set of primitives among the feasible ones can be formalized as a maximum weighted independent set problem (Bomze et al. 1999), known to be \(\mathcal {N}\mathcal {P}\)-Complete. We propose several heuristic optimizations to find a reasonable set of primitives in a practical time. All the tetrahedra of each selected primitive are then merged to build the final unstructured hex-dominant mesh. This method is demonstrated on 3D geological models including a faulted and folded model and a discrete fracture network. 相似文献
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